财政集权与地方政府行为变化-从援助之手到攫取之手

中央与地方政府之间分配财政资源的不同方式会引起地方政府的利益机制和行为的重大变化。本文构建一个中央与地方政府的博弈模型,并且采用省级数据来说明在90年代中期伴随分税制而来的财政集权如何加剧了地方政府从"援助之手"到"攫取之手"的行为转变。研究发现,虽然中央政府从财政集权中受益,预算收入和经济增长速度却因地方政府的行为变化而显著下降。     

财政集权与地方政府行为变化-从援助之手到攫取之手

中央与地方政府之间分配财政资源的不同方式会引起地方政府的利益机制和行为的重大变化.该文构建一个中央与地方政府的博弈模型,并且采用省级数据来说明在90年代中期伴随分税制而来的财政集权如何加剧了地方政府从援助之手到攫取之手的行为转变.研究发现,虽然中央政府从财政集权中受益,预算收入和经济增长速度却因地方政府的行为变化而显著下降.     

THE TAO OF MARKETS: SIMA QIAN AND THE INVISIBLE HAND1

Adam Smith's famous doctrine of the Invisible Hand, introduced in the Wealth of Nations in 1776, was anticipated by the great Han Dynasty historian Sima Qian (145–87 BC) in his Records of the Historian. Sima Qian's statement is deeper in that, unlike Smith, he links the “invisible hand”’explicitly to the price mechanism. Their analyses had a common philosophical foundation: the characteristically Chinese concept of a general, spontaneous natural order. They arrived at their similar conclusions by applying this concept to a similar contemporary issue in political economy - the appropriate extent of government intervention. More intriguing, if more equivocal, is the possibility of a direct intellectual debt through the agency of A. R. J. Turgot and two Chinese who were visiting Paris as guests of the Jesuits just before Adam Smith's famous visit to the same city.     

FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND THE FDI‐INEQUALITY NEXUS

This article empirically investigates whether the link between foreign direct investment (FDI) and income inequality varies with financial development. Using a smooth transition regression model to a panel of developing and advanced countries over the period of 1976–2005, the results indicate that financial development indeed defines the relationship between FDI and inequality. FDI raises income inequality and the effect becomes stronger in magnitude with financial sophistication. The results also indicate a large variation in the FDI effect across countries and over time, contingent on financial development. (JEL C23, F40, O15)     

平等与增长携手并进-收益递增、策略性行为和分工的效率损失

本文中的策略性劳动分工模型解释了为什么人们有时不选择分工,并造成社会产出损失。由于在高技能部门里存在“干中学”效应,低技能者如果背离比较优势而从事高技能部门的生产,就可以在未来分享劳动分工收益的过程中获得更高的谈判地位,甚至可能逆转自己的比较优势。然而,这种个人理性的选择却可能导致社会的产出损失。这个模型的一个意外而合理的含义是,在策略性的劳动分工决策中,如果未来一期由交易关系瓦解而造成的损失足够小,那么,交易成本的减少也可能导致当期分工的恶化。但我们的模型也包含了交易成本下降可能促进分工这一既有理论中的特殊情况。这个模型有助于理解在国际贸易、国内区域间分工和家庭内分工中广泛被观察到的低效率现象及相应的政策。     

MULTIPLE THRESHOLDS IN THE NEXUS BETWEEN WORKING HOURS AND PRODUCTIVITY

Changes in working hours may have two contrasting effects on productivity: a “fatigue effect” and a “learning effect.” An increase in working hours may lead to the accumulation of workers' proficiency and skill in his or her job, while it may cause the level of workers' fatigue to increase. Our estimation results find multiple thresholds in the linkage between working time and productivity, supporting the existence of learning effect as well as fatigue effect from working time extension. The results of our study provide some implications for the recent discussion on reform of the working time system: for example, (i) the overall effects of changes in working time depend upon a variety of factors, such as the initial level of working hours and the features of the industry concerned; and (ii) job sharing may induce employers to substitute part‐timers for full‐time workers, thereby hindering workers' accumulation of skills. (JEL J24, D24, D92, O47)     

NEXUS BETWEEN HOUSING AND THE MACRO ECONOMY: THE HONG KONG CASE

Abstract.  This paper shows that, consistent with the 'economic base' theory, exports drive domestic consumption and domestic investment, but housing appears to serve as an important link between exports and domestic expenditures. Focusing on the Hong Kong economy, which is a small open economy with a big population, we found that exports and interest rates drive housing prices over a long period, while housing prices in turn drive domestic expenditures.     

当前我国东西合作历史、问题及发展对策

全面建设小康社会下,关于东西合作的研究日益显得重要。文章首先以新中国成立为分界点对东西合作的历史进行了回顾。以此为基础,对当前东西合作现状与成就进行了阐述,并归纳了三条成功经验:政府高度重视和政策支持、企业及民间的积极参与及对口支援、对口帮扶。然后,结合部分调研成果就不管是历史上还是当前甚至今后东西合作都无法逃避的几个关键问题谈了几点认识,如东西部合作各方的利益分配关系、政府干预与市场机制的关系及东西部区域分工模式等。最后,提出了一些相应对策:形成利益共享,风险共担机制;解决资金短缺与投融资政策问题;建立专项法律规范东西部合作与联动;国家支持和市场机制结合起来。     

中国历代藏书家籍贯属地的地理分布和变迁

根据对中国历代有籍可查的2,651位藏书家籍贯地的统计分析,系统的阐述中国历代藏书家地理分布、藏书中心形成和转移的特点及其原因,特别是与社会经济发展、社会动乱、政治中心的形成和转移、造纸和印刷技术的发明和普及应用、藏书传统继承性及其他文化因素的关系。     

广州外来民工边缘化的历史与根源

关于外来民工边缘化的原因,现有研究从社会学角度出发认为主要由城乡二元社会体制以及个人因素所致.文章以广州市1980至2004年中分行业人口与工资为基础资料,运用模型分析法分析发现,广州外来民工经历了从社会边缘化到经济边缘化的演变过程,主要原因在于其相对经济收入越来越低,与城市化经济门槛的差距越来越大.根源在于产业转移平民化导致广州竞争性行业长期以来低附加值、低工资,它在蓬勃发展的垄断性行业的压迫之下,逐步陷入边缘化状态,从而导致以此为主要就业场所的外来民工的边缘化.     

ON THE CONFLICT–POVERTY NEXUS

We develop a model to explore the inter-relationships between conflict and economic activity. We construct a simple two-period model where consumption and investment decisions are made in the presence of governments who consider initiating diversionary conflict to raise their chances of remaining in power. Economies with selfish leaders and lower gains from capital formation may fall prey to engaging in avoidable conflicts thereby lowering investment and hence future growth. Using panel data for over 152 countries from 1950 to 2000, we find evidence for conflict lowering economic growth and, after conditioning on the initial conditions of geography, private, public, and human capital investment, lower growth raising the likelihood of conflict. These results are broadly consistent with our model.     

"PROTECTION AND REAL WAGES": THE HISTORY OF AN IDEA

Few economics articles have achieved the celebrity that still attaches to the paper, "Protection and Real Wages", by Wolfgang Stolper and Paul Samuelson in (1941). In this paper I discuss how the Stolper-Samuelson theorem has been re-interpreted over subsequent decades, and how attempts to generalize the theorem to higher dimensions have met with qualified results. The theorem leads to a simple proposition in political economy: in competitive models any productive factor can have its real return increased by a non-transparent policy whereby relative commodity prices are altered if there are enough commodities and joint production, is not too severe.     

经济地理学与经济学关系的历史考察

经济地理学发展不仅与人文地理的其他分支交互发展,并从包括经济学在内的社会科学内吸收营养。文章通过历史性地考察经济地理学与经济学关系,尝试探索经济地理学未来的发展趋势。通过考察发现:古典经济地理学时期,经济地理学与经济学相互交织、彼此影响;1930、1940时代到1970、1980年代,经济学引领经济地理发展,而经济地理学者没有对主流经济学产生重大影响;1980年代末和1990年代初期,经济地理学吸收经济学相关理论,实现了文化、制度和关系的转向,同时主流经济学则出现了地理化趋势,出现了新经济地理学运动。1980年代以来,演化思想在经济学界逐渐兴盛起来,演化经济学理论已得到越来越多的经济学家的重视,在20世纪90年代,经济地理学家接受了演化经济学的基本概念,开始尝试构建演化经济地理学理论框架。演化经济地理学是经济地理和经济学的下一个交叉点。     

THE HISTORY OF THE UNITED STATES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ANALYTICAL TOOL*

The purpose of this article is to record the history of the national income and product accounts of the United States, concentrating on the period 1932–47. During that period the single national income aggregate evolved into a set of accounts and the estimates emerged as an important analytical tool. Interviews with participants in these developments were extensively utilized to trace the events, people, ideas, and other factors which shaped the history of the accounts. The generally recognized need for economic information during the Great Depression stimulated the request that the Department of Commerce undertake what became the first official continuing series on national income in the United States. These estimates were prepared with the cooperation of the National Bureau of Economic Research and were published in 1934. By the late 1930's, estimates were extended to include income by state and a monthly series. World War II was the impetus for the development of product, or expenditure, estimates. By the mid-1940's, the estimates had evolved into a set of income and product accounts–a consolidated production account, sector income and outlay accounts, and a consolidated saving-investment account–designed to provide a bird's-eye-view of the economy. During this period uses of the accounts widened; analysis of wartime production goals and anti-inflation policy are noteworthy examples. The National Income, 1947 Edition was the culmination of a period of intensive conceptual discussion, extension of data sources, and improvement of estimating techniques. Thereafter the mainlines of development are more familiar, encompassing refinement and elaboration of the estimates and proliferation of uses.     

A NOTE ON SELECTION EFFECTS OF THE HAND RULE

The famous Hand rule weighs the burden of precaution against the reduction in expected harm. The burden may be type‐specific, implying different standards of care for different injurer types. We show that this fact may be exploited by principals in their search for minimized individual costs. Principals may hire agents with high cost of care‐taking although other agents are available. This is shown in a unilateral‐care setting either with perfect or with asymmetric information. We therefore highlight a neglected downside of the negligence rule.     

历史时期上海浦东地区经济开发与政区演变的相关研究

本文通过历史时期长时段的考察,结合其他因素,揭示浦东经济开发与政区设置的相关性特征,并剖析其政区演变的规律及某些不合理性产生的根源.