Conditional and unconditional food demand elasticities in a dynamic multistage demand system

This paper estimates conditional and unconditional demand elasticities in a three stage analysis of consumer demand for food and non-food items in Greece. A dynamic version of the AIDS model is specified and estimated, and full system misspecification tests applied. Correction formulas for price and expenditure elasticities are used to calculate unconditional elasticities from conditional demand sub-systems. All food items rank as price inelastic. Deviations between the calculated conditional and unconditional price and expenditure elasticities are found to be significant, demonstrating the importance of correcting conditional elasticities before they can be used for policy purposes or welfare analyses.     

Disentangling supply and demand shifts: the impacts on world salmon price

To understand price changes, one must determine the relative impact of supply and demand shifts on price. Conditional on predetermined supply and demand elasticities, we retrieve yearly shifts in regional supply and demand. The relative impact on price from each supply and demand shift is determined through an equilibrium displacement model (EDM). This procedure is applied on a yearly basis for the world salmon market in the period 2002 to 2011. The results indicate a large variation in demand and supply growth both over time and between regions. While average annual price impacts from supply or demand shifts from most regions are not statistically significant, price impacts from supply or demand shifts for specific periods are detected in all but one region. This indicates that the use of smooth trend indicators is likely to be inappropriate for measuring supply and demand shifts and their impacts on price. The procedure presented in this article can be a useful instrument for determining the relative impacts of supply and demand shifts on price in any market with unstable price behaviour.     

Intra-Household Resource Allocation, Consumer Preferences and Commodity Tax Reforms: Australian Evidence

Empirical analysis of household expenditure behaviour has traditionally ignored the issue of resource allocation between household members, assuming that they have identical or unitary preferences. This paper relaxes that assumption, develops a household sharing rule and proposes intra-household demand systems that are able to identify differences in the preferences of members from conventional data. The resulting price and expenditure elasticities are used to demonstrate that collective demand models suggest different directions for commodity tax reforms to those implied by the traditional unitary model.     

City size and household food consumption: demand elasticities in Spain

Are food price elasticities different across city sizes? The aim of this article is to estimate expenditure and own-price elasticities for 10 aggregated food product groups using the Spanish Household Budget Survey for the year 2010. These products are the ones for which the survey provides information regarding prices and quantities, thus allowing the application of an Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model with censored data. The estimation procedure allows not only comparisons to be made among households with different levels of income, but also the contribution of residence characteristics to variations in demand. The results confirm that the size of the city in which the household resides has a similar significant and relevant effect on consumption patterns as family income level. This is especially clear with own-price elasticities. In Spain, large central cities show a greater response to price changes than smaller cities or rural peripheral areas.     

Dynamic almost ideal demand systems: an empirical analysis of alcohol expenditure in Ireland

This paper presents a dynamic form of the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS). Three versions of the static AIDS model are employed to determine the preferred long-run equilibrium model and represents the short-run dynamics by an error correction mechanism. This estimation procedure is then applied to alcohol expenditure in Ireland. The estimated point elasticities are consistent with previous studies and a priori expectations. Beer and spirits are found to be price inelastic in both the short and long run. While wine is price inelastic in the short run and price elastic in the long run.     

The market power of OPEC 1973–2001

We apply a multi-equation dynamic econometric model on monthly data to test if the behaviour of OPEC as a whole or different sub-groups of the cartel is consistent with the characteristics of dominant producers on the world crude oil market in the period 1973–2001. Our results indicate that the producers outside OPEC can be described as competitive producers, taking the oil price as given and maximizing profits. The OPEC members do not fit the behaviour of price-taking producers. Our findings of low residual demand price elasticities for OPEC underpin the potential market power of the producer group, and are in line with the results in some recent energy studies. On the other hand, our findings indicate that neither OPEC nor different sub-groups of the cartel can be characterized as a dominant producer in the period 1973–1994. However, we find that the characteristics of a dominant producer to some extent fit OPEC-Core as from 1994. Thus, although OPEC clearly has affected the market price, the producer group has not behaved as a pure profit-maximizing dominant producer.     

The supply and demand for imports and exports in a simultaneous model

Previous studies on the behaviour of aggregate exports and imports have tended to ignore the simultaneous relationship between quantity and price. This paper investigates the price responsiveness of export and import demand and supply in eight African countries. The results indicate that export demand price elasticities are smaller when the sample is African. The import supply and demand elasticities were found to be generally large. The Marshall–Lerner condition of balance of payment stability is found to be easily satisfied. A positively sloped function of export supply is found to exist for a majority of countries in the sample. The average time lag of export supply is found to be about a year. The disequilibrium model is found to be more appropriate for import demand, import supply and export supply.     

British tourism demand elasticities in Mediterranean countries

We use the almost ideal demand system (AIDS) model developed by Deaton and Muellbauer (1980) to estimate tourism demand elasticities for a number of Mediterranean countries (Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Spain and Turkey) in relation to tourists originating from the United Kingdom during the period 1963 to 2009. Using the restrictions imposed by theory, we find that the model is able to explain developments in market shares reasonably well, despite the large and at times sudden changes in market shares over the sample period. Our share estimates indicate that while Spain and Portugal managed to keep a stable market share over time, Malta and especially Italy lost market share to Cyprus, Greece and Turkey. Overall, we observe that Italy and Spain have the lowest own-price elasticities, whereas Greece, Portugal, Spain and Turkey are expenditure inelastic holiday destinations. We also improve over the traditional treatment of the AIDS model in the literature by studying the stability of the estimated elasticities over time using recursive estimates. The results indicate that some elasticities are indeed time varying and highlight the potential pitfalls of assuming fixed and stable elasticities over a long period, as is customary in the tourism literature.     

Consumer behaviour in India: An application of the Rotterdam demand system

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the extent to which the observed data support the postulates of neoclassical theory of consumer behaviour. The absolute price version of the Rotterdam model has been estimated for rural and urban areas of India separately. The results indicate a trade off between theoretical consistency and goodness of fit. The symmetry, but not homogeneity, conditions are found to be empirically valid in rural India. All the other hypotheses are rejected both in rural and urban areas of India. Frequent violation of convexity conditions is also observed. The estimated marginal budget shares, income and price elasticities show marked differences in consumption patterns of rural and urban consumers in India. The effect of foodgrains price rise on the demand for various items is also analysed.     

Modelling export equations using an unobserved component model: the case of the Euro Area and its competitors

This article analyses developments in the external sector for the Euro Area and its major competitors and quantifies the dynamic contributions of the key determinants of trade to export volume behaviour. In addition to the traditional variables affecting export volumes, price and foreign demand, an unobserved component in the form of a time-varying trend enters the export equations to capture underlying non-price competitiveness. The structural modelling approach used within an error correction framework allows isolating the different sources of trade fluctuations and to better assess the contribution of each set of variables to export flows. The findings confirm that stochastic trends are present as a result of technical change and other exogenous factors driving export flows, and that a failure to account for these trends will lead to biased estimates of long-run price elasticities.     

Impacts of meat product recalls on consumer demand in the USA

The impact of meat product recall events on consumer demand (beef, pork, poultry, and other consumption goods) in the USA is tested empirically. Beef, pork, and poultry recall indices are constructed from both the Food Safety Inspection Service's meat recall events and from newspaper reports over the period 1982–1998. Following previous product recall studies, recall indices are incorporated as shift variables in consumers’ demand functions. Estimating an absolute price version of the Rotterdam demand model, findings indicate that Food Safety Inspection Service's meat recall events significantly impact demand, and newspaper reports do not. Moreover, although elasticities related to recall events are significant they are small in magnitude relative to price and income effects. Any favourable effects on the demands of meat substitutes for a recall are offset by a more general negative effect on meat demand. The general negative effect indicates a shift out of meat to non-meat consumption goods.     

Regional consumption of antibiotics: A demand system approach

Through this paper, we have attempted to model the demand for different classes of antibiotics used for respiratory infections in outpatient care in Switzerland using a spatial version of the linear approximate Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model. This model takes spatial dependency into account by means of spatial lags of antibiotic budget shares. We control for the health status of patients and the potential harmful effects of antibiotic use in terms of bacterial resistance. Elasticities to socioeconomic determinants of consumption and own- and cross-price elasticities between different groups of antibiotic have also been computed in this paper. Significant cross-price elasticities are found between newer or more expensive generations and older or less expensive generations of antibiotics.     

A dynamic model of demand for Mediterranean tourism

A dynamic econometric model was specified in order to estimate tourism consumption changes by Northern European countries and the USA for major Mediterranean destinations. The model employed a flexible framework for modelling short-term dynamics as well as the long run effects of a range of variables of specific interest to the countries considered. The estimated model provided useful information for tourism demand. The income elasticities demonstrated considerable differences in tourism demand preferences between origin countries and between traditional and newly developing destinations. The own and substitute price elasticities indicated the importance of effective prices in determining tourism receipts of the destinations.     

Estimation of an implied price elasticity of demand through current pricing practices

Researchers have long pursued better methods to estimate price elasticity of market-level demand. Due to a plethora of empirical problems, the estimates produced in many empirical studies leave researchers with wide confidence intervals that do little to clarify demand conditions. As a result, these estimates are of limited practical use to the firm facing a firm-level demand. Here, a non-statistical methodology based on seller optimization behaviour is applied that creates an ‘implied elasticity’ of firm-level demand that is robust, intuitively plausible and free of oppressive data requirements. These elasticities are tested in an applied setting against pricing managers’ surveyed estimates for customer price sensitivity for freight rail transportation services and it is found that the estimate is consistent with their pricing behaviour. This methodology is recommended for creating a simple, plausible starting point estimate for firm-level price elasticities, or using this calculation as an input to statistical studies.     

参考价格影响下的两阶段回报型众筹定价策略研究

在众筹发起过程中,策略型消费者将对比众筹价格与零售价格,选择最优购买时机。基于此背景,构建了参考价格效应影响下的两阶段众筹定价模型,设计了众筹发起人的两阶段动态定价策略。发起人根据消费者的耐心程度和参考价格效应强度,选择是否公布零售价格,以及溢价或降价销售。利用理性预期均衡理论和逆向归纳法,得到了发起人与消费者博弈的均衡价格和最优发起策略。结论表明,发起人的策略选择并非单一的,同时受到消费者耐心程度和参考价格效应强度的影响。为众筹发起人的两阶段价格决策提供了理论参考和管理学建议。     

A tale of two Italian cities: brand-level milk demand and price competition

We apply the BLP random coefficient logit model demand model to fluid milk sales data from two north-south Italian cities: Turin and Naples. By virtue of their location and socioeconomic differences, these cities provide a natural experiment for contrasting consumer choices and retail market power related to milk physical and marketing characteristics. Results reveal that, regardless of location, consumers negatively value price increases, fat content and ultra-high temperature (UHT) treatment. However, location matters with respect to brand and type of milk purchased. While in Turin (the higher-income region) demand for the leading manufacturers’ brands is the most price inelastic, in Naples consumers have the lowest price elasticities in case of cheaper milk, often small manufacturer or private label brands. Unlike previous studies, we do not find price elasticities for private labels to be consistently lower (or markups to be higher) compared to manufacturer brands, indicating that private labels have reached maturity in these markets. Further, while demand for fresh milk is more price inelastic in Turin, it is more inelastic for UHT milk in Naples. Likewise, markups and Lerner indexes are higher for fresh milk in Turin and for UHT in Naples corresponding to the more inelastic demands under Bertrand price competition.     

Universal telecommunication service: A world perspective

Worldwide telecommunications demand is estimated in models for business and residential mainline telephone, and for mobile telephone service using separate models for developed and developing countries for the period 1996–2001. We test for cross-price elasticities between mainline and mobile service and find that the results are generally suggestive of current complementary relationships. We find residential monthly price elasticity to be no different than zero for a sample of developing countries, but the connection elasticity is statistically significant. Mobile monthly service elasticity is much larger than those for mainline service, suggesting that universal service in developing countries might be promoted more effectively with subsidies for mobile service. Income elasticities for the residential model are modest while the mobile service model income elasticity for developing countries is much higher. Expanding markets, income growth and enhanced education may be the ultimate universal service promoters.     

Lottery pricing and price elasticity dispersion in the UK and Canada

We estimate effective price elasticities for different quantiles of the demand distribution of the UK National Lottery and the Canadian Lotto 649. We show that price elasticities vary significantly from draw to draw and have a tendency to increase with lottery participation and jackpot size. Our findings indicate that setting lottery rules on the basis of mean effective price elasticities should be faced with caution because expected profits are negatively related to the evident variation of elasticities among lottery draws. We also simulate alternative active rollover distributions and show that limiting the rollover accumulation by withholding portions and ploughing them back in future nonrollover draws is potentially profitable.     

Kalman filter and the demand for cigarettes

kalman filter estimates of price, income and advertising elasticities are presented. An analysis of structural change in the demand for cigarettes in the US for the period 1929–86 is made. Estimated price and income elasticities are generally smaller, and the advertising elasticity larger, than estimates previously found. Cigarette demand is inelastic with respect to price and income, and advertising elasticity is statistically insignificant for the most part. Furthermore, both income and price elasticities decline over time while advertising elasticity tends to rise. Four time periods where structural change has occurred are identified. The health scare reports and the Fairness Doctrine Act have a significant impact on per capita cigarette consumption.     

Meat and fish consumption patterns in Saudi Arabia

This study analyses the demand for meat (beef, chicken and lamb) and fish in Saudi Arabia in a system-wide framework using data for the period 1985–2010. A preliminary data analysis reveals that, in Saudi Arabia, the relative consumption of beef, chicken and fish has a positive growth, while lamb has a negative growth. The average relative price growth rates of beef, chicken and fish are negative, while that of lamb is positive. The expenditure shares of beef, chicken and fish have increased while that of lamb has fallen. The estimation results of the demand system reveal that there is an autonomous trend out of lamb into beef, chicken and fish. The implied income elasticities indicate that beef, lamb and fish are considered to be luxuries, while chicken is a necessity. The demand for all meat products and fish are price inelastic. These elasticities are key inputs for policy analysts in terms of devising policies in relation to meat production, meat imports, taxation and food security issues in Saudi Arabia. The usefulness of the implied elasticities is demonstrated by simulating the consumption of beef, chicken, lamb and fish under various policy scenarios.