关于东亚区域货币合作问题的探讨

东亚区域经济体货币合作的推进形式是一个典型的循序渐进、多轨并进和形式多样化的过程。本文主要探讨东亚区域货币合作问题过程中的有效的区域货币金融合作机制。     

区域货币合作模式及东亚的选择

经济全球化和区域经济一体化的世界经济趋势对东亚货币合作提出了迫切要求,东亚国家在金融领域暴露出的金融体系脆弱性也要求加强东亚货币合作。在当今世界上三个最重要的区域经济集团中的两个已经形成了自己的区域货币体系的情况下,建立东亚货币区应该成为东亚货币体系改革的长远目标。本文首先介绍了最优货币区理论及其最新发展,进而指出目前世界上存在的三种区域货币合作模式,最后着重阐述东亚货币合作的模式及路径选择。     

国际货币金融合作机制对东亚的启示

东亚货币金融合作在东亚外汇储备库建立以后进入了一十新的发展阶段也将面临新的挑战,以后的发展依然任重道远.本文试图通过考察世界上其他几个主要的区域货币金融合作机制,并与东亚的区域合作进行比较,为我们认识和完善东亚货币金融合作机制提供一定的借鉴.     

国际货币金融合作机制对东亚的启示

东亚货币金融合作在东亚外汇储备库建立以后进入了一个新的发展阶段也将面临新的挑战,以后的发展依然任重道远。本文试图通过考察世界上其他几个主要的区域货币金融合作机制,并与东亚的区域合作进行比较,为我们认识和完善东亚货币金融合作机制提供一定的借鉴。     

东亚货币联盟创建的模式与路径分析

东亚国家经济基础差、抗风险能力弱,特别是经历了两次金融危机以后,这些国家深刻认识到唯有联合起来并最终实现统一市场、统一货币,才是唯一的路径。虽然目前东亚各国距离建立统一的货币联盟还相距甚远,但巨大利益深深的吸引着这些国家为了这一目标而努力。区域货币合作有三种模式,分别是主导货币区域化、单一货币联盟、多重货币联盟。东亚货币联盟的建立路径从时间上可分三步走,近期应建立危机援助机制;中期应建立起东亚区域汇率稳定机制;从长期来看则是建立东亚单一货币区,发行单一货币＂亚元＂。     

论东亚区域经济一体化进程的障碍与对策

东亚区域经济一体化存在经济和政治上的必要性。东亚区域经济合作具备一定的现实条件,但一些政治因素、经济因素及文化差异因素等制约了东亚区域经济合作的进程。为了推进东亚区域经济一体化,必须遵循五大原则,建立互信机制,推进东亚货币合作,推进区域内的次区域经济合作,打造“双引擎”的核心力量,开展专业化分工与重组。     

东亚货币合作及中国的战略安排

一、东亚货币合作的现状 东亚金融危机前，东亚地区的贸易和投资合作取得了相当大的进展，但在货币和货币金融合作方面却是一片空白。随着区域内经济相互依赖性的不断加强，为克服由货币和金融危机产生的困难，在一些区域经济体内部形成了一些共识，即实现持续的经济增长所需要的经济和金融系统的稳定发展离不开区域的协调。可以预期，东亚各国将会不断地巩固已经取得的合作成果，建立彼此之间的信任和协作关系，并推动东亚货币合作走向新阶段。     

东亚区域货币联盟实践、前景与对策

东亚区域货币联盟得到大多数理论研究的支持,各国政府也表现出较大的兴趣,东盟10+3货币互换安排和亚洲债券基金是东亚货币金融合作的两个标志性事件。在可预见的将来,东亚有可能出现某种松散的货币联盟,以流动性提供机制为核心、建立相对灵活的汇率稳定机制、以其他经济领域一体化为基础、保持“亚洲传统”的特色,是东亚货币联盟的四大特点。中国应该采取积极、灵活的政策,在全面经济金融合作的基础上支持区域货币联盟,并在其中发挥应有的作用。     

东亚区域一体化下的货币合作:模式分析与路径选择

1997年爆发的亚洲金融危使东亚认识到货币合作对保持稳定和繁荣的重要性。本文论述了东亚区域一体化与货币合作的关系,分析了东亚货币合作的现实动因、面临的困难,探讨了东亚货币合作的模式与路径。     

人民币货币价值的稳定性分析——人民币成为区域主导货币的基础

随着我国经济实力的不断增强,我国和人民币在东亚区域货币合作进程中的地位和作用日益显现。人民币能否在东亚货币竞争中找到合理的地位,进而成为区域主导货币,其稳定的货币价值是最基本的要求和基础。本文将分别通过分析人民币对内价值、对外价值的稳定性及其稳定的政治基础,进而指出人民币已初步具备成为东亚区域主导货币的条件。     

Which foreign states support the global use of the Chinese renminbi? The international political economy of currency internationalisation

The internationalisation of the Chinese renminbi has taken a path distinct from most cases involving previous international currencies, in that policy measures adopted by governments have played crucial roles in it. This paper conducts a cross‐country analysis of the factors that have led foreign governments to introduce three primary policy infrastructures to support renminbi use—renminbi swap lines, Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor quotas and renminbi clearing banks. Our analysis shows that a state holding renminbi assets among its reserves or having more developed financial markets is likely to establish a higher level of policy infrastructure supporting renminbi use. We also find that a country's economic and political relations with China may have meaningful impacts on the level of its establishment of those renminbi‐related policy infrastructures. These findings significantly expand our understanding of renminbi internationalisation, by identifying which non‐Chinese factors have affected its progress to date. They also contribute meaningfully to the literature on currency internationalisation and international currencies in general, by calling attention to the roles of foreign states in the process of a currency's internationalisation.     

东亚区域货币合作与人民币的核心竞争力分析

随着《清迈协议》的签订,东亚货币一体化正式进入区域货币合作阶段。根据“最适度货币区”理论,在区域货币合作中,需要有一种占主导地位的货币,在货币合作中起支撑作用。东亚各国(地区)货币中,日元由于种种原因,难成区域性主导货币(核心货币)。由于人民币近年来的不俗表现,其竞争力不断增强,将最有条件成为区域货币中的中坚力量。     

Determinants shaping the international currency system: Where do currencies stand relative to their equilibria?

Using a sample of 27 currencies, we empirically test the role of a large set of determinants potentially underlying currencies' share in the international currency system, providing, to the best of our knowledge, the most comprehensive study of this kind so far. We propose a new global indicator that quantifies the international use of currencies on the basis of three dimensions—medium of exchange, unit of account and store of value. From a range of indicators including openness, financial development and institutional development indicators, we uncover several variables that are significant in explaining the international status of currencies, hence contributing to understanding the role of the determinants shaping the international currency system. We also investigate the long-run equilibrium values for currency shares, allowing us to score currencies on the basis of the potential stemming from the determinants. We contribute to the debate on international currencies' prospects, not only by looking at much discussed currencies such as the US dollar, the euro and the Chinese renminbi, but also by uncovering potential of emerging currencies. This knowledge is of the utmost importance for the debate on the reform of the international monetary system—from the point of view of academics, policymakers and market practitioners.     

Optimum choice of invoice currency with correlated exchange rates†

In this paper, we revisit optimal choice of invoice currency for an exporting firm in the face of exchange rate uncertainty. We demonstrate that when a vehicle currency is available, the optimum choice depends not only on the volatility of the exchange rates but the covariance between them as well. In particular, we show that when the exchange rates between the exporter and importer currencies on the one hand, and the exporter and the vehicle currency on the other, are positively correlated, vehicle currency becomes an attractive choice. The intuition underlying this novel outcome is that this regime dampens profit variability for the exporter.     

From carry trades to curvy trades

Traditional carry trade strategies are based on differences in short-term interest rates, neglecting any other information embedded in yield curves. We derive return distributions of currency portfolios, where the signals to buy and sell currencies are based on summary measures of the yield curve. We find that a strategy based on the relative curvature factor, the curvy trade, yields higher Sharpe ratios and a smaller return skewness than traditional carry strategies. Curvy trades build less upon the typical carry currencies and are hence less susceptible to crash risk. In line with that, standard pricing factors of traditional carry returns fail to explain curvy trade returns.     

A dynamic monetary model with costly foreign currency

I present a dynamic general equilibrium monetary model with domestic and foreign currencies and a traded bond where there is an adjustment cost to switch into foreign currency. The focus is on the short versus long run trade-offs and transitional dynamics of domestic and foreign monetary disturbances as a function of attributes of currencies in utility. The main finding is that short and long run trade-offs and transitional dynamics together with the implied hysteresis property of the equilibrium are critical determinants of the qualitative results of domestic and foreign monetary disturbances in this class of model.     

基于Q币的网络虚拟币属性与影响分析

Q币目前并不是货币,但具有一定的货币属性与功能,如有限度的流通性,相对的价值尺度职能,一定程度的支付手段等。就Q币的特征而言,Q币与法定货币之间存在着很大的差异,Q币不能代替人民币的作用。但虚拟币的无限创造能力成为潜在的不稳定因素,中央银行难以有效控制货币供给,可能危及我国的金融安全。我国应严厉打击倒卖Q币的行为,加强对Q币等网络虚拟币的金融监管,建立更安全便捷的支付渠道。     

The currency denomination of exports — A questionnaire study

We report survey results on the currency choice of a random sample of Swedish exporters. We find that for an overwhelming share of exports, the price, invoice and settlement currency is the same. The currency of the customer is the most used, with Swedish kronor and vehicle currencies accounting for approximately equal shares. Currency choice is similar for intra-firm and between-firm trade. We also find that negotiations are important for both the price and for the currency choice. A minority of firms use posted prices for their main exports — the median price adjustment for those firms is once per year.     

浅析货币资金的审计途径

货币资金是企业资产的重要组成部分,是企业资产中流动性最强的一种资产,所以企业必须加强货币资金的管理．同时对货币资金的审计也提出了新的要求。结合审计工作的实践,从现金的盘查、银行账户核查、其他货币资金审计、固定资产的审查、举报线索等方面,分析了资金安全性的审计途径。