中国经济转型成本的阶段性特征分析

我国经济转型依次显现出"转型与发展同步,绩效掩盖成本","转型目标摇摆,发展受阻,成本凸现","体制初步定型,发展基本同步,绩效与成本共生",体制基本定型,成本合理分摊,经济和谐发展"的阶段性特征。文章对每个阶段的特征进行了描述,并揭示了形成机理。     

河北省经济转型与就业结构调整问题探析

河北省目前正处于经济转型时期,由于就业结构调整滞后于经济转型的步伐,造成了我省劳动力市场过剩,大学生、城镇失业人员、农村剩余劳动力等群体就业困难,严重影响了经济转型。本文提出相应的解决对策,为进一步加快经济转型、扩大就业提供发展方向。     

资本成本敏感性、代理成本与增值税转型的研究

以东北地区实行增值税转型政策为制度背景,基于我国2001年－2007年规模以上工业企业数据库,实证检验转型政策对不同所有制企业的资本成本敏感性和代理成本的影响。结果表明,该政策对不同性质类型企业的投资资本成本敏感性都有所提高,但国有企业和集体企业的提高更显著;市场化改革也促进了该政策对资本成本敏感性的提高的影响;增值税转型政策也使企业的代理成本显著下降,并使税务机关发挥了良好的外部治理作用。     

中国经济转型成本的测度:1978～2007年

作为大规模制度变迁的经济转型,在取得收益的同时也必然付出一定的成本。中国经济转型30年来取得了巨大的成就,但随着中国经济向后转型时期的迈进,原来被推迟、忽略、潜伏的矛盾日益显现,经济转型成本激升成为目前不得不关注和需要着力解决的重要命题。本文在界定了经济转型成本的内涵和分析维度的基础上,通过设计经济转型成本的测度指标体系,采用AHP统计技术方法测度了1978～2007年中国经济转型成本的综合指数。在此基础上,结合使用HP滤波法、Fisher最优分割法,以及指数平滑法分析了30年来经济转型成本的变动趋势及阶段性变化特征,并对未来经济转型成本做出了预测。     

政府干预、资本成本与资本结构动态调整研究

正一、引言国内外学者关于资本结构调整问题的研究中主要遵循调整机会和调整成本影响因素两条思路展开。Fisheretal(1989)在Mrcus和Mcdonald(1985)的基础上着重强调资本结构调整成本的重要性,他们认为只有在资本结构调整后产生的税收成本节约数额大     

转型时期财政政策与货币政策的协调与配合

财政政策与货币政策是国家宏观经济管理的两大政策工具。财政政策与货币政策,对社会经济诸多方面,渗透和影响较多、较大,两无论是在微观经济领域还是在宏观经济领域或某项特殊的经济政策执行都互相影响、互相制约,也互相促进、相辅相成。因此,在社会经济生活中,做好财政政策与货币政策协调配合,对国民经济的发展有着十分重要的意义。本人仅就当前我国经济转型时期财政政策与货币政策的协调与配合的几个问题谈几点认识。     

调整成本与资本结构的动态调整:基于中国上市公司的实证检验

文章以1995年～2007年中国上市公司为样本,采用Logit模型以及多元线性回归模型经检验发现,具有股票市场再融资资格、所面临的股票市场时机较好、所在地区的市场化进程较高、所面临的财务困境较小的企业其进行资本结构调整的可能性较高,相应的调整速度也较大。这种统计关系不随所采用的资本结构以及各影响因素的代理变量不同而改变,保持了良好的稳健性。文章的实证研究结果表明,调整成本及其影响因素确实会影响企业资本结构的动态调整行为。     

经济转型升级与企业人力资源调整

国务院总理李克强提出,用勇气和智慧打造中国经济的升级版,并阐述了打造中国经济升级版的重点方向.这对中国的经济必将产生重大影响,本文试图以某服装厂为例,来说明企业应如何分析和认识这些外部环境变化对自己经营战略的影响,并进而引起人力资源管理战略的调整,希望对大家有所启示和帮助.一、中国经济升级版的重点方向1.以新型城镇化释放内需潜力.打造中国经济升级版,首先要立足于扩大内需,这是在风云变幻中确保发展能够不断持续的重要基础.而扩大内需,最大的潜力在城镇化.     

经济转型时期的计划管理

一、实现经济转型离不开计划管理 我国正在向市场经济体制迈进,我们必须认识到,市场经济体制同计划经济体制这两种配置资源方式,在不同的经济体制下都同时存在,缺一不可。因为,建立社会主义市场经济体制,不仅不排斥计划手段,而且必须借助它来弥补市场机制的不足。 计划经济和市场经济作为资源配置方式,各有其优缺点。计划配置资源是国家对经济活动的自觉干预或调节,是主观建立于客观基础上的经济行为,其强度大于市场机制,能够集中人力、物力、财力进行大项目、大工程建设,能以社会整体利益为背景来协调经济的发展,能够纠正市场…     

Pooling forecasts in linear rational expectations models

Estimating linear rational expectations models in a limited-information setting requires replacing the expectations of future, endogenous variables either with instrumented, actual values or with forecast survey data. Applying the method of Gottfries and Persson [Empirical examinations of the information sets of economic agents. Quarterly Journal of Economics 103, 251–259], I show how to augment these methods with actual, future values of the endogenous variables to improve statistical efficiency. The method is illustrated with an application to the US hybrid new Keynesian Phillips curve, where traditional, lagged instruments and the median forecast from the Survey of Professional Forecasters both appear to miss significant information used by price-setters, so that forecast pooling with actual values improves the statistical fit to inflation.     

Monetary and fiscal policy under deep habits

Allowing habits to be formed at the level of individual goods – deep habits - can radically alter the fiscal policy transmission mechanism as the counter-cyclicality of mark-ups this implies can result in government spending crowding-in rather than crowding-out private consumption in the short run. We explore the robustness of this mechanism to the existence of price discrimination in the supply of goods to the public and private sectors. We then describe optimal monetary and fiscal policy in our New Keynesian economy subject to the additional externality of deep habits and explore the ability of simple policy rules to mimic fully optimal policy. We find that the presence of deep habits at empirically estimated levels can imply large externalities that significantly affect the conduct of monetary and tax policy. However, despite the rise in government spending multipliers implied by deep habits, government spending is barely used as a stabilisation tool under the optimal policy.     

PRICE-LEVEL TARGETING AND STABILISATION POLICY: A SURVEY

Abstract.  This paper surveys recent articles on the costs and benefits of price-level targeting, focusing its use as a tool for stabilisation policy. It discusses how price-level targeting can affect the short-run trade-off between output and inflation variability by influencing inflation expectations. It reviews how assigning an explicit price-level target to a central bank that is unable to commit to its future policies can improve economic performance. It surveys other potential benefits and costs. Among the costs, it underlines the importance of perfectly rational expectations for the optimality of price-level targeting, and an exacerbation of the time inconsistency problem.     

Do global output gaps help forecast domestic inflation? Evidence from Phillips curves for Poland

This study confronts domestic and global views on inflation through the use of the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve (HNKPC) models estimated for headline and core inflation in Poland. We analyse the roles of the global vs. domestic output gaps in affecting price changes. We ensure that our conclusions are robust by taking into consideration various proxies for inflation expectations, imported inflation, the domestic output gap and the global output gap.Our results suggest that the global demand conditions are statistically insignificant in the majority of the estimated global versions of HNKPC, independently of the measure of them that is considered. In terms of empirical fit, and especially of the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy, the specifications of the Phillips curve with the domestic and global output gaps among the explanatory variables are not superior to traditional Phillips curves. Interestingly, the relative importance of the global output gap is much smaller in models that are estimated in terms of core inflation, excluding foodstuffs and energy, than in CPI inflation models. This suggests that global demand conditions affect the inflation in Poland indirectly, mainly through the prices of food and energy raw materials.The main conclusion from our study is that external factors that are already considered in the traditional hybrid versions of the new Keynesian Phillips curve are sufficient to account for global influences on prices in the domestic economy. The concept of the global output gap improves neither the explanatory nor the predictive power of HNKPC models.     

Monetary policy and learning from the central bank's forecast

We examine the expectational stability (E-stability) of rational expectations equilibrium (REE) in a standard New Keynesian model in which private agents refer to the central bank's forecast in the process of adaptive learning. To satisfy the E-stability condition in this environment, the central bank must respond more strongly to the expected inflation rate than the extent to which the Taylor principle suggests. However, the central bank's strong reaction to the expected inflation rate raises the possibility of indeterminacy of the REE. In considering these problems, a robust policy requires responding to the current inflation rate to a certain degree.