Tourist security,terrorism risk management and tourist safety

Tourists are easy targets for terrorist activities, especially with the rise of lone wolf attacks. Drawing on the example of the 2015 Sousse (Tunisia) shootings, and using a conceptual framework informed by tourist security, terrorism risk management including terrorism risk assessment, communication and due care, we analyse the management of the terror induced security risks, and the factors influencing this process. This is achieved through a first-in-the field tourism study that applies narrative analysis to legal discourse. The study reveals that tourist security was compromised by a lack of terrorism risk communication, poor policing, and by limited integration of counter-terrorism strategies, particularly the inadequate implementation of environmental mitigation. We discuss the implications for terrorism risk assessment, management and communication and consider key propositions around tourist security responsibilities (e.g. due care). Future avenues for research are highlighted.     

Terrorism and tourism as logical companions

The symbiotic relationship between terrorism and tourism needs to be understood and acted on, not just in terms of security and marketing, but in terms of such factors as planning, site development, employment policies, political risk analysis and emergency management. This article looks at the relationship between tourism and terrorism from several perspectives. The political and economic impact of terrorism on tourism is assessed, including the sensitivity of the tourism industry to general political strife and the vulnerability of travellers and tourist facilities to terroristic activity. The nature of terroristic violence and the objectives of terrorist groups are evaluated to determine why and how attacks on tourists and facilities may fit the organizational and political objectives of terrorist groups. Finally, the article suggests how the industry and policy makers must proceed to reduce the vulnerability for tourists and the travel sector.     

Modelling and forecasting daily international mass tourism to Peru

Peru is a South American country that is divided into two parts by the Andes Mountains. The rich historical, cultural and geographic diversity has led to the inclusion of ten Peruvian sites on UNESCO's World Heritage List. For the potentially negative impacts of mass tourism on the environment, and hence on future international tourism demand, to be managed appropriately require modelling growth rates and volatility adequately. The paper models the growth rate and volatility (or the variability in the growth rate) in daily international tourist arrivals to Peru from 1997 to 2007. The empirical results show that international tourist arrivals and their growth rates are stationary, and that the estimated symmetric and asymmetric conditional volatility models all fit the data extremely well. Moreover, the estimates resemble those arising from financial time series data, with both short and long run persistence of shocks to the growth rate in international tourist arrivals.     

Time-varying impact of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk on tourist arrivals: Evidence from a developing country

Although the relationship between uncertainties and tourism has been widely discussed, the time-varying impacts of uncertainties on tourism have been ignored. This paper investigates the time-varying relationship between two global and domestic uncertain shocks (namely, economic policy uncertainty (EPU), geopolitical risks (GPR)) with Chinese inbound tourism using a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model. The empirical results show that uncertain shocks on tourist arrivals have significantly time-varying features, and the direction of the effect changes. The impact gradually weakens with the increase in the lag period. However, the impacts are heterogeneous depending on the uncertain shocks. Additionally, the effects of major event shocks on tourism differ. The uncertainty of the 9/11 terrorist attack had the shortest impact on tourism, while the impact on tourism was greater for geopolitical risks than for economic policy uncertainty during the global financial crisis. These findings provide new insights for policy holders and relevant investors into the mentioned relationships.     

Do shocks have permanent or transitory effects on tourist inflow? An application of stationarity test with structural breaks: evidence reexamined for Gilgit-Baltistan,Pakistan

ABSTRACT

Do shocks affect tourist inflows permanently or temporarily? To examine this question, we consider a region in Northern Pakistan, Gilgit-Baltistan, known for its natural and scenic beauty and with a history of huge tourist inflows, both domestic and international. The tourist arrivals from significant source markets are investigated using univariate and Lagrange Multiplier (LM) unit root tests with two structural breaks to examine if shocks to the time path of visitors’ inflow are permanent or transitory. According to the results, the univariate and LM unit root test with two breaks reject the unit root null for all major source markets. The findings suggest transistory effects rather than permanent effects of shocks on the growth path of tourist arrivals to Gilgit-Baltistan. This result further predicts the sustainability of the tourism sector in the region in the long run.     

Safety,security and peace tourism: The case of the DMZ area

It comes as no surprise that peace and tourism is an important topic today in tourism literature. Despite the strength of global tourist demand, many destinations, especially in the developing world, are facing fluctuations in tourist arrivals, due to unsafe political conditions. This study discusses the symbiosis between tourism and peace and its opposite, war, and the likely impacts of each condition on several tourist destinations. A turbulent security environment, caused by international and civil wars, coup d'etat and terrorist attacks has already demonstrated its negative impact on tourism development in many countries around the world (Taylor & Quayle, 1994). The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between safety, tranquility, peace, and successful tourism, using surveys completed by both international and domestic tourists. More specifically, it is about the effects of the absence of safety, security and peace on domestic and international tourism in the Korean demilitarized zone (DMZ) area. The general findings demonstrate that the subjects of the study view the implication of the existence of a peaceful environment on tourism favourably.     

The influence of terrorism in tourism arrivals: A longitudinal approach in a Mediterranean country

This longitudinal study examines the impact that terrorist attacks within a representative group of European countries can have on the tourism demand of a South European country with no record of terrorism attacks. In order to analyze the connections between terrorist attacks and tourists' arrivals, occurred between 2002 and the end of 2016, an Unrestricted Vector Autoregressive model was used for multivariate time series analysis. The main results show that terrorist attacks have a strong impact on tourist arrivals and confirm the existence of terrorism spillover, namely the substitution and generalization effects phenomena.     

Sustainability Analysis of Ecotourism on Yao Noi Island,Thailand

International visitor arrivals from Malaysia's 10 major source markets are examined using Lagrange Multiplier (LM) unit root tests with one and two structural breaks to ascertain whether shocks to the time path of tourist arrivals are permanent or transitory. The LM unit root test with one break is able to reject the unit root null for between 60% of source markets where the break is specified as in the intercept and 90% of source markets where the break is specified as in the intercept and slope. The LM unit root test with two breaks is able to reject the unit root null for all source markets, irrespective of how the break is specified. This result suggests that the effects of shocks on the growth path of tourist arrivals to Malaysia from its major markets are only transitory and that Malaysia's tourist sector is sustainable in the long run. Although the effects of shocks are not permanent, we do find that following shocks the growth in tourist arrivals from Malaysia's source markets has generally slowed. This result suggests there is a need to reduce the negative effects of slower growth in the recovery phase.     

Terrorism and Tourism:The Vulnerability of Beach Vendors' Livelihoods in Bali

Tourism has been encouraged in many of the world's poorer countries as a means of stimulating development. However, tourism is vulnerable to external shocks, which can damage a host country's economy, especially where reliance on tourism is high. This paper focuses on Bali, Indonesia where tranquillity was shattered by terrorist bombs in October 2002, and again in October 2005. It examines the impact of the 2002 bombings on the island's beach vendors, members of the informal sector who work at the margins of tourism. The UK's Department for International Development's (DFID) model of sustainable development is used as a guide to assess notional changes in vendor livelihoods and reveals the sharp reduction in their access to financial capital once tourism had collapsed. Fieldwork showed that livelihoods were sustained with difficulty after the terrorist attacks and that social capital played a major role in survival. Although visitor numbers to Bali are recovering, the research reveals significant changes in vendors' livelihood patterns. Social capital remains strong though it has changed in certain respects as a consequence of terrorist activity, one of the most negative changes being an increase in local religious tensions. The authors question the wisdom of encouraging tourism as a major vehicle for development without simultaneously promoting alternative income-generating opportunities to offer a safety net against external shocks to a vulnerable tourism industry.     

Crisis Management Planning to Restore Tourism After Disasters

SUMMARY

The tourism industry is vulnerable to natural and human induced incidents such as terrorist attacks, political instability, flood and earthquakes. On September 21st 1999, a devastating earthquake struck Taiwan which caused severe damage to both local people and the tourism industry. This paper proposes an innovative integrated approach that could be adopted as a crisis management plan for Taiwan to restore its tourism industry. A thorough review of the crisis management literature is introduced and examined to generate an integrated crisis management framework. It is anticipated that this framework could accelerate tourism recovery by showing secure images for tourists, and hence the competitiveness of a tourist nation could be enhanced through sound crisis management practices.     

Tourism implications of online response to terrorism

Individuals all around the world are under constant threat of terrorist attacks. Not surprisingly, terrorist attacks have a strong impact on tourism. However, tourism research is silent on how people respond online after terrorist attacks. Analyzing 154,390 tweets that were posted on Twitter after eight major terrorist attacks that occurred between November 24, 2016 and January 10, 2017, our results demonstrate that people show more anger-related compared to fear-related emotions online after terrorist attacks. We call for further research in tourism to understand how tourism managers and public policy makers can leverage social media after terrorist attacks.     

Macro and non-macro explanatory factors of Chinese hotel stock returns

This study investigates the link between macro and non-macro explanatory factors and Chinese hotel stock returns. Macro variables include growth rates of industrial production and imports, discount rates, yield spread and inflation rate. In addition, growth rate of total foreign tourist arrivals (ΔTA) was introduced as another critical macro factor that may affect Chinese hotel stock returns, considering a tremendous growth of tourism in China. Empirical results indicated that the impact of ΔTA was positive, but insignificant. Thus, Chinese hotel stock returns were more sensitive to general macro variables. Non-macro events that could significantly impact Chinese hotel stock returns encompass financial crises, natural disasters, wars, terrorist attacks, political events, and sports mega-events. Discussions and conclusions are provided to guide hospitality investors.     

The impacts of governance and institutions on inbound tourism demand: evidence from a dynamic panel data study

This study explores the impact of governance and institutions on inbound tourism demand in Malaysia using a dynamic panel data approach for 45 tourism source countries over the period 2005–2015. The results show that institutions play a very important role in explaining the behaviour of inbound tourism demand. To obtain a better picture, we investigate the response of international tourists to disaggregated institutional quality. We find that international tourists are more concerned about political stability, governmental effectiveness, regulations, laws, and corruption than voice and accountability. Therefore, policymakers should focus on ways to improve institutional quality to significantly increase international tourist arrivals.     

The Role of Market Orientation in Managing Crises During the Post-Crisis Phase

SUMMARY

The tourism business around the world, as one of the most susceptible and vulnerable sectors, must often manage and survive global crises. In recent years the global tourism industry has experienced major crises, such as terrorist attacks, political instability, economic recession, biosecurity threats and natural disasters. The most well-known cases bear testimony to the fact that crises are not new to the tourism industry. However, tourism management capabilities and abilities to deal with complex and critical situations are limited. The time has come to develop an understanding of factors that can help tourism businesses prepare a way of getting through such crises by examining the role of market orientation and its antecedents during a post-crisis phase. This paper is concerned with the effects of several organizational factors on market orientation in airlines during the post-crisis phase of the terrorist attacks of “9/11.” The results indicate that top management factors, interdepartmental factors and organizational systems have a positive effect on market orientation after a crisis has occurred.     

Quality and endogenous tourism: An empirical approach

We propose a theoretical model and an empirical study that highlight the role of quality of tourism services and endogenous tourism in long-run economic growth. We study a theoretical growth model of international trade where tourism is the growth engine and quality of tourism services has a positive impact on long-term growth. We also provide an empirical analysis to test the relation between tourism, quality and economic growth in Spain over the period 1970–2010. Our results show that in the long run, tourist arrivals, quality of tourism accommodations, and foreign GDP have a positive effect on Spanish GDP. In the short term, changes in economic growth appear to lead to growth in tourist arrivals. Our findings support a two-way causal relationship between real GDP growth and tourism growth in Spain.     

Tourist arrivals,energy consumption and pollutant emissions in a developing economy–implications for sustainable tourism

Sustainable tourism management policies should aim at maximising economic benefits from tourist arrivals while minimising associated adverse impacts on the environment. This study assesses the short-run and long-run relationships between tourist arrivals, per capita economic output, emissions, energy consumption and capital formation, citing Nepal as a specific case study. We developed four hypotheses and tested them using time-series econometrics based on the autoregressive distributed lag model and Granger causality tests. The results provide strong evidence of an economy driven tourism sector where expansion in economic output leads to expansion in tourist arrivals. More tourist arrivals, in turn, generate positive impacts on gross capital formation. Energy consumption negatively affects tourist arrivals, calling for increased attention towards improving energy efficiency and energy diversity. We conclude that national policies to increase tourist arrivals should be integrated with national energy and environmental policies in order to facilitate the transition towards a sustainable tourism sector.     

Vulnerability and resilience of the tourism sector in India: Effects of natural disasters and internal conflict

Tourism resilience studies often focus on a single shock event. In reality, the same destination may face different kinds of shocks. It is important to compare the relative effect and resilience to different shocks.Using a panel dataset for 22 Indian states, we build random effect models to understand the impact of natural disasters and political conflict on domestic and foreign tourist arrivals. Severe conflict events affect domestic tourist arrivals negatively, while natural disasters do not. In contrast, natural disasters affect international tourist arrivals negatively but conflicts do not.We study resilience by identifying breaks in tourist arrivals and noting corresponding recovery times. Breaks were observed in more states for the international segment compared to domestic segment. Recovery times was also greater for international rather than domestic tourists. Thus domestic tourists seem to be more resilient compared to international tourists. Our study provides useful insights that may have policy implications.     

Multilateral political effects on outbound tourism

To capture the role of politics in tourism, we propose a novel measure to quantify political relations based on text analysis of published diplomatic statements. We explain how political relations affect outbound tourist flows from China to Japan and Korea. Estimated on monthly data (1997m1-2018m12), our model shows how China-Japan disputes affect tourist flows to Korea and how China-Korea clashes influence the number of Chinese tourists going to Japan. The political effects are estimated to peak after three months, but half of the effects vanish in six months. We also observe asymmetries in the political effects—the tourists respond more to negative political shocks than to positive ones, and more to territorial disputes than to war history disputes.     

Heterogeneity in risk and safety perceptions of international tourists

The travel decisions of international tourists have, over the past decade, been significantly affected by external events, such as the fear of pandemics and terrorist attacks. Yet, little attention has been paid to heterogeneity among tourists with respect to risk perceptions. The question whether some tourist segments are less sensitive to external risks and thus more attractive to tourism industry in times of crises remains largely unanswered. This study conducts a data-driven segmentation of heterogeneity in the tourist population with respect to perceived risks of international travel and assesses if market segments with different risk perception patterns are distinct in other behavioral and personal characteristics. Additionally the study includes nationality as a proxy for “cultural background”, here analyzed in light of Hofstede's (1983) model. Practical implications are discussed.     

The response of hotel performance to international tourism development and crisis events

This study uses panel regression tests to examine the response of hotel performance to international tourism development and crisis events in Taiwan. Hotel performance measures are revenue (revenue per available room and occupancy rate), profitability (return on assets and return on equity) and stock performance. The crises were the earthquake on September 21, 1999 (the 9/21 earthquake), the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 in the US (the 9/11 terrorist attacks) and the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome on April 22, 2003 (the SARS outbreak). This study makes four major contributions. First, test results confirm that international tourism development (ITD), proxied by the growth of total inbound tourist arrivals, has a more direct influence on hotel sales and profitability than it does on hotel stock performance. Second, this study identifies that the absence of a strong tie between ITD and hotel stock returns that was found in previous studies is due to the time-varying discount rate caused by investors’ changing expectations for the prospect of future cash flows from holding hotel stocks. Third, this study finds new evidence that while the poor performance of hotel stocks caused by the 9/21 earthquake and the 9/11 terrorist attacks was attributed to the loss of hotel sales revenue, the adverse effect of the SARS outbreak on hotel stock returns is attributed not only to decreased hotel sales revenue but also to the increased discount rate. Lastly, this study is the first to investigate whether the response of hotel stock returns to ITD depends on the state of economy and concludes that the response of hotel stock performance to ITD in business cycle contraction is statistically different from that in business cycle expansion. Further, although the influence of ITD on hotel stock performance is still irrelevant during expansion periods, ITD can significantly enhance hotel stock returns during contraction periods.