短期经营决策模型的相关范围及其改进

在“决策会计”的理论体系中,通常将决策划分为短期经营决策和长期投资决策两类。现实经济生活中,短期经营决策涉及的不仅是“短期”的影响因素,通常还会涉及到企业的“长期”影响因素。因此,有关短期经营决策的模型需要加以改进,只有放宽“相关范围”的条件,才能做出准确的判断。本文将重点分析研究中短期经营决策模型的“相关范围”,进一步讨论“相关范围”以外的因素对决策模型的影响,提出短期经营决策的改进思路。     

ORGANIZATIONAL DECISION-MAKING AS HIERARCHICAL LEVELS OF DRAMA*

In conducting a longitudinal examination of eight long-term complex decision processes in two Fortune 500 heavy manufacturing companies the authors developed a six-level framework of decision complexity. The levels range from: (1) instantaneous decision choices to (2) decision actions (3) decision events (4) mini-decision processes (5) decision processes and (6) decision theatres. They vary in time, numbers of participants, and in the integrative effort required to formulate and implement them. Thus, one problem with the word ‘decision’is that it is used to mean many different things in organizational settings. Each lower level of ‘decision’was found to combine with ‘decisions’of the same level and to be embedded within higher levels, resulting in a nested hierarchy of simultaneously occurring processes.     

制造企业物流系统决策及决策优化

制造企业的流系统决策包括物流和物流战术决策,这些决策的制订必须以系统总成本最低为目标,制造企业物流活动各环节,各子系统的决策钷缩复杂,有的相互影响,有的具有一定的独立性,正确分析相关决策和非相关决策（独立决策）并做好相关决策的平衡和各子系统的优化工作才能从根本上降低制造企业的物流成本,挖掘企业第三利润源泉。     

空军航材运输方式选择的模糊决策方法

基于层次分析的思想，本文建立了航材运输方式的评价指标体系，并运用多目标模糊决策的方法。提出了航材运输方式选择的模糊决策模型。通过该决策模型的应用，决策者可以将定性指标定量化，从而提高决策的客观性、科学性。     

城建项目投资决策支持系统研究

从城建项目投资决策的实际出发,建立了基于多目标模糊决策模型的城建项目投资决策支持系统。通过在实际中的应用表明,该系统提高城建项目投资决策的效率和准确性,并满足了及时决策的需要。     

零售企业库存管理决策支持系统研究

本文以零售企业为背景．对其库存管理决策支持系统进行总体分析，并对决策支持系统中模型库系统作重点分析，阐述了库存决策支持系统的决策模型应包含单一产品库存决策模型、多品种产品库存决策模型和多级联合库存决策模型，说明了库存管理决策支持系统的具体实现。     

供应链协同决策问题的探讨

供应链协同决策在供应链管理中发挥重要作用,直接影响供应链的运作水平.通过对供应链协同决策特征的描述,提出了供应链协同决策内容、协同决策信息的建模过程和组织模式,由此分析了Web服务在构建供应链协同决策支持系统中的技术优势.     

基于数据仓库的军事物流决策支持系统应用研究

针对传统的数据库模式下的军事物流决策支持系统存在的数据分散、数据规范不统一、数据可分析能力低等缺点，引进了数据仓库技术，分析了其体系结构，并将数据仓库技术应用到军事物流管理决策中，本文提出了基于数据仓库的军事物流决策支持系统．进而构建了军事物流决策支持系统系统架构和决策支持系统中数据仓库体系结构，最后对基于数据仓库的军事物流决篡支持系统的应用与发展进行了展望。     

Project Decision Chain

To add value to project performance and help obtain project success, a new framework for decision making in projects is defined. It introduces the project decision chain inspired by the supply chain thinking in the manufacturing sector and uses three types of decisions: authorization, selection, and plan decision. A primitive decision element is defined where all the three decision types can be accommodated. Each task in the primitive element can in itself contain subtasks that in turn will comprise new primitive elements. The primitive elements are nested together in a project decision chain.     

农产品供应链协调中的期权契约价值研究

通过分析供应链期权机制,建立了农产品供应链协调下的各决策主体的决策模型。基于此模型求得协调状况下供应商的最优价格、产能决策和零售商的最优购买决策。说明了农产品供应链中引入期权机制之后,供应链实现了收益共享、风险共担。     

Rationality in supplier selection decisions: The effect of the buyer's national task environment

Our study sheds light on two fundamental questions in supply management: First, does adherence to highly rational decision processes help buyers make better supplier selection decisions? Second, is the influence of procedural rationality on decision effectiveness moderated by buyers’ (differently dynamic) task environments? We empirically test these questions using a sample of 150 supplier selection decisions taken in China and 150 decisions taken in Germany, countries that expose buyers to dynamic decision environments and stable decision environments, respectively. Our findings suggest that the influence of decision process rationality is stable across decision makers’ task environments. Both in China and in Germany, such process rationality is positively related with higher decision quality, and no significant differences in relationship strengths emerge between the two country samples.     

A representation of decision by analogy

We give a representation of analogical reasoning in choice under uncertainty. A decision maker is faced with two decision problems, a familiar and a novel one. It is shown that, under assumptions that capture the salience of alignable differences in choice, the decision maker can be construed as choosing between acts in the novel decision problem as if drawing all likelihood information from a multi-valued correspondence between states of the world in the familiar domain and states of the world in the novel domain. The latter is interpreted as an analogy between the two decision problems, and the fuzziness of the analogy is related to revealed ambiguity in the novel decision problem.     

The Influence of Decision,Environmental and Firm Characteristics on the Rationality of Strategic Decision‐Making*

abstract This paper develops an integrated model of strategic decision‐making rationality. The model is informed by three perspectives that respectively identify decision, environmental and firm characteristics as influences on the rationality of decision processes. The results of a study in Egypt indicate that the rationality of strategic decision‐making processes is shaped by variables identified by all three perspectives, and that such decision processes cannot adequately be modelled in terms of a single perspective only. However, the study also suggests that the three perspectives do not contribute in equal measure to explaining strategic decision making, and that the national setting is relevant for the extent to which strategic decision‐makers take account of environmental characteristics. The location of the investigation in Egypt highlights some deviations from previous research that could be attributed to nation‐specific factors, both cultural and institutional.     

我国上市公司融资决策归因分析

在现有融资决策理论的基础上,利用现金流股价模型及实物期权方法,来量化上市公司融资决策中的确定性成本和不确定性因素,并对我国上市公司的融资决策进行归因分析。研究表明,融资成本不是企业融资决策的决定性因素,不同融资方式的期权价值对融资决策有重要影响。公司采取何种融资策略,要比较股权融资成本+股权融资期权价值和债权融资成本+债权融资期权价值的大小,上市公司的经营状况与债权融资存在正相关关系。本文扩展了融资决策的动因分析,为定量评价融资行为提供了依据。     

一种基于模糊距离和证据理论的多属性群决策方法

针对语言评价信息形式的多属性群决策问题,提出了一种基于模糊距离和D-S证据理论的群决策方法。该方法首先运用基于模糊距离的方法来获得决策者权重,再对多个决策者给出的语言评价信息进行分析,然后通过D-S合成法则对其值进行合成。计算信度函数和似真函数,据此对所有决策方案进行排序。最后通过一个算例验证该方法的可行性和有效性。     

Robustness as a corporate objective under uncertainty

This paper examines the nature of the objective function of the firm when operating under conditions of uncertainty. Robustness is presented as a purposeful maximand for decision making both under conditions of certainty and uncertainty - a robust decision being one in which the decision maker retains the maximum flexibility with regard to future decisions after an initial decision has been made. Its incorporation within a managerial objective function provides a measurable scale for making choices between alternative courses of action, including under conditions of internal organizational conflict and environmental reaction by other decision makers.     

基于信息熵的三种灰色关联度在房地产住宅消费决策中的优化与比较

介绍了房地产住宅消费决策优化与比较问题的理念,阐述了灰色关联决策的基本原理和三种灰色关联度的决策方法,基于信息熵的基本原理确定了各个目标因素的权系数,建立了相应的决策模型,针对示例方案进行了分析,并作了系统的总结。     

A political model using influence diagrams and the Analytic Hierarchy Process: the Camp David negotiations

Quantitative models and computer-based decision analysis are rarely used to support complex political decision processes. Dynamic models that will encompass both the objective and subjective factors affecting any political decision are needed, and decision makers must be able to understand and interact with computer-based support systems. This paper demonstrates how microcomputer-based decision analysis and decision support techniques can be used to structure and simulate a complex political decision process in the area of international negotiations. The decision analysis tool of influence diagrams and the mathematical technique of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) are applied to the Camp David negotiations between Egypt and Israel. The theory of influence diagrams is discussed and the influence diagram analysis software package DAVID is used to create the logic structure of the Camp David negotiations based upon the historical record. The theory of AHP is discussed and the AHP-based software package EXPERT CHOICE is used to replicate the subjective value judgments of the Camp David negotiators. An interaction scheme between the two methods is constructed which enables negotiators to explore the logic of a negotiating problem, to promote a common understanding of the impending negotiations, and to explore trade-offs between alternative proposals.     

基于构造超平面的两阶段决策树算法的研究

如何在测试节点里构造一个恰当的分割超平面是构造决策树的关键,与单变量决策树不同,多变量(倾斜)决策树可以找到与特征轴不垂直的超平面。本文将从几何学角度说明构造测试节点的过程,提出了一种两阶段决策树的算法。     

A multi-criteria approach to local tax planning

A city tax model based on the analytic hierarchy process is developed. This model allows city officials to explicitly take into account the existence of multiple decision criteria in selecting new tax options. Opinions from tax experts are used to relate tax plans to decision criteria. The paper explores the feasibility of applying commonly available decision tools to facilitate and improve decision making in local government.