收入分配与经济增长——基于消费需求视角的研究

收入分配会对经济增长产生何种影响,一直是经济学中相当重要的问题。通过对收入分配——消费需求——经济增长这一传导机制进行理论分析,表明收入分配将会通过消费需求这一渠道影响经济增长。采用1990~2007年中国经济的相关数据对消费需求与经济增长、收入分配与消费需求的关系进行了实证分析,分析表明收入分配调整将会对经济长期稳定增长产生重要作用。在此基础上提出了收入分配政策的分类和选择范围,并对部分收入政策工具的效果进行了模拟。     

Estimating the marginal propensity to consume using the distributions of income,consumption, and wealth

Studies of economic inequality almost always separately examine income, consumption, and wealth inequality, and hence, miss the important synergy amongst the three measures explicit in the life-cycle budget constraint. These joint distributions, however, are important in evaluating macroeconomic impacts of changes in income because the response may differ across the wealth distribution. This heterogeneity in the response to income changes can have significant impact on the effectiveness of government fiscal policy. Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics from 1999–2013, we examine how the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) differs across the wealth distribution. We find that the MPC is lower at higher wealth quintiles, indicating that low wealth households cannot smooth consumption as much as other households. This implies that increasing wealth inequality likely reduces aggregate consumption, which, in turn, could limit economic growth.     

CHANGES IN CANADIAN FAMILY INCOME AND FAMILY CONSUMPTION INEQUALITY BETWEEN 1978 AND 1992

This paper uses Canadian cross-sectional income and expenditure data to examine changes in the distribution of family income and family consumption during the period 1978 to 1992. Family consumption data are analyzed because in the presence of intertemporal consumption smoothing, the cross-sectional distribution of consumption may characterize the distribution of lifetime wealth. I find that both Canadian family income inequality and Canadian family consumption inequality moved countercyclically. In addition, both Canadian family income inequality and Canadian family consumption inequality trended upward over the period; however, the change in family consumption inequality was much smaller than the change in family income inequality, suggesting that inequality in the distribution of lifetime wealth may have changed much less than is suggested by changes in the distribution of income.     

The Image of Australia. Perceptions of the Australian Economy from the Eighteenth to the Twentieth Century

Recent institutionalist and post-Keynesian work on business cycles continues with the traditional institutionalist supposition that financial bubbles drive cycles; however there has been a growing sense in the literature that household consumption, not business investment, has become the key variable. This paper will show how this is a change from historical institutional theory and it will then discuss how this change pushes income distribution toward a more central role in explaining current cycle dynamics. Specifically, this paper argues that much of the economic growth over the last two decades can be attributed to the top two quintiles borrowing more and the current slow growth can be attributed to high quintile households increasing their consumption while middle income households are continuing to deleverage.     

INCOME AND CONSUMPTION DISTRIBUTION TRENDS IN THE PHILIPPINES, 1950–70*

Unlike most developing countries, the Philippines has had several (four) reasonably comparable family income and expenditure surveys, covering a reasonable period of time (15 years). This study draws on those surveys and on wage data in an attempt to judge how, if at all, the distribution of income has been changing. The household survey data shows a declining share of both income and consumption for the top income groups; for the bottom quintile the share of recorded income fell while that of recorded consumption rose. When possible biases of the data are allowed for, it is hard to argue that either a narrowing or widening of income differentials occurred over these years. Real wages of a number of important occupations appear to have fallen, however. Only a partial reconciliation of the trends indicated by these wage series and the income trends for various occupational groups implicit in the household survey data was possible, indicating either data problems or the need for more subtle interpretations of the data. Since structural change in the labour force has been rapid (an increasing share being found in the high income occupations as time passed), declining wage rates for certain lower income groups cannot be taken to imply a general worsening of distribution. Our final conclusion is that distribution has probably changed little, and is about as likely to have changed one way as the other.     

Some tests for money illusion and distribution effects in the aggregate consumption function

The hypothesis that the aggregate consumption displays money illusion in the sense that consumers mistake an increase in nominal incomes for an increase in real incomes and thus consume more out of given real incomes in response to a rise in the price level and the hypothesis that the aggregate consumption depends on the distribution of income are tested using Finnish annual and quarterly data. The money illusion hypothesis is rejected by annual data, while it meets success with quarterly data. The hypothesis of distribution effects in the aggregate consumption is supported by annual data. Particularly, equalizing the distribution of income would increase the aggregate consumption. In view of the quality of data on personal income distribution this conclusion cannot be regarded as more than tentative.     

Consumption Inequality in China: Theory and Evidence from the China Health and Nutrition Survey

We investigate consumption inequality in China both theoretically by constructing a theoretical model that delineates the transmission channels by which income shocks affect consumption and empirically through an Unequally Spaced Dynamic Panel Data model estimation. We find that China is experiencing consumption inequality with the full partial insurance of consumption against both permanent and transitory income shocks, although the impact of both types of shock are larger than the case of the United States. The results are due to precautionary savings motives of the Chinese. We further document how income becomes more dispersed in China and show how the family background of a child affects his outcome to a large extent. Policy implications based on our findings are proposed.     

THE SOCIAL SIGNIFICANCE OF INCOME DISTRIBUTION STATISTICS

In both political discussions and scientific literature the income distribution has come to occupy a central position for the consideration of social welfare and economic equalization. It has been assumed that an individual's income reflects his consumption opportunities and therefore his standard of living or economic welfare. The thesis of this paper is, however, that there are reasons for being quite pessimistic about drawing meaningful conclusions from income distribution data. As illustrated by the use of Swedish data, the distribution of income gives an extremely incomplete picture of the distribution of consumption for a wide variety of definitional and statistical reasons. The distribution of consumption, furthermore, cannot be transformed into a corresponding distribution of welfare, since there is no well defined concept of welfare. The treatment of public consumption in empirical analysis of the distribution of welfare also raises problems. The paper closes with the presentation of the conceptual basis for an alternative to the traditional method of analyzing the distribution of income.     

中国农户的收入风险应对机制与消费波动:来自陕西的经验证据

在正规风险应对机制缺失的背景下,中国农户很大程度上依靠社会网络内的风险统筹和跨时期消费平滑等自发机制来应对收入风险,缓解消费波动。本文运用logistic回归方法,对来自陕西1 151户农户的问卷调查数据进行了计量分析,检验了两类风险应对机制对消费波动的影响。经验分析结果表明:在农户缓解收入风险所带来的消费波动的过程中,社会网络内的风险统筹仍然发挥着较大的作用;跨时期消费平滑机制也发挥着重要作用,但从内部结构来看,通过储蓄实现的自我保险的作用最为重要,信贷市场借款的作用较为有限。     

The income–pollution relationship and the role of income distribution: An analysis of Swedish household data

The main purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between pollution and income at household level. The study is motivated by the recent literature emphasizing the importance of income distribution for the aggregate relation between pollution and income. The main findings from previous studies are that if the individual pollution–income relationship is non-linear, then aggregate pollution for, say, a whole country, will depend not only on average income, but also on how income is distributed. To achieve our objective we formulate a model for determining the choice of consumption of goods in different types of household. Furthermore we link the demand model to emission functions for various goods. The theoretical analysis shows that without imposing very restrictive assumptions on preferences and the emission functions, it is not possible to determine a priori the slope or the curvature of the pollution–income relation. The empirical analysis shows that, given the model used, the pollution–income relation has a positive slope in Sweden and is strictly concave for all three pollutants under study (CO₂, SO₂, NO_x), at least in the neighbourhood of the observed income for an average household. We also show that altering the prevailing income distribution, holding average income constant, will affect aggregate emissions in the sense that an equalization of incomes will give rise to an increase in emissions. One implication is then that the development of aggregate pollution due to growth depends not only on the income level, but also on how growth is distributed.     

收入代际分配结构与我国社会消费倾向——一个基于Diamond模型的社会消费总量模型分析

基于Diamond模型的社会消费总量模型显示收入代际分配结构影响社会消费倾向。产出对消费的影响通过工资和资产收益率两个渠道传递。我国青年人群收入占社会总收入的比重过大,消费对当期产出过度平滑,导致持续下滑的低消费率和国内有效需求不足。发展资本市场可以提高国内有效需求。     

THE BUILT-IN FLEXIBILITY OF INCOME AND CONSUMPTION TAXES IN NEW ZEALAND

This paper provides estimates of individual and aggregate revenue elasticities of income and consumption taxes in New Zealand, based on the 2001 tax structure and expenditure patterns. Using analytical expressions for revenue elasticities at the individual and aggregate levels, together with a simulated income distribution, values for New Zealand were obtained. Results using equi-proportional income changes suggest that the aggregate income and consumption tax revenue elasticities are both fairly constant as mean income increases, at around 1.3 and 0.95 respectively. This latter estimate assumes that increases in disposable income are accompanied by approximately proportional increases in total expenditure. If there is a tendency for the savings proportion to increase as disposable income increases, a somewhat lower total consumption tax revenue elasticity, of around 0.9, is obtained for 2001 income levels. However, non-equiproportional income changes are more realistic. Allowing for regression towards the geometric mean income reduces these elasticities, giving an elasticity for income and consumption taxes combined that is only slightly above unity. Examination of the tax-share weighted expenditure elasticities for various goods also revealed that, despite the adoption of a broad based GST at a uniform rate in New Zealand, the persistence of various excises has an important effect on the overall consumption tax revenue elasticity, especially for individuals at relatively low income levels.     

Give and Take Between Households and the State: Development and Application of A Benefaction–Contribution Ratio

This study defines a “Benefaction–Contribution Ratio” (BCR), describing the extent to which households are net beneficiaries of or contributors to the economy in relation to income and consumption. Such issues are central to assessment and targeting of policies such as social welfare and taxation. We apply the ratio to 21,144 South African households. South Africa employs various taxation‐funded social grants and subsidized services. A central question is how such transfers affect real household income and consumption. We find that the constitution of social transfers as a function of tax adjusted earned income significantly augments household buying power. Furthermore, we hypothesize and find a negative curvilinear shape which has implications for design of taxation and welfare. This constitution and distribution of this ratio may be useful for international benchmarking and household planning, and as an economic predictor of outcomes such as job seeking, entrepreneurial behavior, family planning, migration, and tax evasion.     

Consumption dynamics under information processing constraints

This paper studies how “rational inattention” (RI)—a type of information processing constraint proposed by Sims [Sims, C.A., 2003. Implications of rational inattention, Journal of Monetary Economics 50 (3), 665–690]—affects the joint dynamics of consumption and income in a permanent income model with general income processes. Specifically, I propose an analytical approach to solve the multivariate permanent income model with RI and examine its implications for optimal consumption, saving, and welfare. It is shown that RI can affect the relative volatility of consumption and provide an endogenous propagation mechanism that disentangles the short-run and long-run responses of consumption to exogenous income shocks. I also explore how aggregation reduces the impact of the RI-induced endogenous noise on consumption and thus increases the smoothness of aggregate consumption. Finally, I compare RI with four alternative hypotheses (habit formation, signal extraction, robustness, and inattentiveness) by examining their implications for the joint behavior of consumption and income.     

On the distributional effects of income in an aggregate consumption relation

Abstract .  In this paper we analyse the influence of characteristics of the income distribution in modelling aggregate consumption expenditure. We model the aggregate consumption relation of a heterogeneous population, using a statistical distributional approach of aggregation, and apply it to UK-Family Expenditure Survey data. A bootstrap test based on a non-parametric estimation methodology, which accounts for the presence of continuous and discrete variables, suggests that the mean and the dispersion of the income distribution significantly influence aggregate consumption expenditure. Also, the parameters of the aggregate relation are time varying. These findings have implications for constructing empirically sound models of aggregate consumption expenditure.     

Redistribution,inequality, and efficiency with credit constraints: Implications for South Africa

We develop a model that jointly determines the distribution of income and the aggregate macrodynamics. We identify multiple channels through which alternative public policies such as transfers, consumption and income taxes, and public investment will affect the inequality-efficiency trade-off. Income tax and transfers have both a direct income and an indirect substitution effect; a consumption tax has only the latter. We present extensive numerical simulations motivated by the South African National Development Plan 2030, the objective of which is to reduce soaring inequality and increase per capita GDP. Our results illustrate how the judicious combination of social grants and a consumption tax may help achieve these targets. The simulations also suggest that the sharp decline in the private-public capital ratio, coupled with a high degree of complementarity between public and private capital may help explain the persistence of market inequality in South Africa during the last two decades.     

Imperfect capital markets and life-cycle consumption

This paper develops a long-range consumption planning model which, unlike conventional life-cycle theory, admits a disparity between borrowing and lending rates of interest. It is shown that, when capital markets are imperfect, optimal consumption depends not only upon an arithmetic average of the household's intertemporal income distribution, the traditional life-cycle income variable, but also upon current income and higher-order moments of that income distribution. The consumption function is estimated using the 1967–1968 CEDE budget survey of four major Colombian cities. A test is made to determine whether the assumption of perfect capital markets is acceptable for empirical approximation. The results strongly indicate that, for households in middle and lower income classes, the explanatory power of the consumption function can be raised by introducing a more flexible life- time budget constraint. The model is then estimated and used to compute the marginal consumption responses of Colombian households to transitory and permanent income changes.     

The permanent income hypothesis in underdeveloped economies:: Additional evidence

Laumas and Laumas find no support for the permanent income hypothesis in recent work on a consumption function for India. However, permanent income has been used not only in consumption but also in demand for money functions. Estimates of demand for money in 10 Asian LDCs indicate that substitution of permanent for current income is warranted. In particular, the estimate for India is improved substantially by the use of permanent instead of current income. Furthermore, the weights obtained from a polynomial lag distribution are almost identical to the Laumas' exponential weights with which they construct permanent income.     

简论收入分配差距在消费层面的表现

从我国居民消费与分配差距间实证关系、居民的消费倾向、年底人民币储蓄余额和最终消费支出等几个方面,表述了收入分配差距在消费层面存有不"和谐"因素.认为收入分配差距过大,对经济增长的影响主要表现在有效需求上,即当前我们所抓的国内需求上;而有效需求,尤其是有效需求中的消费需求,也从一个侧面体现着收入分配差距状况.     

Inequality of Income and Consumption in the U.S.: Measuring the Trends in Inequality from 1984 to 2011 for the Same Individuals

This paper examines the distribution of income and consumption in the U.S. using one dataset that obtains measures of both income and consumption from the same set of individuals. We develop a set of inequality measures that show the increase in inequality during the past 27 years using the 1984–2011 Consumer Expenditure Survey. We find that the trends in income and consumption inequality are similar between 1984 and 2006, and diverge during and after the Great Recession. For the entire 27‐year period we find that consumption inequality increases almost as much as does income inequality.