Discoveries, innovations, and business cycles

There is considerable evidence that the density of basic innovations is peaked at definite periods with intervals of about 40–60 years. This has been used as support for the behavior of economic cycles as postulated by Kontradieff and amplified by Schumpeter. Recently some economists have used this model to forecast economic recovery in the middle or late 1980s.This paper points out that the shape of the clusters of innovation or inventions are different and sharper than those of economic depression or economic recovery. The transfer of knowledge from basic inventions to industrial innovations shortens as one moves from the 18th to the 20th century, and some probable explanations for this are offered. The importance of discoveries and limited discoveries to the process of invention and innovation is discussed. Also shown is that discoveries reveal cluster phenomena which are functionally related to the clusters of invention and innovation.     

Technical note:: Hybrid corn: Its adoption revisited

The analysis presented is for the adoption of hybrid corn. Among the three functional relationships that are tried the log logistic performs best in terms of explanation (R²) and serial correlation before adjusting for it. After adjusting for the serial correlation using the Cochrane Orcutt procedure the differences between the three functional forms practically vanish. The adoption parameter of the log logistic is best explained by economic variables among which the total area of corn in the state, which stands for both the importance in the economy and economies of scale of extension services, is outstanding.     

Participants' response to the Delphi method: An attitudinal perspective

The processes involved in an individual's response to the Delphi method are conditioned by a number of psychological affects. This paper examines aspects of two of these processes: the basis for changing opinions, and the factors related to continued participation in subsequent Delphi rounds. The attitudinal perspective is shown to be promising in explaining an individual panelist's response in the Delphi method. Cognitive dissonance apparently has a significant role to play in bolstering the assimilation of nonconforming respondents. This is, however, complicated by the respondents' perception of the credibility of the feedback received. Careful choice of panels may reduce dropouts, presumably by selecting those with a high degree of ego involvement. Nonetheless, elements of cognitive dissonance apparently lead certain panelists to abandon the Delphi process. It is evident that numerous parallels exist between psychological explanations of attitude change and the behavior of Delphi panelists.     

Forecasting the impact of office automation on clerical employment, 1985–2000

This article offers a forecast of the effects that advances in office automation technology will have on clerical employment in the banking and insurance industries for the period 1985–2000. A new forecasting approach, intended to account more directly for technological change, was developed for the study and is described. Clerical employment in both industries is estimated to peak about 1990 and decline rapidly during the following decade. Under the most conservative assumptions, absolute reductions in clerical employment of 22% in insurance and 10% in banking are expected by 2000. As a preliminary validation of the method, these results are compared to employment forecasts generated independently by executives in the two industries and to the results of other recent employment forecasts.     

Strategic management: The state-of-the-art and beyond

A study of 25 major corporations assesses the state-of-the-art in strategic planning, and explores future prospects for developing a more powerful form of strategic management to cope with the transition to a new economic era. Current planning practices show that large corporations have developed complex strategic information systems, a decision-making process that is inherently organic, and planning operations that embody cybernetic principles. However, the prevailing approach to strategic planning is severely limited because it is based upon an old model of corporate management that has become outmoded: a restricted focus on hard technology leaves critical soft issues unresolved, authoritarian hierarchies produce the typical disadvantages of bureaucracy, and a closed-system orientation isolates the firm from its environment. New approaches to business management seem to be evolving now to overcome these constraints: the frontier of economic progress is shifting to a new form of soft growth, organizational structures are being transformed into entrepreneurial networks, and the institutional role of business is expanding to include its external constituencies. These trends represent key features of a new model of strategic management—the “strategically managed corporation”— that is specifically suited for fostering strategic change.     

Electric vehicles: Market penetration and positive externalities

In this paper, we develop a methodology for approximating the market penetration potential for electric vehicles (EVs). The model is dynamic in nature and explicitly accounts for the competitive effects of conventional vehicles. Unlike many previous models, it does not require an estimation of the time required to achieve a 50% market share. Instead, the model allows one to endogenously determine the rate of market penetration, as well as the ceiling level. We note that some electric vehicle characteristics limit marketability to consumers unaffected by the disadvantages associated with operating EVs. These characteristics are accounted for in the model by the use of a substitution index. The addition of the substitution index allows one to explicitly account for variations in prices, climate, and geographic contour, all of which affect market potential. Electric vehicles are expected to result in positive social benefits by way of reduced pollution emissions and because of the concomitant decrease in the consumption of gasoline that market adoption would bring about. However, the social benefits will not be captured in the market and will not, therefore, encourage the use of these alternatives to conventional vehicles. This means that the rate of adoption of electric vehicles will be slower than is socially optimal, which is a potential argument for government subsidies for electric vehicles. In this paper, we explore a method for analyzing the benefits associated with the adoption of electric vehicles.     

Technological substitution in the United States pulp and paper industry: The sulfate pulping process

This paper presents an econometric analysis of the diffusion of the sulfate pulping process throughout the U.S. pulp and paper industry. A dynamic equilibrium, Gompertz diffusion function is employed to derive a multivariate estimation model which incorporates more information than the traditional approach of estimating the growth rate function alone. The empirical results suggest that the econometric approach provides a useful integration of the technological diffusion process and the comparative static theory of demand. The sulfate pulping process is projected to continue capturing market share at a relatively rapid rate, and could account for 90% or more of total U.S. woodpulp production by the year 2000.     

Who's talking about the future?: An analysis of the U.S. Presidents

What are people actually saying when they are talking and writing about the future? The paper rests on two premises; that the future is essentially a construct of human thought, and that one method of knowing the future is to carefully examine the language used when “the future” is being talked about. The 13 inaugural addresses of the U.S. presidents since 1933 are systematically examined for evidences of their author's future orientation. The paper provides both factual data about the future consciousness of our presidents over the past 50 years, and also demonstrates the use of linguistic analysis for forecasting the future.     

Diffusion of technical change in medicine— a case study of oncology in a traditional society

This article reviews a new program established to provide modern modes of oncologic therapy to Arab cancer patients in the West Bank. The population of this region is distinguished by its fatalistic and traditional attitudes, and communication via word of mouth is prevalent. Therefore, the social system can be considered as one of traditional norms discouraging the adoption of new ideas. Demonstration effects and face-to-face communication proved effective in bringing about social change in health patterns.     

Change mechanisms in the diffusion of residential energy conservation practices: an empirical study

Four types of variables that affect the diffusion of home energy conservation measures are assessed. These variables are the information possessed by households, household attitudes, the economic and demographic characteristics of households, and the attributes of conservation measures. A causal model of behavior change is presented based on Fishbein's theory of reasoned action. The model is tested using panel data on 225 homeowners from Decatur, Illinois and two conservation practices: employing winter night-time thermostat setbacks and adding attic insulation. The results illustrate the importance of all four change mechanisms. Many nonadopters have erroneous information about the financial and other benefits of the two practices. The elderly and the poor are particularly ill-informed. Negative attitudes are closely related to discomfort (for night-time setback) and expense (for attic insulation). As expected, barriers and incentives differ across population subgroups and innovations.     

Earthnet: The university of the future

Herein is described the phoenix rising from the ashes of the dying university.     

The relationship between regression and weighted averages in forecasting

The known relationship between linear regression and weighted averages are examined more extensively in the case of forecasting by univariate regression. Several surprising results accrue from the analysis, including the fact that it is possible for a given observation to have no bearing whatsoever on the forecast.     

Assessing techno-economic alternatives for rural development in Northeast Mexico

In the arid zone of Northeast Mexico are located some of the most socially deprived and economically marginal communities in the nation. This paper analyzes the current status of their social and economic organization and suggests alternative techno-economic subsistence activities that could improve productive capacity while preserving the fragile ecological balance between communities and exploitable natural resources. It shows how recent advances in computer mapping, linear programming, and techno-social modelling (SOPA technique) can assist decision makers and planners in choosing the best mix of social, economic, and technical advantages from an array of scenarios of change. A major finding is that the use of cooperatives as a managerial format is not always the best one to utilize, given the variability of community cohesiveness and varying organizational requirements of different techniques of exploiting animal and plant resources.     

2010年以色列高技术产业与科技成果

以色列是世界上技术创新和投资活动最为活跃的地区之一,其民用科技研发投入占GDP的比重高居世界第一。科技工作实行首席科学家负责制,主要政府部门设有首席科学家办公室。本文对2010年以色列科技发展的重大政策动向、研究与开发支出、新的科技统计数据与指标、知识产权保护、高科技产业发展以及科技成果和国际科技合作动态等情况进行了综合评述。     

The use of discounted least squares in technological forecasting

The use of growth curves in technological forecasting usually employs an equal weighting of all data points in the time series. This paper considers the benefits of weighting recent information more heavily through the utilization of discounted least squares. The method is used to model the growth of the percentage of households with CATV; discounting gives better results for short-term forecasting.     

Energy analysis of Japanese industries : A time series analysis

Characteristics of Japanese industries in the past 15 years have been investigated in terms of energy intensities, or energy directly and indirectly spent for production of a unit output in industries. The methodology of the analysis is similar to that by Herendern, that is an extension of input-output approach, but with various modifications. Data are seven input-output tables, of about 400 x 400 items published by the Japanese government. Changes in energy intensities with time are disaggregated into two factors, 1) changes in direct energy intensities and 2) changes in nonenergy resource use or in the ratios of value added taxes. Observation of these factors in the last 15 years reveals that the latter factor has been highly significant in energy conservation, especially in machine industries, the raw materials of which are mainly iron and steel. It is also observed that conventional energy conservation efforts have scarcely been dependent on nonenergy resource conservation.     

Utilization of Delphi methods for University planning

A Delphi-type project undertaken from 1970–1972 to explore the long-term aims of Carleton University is described. The desiderata of ten participating groups is compared to actual developments in the decade that followed.