The driving forces behind China’s growth1

The main objective of this article is to disentangle the determinants of the Chinese economic growth that occurred from 1965 to 2000. We have explored, first, the time series properties of the growth rates of gross domestic product and labour productivity with an extended battery of unit‐root tests. Then, in a multivariate setting, we use the VAR model methodology to provide evidence that physical and human capital accumulation, R&D expenditure, openness and competitiveness are the main drivers of output, labour productivity and total factor productivity growth in the long run. Additionally, we also show that although China has not yet converged to its long‐run equilibrium, it is in the process of catching up. These results are more consistent with some versions of the endogenous growth models than with Solow‐type models of growth, since they support active strategies of economic policy to stimulate economic growth and catching up with more advanced economies.     

Biodiversity pressure and the driving forces behind

Since the UNCED Conference in Rio de Janeiro 1992, the need to actively protect biodiversity is universally acknowledged. The UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) defined biodiversity as comprising ecosystem diversity, species diversity and genetic diversity, and decided for the ecosystem level as the basis for describing biodiversity. However, due to conceptual problems as much as to the lack of data, so far no comprehensive measurements of biodiversity have been developed. A single measure quantitatively describing biodiversity even seems out of reach due to the incommensurability of the three levels. This makes it impossible to directly base policy decisions on existing or future estimates of the “total size” of biodiversity. Instead, it is suggested to analyse the pressures threatening biodiversity, which can usually be measured quantitatively, and act as the interface between the socioeconomic driving forces behind them and the biological impacts. The drivers (physical primary drivers, politics and policies causing them as secondary and institutional structures as tertiary ones) do not only affect biodiversity, but a range of sustainability problems. The analysis permits to integrate biodiversity risks with broader environmental and sustainability policies, and thus to mainstream biodiversity preservation.Such an analysis is presented for Europe, naming pressures and driving forces and illustrating the close links between the causes of biodiversity pressures and other environmental problems. This way, it is possible to develop first ideas how the standard set of environmental policies must be modified and extended to cover the issue of biodiversity.     

Effects of blocking patents on R&D: a quantitative DGE analysis

What are the effects of blocking patents on R&;D and consumption? This paper develops a quality-ladder growth model with overlapping intellectual property rights and capital accumulation to quantitatively evaluate the effects of blocking patents. The analysis focuses on two policy variables (a) patent breadth that determines the amount of profits created by an invention and (b) the profit-sharing rule that determines the distribution of profits between current and former inventors along the quality ladder. The model is calibrated to aggregate data of the US economy. Under parameter values that match key features of the US economy and show equilibrium R&;D underinvestment, I find that optimizing the profit-sharing rule of blocking patents would lead to a significant increase in R&;D, consumption and welfare. Also, the paper derives and quantifies a dynamic distortionary effect of patent policy on capital accumulation.     

Effects of subsidies on growth and welfare in a quality-ladder model with elastic labor

This paper develops a quality-ladder growth model with elastic labor supply and distortionary taxes to analyze the effects of different subsidy instruments: subsidies to the production of final goods, subsidies to the purchase of intermediate goods, and subsidies to research and development (R&D). Moreover, the model is calibrated to the US data to compare the growth and welfare implications of these subsidies. The main results are as follows. First, we analytically show that an optimal coordination of all instruments attains the first-best outcome. Second, in the calibrated economy, we numerically find that for the use of a single instrument, R&D subsidy is less growth-enhancing and welfare-improving than the other subsidies, whereas for the use of a mix of two instruments, subsidizing the production of final goods and the purchase of intermediate goods is most effective in promoting growth but least effective in raising welfare.     

A welfare analysis of global patent protection in a model with endogenous innovation and foreign direct investment

This paper constructs a North–South quality-ladder model in which foreign direct investment (FDI) is determined by the endogenous location choice of firms, and examines analytically how strengthening patent protection in the South affects welfare in the South. Strengthening patent protection increases the South's welfare by enhancing innovation and FDI, but it also allows the firms with patents to charge higher prices for their goods, which decreases welfare. However, the model shows that the former positive welfare effect outweighs the latter negative effect. Moreover, introducing the strictest form of patent protection in the South, that is, harmonizing patent protection in the South with that in the North, may maximize welfare in the South as well as in the North. Further, a similar result can also be obtained in a nonscale effect model.     

贸易顺差、资本流入与中国外汇储备规模增长

本文通过协整检验和Granger因果关系检验,对影响我国外汇储备规模快速增长的诸因素进行了实证分析。分析结果表明,（1）我国外汇储备规模与年出口额、外国证券投资、外商直接投资、外债还本付息额具有长期的稳定关系。（2）年出口规模与外汇储备规模之间具有单向因果关系,是造成外汇储备快速增长的主要原因。（3）外商直接投资、外国证券投资和外汇储备规模具有正向相关关系,其影响强度较弱;而外债还本付息额与外汇储备呈负向相关关系。（4）1986年～2009年间,贸易顺差对外汇储备规模增长的贡献度约为68%,而资本流入约为32%。本文基于实证分析结果认为,采取贸易项目收支平衡战略以减少外汇储备过度增长是最佳的选择。     

浅析国际直接投资自由化进程中的中国外资政策

随着全球经济一体化的演进，国际直接投资日趋自由化流动。国际直接投资自由化的兴起在全球经济的增长和国际分工深化的进程中发挥了越来越重要的作用。我国是利用国际直接投资的大国，目前正处于向市场经济转轨的关键时期，经济体制和市场结构还不完善，如何在确保国家经济安全的前提下，推进国际直接投资自由化进程，积极合理地扩大引资规模，应成为人们关注的焦点问题。因此，本文试图探寻国际直接投资自由化的经济机理，总结出国际投资自由化的有效制度安排对现行制度进行调整，以期更好地把握和指导我国改革开放实践及进一步融入国际直接投资自由化进程。     

我国对外直接投资理论研究综述

对外直接投资是我国企业发展到一定阶段的必然选择，而我国关于对外直接投资的理论研究无疑对于指导我国企业的FDI活动具有重要的意义。因此本文在研究国外对外直接投资理论的基础上，着重综述了我国学者的相关研究成果．以明确以后的方向。     

R&D subsidies and private R&D expenditures: evidence from Italian manufacturing data

This paper uses a comprehensive firm level data set for the manufacturing sector in Italy to investigate the effect of government support on privately financed R&D expenditure. Estimates from a non‐parametric matching procedure suggest that public assistance has a positive effect on private R&D investment in the sense that the recipient firms achieve more private R&D than they would have without public support. This indicates that the possibility of perfect crowding out between private and public funds can be rejected. Furthermore, in this sample of Italian firms, tax incentives appear to be more effective than direct grants. The paper also examines whether public funding affects the financial sources available for R&D and finds that grants encourage the use of internal sources. The results also show some evidence of positive effects on credit financing for R&D.     

Location factors of international R&D activities: an econometric approach

A model is developed of the relation between adoption of an innovation by firms and firm size. Decision making is represented as a group assessment of the perceived ratio between expected returns after succesful introduction, and the risk that implementation will fail or will last too long to makc adoption worth while. In view of differences in thc assessment of uncertainty and corresponding demands on the perceived return-to-risk ratio, among influencers of decisions in the firm, decision making is taken as stochastic, with a probability of adoption related to (objective) net benefits, and probability of non-adoption related to risk. The model gives a new way of looking at the fact that small firms lag behind in the adoption of new technology. In contrast with previous models proposed by David and Davies the explanation has nothing to do with there being some critical size below which adoption is not profitable. The present model explains the adoption lag for smaller firms as the result of expected returns being proportional to size while risk of failed implementation is independent of size. The model is tested and estimated empirically on data for the adoption of computers in small scale retailing, in the Netherlands.     

A note on the effect of patents in endogenous growth models

This note examines the effect of patent protection in an endogenous growth model with a generic innovation process. It indicates that increasing patent breadth stimulates innovation when R&D is less intermediates-intensive than production, whereas it has a non-monotonic effect on innovation when the former is more intermediates-intensive than the latter.     

政府的科技激励政策对大中型工业企业R&D投入及其专利产出的影响——上海市的实证研究

本文从动态角度运用面板数据分析中的随机效应模型实证研究了上海市政府的科技激励政策对大中型工业企业自筹的R&D投入及其专利产出的影响。本文认为 ,政府的科技拨款资助和税收减免这两个政策工具对大中型工业企业增加自筹的R&D投入都具有积极效果 ,并且政府的拨款资助越稳定效果越好 ;政府拨款资助和税收减免互为补充 ,提高一个的强度也会增加另一个的效果 ,但这个效应以政府税收减免为主。不同来源的R&D支出和不同等级的人力资源对专利产出的影响是不同的 ,自筹的R&D支出对专利产出有着显著的正面作用。     

出口平台型直接投资研究综述

出口平台型投资是经济全球化浪潮中出现的一种新型投资模式，区别于在东道国销售的水平型投资和返销母国的垂直型投资。出口平台型直接投资生产的产品主要面向第三国销售。由于传统的两国模型根本无法分析向第三国出口的出口平台型投资，该概念仅仅在最近几年才出现在经济学文献中。本文在总结现有出口平台型投资理论研究和实证研究成果的基础上，说明出口平台型投资对东道国外资流入和投资国贸易的基本影响。     

Foreign and domestic R&D investment

A considerable share of R&D investment is due to multinational firms that simultaneously operate R&D bases at home and abroad. We develop a simple model of foreign and domestic R&D investment and test the model's predictions on a sample of 146 Japanese multinational firms’ R&D investments in Japan and the United States in 1996. The empirical results confirm that the foreign to domestic R&D ratio depends on relative technological opportunities and relative demand conditions, with foreign research expenditures responding to technological opportunity and foreign development expenditures responding to demand.     

The politics of growth: Can lobbying raise growth and welfare?

We consider a setup where lobbyist firms undertake contributions to an office-motivated policy maker in exchange for profit increasing regulations, in a general equilibrium model of R&D-driven growth. We find that, despite increasing concentration—which leads to higher prices and less varieties—lobbying may stimulate growth and increase welfare by means of an expansion in aggregate demand if its real costs are small. This conclusion is supported by a simple calibration exercise.     

美国在华FDI对中美经贸关系的影响

中美之间的贸易不平衡存在着内在的必然性,美国在华直接投资从替代效应和互补效应两个方面又加剧双边的贸易不平衡。美国在华投资企业可以成为减弱中美贸易摩擦的一股特殊力量。     

Economic Integration and FDI: An Empirical Analysis of Foreign Investment in the EU and in Central and Eastern Europe

Recent evidence suggests that regional economic integration provides an important stimulus not only to trade, but also to FDI. In contrast, the available theory on FDI does not yet provide empirically testable propositions on the effects of concurrent trade and investment liberalisation. Moreover, given the limits of simulation models, which rely heavily upon parameter choice, in assessing the impact of such liberalisation, there is a need for empirical analysis to identify the principal features of FDI. This paper uses a gravity model approach to assess the impact of the deepening integration between the EU and the CEECs on FDI flows in terms of three key issues. First, we provide systematic estimates of the expected long-term level of FDI in the CEECs. Second, we investigate whether FDI in the CEECs, on the one hand, and source country exports and imports, on the other hand, are complements or substitutes. Finally, we enquire whether an increase in the attractiveness of the CEECs to foreign investors has affected the magnitude of FDI going to other European countries.     

Host country's governance and the size of foreign investors

We find that smaller foreign investors are more sensitive to the quality of host country's governance than larger investors. This may be the case as smaller foreign firms have less bargaining power and are more sensitive to uncertainty and risk.     

Foreign direct investment in OECD countries: a special focus in the case of Greece

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is considered as an important instrument for economic development all over the world. The aim of this paper is to examine the FDI inflows determinants for 24 OECD countries. To this end we employ annual data from 1980 to 2012 for a series of potential FDI determinants that have been identified as the most important by the relevant literature. Our empirical strategy employs both the standard fixed effects panel as well as a dynamic panel approach. The empirical findings highlight the importance of market size, trade openness, unit labor cost, schooling, taxation, gross capital formation, institutional variables, and ROA/ROE as significant FDI determinants. In the case of the dynamic panel model those FDI inflows determinants are not uniform for all country groups. Additionally, the results indicate that corporate tax rates clearly affect FDI attractiveness. This finding is robust when testing different countries subgroups. The present study has important policy implications indicating the factors that host economies should place emphasis on in order to attract FDI inflows. Policy makers should not only pay attention to the corporate tax rate level but they should also design a simple, stable and transparent taxation system that minimizes the relevant business risk.