Can social sentiment affect spouse-based immigration?

This article studies the effect of social sentiment on spouse-based immigration in the US using data on 27 origin countries from 1996 to 2013. We find that the number of immigrant spouses from a foreign country to the US is directly correlated with this country’s popularity among Americans.     

How do mega-bank merger policy and regulations contribute to financial stability? Evidence from Australia and Canada

Although the role of financial regulatory failures in the global financial crisis (GFC) has been explored extensively in the post-GFC literature, our knowledge of the role of bank merger and takeover policy and regulation in reinforcing financial stability is limited. Based on an exploratory case study of Australia, which is examined in comparison to Canada, this article argues that competition policy and regulation contributed to financial stability by insulating the largest Australian and Canadian banks from domestic or foreign hostile takeover threats, and by limiting their asset size, and thus their internationalization and interconnections with the global banking community.     

Does financial intermediation matter for macroeconomic performance?

This paper investigates whether financial intermediary development influences macroeconomic technical efficiency on a sample of 47 countries, both developed and developing, over 1980–1995. We do so by applying Battese and Coelli (1995)'s method at the aggregate level. It is found that financial intermediary development, except financial depth, is on average associated with more efficiency. However we find strong evidence that this relationship is conditional on the level of economic development. The lower the economic development the weaker is the impact of financial development on efficiency. That impact can even become negative in the poorest countries.     

Can volume predict Bitcoin returns and volatility? A quantiles-based approach

Prior studies on the price formation in the Bitcoin market consider the role of Bitcoin transactions at the conditional mean of the returns distribution. This study employs in contrast a non-parametric causality-in-quantiles test to analyse the causal relation between trading volume and Bitcoin returns and volatility, over the whole of their respective conditional distributions. The nonparametric characteristics of our test control for misspecification due to nonlinearity and structural breaks, two features of our data that cover 19th December 2011 to 25th April 2016. The causality-in-quantiles test reveals that volume can predict returns – except in Bitcoin bear and bull market regimes. This result highlights the importance of modelling nonlinearity and accounting for the tail behaviour when analysing causal relationships between Bitcoin returns and trading volume. We show, however, that volume cannot help predict the volatility of Bitcoin returns at any point of the conditional distribution.     

Can open innovation improve firm performance? An investigation of financial information in the biopharmaceutical industry

Over the past decade, open innovation has seemingly become the dominant approach for revitalising a company’s innovation process. Can open innovation improve firm performance? This study optimises the measures for open innovation based on existing literature and by considering the actual situation in China. We draw conclusions from an analysis of 516 annual reports and data from Wind of 172 biopharmaceutical companies from 2013 to 2015. Result indicates that open innovation strategies have different effects at different times: (1) Inbound open innovation has a negative impact on short-term (1–2 years) firm performance, but an inverted U-shaped curvilinear relationship will develop after about 3 years. (2) Outbound open innovation has a negative impact on short-term firm performance, but leaves a positive effect in the long run. Therefore, enterprises should maintain a moderate inbound open innovation level and improve the degree of outbound open innovation to improve long-term performance.     

Do women borrowers augment financial performance of MFIs?

There is some consensus that depth of outreach and financial performance of Microfinance Institutions (MFI) are positively correlated. A majority of microcredit borrowers are women and since the prevalence of female borrowers is even greater among the very poor, there should be a positive correlation between female borrowers and financial performance. Most of the MFIs target women as preferred borrowers. However, no study to date has investigated the relationship between targeting women and MFI’s sustainability with respect to profitability and yield. Utilizing a panel of 892 MFIs over a period of 10 years, this study shows that increased proportion of women borrowers has a statistically significant positive impact on yield and financial performance of MFIs. Consequently, this article also analyses the implication as to whether female borrowers have better repayment rate than male borrowers.     

How does environmental performance affect financial performance? Evidence from Japanese manufacturing firms

This paper examines the effects of environmental performance on financial performance using the data of Japanese manufacturing firms from 2004 to 2008. As the environmental performance, our study considers the two different environmental issues of waste and greenhouse gas emissions in capturing the effects of corporate environmental management on financial performance. In addition, to clarify how each financial performance responds to a firm's effort in dealing with different environmental issues, we utilize many financial performance indices reflecting various market evaluations. Our estimation results show the different effects of each environmental performance on financial performance. Waste emissions do not generally have significant effects on financial performance. On the other hand, greenhouse gas reduction leads to an increase in financial performance in the whole sample and clean industries, although it does not have significant effects on financial performance in dirty industries. Furthermore, as the firm growth rate increases, the partial effects of waste emissions on financial performance decrease, whereas the partial effects of greenhouse gas emissions on financial performance increase.     

Can tax regulations moderate revenue diversification and reduce financial distress in nonprofit organizations?

As a result of policies to reduce public deficit, nonprofit organizations have been forced to turn to charitable donations in order to diversify their revenue structure and thus reduce their levels of financial distress. Public administrations have supported this process through tax mechanisms designed to provide a legal framework that will encourage private philanthropy. Our aim is to analyse the role of nonprofit tax regulations in moderating the influence of revenue diversification on insolvency risk. To this end, we drew a sample of 406 nonprofit organizations located in Aragon and Navarre, two European regions with different tax regulations, for the period 2008–2018. Our results reveal that some tax regime requirements, such as the organizational purpose, minimum initial endowment, engagement in commercial activity, and accountability and monitoring standards, have a positive impact on revenue diversification and the reduction of financial distress and vulnerability. However, we also detect differences between regions which suggest that tax harmonization for nonprofit organizations remains a challenge.     

Can cross-listing relax financial frictions in trade and equity holdings? A sector-level analysis

Previous studies have documented the positive mutual relationship between bilateral aggregate goods trade and asset holdings. This article examines whether financial frictions play an important role in this mutual relationship. Instrumental variable Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (IV-PPML) estimation method is applied to a new panel of data on US imports and foreign equity holdings in 20 manufacturing sectors from 43 countries over the period 2001–2007. The results confirm the significantly positive relationship between goods trade and equity holdings, and show that financial frictions are an important factor causing this positive correlation. In addition, we find that equity cross-listings in the US stock markets provide external funds to relax financial frictions and promote goods trade. This impact varies with different measures of financial frictions in developing and developed countries.     

Can Google data help predict French youth unemployment?

According to the growing “Google econometrics” literature, Google queries may help predict economic activity. The aim of our paper is to test whether these data can enhance predictions of youth unemployment in France.Because we have weekly series on web search queries and monthly series on unemployment for 15- to 24-year olds, we use the unobserved components approach in order to exploit all available information. Our model is estimated with a modified version of the Kalman filter, taking into account the twofold issue of non-stationarity and multiple frequencies in our data.We find that including Google data improves unemployment predictions relative to a competing model that does not employ search data queries.     

Combining the minimum-variance and equally-weighted portfolios: Can portfolio performance be improved?

It is documented in the literature that due to estimation errors, mean-variance efficient portfolios deliver no higher out-of-sample Sharpe ratios than does the naïve equally-weighted portfolio (EWP). This paper demonstrates how the out-of-sample performance of the minimum-variance portfolio (MVP) can be improved in the presence of estimation errors by combining the MVP and EWP. Our results indicate that an appropriate combination of the MVP and EWP can enhance Sharpe ratios under any scenarios considered, and can also reduce the portfolio risk if short-selling is allowed. However, the combination strategy is not able to generate a lower risk level than the MVP when a short-selling restriction is imposed. We find that the optimal combination coefficient depends on the factors that greatly impact estimation errors in the MVP, including sample size, estimation method, no-short-selling restriction, and length of the out-of-sample period under consideration.     

Does tourism predict macroeconomic performance in Pacific Island countries?

In this paper, we examine whether tourism predicts macroeconomic variables in Pacific Island countries (PICs), namely, Fiji, the Solomon Islands, PNG, Vanuatu, Samoa, and Tonga. We form seven panels of PICs — one full panel of six countries and six panels where, one-by-one, each country is excluded from the panel. We apply the Westerlund and Narayan (2012a) panel regression framework, where the null hypothesis is that visitor arrivals do not predict macroeconomic variables, which we proxy with 11 indicators, for panels of countries. We find that visitor arrivals consistently predict exports and money supply, and to a lesser extent, exchange rates and GDP.     

Can media drive the electorate? The impact of media coverage on voting intentions

A growing literature uses media data to explain perception and behaviour in the economic and political context. In this paper, we investigate how media coverage affects political preferences, namely voting intention. For our empirical analysis, we merge 14 years of human-coded data obtained from leading media in Germany with results of the comprehensive German Politbarometer survey from February 1998 through December 2012. In contrast to the existing literature, we do not utilize access to certain media outlets, but use the tonality of articles and newscasts on political parties and politicians based on human coded media data. To account for endogeneity, we employ instrumental variable probit estimations. In addition, we control for a multitude of (internal) personal characteristics, such as age, and gender, as well as for (external) macroeconomic variables, such as business climate, unemployment, and inflation. The results show that media coverage of a political party has a positive and significant effect on the voting intention for this party. When media outlets cover a political party more positively, the electorate has a greater tendency to vote for it. Hence, we conclude that the electoral success or failure of political parties is at least partially caused by the media coverage on them. This hints on the special responsibility of media in democracies.     

Have food and financial markets integrated?

This article analyses comovements and discusses possibly greater market integration between aggregate food commodity and stock prices in the period 1990 to 2012. Return correlations, price return distributions, cointegration and Granger-causalities are tested in subsamples on monthly FAO Food Price Index and MSCI World Stock Market Index. Empirical results suggest that while there is only weak indication of greater comovements concurrent with structural changes such as changed agricultural policies, new demand due to growth in emerging markets and energy mandates and the financialization of food markets since the early 2000s, they did start to increase substantially in particular during the financial stress of the Lehman crisis and the Great Recession. While structural changes may have amplified price linkages across markets, results do not suggest that they are the key factors for greater price comovements. Instead, the effects of the late-2000s recession as a time of great economic weakness and uncertainty may have changed concurrently the behaviour of both food and financial market participants, such that different market prices exhibit large comovements.     

Can innovation network projects result in efficient performance?

This paper examines the effects that process, structure and governance dimensions of networks have on innovation performance. The main focus of the paper is the multidimensional aspect of innovation networks and how these dimensions affect network performance. Technology management, resource-based, transaction costs and social capital perspectives are applied in the construction of the model variables of each subsystem or dimension analyzed. With results drawn from a sample of 350 project managers identified in the European Union CORDIS database who are actively involved in European innovation networks, we argue that the performance of innovation networks is increased through the suitable design of process, structure and governance subsystems. Empirical findings also show that interactions between these subsystems have a complementary or synergic effect resulting in improved innovation performance.     

Can fiscal rules improve financial market access for developing countries?

A number of countries have introduced fiscal rules to deter fiscal profligacy, enhance the credibility of fiscal policy, and reduce borrowing costs. In this paper, we examine the outcome of fiscal rules in terms of improving financial market access for developing countries. We use entropy balancing and various propensity score matching. We find that the adoption of fiscal rules reduces sovereign bond spreads and increases sovereign debt ratings for a sample of 36 developing countries, which are part of the JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Global (EMBIG), for the period 1993-2014. We explain this finding by the effect of fiscal rules on the credibility of a country's fiscal policy: more credible governments are rewarded in the international financial markets by low sovereign bond spreads and high sovereign debt ratings. These results are robust to a wide set of alternative specifications. We also show that this favorable effect is sensitive to several country structural characteristics. Our findings confirm that the adoption and sound implementation of fiscal rules is an instrument for policy makers to improve developing countries’ financial market access.     

Do insurance activities enhance the performance of financial services holding companies?

Stiroh and Rumble (2006) and Yeager et al. (2007) have argued that extension of banks into nonbanking activities produces no diversification benefits for financial services holding companies (FSHCs) eligible to consolidate banking and insurance products. We investigate the effect of aggregate nonbank activities, as well as two main areas of insurance business, namely agency and underwriting enterprise, on the risk-adjusted performance of FSHCs. Our sample includes a quarterly panel data of FSHCs over the period 2003–2011. We find that the effect of FSHCs’ entry into agency insurance activities on their risk-adjusted returns is dependent on their size; it is positive for FSHCs in the top quartile of our sample (assets greater than $4.495 billions), but negative for smaller and mid-size FSHCs. The effect of underwriting insurance activities on risk-adjusted returns is generally negative or statistically insignificant, except for some of the largest-size firms.     

How does reinsurance and derivatives usage affect financial performance? Evidence from the UK non-life insurance industry

A three-equation structural model is applied in this study to facilitate our examination of 1994–2011 regulatory returns data on UK non-life insurers, from which we find that those insurers using more reinsurance tended to have inferior financial performance, whilst those insurers with a predisposition towards risk management tended to have used both reinsurance and derivatives. We also find that those insurers with high loss ratios were found to have inferior financial performance. Our analysis sheds some light on the relationships between financial performance, reinsurance and derivative usage.     

Acquirer's return and the choice of acquisition targets: does acquisition experience matter?

We study a sample of 6503 UK acquisitions completed between 1985 and 2004 and control for previous deals similarities. Returns for frequent acquirers decrease constantly but they remain positive through high-order deals. We do not detect an improving pattern of returns but, at best, a stable one when the deal is settled for cash. Using ‘characteristics-based’ experience variables, our multivariate analysis shows that the acquirers’ returns are unaffected by prior acquisition experience. However, we find solid evidence for acquirers drawing inferences from prior experience in designing the method of payment, selecting the organizational form of the target firm and engaging in focused acquisitions, which is consistent with learning through acquisitions. The results are robust to various consistency checks.     

Are all financial crises created equal? Wholesale funding and two financial crises

We use financial information on banks from Asia, Europe, North America and Oceania to examine the role of wholesale funding on the transmission of financial crises to bank lending, as well as to study the response of financial institutions in different regions during the crises. We consider the role of wholesale funding during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and Asian Financial Crisis (AFC). Our results suggest that during the GFC, wholesale funding dependence had a negative effect on loans growth across regions, but with substantial regional heterogeneity. The growth of loans from financial institutions in Asia and Europe was consistently sensitive to wholesale funding dependence. Although wholesale funding did not play a significant role in the transmission mechanism of the AFC, a subsample of financial institutions in Asia, who depended more heavily on wholesale funding, experienced a faster loan growth and may have been able to better withstand the crisis.