THE GRAPE PHYLLOXERA PLAGUE AS A NATURAL EXPERIMENT: THE UPKEEP OF VINEYARDS IN CATALONIA (SPAIN), 1858–1935

This paper analyses the impact in Catalonia of the grape Phylloxera plague in Europe (1865–90). A statistical model is used to analyse the economic resilience of 35 districts in Catalonia to this external ecological and economic shock, and to explain why districts in the provinces of Barcelona and Tarragona resumed growing wine grapes after the plague, in contrast to districts in Girona and Lleida provinces. The opportunity cost of labour, the demand pull of Barcelona's commercial growth, and the agro-climatic suitability of land for growing grapes are used to explain the differing capacities of districts to endure the Phylloxera plague in Catalonia.     

African agricultural productivity and the transatlantic slave trade: evidence from Senegambia in the nineteenth century

Agriculture has played a central role in Africa's long‐term economic development. Previous research has argued that the low productivity of African economies has posed significant challenges to African efforts to produce an agricultural surplus or to develop commercial agriculture. Low agricultural productivity has also served as a key explanation for the transatlantic slave trade, on the basis that it was more profitable to export humans overseas than to grow and export produce. However, the field has suffered from a lack of comparable empirical evidence. This article contributes to this field by presenting quantitative data on historical land and labour productivity in Africa, from a case study of the agricultural productivity of Senegambia in the early nineteenth century. Focusing on five key crops, our results suggest that both land and labour productivity was lower in Senegambia than it was in all other parts of the world for which we have found comparable data. This article thus lends support to claims that stress ecological factors as one of the main determinants of Africa's historical development.     

Agricultural development in industrialising Japan, 1880–1940

This study reviews research examining agricultural development in industrialising Japan. We focus on the (dys)functioning of markets for land, finance, labour and agricultural commodities. We cover topics including land (mis)allocation, size-productivity relationships, tenancy contract choice and Marshallian inefficiency, property rights, microfinance, shock-coping strategies, rural–urban migration and agricultural market integration. The literature reveals that market failures often observed in developing economies were not prominent, except for possibly labour markets. The literature also highlights the roles and administrative capacities of central and local governments. Tight local communities served to reduce transaction costs.     

MEASURING INEQUALITY TRENDS IN COLONIAL AUSTRALIA USING FACTOR–PRICE RATIOS: THE IMPORTANCE OF BOUNDARIES

Previous research on nineteenth century globalisation argues that during the second half of that century wage–rental ratios in labour scarce, land-abundant new world economies decreased. This suggests inequality rose in the new world. Australia has been cited as a conspicuous example of this trend. The paper re-examines this argument using disaggregated land and wage data for four Australian colonies. We reveal large regional differences in both factor–price levels and trends – something that has been overlooked when discussing Australian colonial inequality and we suggest that regional disparities in other nineteenth century economies are also likely to be important.     

Farm households' participation in rural non-farm employment in post-war Rwanda: Drivers and policy implications

Despite the post-war government's unprecedented efforts to stimulate growth of the rural non-farm (RNF) sector in Rwanda, evidence suggests that participation in this sector remains low compared with other developing and transition economies. This study investigates the micro and meso-level factors defining farm household's capacity and incentives to participate in RNF employment in the post-war Rwanda. Based on the household's time allocation theory, this study employs household survey data collected in Gisagara District in a double-hurdle regression. The results reveal that female-headedness, labour availability, education, social networks, access to finance and rural towns increase the probability of participating in RNF activities, whereas for participating households, the time allocated to RNF activities tends to decrease with age, land productivity, distance to market and dispersed settlements. The article concludes with key implications for rural development policies such as basic education and umudugudu settlements.     

我国农村商业性金融可持续发展研究

本文从我国农村商业性金融的发展历程与现状入手,分析论述了农村商业性金融可持续发展的制约因素,并在此基础上对发展对策进行了探讨。     

FOREIGN TRADE, COMMERCIAL POLICIES AND THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF THE SONG AND MING DYNASTIES OF CHINA

The paper presents a framework to explore the trade-off between pro-authority and pro-efficiency foreign trade policy. The former is exemplified by the tributary foreign trade system in Imperial China, while the latter by the government-supervised private foreign trade. In the Song Dynasty (960–1276), a strong external enemy compelled the monarchy to choose a pro-efficiency trade policy to finance the army, whereas during the early Ming Dynasty (1368–1644) when China was strong a pro-authority trade policy was favoured. During the late Ming, as the dynasty weakened, accompanied by external threats and internal mismanagement, the imperial government once again chose a pro-efficiency trade policy.     

Land abundance and economic institutions: Egba land and slavery, 1830–19141

The ‘land abundance’ view of African history uses sparse population to explain economic institutions. This article uses colonial court records to show that the Egba of Nigeria fit this theory's predictions. Before 1914, the Egba had imprecisely defined land rights, relied on dependent and forced labour, and used labour to secure loans. These institutions responded to the changing availability of land, labour, and capital. An initial period of land scarcity altered land ownership. A market existed for the most valuable land. Slaves were used by those with better opportunities to acquire them, and credit expanded after the introduction of tree crops.     

Resources,techniques, and strategies south of the Sahara: revising the factor endowments perspective on African economic development, 1500–20001

This article seeks to revise and re‐apply the factor endowments perspective on African history. The propositions that sub‐Saharan Africa was characterized historically by land abundance and labour scarcity, and that the natural environment posed severe constraints on the exploitation of the land surplus, are broadly upheld. Important alterations are suggested, however, centred on the seasonality of labour supply, Ruf's concept of ‘forest rent’, and, for precolonial economies, the role of fixed capital. This revised endowments framework is then applied in order to explore the long‐term dynamics of economic development in Africa, focusing on how the economic strategies of producers and political authorities created specific paths of change which shifted the production possibility frontiers of the economies concerned, and ultimately altered the very factor ratios to which the strategies had been responses.     

试论新型城镇化下的农地金融发展

推进我国新型城镇化不断发展,离不开金融的大力支持。党的十八届三中全会《中共中央关于全面深化改革若干重大问题的决定》进一步强化了农民对土地的使用权和承包权,赋予了农村土地的金融属性。探索农地金融的发展路径,并以此为基础,拓宽传统农村金融服务项目,既可以实现农村金融的飞跃发展,又抓住了金融支持新型城镇化发展的切入点。文章主要是从法制约束、农地流转、农地估价、农业保险和农村社保五个方面探讨了当前发展农地金融的障碍及政策突破。     

以地谋发展模式的风险与改革

土地在中国上一轮经济发展中扮演了独特且举足轻重的角色。这一时期土地制度不仅是实现经济高增长的秘密之一,同时也为中国经济的可持续发展埋下了巨大隐患。权利二元、政府垄断、非市场配置和管经合一的土地管理体制,为地方政府经营土地财政创造了条件,但也带来了日益增加的经济与社会风险。未来中国要实现可持续发展,必须改革以地谋发展模式,包括推动以产权为基础的市场配置方式改革,完成土地财政转型,完善与现代社会相适应的财产税制度,建立公平、共享的增值收益分配制度,建立服务现代社会管理的统一登记制度等五个方面。     

国外银行碳金融业务的发展对我国商业银行的启示

文章从国外银行碳金融业务发展状况入手,对国外银行在碳金融方面的业务开展类型进行了全面归纳和分析,并将我国商业银行碳金融发展状况与之对比,对我国商业银行现有碳金融产品作了全面梳理,从而发现了我国商业银行发展碳金融业务过程中出现的一些问题,并由此提出了推动我国商业银行发展碳金融业务的对策建议。     

Land finance in China: Analysis and review

China's land finance system has been a key contributor to the country's “economic miracle” over recent decades. While there is much existing research on different components of the land finance system, this paper, based on both an academic literature review and data analysis, provides an integrated understanding of how these parts function in tandem around the pivotal role of profitability in the system. First, we summarize the essentials of China's land finance system by providing a framework to understand the self-reinforcing cycle between local governments' financing and spending activities based on urban land-use rights (LURs). We also quantify the magnitude of profits generated by the cycle and its contribution to China's urban development. Second, we investigate the institutional underpinnings of the system, which empower local governments as the monopoly supplier of urban LURs. We also document the rising temporal trend in land prices in most cities. Both these institutional and market factors facilitate the profitability of land finance. Finally, we shed light on the sustainability of the system. Local governments' strong incentives to maximize the profitability of land finance have resulted in increasing economic and social costs/risks. Meanwhile, the feasibility of the system increasingly is coming into question, as both ongoing institutional reforms and recent urban land market cooling raise potentially fundamental challenges to the profitability of land finance.     

我国商业银行中间业务发展现状、问题及对策研究

随着我国金融体制改革的深化,中间业务在继资产业务与负债业务之后,成为了商业银行的第三大支柱,因此,大力发展中间业务已成为商业银行必然的发展趋势。我国政府在商业银行发展中间业务过程中给予了一些指导和帮助,但在其中仍存在着制约其发展的因素。要解决这些问题,就要先分析出我国商业银行中间业务发展的现状,从中理出问题所在,并结合这些问题,根据我国实际,确立中间业务发展模式,逐步推进金融行业混业经营,使我国商业银行能在这一特殊历史时期快速、稳步的发展成为在国际金融市场上具有强大竞争力的商业银行。     

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ON THE URBAN–RURAL DISPARITY IN HUMAN CAPITAL IN CHINA

With China's economic development and capital accumulation in the industrial sectors, the human capital level of the labours moving from the rural areas could no longer meet the demand of the industrial sectors. Therefore, “structural shortage of technical labour” emerged in the labour market as a result of excess of demand for high‐skilled workers. Previous literature mostly focused on the relationship between rural human‐capital level and labour movement, income change and economic growth, but in this article, the authors focus on the study of the relative disparity of urban and rural human capital and labour movement, as well as the effect of the change of urban–rural human capital gap on industrial output, profit and social welfare. This article shows that bridging the urban–rural gap in respect of human capital level could not only improve the situation of the “structural shortage of technical labour,” but also have a positive effect on the general social welfare.     

Small‐family farm types: Examples from Northern Namibia and implications for agrarian reform in South Africa

Small‐farmer types in southern Africa differ significantly in terms of factor‐input patterns and support structures. On peasant family farms (PFF) cash input costs are very low, non‐household labour is sourced largely from communal work groups through kinship ties, and support services needed to sustain production are minimal. By contrast, on commercial family farms (CFF) cash input costs are high, little non‐family labour is used and strong support services are necessary. The first objective of this article is to point out and emphasise the different situations which exist in these two small‐family farm types, based on data from farm studies in Northern Namibia. The second objective is to extract the implications of these differences in relation to development paths under land reform. This is based on experiences of the outcome of land reform in Latin America. It is concluded that the agrarian situation in post‐land reform South Africa will comprise a mix of large‐scale commercial farms and small‐scale farms of both the PFF and CFF types. It will be necessary to recognise the existence of each of these types and their interrelationships, to monitor their development, to understand their different production situations and to cater for their different needs.     

新型城镇化加剧了地方政府的土地依赖吗?——来自中国省际面板分位数估计的经验证据

借助2002年到2011年全国省际面板分位数估计方法实证研究了地方政府土地财政扩张的新型城镇化诱因。结果表明：(1)新型城镇化过程具备市场化内生的自我生财机制;当前导致地方土地财政高企的主要原因在于地方政府追求就业拉动而采取的税收竞争行为。(2)公共服务与社会保障城乡一体化进程在短期内具有增加地方政府财政支出压力性质,但中长期具备快速提振城镇化质量的“回流效应”。(3)东部地区土地依赖程度较高急需建立适应城镇化发展的土地财政代偿机制,而中西部地区土地财政风险可控可继续实施土地出让金提取反哺城镇化发展的战略思路。     

LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN THE LONG RUN: JAPAN, 1600–1909

This article examines long-term labour productivity change in Japan from the early seventeenth century to the nineteenth century. We constructed sectoral labour force estimates based on the methodology presented in a previous study, who provided a sectoral GDP series covering the Tokugawa period. Our results show the industrial structure in the Tokugawa period remained relatively stable in comparison with the economy after the Meiji Restoration. Nevertheless, the estimates of sectoral labour productivity suggest expansion of the market economy in Tokugawa Japan influenced the development of industrialisation after the Meiji Restoration.     

Commercials,careers, and culture: travelling salesmen in Britain, 1890s–1930s*

Within the lower middle‐class, British commercial travellers established a strong fraternal culture before 1914. This article examines their interwar experiences in terms of income, careers, and associational culture. It demonstrates how internal labour markets operated, identifies the ways in which commercial travellers interpreted their role, and explores their social and political attitudes.     

普惠金融视野下大型商业银行介入小额信贷的模式与机制

国外大型商业银行已越来越多介入小额信贷发展,我国普惠金融建设离不开大型商业银行的作用。但过去我国大型商业银行直接从事小额信贷的效果不理想。基于我国小额信贷发展实际寻求一种新的大型商业银行参与小额信贷模式,从理论角度研究大型商业银行与专业性小额信贷机构合作的实现机制,是大型商业银行成功参与小额信贷的重要前提。