Konjunkturschlaglicht: Ergebnis der Steuerschätzung

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Konjunkturschlaglicht: Ergebnis der Steuersch?tzung     

Steuerschätzung 2013 bis 2018: deutlich steigendes Steueraufkommen

According to the latest official tax estimate, tax revenue will continue to rise in the coming years under favourable economic conditions. The tax receipts will expand from €600 bn in 2012 to roughly €732 bn in 2018. The tax-to-GDP ratio is projected to increase to 23% by the end of the forecast period (2012: 22.5%). This results from the effect of the progressive structure of the income tax schedule on revenues. The tax revenue estimate shows that the effects of fiscal drag, which have been present since 2010, could be eliminated in the next few years.     

Die Steuerschätzung in Deutschland als Mehr-Ebenen-Aufgabe

Seit 1955 werden durch den Arbeitskreis „Steuersch?tzungen“ in Deutschland zweimal j?hrlich Sch?tzungen des Steueraufkommens vorgenommen. Diese Sch?tzungen bilden auch die Grundlage für die Berechnungen der L?nder und Gemeinden. Wie wirkt sich dies auf die Gebietshaushalte aus? Wie wird die Sch?tzung in der Praxis regionalisiert? Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Horst Zimmermann, 74, ist emeritierter Professor für Finanzwissenschaft an der Universit?t Marburg und Mitglied des Wissenschaftlichen Beirats beim Bundesministerium der Finanzen. Der Verfasser dankt dem Projekt „Reform der ?ffentlichen Verwaltung in der Ukraine“ der deutschen Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) für die Unterstützung bei der Erarbeitung dieses Beitrags.     

50 Jahre Steuerschätzung: Die Notwendigkeit einer undankbaren Aufgabe

Der vom Bundesministerium der Finanzen im Jahre 1955 eingerichtete Arbeitskreis Steuerschätzungen besteht mittlerweile 50 Jahre und tritt im Mai 2005 in Berlin zu seiner 125. Sitzung zusammen. Was sind die Aufgaben des Arbeitskreises? Mit welchen Problemen muss er sich bei seiner Arbeit auseinandersetzen?Dr. Klaus-Peter Fox, 60, ist Dozent für die Fächer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Finanzwissenschaft an der Fachhochschule für Verwaltung des Saarlandes. Er ist seit Herbst 1983 Mitglied des Arbeitskreises Steuerschätzungen. Er vertritt ausschließlich seine persönliche Meinung.     

Steuerschätzung 2012 bis 2017: günstige Aufkommensperspektiven

In October 2012 the Working Party on Tax Revenue Forecasting released a tax revenue estimate for the current year and the following five years based on the macroeconomic benchmark figures contained in the German government’s autumn projection. Tax revenues will expand from €573.4 bn in 2011 to €706.6 bn in 2017. The tax ratio is projected to increase from 22.1% to 23.1%. The planned reduction of the fiscal drag in 2013 and 2014 has not been included. However, the reduction is compatible with the fiscal consolidation, because Germany is poised to achieve a budget that is close to balanced in structural terms this year.     

Ins Schwarze getroffen? — Zur Prognosegenauigkeit der Steuerschätzungen

The article analyses the accuracy of the tax revenue estimates in Germany by comparing the predicted values and the actual tax revenues. Periodic adjustments are also made to take changes in tax law into account. The focus is on both specific types of taxes and on a longer term forecast horizon. The results show that the overall quality of the estimates is good and has improved in recent years. However, there are problems with profit related taxes, which are difficult to predict.     

Beeinflussen Politiker das Ergebnis von nationalen Steuerschätzungen?

As voters increasingly favour sound public finances, solid budgets serve as an important quality signal. National tax revenue forecasts are a core element of national budget plans. Therefore, politicians might be tempted to influence them strategically. Examining 18 OECD countries from 1996 to 2012, the authors explore whether national tax revenue forecasts are manipulated by politicians. Their evidence points to partisan politics and the influence of fragmentation. Surprisingly and in contradiction to the theoretical conclusions from the ‘common pool’ problem, more fragmented governments or parliaments seem to underestimate tax revenues. There is no empirical evidence to support opportunistic behaviour, i.e. that tax revenue forecasts lead to political business cycles.     

Treibhausgasneutralität 2045/2050: Verschärfung der nationalen und der europäischen Klimaziele

Wirtschaftsdienst - Auf nationaler und auf europäischer Ebene sind die zuvor bestehenden Klimaziele deutlich verschärft worden. Die neuen Vorgaben, mit denen in Deutschland 2045 und in...     

Altschuldenentlastung der Bundesländer: Verteilungswirkungen ausgewählter Vorschläge

Due to large public deficits in the past, many German states face high interest payments in their budgets today. Therefore, a restructuring of this outstanding debt will be a major topic in forthcoming negotiations on the future design of the fiscal equalisation scheme. This article presents some proposals that are currently being discussed and calculates their redistributional effects between the federal government and the states. It is shown that all models would lead to a significantly higher burden for the federal budget. The only way to afford this is either to increase the value added tax rates or to keep the so-called solidarity surcharge that was originally introduced to finance transfers to East Germany.     

Grunderwerbsteuer im Länderfinanzausgleich: Umverteilung der Zusatzlast der Besteuerung

Apart from Bavaria and Saxony, all Federal States in Germany have considerably raised property transfer taxes in recent years. There is empirical evidence that increasing property transfer taxes leads to lower turnover on real estate markets. The corresponding negative fiscal impact is partly counterbalanced in the German fiscal equalisation scheme. This paper explicates the relationship between tax hikes and the transfer volume and calculates the responses of the fiscal equalisation scheme in various scenarios.     

Austritt einzelner Länder aus der Währungsunion: ein Szenario

The exit of a member state from the eurozone is often depicted as a catastrophic event that would lead to uncontrollable havoc in the financial markets. In this contribution, an alternative scenario is developed based on a consensual understanding. It describes a multi-year transition period during which all member states’ payments were automatically realised on the basis of a basket consisting of the euro and the new currency. In the remaining eurozone countries, the relative weight of the euro would increase over time, while it would decrease in the exit state. The hope is that the possibility of a smooth exit path would increase the bargaining power to change the governance rules of the eurozone.