Developing a Forecast System for Hotel Occupancy Rate Using Integrated ARIMA Models

Abstract

International tourist hotels play a consequential role in the development of the tourism industry. The occupancy rate is usually considered a pertinent indicator in measuring the performance of the hotels. This study employs the ARIMA and ARIMA transfer function model incorporated with the Box-Cox transformation function for the forecasting of occupancy rate. The results of this research find two explanatory variables strongly affect the occupancy rate: one is the numbers of tourists and the other is the Taiwan/ Japan foreign exchange rate. The forecasting shows slow rising of the occupancy rate for the international hotels in Taiwan; it will reach 64.67% by the year 2000. The forecast of the occupancy rate provides important information tor both government agencies and hotel managers so that corresponding management strategies can be made.     

The impact of infectious diseases on hotel occupancy rate based on independent component analysis

The recent global outbreak of Influenza A (H1N1), or the more commonly known as swine flu, has negatively affected the tourism and hospitality industries in many countries. This article reports a study that applied independent component analysis, a novel statistical technique, to separate the dominant factors which determine the levels of hotel occupancy rates in Hong Kong. Empirical findings would provide useful insights on how the dynamic lodging demand reacts to epidemics based on the severity and duration of the events.     

Advance booking and hotel price variability online: Any opportunity for business customers?

Is it possible for business customers to effectively adjust their purchasing strategies, as a response to revenue management? We consider daily online best available rates for a panel of 357 hotels in Milan and Rome, up to an advance booking of 29 days.We analyse price trajectories, finding that dynamic pricing strategies with no established trend towards the arrival date are prevalent, with a predominance of decreasing trajectories for lower-scale hotels in Milan during fairs. We show that price levels are explained by a variety of structural determinants. We quantify the effects of advance booking, room quality, services, competition, seasonality and fairs, underlining their different importance on leisure and business destinations. Other features, such as breakfast and refunding options, appear to be used as marketing tools to differentiate rooms, keeping a low pace in price adjustment. Managerial implications are discussed, with reference to both corporate travel departments and hôteliers.     

The future of the State-owned hotels in China: Stay or go?

Hotel sector was the first one to employ joint venture in China after its ‘Open Door Policy’ in 1978. In transition from production unit to business unit, the operating system of China's State-owned hotels (SOHs) has changed greatly. Though its hotel industry has become more open, many of the tourist hotels are still State-owned enterprises (SOEs) today, and they account for over half of the loss of all hotels in the country. This study aims to find out: first, critical issues causing those problems facing the SOHs; second, factors affecting the development of SOHs, and third, their future. Government ownership and its related problems, such as complicated ownership, bureaucratic structure and control, add difficulty to restructure SOHs. The future of the SOHs in China regarding whether to stay or to go very much depends on government policy and commitment on restructuring the industry which is vital to success and sustainability of SOHs in the socialist market economy environment.     

The impacts of leader–member guanxi and its differentiation on hotel employees moderated by Confucian values

This study examines the impacts on hotel employees in China of leader–member guanxi (LMG), an Indigenous concept of the relationship between employees and their supervisor, and LMG differentiation (LMGD), the variance in LMG quality within a work team. Furthermore, a set of Confucian values is used as a cross-level moderator to further explain the effects of LMG and LMGD on employees’ work outcomes at both individual and group levels. Based on social cognitive learning theory and Confucian philosophy, research hypotheses were developed and tested using a sample of 483 employees and 75 of their supervisors from 14 Chinese hotels. The findings show that LMG and LMGD have unique effects on employees’ work outcomes at both individual and group levels, and that Confucian values moderated the impacts of LMG and LMGD. The implications are discussed in terms of unique perspectives towards employees of Eastern background for hospitality researchers and practitioners alike.     

A comparison of competing theoretical models for understanding acceptance behavior of information systems in upscale hotels

This study investigated which intention-based model, namely: (1) the technology acceptance model (TAM; Model 1); (2) the theory of planned behavior (TPB; Model 2); and (3) the decomposed TPB (DTPB; Model 3) is best for predicting and explaining employees’ behavioral intention to use hotel information system (HIS). Data were obtained from employees of 13 upscale hotels in Jeju, South Korea, and structural equation modeling (SEM) was employed to examine and compare the three competing theoretical models (CTMs) in terms of overall model fit, explanatory power, and paths significance. The findings of this study revealed that if the key objective is to predict behavioral intention to use HIS, the TAM is preferable. However, if the key objective is to explain behavioral intention to use HIS, the DTPB is preferable.     

When does an employee not help coworkers? The effect of leader–member exchange on employee envy and organizational citizenship behavior

Using a sample of 233 front-line hotel employees, we examined leader–member exchange (LMX), envy, and organizational citizenship behavior (OCB). The results from path analysis support the research model that employees who have a relatively poor working relationship with their supervisor (i.e., low-quality LMX relationship) were more likely to show higher levels of envy than employees who have relatively closer working relationships with the same supervisor (i.e., high-quality LMX relationship). Ultimately, higher levels of envy decreased employee voluntary helping behavior (i.e., organizational citizenship behavior, OCB) toward coworkers. This finding suggests that employees perceiving a poor working relationship with their supervisor committed less voluntary helping behavior toward coworkers than their counterparts. Implications for managers and suggestions for future research are discussed.     

An examination of the progressive effects of hotel frontline employees’ brand perceptions on desirable service outcomes

The present study scrutinizes how hospitality firms’ internal branding influences the service performance of frontline employees in a progressive way. More specifically, based on social influence and social exchange theories, this study examines if organizational commitment mediates the link between hospitality frontline employees’ perceptions of brand authenticity (BA) and brand-value fit (BVF) and their service-related behaviors such as generating ideas for service improvement (GISI) and service-oriented citizenship behavior. With a matched sample of 286 customer-contact frontline employees and 33 of their supervisors from five-star hotels in South Korea, this study found that the higher employees’ perceptions of BA and BVF, the more likely they were to generate ideas for service improvement and engage in service-oriented citizenship behavior, as they were more likely to be committed to the firm. Based on the findings, implications are discussed for hospitality practitioners and researchers alike in terms of internal branding with frontline employees.     

旅游个性化推介服务的未来发展：时空一体化

文章在问题解决策略剖析基础上,指出了旅游个性化推介服务的未来发展方向：时空一体化,并认为旅游网站、LBS网站和ESNs3种平台的整合会成为发展的突破点。以携程网、人人网、切客网等20多个代表性旅游网站、ESNs和LBS网站统计数据为基础,分析了3类平台当前的发展状态,发现3种平台具有趋向融合的发展态势,阐明了旅游个性化推介服务向时空一体方向发展的信息化基础。设计了“信息检索、个性旅行计划辅助决策、动态结伴同游、商务推介、景区导航、导游实时到岗服务、会员口碑推介、旅游预警”等8项时空一体个性化服务内容,是对旅游电子商务、旅游信息化未来发展方向的前瞻性思考。