The impact of sustainable energy production on land use in Britain through to 2050

Historically, land use in Britain has been shaped by the environment's capacity to provide energy as well as food, water and shelter. Over the next decades, energy will again become a major driver in land cover change as we seek to capture the necessary energy to replace fossil fuels, reduce environmental damage and substitute for insecure supplies. Britain was one of the first places to exploit fossil fuels extensively, initially coal, and it has the potential to generate considerable amounts of renewable energy from tides, waves, the wind, biomass and sunlight. The UK Government's policy is to develop a suite of technologies that will provide a resilient supply without compromising its economy or its international commitments to environmental protection.This paper examines the three major terrestrial options for renewable energy and assesses each by successively filtering them for feasibility, achievability and practicality incorporating existing developments, designation and public opinion. Technology and opinion are dynamic, so the outputs need to be viewed as indicative of alternative scenarios rather than as fixed forecasts. Implications for changes in the energy supply infrastructure needed to match the new supply chains are highlighted.The demand for energy depends on the demographic profile (population size, age distribution, lifestyle and expectations) and on economic activity. Here total demand is predicted using the UK Energy Research Centre's Energy 2050 model, which uses linear programming to balance economics and environmental capacity by major demand sectors in five-year time steps. The core model often generates challenging results.     

中国生猪饲养业比较优势分析

生猪饲养业在中国畜牧业中占有重要的地位,对世界猪肉市场也有重要影响。本文利用国内资源成本模型对中国生猪养殖业的比较优势进行了实证研究,对农户散养、专业户饲养和国营集体大规模化饲养3种方式下生猪的比较优势的差异进行对比。研究从生猪饲养效率角度出发,对农户散养、专业户饲养和国营集体大规模化饲养的比较优势水平的差异进行了分析。     

The Collusion-deterring Effect of Pre-attributed Supplies and the Hog Auction in Quebec

The hog/pork industry in Quebec has been going through major institutional changes since 1989, the year an electronic auction was put in place to market all of the hogs in the province. Because the auction's ability to generate high prices did not meet the expectations of hog producers, the pure auction system was replaced by a hybrid one in 1994. In this system, most of the hog supply was pre-attributed to processors at a negotiated price based on the US. price while the remainder of the provincial supply of hogs was sold through the auction. In this paper, we investigate how a seemingly inefficient marketing mechanism like pre-attributions can increase the efficiency of a usually efficient mechanism like an auction. We present theoretical arguments regarding the sustainability of collusion under the pure auction and hybrid systems in addition to analyzing auction prices with modern time series tools.     

Efficiency estimation in a profit maximising model using flexible production function

This paper uses a flexible (translog) production function to estimate efficiency of 227 farms from West Bengal, India. We consider estimation of technical and allocative inefficiencies using a profit maximising framework which accommodates both endogenous and exogenous inputs. The maximum likelihood method of estimation developed in this paper is based on the production function and the first-order conditions of profit maximisation. Farm-specific technical and allocative inefficiencies are also estimated. Empirical results show that the mean level of technical efficiency is 75.46% while the best farm is 85.87% efficient (technically). So far as allocative efficiency is concerned the majority of the farms are found to be under-users of the endogenous inputs, viz., fertiliser, manure, human and bullock labour.     

The use of rented farmland in an area of intensive agricultural production in Norway

The amount of rented farmland in Norway has increased steadily since the 1950s. Concerns have been raised questioning whether farmland is treated less well by tenants compared to landowners. This study aims to investigate how farmers perceive their treatment of rented farmland, which factors impact their decision-making related to this and if farmers are concerned about farmland elements that are less important for productivity but mainly of interest for cultural heritage or environmental management reasons. Semi-structured interviews with a group of randomly selected farmers were carried out in an area dominated by intensive agriculture. Independent of, for example, amount of rented land or duration of the rental agreement, all farmers agreed that rented land was treated well. A strong competition for farmland in combination with farmers being dependent on renting land was the most important reason. Results from this study may be transferrable to other farming areas, at least where competition for farmland is comparable. We do suggest, however, that any further research on treatment of rented farmland in Norway should take a regional approach, since national statistics may cover significant regional differences.     

Risk Preferences of Dairy and Hog Producer in Quebec

The objective of this study is to investigate the nature of risk preferences of Quebec dairy and hog producers. The direct elicitation of utility method is employed to determine producers'degree of risk aversion. The Delphi process is used to obtain more refined and realistic responses. The results reveal that the risk preferences of the randomly selected Quebec farmers are highly diverse. The percentage of risk-taking farmers ranges from 8% to 23% depending upon the level of investment and the nature of the enterprise. On average, the majority of farmers in both groups are found to be risk averse. Based on the differences between the means as well as distributions, although not significant in all cases, hog producers are found to be consistently more risk averse than dairy producers. Moreover, the gap between the two groups widens as the level of investment increases. The implications of this result are that the stability of farm income due to supply management in dairy sector may facilitate investments of a given risk (for example, adoption of a new technology) more so than it would in the hog sector.     

Regional Impacts of a U.S. Hog Slaughter Plant Closing: The Thorn Apple Valley Case

As the 1998 U.S. hog market collapse unfolded, Thorn Apple Valley ceased hog slaughter operations at its Detroit, Michigan plant. We examine the impacts on Michigan live hog prices relative to Eastern Corn Belt hog prices. Results indicate that Michigan producers' relative price advantage diminished after the closure as procurement competition changed. As the impacts of the 1998 hog market collapse were absorbed, Michigan producers' relative price advantage became consistently negative. Examination of Michigan's market hog production distribution indicates postclosure shifts away from production in areas geographically near to Thorn Apple Valley and growth in counties geographically closer to alternative packers.     

Pricing Relationships in Interdependent North American Hog Markets: The Impact of the Countervailing Duty

Canada has historically exported large numbers of swine and volumes of fresh and frozen pork products to the U.S. with minimal trade barriers. However, a substantial increase in imports of Canadian swine in 1983 and 1984 caused concern among U.S. producers, and their lobbying efforts culminated in the imposition of a countervailing duty in April 1985. The objectives of this research are twofold: ? to determine if Canadian swine imports into U.S. markets over the 1982 to 1985 period had a significant effect on U.S. prices, and ? to assess the impact of the countervailing duty on pricing efficiency in the Canadian slaughter hog markets. Several empirical methods have previously been used to analyze pricing relationships in agricultural markets: structural econometric models, univariate time-series models and multivariate time-series models. The vector autoregression (VAR) technique, representing a recent development in multivariate modeling, was chosen here to analyze the study hypotheses. VAR models have received considerable attention for their ability to evaluate the dynamic interrelationships among several time series in one system. The VAR analysis shows that Canadian swine imports into U.S. markets did not have a significant effect on U.S. prices. The results also indicate that pricing efficiency in the Canadian markets declined following enforcement of the countervailing duty. The research findings highlight the interdependence of the two countries and the need for ongoing bilateral and multilateral trade negotiations between them and third-party trading partners. Le Canada exporte depuis longtemps aux États-Unis de grandes quantités de pores sur pied et de produits frais et congelés du porc et les obstacles à ce commerce ont toujours été assez limités. Toutefois, la forte croissance des importations de pore canadien, en 1983 et 1984, a soulevé des inquiétudes parmi les producteurs américains, et les pressions exercées par ces derniers ont abouti, en avril 1985, à ?imposition ?un droit compensatoire. La présente recherche avait un double objectif: 1) déterminer si les importations de porc canadien sur les marchés américains de 1982 à 1985 ont eu un effet sensible sur les prix pratiqués aux États-Unis; 2) évaluer ?incidence du droit compensatoire sur ?efficacité de ?établissement des prix dans le secteur canadien de la production porcine. Plusieurs méthodes empiriques ont déjà été utilisées pour analyser les facteurs intervenant dans la détermination des prix dans les marchés agricoles: modèles économériques structuraux, séries chronologiques univariées et séries chronologiques multivariées. La technique ?autorégression vectorielle (VAR), une méthode de modélisation multivariée récemment mise au point, nous a servi à ?analyse de nos hypothèses de travail. Les modèles VAR ont soulevé énormément ?intérêt à cause de leur aptitude à évaluer les rapports dynamiques qui existent entre plusieurs séries chronologiques dans un système donné. ?analyse VAR a démontré que les importations de pore canadien sur les marchés américains n'ont pas influé de façon significative sur les prix pratiqués aux États-Unis. Nos résultats montrent également que ?eficacité de ?établisement des prix dans les marchés canadiens a diminué par suite de la mise en vigueur du droit compensatoire. Finalement, nos résultats mettent clairement en lumière ?interdépendance du Canada et des État-Unis et la nécessité de poursuivre les négotiations bilatérales et multilatérales entre ces deux pays et leurs partenaires commerciaux.     

山东省渔业生产函数的协整分析

本文根据C-D生产函数和协整理论方法,对1971～2006年山东省渔业经济增长的产出与三种投人要素进行了协整分析,模拟估计了山东省渔业C-D生产函数模型,并建立误差修正模型,将短期波动和长期均衡结合在一个模型中,体现出了长期均衡对短期波动"负反馈"的调整机制,并分析了资本、技术、劳动对渔业产出的贡献,综合反映了山东省渔业生产特征,对于发展山东渔业经济、促进渔业经济增长具有现实指导意义.     

Crop Selection and Implications for Profits and Wind Erosion in a Semi-Arid Environment

A daily crop growth simulation model was applied to four dryland cropping systems to estimate the profit distributions for each of four price series under stochastic weather conditions on the Southern High Plains of Texas. Stochastic dominance with respect to a function was utilized to rank each crop rotation for different risk-averse intervals. Solutions from the model indicate that long-term average annual soil loss due to wind erosion was a function of the producer's risk aversion, price expectation, and discount rate which affect the optimal crop rotation selection.     

Estimating Investment Rigidity within a Threshold Regression Framework: The Case of U.S. Hog Production Sector

This article addresses the issues of investment/disinvestment asymmetry and a possible existence of a sluggish regime in the demand for a quasi-fixed input in the U.S. hog production sector. Adopting a new threshold estimation procedure, quarterly data from 1970 through 2002 are used to estimate a regime-dependent investment demand equation for a quasi-fixed input, taking sows as a proxy. The results support the existence of three regimes over alternative specifications precluding the sluggish regime, confirming the existence of asset fixity in hog production. The results also highlight the importance of accounting for investment rigidity when estimating hog supply and variable input demands.     

The Farm Credit System as a Government-Sponsored Enterprise

This article examines the impact of government-sponsored enterprise status for the Farm Credit System on allocative efficiency in agricultural credit markets. The Farm Credit System was established originally to overcome market failures in these markets and to provide long-term funding at rates lower than private credit sources. Using a supply and demand model and an options model, the impact of subsidized interest rates is discussed. My results show that the default risk premium in interest rates is transferred from agricultural borrowers to taxpayers. There is evidence of deadweight losses and market distortions due to government-sponsored enterprise status for the Farm Credit System.     

鲤科鱼类池塘养殖技术效率的研究

本文应用随机边界产量函数对我国鲤科鱼类池塘养殖的技术效率进行了分析。通过对全国7个省283个渔场的鲤科鱼类池塘养殖生产情况的分析，表明我国鲤科鱼类池塘养殖总体技术效率水平较高，平均技术效率水平达到70．8％。本文还对影响技术效率的主要因子进行了分析，并就如何进一步提高我国水产养殖生产的技术效率进行了探讨。     

Cost of Meeting Manure Nutrient Application Standards in Hog Production: The Roles of EQIP and Fertilizer Offsets

The Environmental Protection Agency requires concentrated animal feeding operations to develop and implement a comprehensive nutrient management plan. Changes in manure management to meet nutrient application standards will increase production costs. Some of these costs can be offset by savings from replacing commercial fertilizer with manure nutrients, and through financial assistance programs such as the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP). A manure application cost model was used to examine the costs to confined hog farms of meeting nutrient application standards, and the ability of fertilizer offsets and EQIP to reduce these costs.