Intertemporal current account balance and the East Asian currency crises

Under the assumption that the balance of the current account must satisfy the expected intertemporal balance, this paper seeks to establish a precondition for the recent currency crises in East Asian countries. Whenever current policy violates the expected intertemporal balance, it is argued that future policy changes (possibly including the exchange rate regime) are anticipated. Using Trehan and Walsh's [1991] result that nonstationarity of the change of assets is evidence of a violation of the expected intertemporal balance, this paper calculates the augmented Dickey-Fuller statistics of the current account prior to the East Asian currency crises. In each of these crises, there is evidence of a persistent violation of intertemporal balance prior to the crisis. There is also evidence of countries being affected by the plight of their neighbors. Their currencies depreciated even though it was not necessary. This is a revised version of a paper presented at the Forty-Fifth International Atlantic Economic Conference, Rome, Italy, March 14–21, 1998. The author would like to thank the participants of the conference for their comments. Suggestions from Tsangyao Chang, Wen-Shwo Fang, and Richard Lu at the Feng-Chia University seminar are appreciated. Financial support from the National Science Fund of Taiwan, Republic of China, NSC 88-2415-H-035-010, is greatly appreciated.     

最优货币区:对东亚国家的经验研究

This paper empirically examines the potential for forming an Optimal Currency Area (OCA) in selected Asian economies, including ASEAN countries, China, Japan and Korea, by testing Generalized Purchasing Power Parity (G-PPP) using Johansen’s cointegration approach. We investigate the long-term real exchange rate of six sub-groups of countries in order to find whether they share the common stochastic trend, as in an OCA, predicted by the G-PPP theory. The date set is monthly based between 1994 and 2003. We find that five sub-groups out of the six in total appear to have significant evidence of the existence of OCAs. This finding reflects the fact that those economies are actually highly integrated and interrelated to each other, and the current regional monetary arrangement (such as, the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI)) is far lagging behind the real economic link in East Asia.     

An analysis of East Asian currency area: Bayesian dynamic factor model approach

There has recently been an increasing interest in the establishment of a common currency area in East Asia in the aftermath of the East Asian financial crisis. In this article I examine the desirability and feasibility of forming a currency area in the region by checking the symmetry of shocks as an important criterion of the theory of Optimum Currency Area. I employ a dynamic factor model to decompose aggregate output into world, regional and country‐specific components and estimate the model using a Gibbs sampling simulation. Persistent properties of those components are examined and variance decomposition analysis is performed to investigate the role of each component in output variance. The European Monetary Union, with the successful launch of the euro, is the natural benchmark for comparison. Based on variance analysis, it is found that East Asian countries, on average, are less plausible candidates for a currency area than European counterparts. However, a subgroup of countries in East Asia is as qualified as those in Europe. Given the ongoing integration in East Asia, it is not premature to prepare for such a currency area in this region.     

Extended generalized purchasing power parity and optimum currency area in East Asian countries

We build a model in which corporate governance allows for the adoption of an institution acting as a mechanism to control agency problems. Our model predicts that the incentive to adopt such an institution is decreasing in ownership concentration and increasing in free cash flow. Testing our theoretical model by means of a sample of 157 Italian listed companies over the period 2004–2007, we find that board composition favours independent members in firms with a large free cash flow, and executive members in firms with high ownership concentration, supporting the view of governance as a way to limit agency costs.     

东亚经济增长模式相关争论的再探讨

由克鲁格曼挑起的东亚经济增长模式的争论,也引起了国内经济学界对我国经济增长模式的热烈讨论。国内许多研究试图沿用克鲁格曼的立论所依据的全要素生产率(TFP)的方法分析我国经济增长的来源,以此判断我国现有经济增长模式的可持续性。对关于东亚经济增长模式的争论进行深入考察有助于对中国有关问题的研究和理解。本文力求通过对有关国内外文献的综述,对全要素生产率方法发展和理论基础的深入分析,以及对一些国家经济增长经验的回顾,来论证克鲁格曼当年挑起这场争论的出发点是站不住脚的,他的文章对全要素生产率的意义存在误解,在经济学理论方法方面也存在一些缺陷。因此,我们不应该以克鲁格曼的方法和立论为依据,继续宣传与此有关的一些似是而非的说法。本文在对克鲁格曼挑起的这场争论的回顾中,总结了几点对中国未来发展有意义的结论。     

Labor Mobility and East Asian Integration

East Asian economic integration is commonly analyzed in the context of trade in goods and services and capital flows, while labor flows have been very much neglected. Yet labor flows in the region are rapidly growing, given the diversity in levels of economic development, employment opportunities and wage levels, and the existence of labor surplus and deficit countries. Labor migration poses more benefits than costs for both sending and receiving countries, but there are more sensitivities toward labor flows than trade and capital flows. The characteristics and government policies are different for the unskilled and semiskilled foreign workers and for the professionals and highly skilled. Regional cooperation among countries is needed to manage the flows, reduce the incidence of illegal and undocumented workers, reduce the transaction costs of migration, and protect the rights of these workers.     

东亚经济的调整与合作

本文描述了东亚经济及其模式的一般特点，重点阐述了其显露和隐含的问题。文章指出：在经济全球化发展的时代，东亚国家必须突破日本一雁领头的“雁形结构”，尽快形成由日本和中国领先的“双头鹰结构”，或由日本、中国和韩国三足鼎立的“鼎形结构”，提高产业调整速度，共同实现向资本和技术密集型产业的升级；要在和平条件下提高区域合作紧密化程度，其中，“东盟 中国 日本 韩国”的区域经济合作机制和组织的不断完善，平等互利基础上的亚洲货币基金组织的建立，将为东亚和整个亚洲经济的高效合作提供良好的平台。     

Deviations and mean reversion to purchasing power parity in the Asian currency crisis of 1997

This study analyses the process of mean reversion towards purchasing power parity (PPP) for a sample of Asian countries around the 1997 crisis. It is found that appreciation relative to PPP is evident prior to the 1997 crash period. Correction occurs from 1997 onwards, a period marked by extreme movements in exchange rates with both appreciation and depreciation relative to the PPP rate over relatively short periods. The key result of this paper is that although reversion towards PPP is apparent for mean, though not statistically significant, it is clear that there is a substantial, statistically significant change in variance from 1997 onwards. This result has implications both for economic modelling of crash periods and for appropriate choice of statistical tests.     

东亚经济合作中的中国国际形象

树立良好的中国国际形象有助于发展与东亚各国的睦邻友好合作关系,有利于东亚区域合作的顺利进行.东亚各国对中国国际形象的认可和接受程度成上升态势.但在出口和吸引国际投资、区域合作制度创新以及非经济因素等方面,中国国际形象仍然面临挑战.中国应从完善地区间产业分工、加快自由贸易区建设、推动东亚区域合作机制和强化地区安全合作几方面入手,努力提升自身国际形象.     

The financial cycles in four East Asian economies

This paper characterizes proxy measures of financial cycles using available data on four East Asian economies, viz., Hong Kong, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. Spectral analysis is adopted to characterize the financial cycles and these cycles are compared with the business cycles of the four East Asian economies. The empirical findings indicated that with the exception of the equity price growth in Hong Kong, the period of the proxy measures for financial cycles is slightly longer than the period of the business cycle. More to the point, there is no evidence to show that the period of the proxy measures for financial cycles in these economies are operating at low frequencies similar to the period of the cycles of between 8 to 32 years observed for advanced economies such as the US, UK and Germany. Taking one step further, the paper finds that the financial cycles of these four economies are better captured by a band-pass filter estimated using the periods obtained in the paper as opposed to using long period cycles of between 8 to 32 years. These findings imply that one needs to be careful in making an a priori assumption on the frequency range the financial cycle is believed to operate.     

全球金融危机及其对东亚经济的影响

本文分析了美国金融危机对东亚经济体产生的传染效应.文章认为,这次美国金融危机的真正原因在于其金融部门的结构性问题,它会影响到东亚大多数经济体的经济增长与金融部门的发展.当然,其影响程度取决于这些经济体的经济和金融基础,中国也不例外.     

东亚货币一体化博弈分析

东亚发展中国家与地区如何选择汇率制度一直是个颇有争议的话题。在“欧元”单一货币区成功实施的背景下,寻求货币一体化便成为东亚各国与地区关注的焦点。实际上,东亚货币一体化就是各参与方根据其参与的成本和收益,权衡利弊得失的决策博弈过程,该过程具有两阶段博弈的特征。     

Relation-based versus Rule-based Governance: an Explanation of the East Asian Miracle and Asian Crisis

The paper aims to establish a theory of relation‐based governance to explain both the “East Asian miracle” and the Asian crisis. The author first defines “relation” and “relation‐based governance” in terms of information and enforcement, and then analyzes the nature and dynamics of relation‐based governance, comparing its benefits and costs with that of “rule‐based governance” in terms of observability/verifiability, commitment, and transaction costs. The theory is applied to examine a particular relation‐based governance system—the Japanese model—to explain both the East Asian miracle and the Asian crisis. The framework provides foundations for studies of East Asian catching‐up and economic development in general.     

中国各区域对外贸易的决定因素分析--中国八大区域与东亚三经济体间的贸易

本文将中国划分为8大区域,通过分析这8大区域与韩国、台湾地区、日本之间的贸易趋势,寻找影响中国各区域国际贸易的主要因素。韩国、台湾地区、日本这三个东亚经济体作为中国的主要贸易伙伴,在中国的市场占有率达到40%,在同中国的贸易中存在着区域和商品种类上的差别。即韩国在东北地区、台湾在南部沿海地区、日本则在中国大部分地区显示出较高的市场占有率,并且它们在中国各沿海地区的产品出口种类趋于相同,说明东亚三个经济体在中国各地区的竞争越来越激烈。通过对东亚三个经济体同中国各区域产业内贸易趋势的分析,发现,收入水平高、产业结构相对高级的东部沿海区域表现出相互独立的贸易结构。这种现象可以进一步解释为各区域之间还存在着较独立的产业结构。产业内贸易大部分由垂直产业内贸易构成,即同东亚三个经济体形成了商品质量和价格差别的同一品种之间的贸易。最后,通过对产业内贸易决定因素的计量分析,可以看出中国各区域的人均收入水平、外国直接投资额、工业产品出口比重等是决定垂直产业内贸易的主要因素。     

后冷战时期“东亚”论述的视域——走向开放性区域主义的几个尝试

东亚固有的历史性乃来源于三重霸权结构,即前近代以中华帝国为中心而包含其周边地区的华夷秩序,近代由殖民帝国日本发动的殖民主义,以及二战后在美国霸权下的冷战格局.这些因素相互缠绕遗留了包括强弱、优劣、大小、主从等关系在内的位阶结构.如何从那里摆脱出来的问题构成后冷战时期现代亚洲的动力.     

Competition and risk in South East Asian commercial banking

This article investigates the effects of competition on bank risk taking behaviour in four South East Asian countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam). Our main finding is that competition does not increase bank risk-taking behaviour and the results appear robust to different model specifications, estimation approaches and variable construction. We also find that concentration is inversely related to bank risk whereas regulatory restrictions positively influence bank risk-taking.     

东亚经济赶超过程中金融体系转型的理论阐释

本文以韩国为例,分析东亚经济赶超过程中金融体系的转型.文中运用一个经济模型解释经济赶超过程中韩国集中化银行体系的软预算约束与经济快速增长这一看起来似乎相互矛盾的情况,认为在信息技术革命迅速发展和外部经济环境深刻变化的条件下,集中化的金融体系已不再适应经济的发展,迫切需要向分散化的市场方向转变.