The disposition effect in farmers’ selling behavior: an experimental investigation

The identification of the optimal selling time of stored goods is among the most essential economic decisions on a farm. Beyond monetary aspects, behavioral factors influence farmers’ selling decisions. In financial economics, the disposition effect is a commonly observed phenomenon. It describes the fact that investors hold losing stocks too long, while they sell stocks that gained in value too early. In the context of agriculture, this behavioral bias has not been analyzed thoroughly yet. To close this research gap, we conducted an incentivized online experiment with 112 farmers from Germany. The experimental design was based on a well‐proven experiment from financial economics and adapted to an agricultural decision context where stored goods must be sold. Farmers were provided information on the uncertain price developments. In addition, lotteries were conducted to elicit farmers’ risk attitude, probability weighting, and loss aversion. Results indicate that there is a robust disposition effect in farmers’ selling behavior. Furthermore, more loss‐averse farmers exhibited a higher realization of gains.     

Eliciting farmers’ subjective probabilities,risk, and uncertainty preferences using contextualized field experiments

Subjective probabilities as well as risk and uncertainty preferences influence many farmers’ decisions. Few contextualized field experiments were recently conducted to elicit farmers’ risk preferences. Contextualized field experiments use nonabstract framings that are familiar to subjects. Despite adding of context can undermine internal validity, such experiments are increasingly used in applied economics. Contextualized field experiments were never used to elicit farmers’ uncertainty preferences. This paper aims to fill this gap in the literature. This required the development of a new approach in which uncertainty preferences were estimated while controlling for farmers’ subjective probabilities regarding future agricultural outcomes. The experiment involves Scottish farmers’ decisions to plant traditional or new potato varieties. Monetary incentives and incentive compatible elicitation techniques, such as quadratic scoring rules and certainty equivalent multiple price lists, were used. Results from the estimation of Fechner models using maximum likelihood estimation procedures show that failure to control for subjective probabilities generates an underestimation of estimated uncertainty preferences. Farmers are more averse to uncertainty than risk, and their choices are noisier under uncertainty than risk.     

Risk-Taking Preferences of Farmers in Northern Thailand: Measurements and Implications

Risk-taking preferences were elicited from small semi-commercial farmers in Northern Thailand using an experimental procedure that included real monetary payoffs of meaningful magnitudes. A total of five sets of lotteries with increasing payoffs were offered. The farmers were found to be risk averters, and their preferences conformed to the hypothesis of increasing (nondecreasing) partial relative risk aversion. Using regression analysis, farmers' expected variation of rice yields and farm size were found to be directly related to a decrease in risk aversion, while the extent of multiple cropping, availability of non-land household assets, and tested mathematical ability were found to be indirectly related to a decrease in risk aversion. The variables expected variation of rice prices, farmers' age, and tested abstract ability scores were not related to risk-taking preferences.     

Contract farming and smallholder incentives to produce high quality: experimental evidence from the Vietnamese dairy sector

In emerging markets for high‐value food products in developing countries, processing companies search for efficient ways to source raw material of high quality. One widely embraced approach is contract farming. But relatively little is known about the appropriate design of financial incentives in a small farm context. We use the example of the Vietnamese dairy sector to analyze the effectiveness of existing contracts between a processor and smallholder farmers in terms of incentivizing the production of high quality milk. A framed field experiment is conducted to evaluate the impact of two incentive instruments, a price penalty for low quality and a bonus for consistent high quality milk, on farmers’ investment in quality‐improving inputs. Statistical analysis suggests that the penalty drives farmers into higher input use, resulting in better output quality. The bonus payment generates even higher quality milk. We also find that input choice levels depend on farmers’ socio‐economic characteristics such as wealth, while individual risk preferences seem to be less important. Implications for the design of contracts with smallholders are discussed.     

Measuring the risk attitude of decision‐makers: are there differences between groups of methods and persons?

Many studies quantifying individual risk preferences of test persons show that results of different measuring methods may vary. Additional reservations about the reliability of the results regarding the risk attitude measurement arise from the fact that most studies are based on convenience groups, such as students or businessmen in developing countries. With this in mind, we systematically compare different measuring methods to answer the question how the choice of method affects the results. Moreover, we compare the risk preferences of German farmers with those of students and Kazakhstani farmers to investigate whether farmers’ risk preferences can be approximated through those of convenience groups. The methods applied comprise an incentive‐compatible Holt‐and‐Laury‐lottery as well as two psychometric methods. Results show that students respond consistently across all three elicitation methods whereas German and Kazakhstani farmers are more inconsistent. Significant differences exist in the responses of German students and German farmers. The comparison of risk preferences between German and Kazakhstani farmers, however, reveals significant similarities with respect to the psychometric methods.     

External validity of economic experiments on Agri-environmental scheme design

The use of laboratory experiments to study issues in agricultural policy has grown in prominence within the fields of agricultural and environmental economics. Such experiments are often conducted with university students and framed in an abstract manner. This raises questions about whether the findings of these experiments provide reliable insights on the behaviour of actual agents in real settings. We contribute to this methodological debate by analysing the impacts of sample population and framing on behaviour in the experiment and on two policy effects: the direction and the magnitude of the policy impact. We also examine the channels through which differences in results may occur. For this, we test if behaviour is correlated with a set of covariates collected from our samples, including socio-demographics, social and risk preferences. Our main finding is that the type of subject significantly affects the magnitude of the policy impact. The two populations differ substantially in the representation of key characteristics and preferences, which in consequence affects behaviour in the experiment. We find no significant impact of framing on behaviour.     

The impact of grain self‐sufficiency regime on regional welfare and agricultural productivity in China

The nineties’ agricultural reforms in China that were aimed at deregulating the agricultural market eventually resulted in a huge drop in agricultural production and a high rate of inflation in agricultural input prices; this apparently motivated the government to introduce the grain self‐sufficiency regime in 1998. We examine how and to what extent this reform affected the productivity and welfare of grain farmers in China at the regional level. We find that the price regulations that destroyed the incentive to exert more effort adversely affected the growth in agricultural productivity but contributed to the growth in farmers’ welfare. Although the price regulations resulted in short‐term improvement in welfare across all the regions, in the long run such regulations can potentially result in larger drop in agricultural production because of its negative impact on the incentives to produce more.     

The Potential for Cross‐Compliance in Canadian Agricultural Policy: Linking Environmental Goals with Business Risk Management Programs

Environmental cross‐compliance links agricultural program payments to producer commitments to achieve agri‐environmental policy goals. The objective of this study is to determine the feasibility of using cross‐compliance to achieve environmental goals in a Canadian policy context. While Canadian policy makers have flirted with cross‐compliance, with the exception of phosphorus regulations for Quebec hog farms, they have never adopted this approach. The potential for effective cross‐compliance depends on producer participation, producer compliance with regulations, environmental performance, and overall welfare implications. This study reviews the application of cross‐compliance in the United States and EU with regard to the potential application to Canadian agriculture. Policy options are considered which link current business risk management (BRM) programs to alternative environmental regulations (wildlife habitat preservation, nutrient management plans, and beneficial management practices for nutrient management). In general, individual Canadian agricultural support program do not provide sufficient incentives for farmers to participate in cross‐compliance. However, if support programs are combined, it is better to link programs that redistribute income with environmental programs than to link agriculture programs that already address specific market failures.     

Willingness to Pay for Insured Loans in Northern Ghana

Index insurance has been heralded as a potential solution to risk management problems faced by smallholder farmers in developing countries. Despite its potential, demand for standalone index insurance contracts has remained low in early field trials. We investigate the willingness to pay for drought index insurance‐backed loans in northern Ghana using contingent valuation. We find that index insurance lowers overall demand for agricultural loans. We also compare micro‐level index insurance, provided directly to farmers, with meso‐level insurance, provided to the credit agency and find that farmers appear to prefer micro‐level insurance. Finally, farmers are willing to pay to avoid basis risk.     

The (in)stability of farmer risk preferences

We test and quantify the (in)stability of farmer risk preferences, accounting for both the instability across elicitation methods and instability over time. We use repeated measurements (N = 1530) with Swiss fruit and grapevine producers over 3 years, using different risk preference elicitation methods (domain-specific self-assessment and incentivised lotteries). We find that farmers' risk preferences change considerably when measured using different methods. For example, self-reported risk preference and findings from a Holt and Laury lottery correlate only weakly (correlation coefficients range from 0.06 to 0.23). Moreover, we also find that risk preferences vary considerably over time, that is, applying the same elicitation method to the same farmer in a different point in time results in different risk preference estimates. Our results show self-reported risk preferences are moderately correlated (correlation coefficients range from 0.42 to 0.55) from one year to another. Finally, we find experiencing crop damages due to climate extremes and pests is associated with farmers becoming more risk tolerant over time in specific domains.     

Demand for Crop Insurance in Developing Countries: New Evidence from India

Determining farmers’ real demand for crop insurance is difficult, especially in developing countries, where there is a lack of formal financial sector integration and a high reliance on informal risk mitigation options. We provide some new estimates of farmers’ willingness‐to‐pay for insurance in the context of a large‐scale subsidised programme in India. We conducted a discrete choice experiment with agricultural households across four states in India, enabling us to estimate preferences for specific insurance policy attributes such as coverage period, method of loss assessment, timing of indemnity payments and the cost of insurance. Our results suggest that farmers do value crop insurance under certain conditions and some are willing to pay a premium for such coverage in excess of the subsidised rates they are currently required to pay under this programme. In particular, farmers value the assurances that they will receive timely payouts when they incur losses, and may not have a strong preference for the method with which losses are assessed. On the other hand, farmers are quite sensitive to coverage periods. Our baseline assessment shows that when optimised to farmer requirements, there can be a sizeable demand for crop insurance by developing country farmers.     

Derivatives for Development? Small‐Farmer Vulnerability and the Financialization of Climate Risk Management

While agricultural production has always been a risky endeavour, it has become even more so in the current context of climatic change and increasing market uncertainty. Meanwhile, the rollback of state protections has rendered small‐scale farmers, especially marginalized peasant producers in the Global South, particularly vulnerable to these contemporary stressors. This essay critically evaluates the contemporary roll‐out of financial derivatives that purportedly aim to mitigate smallholder vulnerability. It gives particular attention to a novel type of derivative known as index‐based agricultural insurance (IBAI) that plays an increasingly prominent role in initiatives to ‘climate proof’ agriculture. The creation of IBAI markets has required significant work, including (1) technical interventions to debundle environmental risk from agricultural production and rebundle it in novel ways that support private financial capital and agricultural input suppliers, (2) extensive state support in the creation of risk markets, and (3) the construction of an accommodating ‘insurance culture’ among small‐scale producers. In addition to mitigating weather‐based risk, a primary objective of IBAI is to spur agricultural modernization. In promoting this agenda, IBAI initiatives may have the paradoxical effect of exposing smallholders to new risks while expanding their overall vulnerability to environmental and economic stressors.     

The political economy of public research investment and commodity policies in agriculture: an empirical study

The paper tests a political economy theory of simultaneous government decision‐making on income redistribution through commodity policies and on public research investment in agriculture. We use data from 37 countries on agricultural protection and public agricultural research expenditures (PARI). The empirical results are consistent with the political economy hypotheses. The analysis suggest that structural changes in the economy have important effects on the political incentives for governments not only to subsidize or tax farmers, but also to invest in public agricultural research. Furthermore, the analysis supports the hypotheses that the impact of such structural changes on government decision‐making on PARI is non‐linear and conditional on other factors. Regarding the impact of political institutions, the results suggest that more democracy neither leads to more distortionary transfers (agricultural protection), nor to lower investment in public goods (PARI). ©2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.     

Incentive Perception in Livestock Disease Control

The economic incentives facing people making decisions about infectious disease control have been given due theoretical consideration in the literature, based on principles of economic rationality. Such deductive models provide important tools for generating hypotheses. However, the application of such models in a predictive capacity has been criticised. Simultaneously, empirical studies aimed at quantitative exploration of farmer behaviour have relied heavily on social cognitive models, such as the theory of planned behaviour, without exploration of the epidemiological consequences of variability in behaviour within populations. Advances in other social sciences have revealed systematic biases in human reasoning which cast doubt on the validity of the rational economic model as a generalisation of human decision making. We review the characteristics of infectious disease and disease‐control interventions and the potential for bias in implementation decision making at primary producer level. Specific focus is given to the generation of externalities, both positive and negative; the perception of risk, relating to disease incidence, technology adoption and time preference; and finally uncertainty, and its potential to be moderated by trust in information sources. This information is then used to summarise supplemental psychological constructs which taken holistically may strengthen our ability to quantitatively explore human behaviour in this complex decision‐making environment.     

Information about Climate Change Mitigation: What Do Farmers Think?

The adoption of new practices by farmers is one of the key strategies to lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from food production. In this context, effective knowledge transfer systems are essential to inform farmers about climate change, and to convince them of the benefits of new technologies. In this article, farmers’ opinions about climate change, their own efforts to mitigate climate change, and their suggestions on how to improve agricultural advice were assessed. To this end, a survey with over 500 livestock farmers was conducted in Ireland. The findings reveal a high awareness of the urgency to address climate change in general, but many farmers also think agricultural GHG emissions are an overstated problem. In addition, half of the surveyed farmers believe that implementing GHG mitigation measures will lower their profits. These findings underline the need to provide effective knowledge transfer to facilitate the uptake of GHG mitigation measures. When asking farmers directly, by way of text analysis, it emerges that simple messages, group and practical advice that is tailored to individual farming situations is important to farmers. As such, this article provides important insights that are of relevance for designing advisory campaigns to promote climate change mitigation.     

The estimation of agricultural policy effects on soil erosion—An application for the bio-economic model MODAM

As agricultural policies affect land use, they have effects on the amount of soil erosion in agricultural regions through changes of the economic conditions of agricultural production. Prices of inputs and outputs, regulations and incentives can change, forcing or encouraging farmers to adopt new crop rotations. This paper shows how a bio-economic model can be used to describe and estimate the effects of policies on agricultural production and the risk of soil erosion at the example of a region in North-Eastern Germany. The model uses both an assessment tool that is based on a fuzzy-logic approach for the estimation of soil erosion risk of cropping practices, and a linear programming model, that simulates farmers’ economic behaviour under the assumption of gross margin maximisation being the main goal of farmers’ actions.The analysed policy options were both a targeted and an untargeted incentive programme for reduced tillage, and a restriction option where high erosive crops are not allowed on high erodible field types. The results show that policy changes can have an impact on soil erosion. Furthermore, soil conservation policies are shown to have different levels of efficiency in terms of reduced soil erosion related to the costs of the policy. In the case of this study, a restriction option was more efficient than the incentive options. The results of such simulations can serve as a decision support for the development of soil conservation policies and help to foresee the effects of general changes of agricultural policies.     

A portfolio analysis of incentive programmes for conservation,restoration and timber plantations in Southern Ecuador

This paper uses portfolio analysis to study how the Ecuadorian incentive programme for forest conservation and restoration (Socio Bosque), and an incentive programme for timber plantations, may reduce income risk and/or maximise returns for a given level of risk for farmers in the municipality of Loja. The main existing land use in the research area is milk production on pasture, with some farmers having forest land. Our results suggest that most farmers would significantly increase the area under conservation and/or restoration as part of their risk reduction strategies, compared to a decision based solely on expected returns. However, in land use allocations that maximise the return per unit of risk, a small group of milk producers without forest would continue milk production on most of their land. In addition, milk producers with forest would significantly decrease deforestation under the land use allocations made when conservation incentives are available. Against this we also identify a likely shift of milk production from existing pasture to new pasture established on deforested land, which provides evidence of a potential ‘leakage effect’. In addition, the incentive programmes would only lead to small areas of tree plantations being established. None of the land use combinations (portfolios) analysed would increase the income of all households to above the poverty line, as the monetary incentives are too low and many farms are too small. For forest holders all the land use combinations we studied would have a positive impact on income, but we observed a negative impact on household income for milk producers without forest. For producers without any forest, there seems to be a trade-off between maximising household income and risk reduction through combining incentives for restoration and tree plantations.     

农地城市流转前后农民福利变化研究——基于农民分化的视角

农地城市流转是土地资源要素在城市化进程中重新配置的必然过程。为探明异质化日益明显的农民群体的福利水平在此过程中是否发生了差异性变动,采用湖北省武汉市所辖6个远城区的问卷调查数据,运用模糊积分评价方法对纯农业生产者、半工半农者和经商兼农者等3种分化类型农民在农地城市流转前后的福利变动情况进行了实证研究。结果表明,农民整体福利水平在农地城市流转后略有上升;3种分化类型农民的福利水平均有所改善,但改善程度存在差异,改善幅度由大至小依次为经商兼农类农民、半工半农类农民和纯农业生产类农民;提升纯农业生产者和半工半农者这两个分化类型的福利水平是改善农民整体福利状况的关键;此外,影响这两类群体福利水平的因素集中在家庭经济状况、社会保障状况、心理感受以及环境条件4个方面。     

Market imperfections,access to information and technology adoption in Uganda: challenges of overcoming multiple constraints

Limited empirical evidence exists on how multiple binding constraints influence the adoption of improved technologies by smallholder farmers. This article uses the case of groundnut variety adoption in Uganda to investigate the role of information, seed supply, and credit constraints in conditioning technology uptake. New data from a household survey in seven groundnut growing districts (n = 945) indicate that 8% of farmers lack information on new varieties, while 18% and 6% of farmers, respectively, cannot adopt mainly due to seed supply and capital constraints. A tobit‐type specification that considers all nonadopters as being uninterested in the technology (i.e., corner solutions) would lead to inconsistent parameter estimates and incorrect conclusions in this context. We therefore estimate a modified multi‐hurdle specification of demand for new varieties, taking into account how information, seed supply, and capital constraints jointly determine adoption probability and intensity. The study reveals new empirical insights on why agricultural technology adoption in Africa has lagged behind: slow uptake is not mainly due to a lack of economic incentives, but rather a reflection of information, seed supply, and credit constraints that prevent farmers from translating their desired demand into adoption of modern varieties. Policy implications are discussed.