Measuring the risk attitude of decision‐makers: are there differences between groups of methods and persons?

Many studies quantifying individual risk preferences of test persons show that results of different measuring methods may vary. Additional reservations about the reliability of the results regarding the risk attitude measurement arise from the fact that most studies are based on convenience groups, such as students or businessmen in developing countries. With this in mind, we systematically compare different measuring methods to answer the question how the choice of method affects the results. Moreover, we compare the risk preferences of German farmers with those of students and Kazakhstani farmers to investigate whether farmers’ risk preferences can be approximated through those of convenience groups. The methods applied comprise an incentive‐compatible Holt‐and‐Laury‐lottery as well as two psychometric methods. Results show that students respond consistently across all three elicitation methods whereas German and Kazakhstani farmers are more inconsistent. Significant differences exist in the responses of German students and German farmers. The comparison of risk preferences between German and Kazakhstani farmers, however, reveals significant similarities with respect to the psychometric methods.     

Risk Perceptions, Risk Preference, and Acceptance of Risky Food

Consumers' risk preferences are often overlooked in studies of consumer demand for risky food. We find that risk preferences elicited through context-less lottery choices are significantly related to consumers' stated preferences for genetically modified (GM) food. These results suggest risk preferences elicited in the laboratory are not artificial in the sense that they appear to be related to the same risk preferences that govern other individual decisions such as food choice. Consistent with theoretical expectations, risk perceptions and risk preferences were found to be significant determinants of acceptance of GM food, which has important implications for explaining consumer behavior.     

How Closely Do Hypothetical Surveys and Laboratory Experiments Predict Field Behavior?

We compare the ability of three preference elicitation methods (hypothetical choices, nonhypothetical choices, and nonhypothetical rankings) and three discrete-choice econometric models (the multinomial logit [MNL], the independent availability logit [IAL], and the random parameter logit [RPL]) to predict actual retail shopping behavior in three different product categories (ground beef, wheat flour, and dishwashing liquid). Overall, we find a high level of external validity. Our specific results suggest that the nonhypothetical elicitation approaches, especially the nonhypothetical ranking method, outperformed the hypothetical choice experiment in predicting retail sales. We also find that the RPL can have superior predictive performance, but that the MNL predicts equally well in some circumstances.     

Inducing private wildfire risk mitigation: Experimental investigation of measures on adjacent public lands

Increasing private wildfire risk mitigation is an important part of the larger forest restoration policy challenge. Data from an economic experiment are used to evaluate the effectiveness of providing fuel reductions on public land adjacent to private land to induce private wildfire risk mitigation. Results show evidence of “crowding out” where public spending can decrease the level of private risk mitigation. Findings also indicate that spending on private mitigation efforts increase when information about individual expenditures are made available and spending on public land fuel reductions are conditional upon a threshold level of private mitigation effort being achieved.     

An experimental approach to valuing new differentiated products

An experimental store was created to evaluate initial demand for locally produced and guaranteed tender steak products as a more realistic alternative to contingent valuation (CV) and dichotomous-choice experimental methods. Strengths of the approach are incentive compatibility, a realistic consumption set, and a familiar choice environment. Consumers selected among USDA Choice, premium quality, lean, guaranteed tender and locaily produced strip steaks. A double-hurdle count data model indicated initial willingness-to-pay (WTP) for locally produced steak comparable to prior CV results, but demand was highly elastic. Demand for premium quality steak crowded out demand for the guaranteed tender product, contrasting with prior dichotomous-choice experimental results.     

宅基地使用权流转制度改革的制度经济学解析

研究目的：以“外部利润——同意一致性——宅基地制度创新”为研究主线,对江都市宅基地流转进行制度诠释,探讨蕴含其中的理论价值和政策含义。研究方法：文献资料法、理论分析法、实证分析法。研究结果：宅基地使用制度的外部环境发生了变化,外部利润显著增加,宅基地使用权流转制度具有强烈的现实需求。宅基地使用权的流转不仅能够有效弥补现行农村土地制度的不足,壮大集体经济组织实力,而且能够实现地方政府、集体经济组织和农民的共赢,达到一致同意。研究结论：宅基地使用权流转制度改革是一种较优的政策选择。     

Joint Estimation of Risk Preferences and Technology: Flexible Utility or Futility?

A thought experiment is designed to investigate whether the structure of risk aversion (i.e., the changes in absolute or relative risk aversion associated with changes in wealth) can be estimated with reasonable precision from agricultural production data. Findings strongly suggest that typical production data are unlikely to allow identification of the structure of risk aversion. A flexible-utility parameterization is found to slightly worsen technology parameter estimates. Results also indicate that even under a restricted-utility specification, utility parameter estimates are biased. Further, their quality is much worse when shocks are not large or samples are small.     

Is native timber tree intercropping an economically feasible alternative for smallholder farmers in the Philippines?

Integration of trees on upland farms in the Philippines has been slower than expected and desirable from an environmental perspective. Our economic and risk analysis points to current policies as part of the problem. The study compares three domesticated indigenous timber trees (Shorea contorta V., Pterocarpus indicus J., and Vitex parviflora W.) intercropped with maize against a benchmark of the widely used exotic mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla K.). We used a biophysical simulation model (WaNuLCAS 3.1) to represent interaction between trees and crops for a fundamental level of water, nutrient and light capture as the basis for production functions. External conditions affecting systems profitability were accounted for in the Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM). Elements of risk were introduced through Monte Carlo simulation. Study results revealed that from a farmer’s perspective intercropping systems provide similar (within an uncertainty range of + or ? 10%) returns to monocropping scenarios. When net subsidies and taxes are accounted for, social profitability evaluations favour tree intercropping at high tree densities. The net effect of the current bias in price policies towards food production therefore refrains farmers from making decisions to integrate trees on farms; a decision that is actually in the national interest on economic grounds, even without consideration of positive environmental effects.     

Is Risk Aversion Really Correlated with Wealth? How Estimated Probabilities Introduce Spurious Correlation

Economists frequently focus on correlations between wealth and risk preferences but rarely observe the probabilities needed to test this relationship empirically. These unobserved probabilities are typically estimated via profit or production functions conditioned on wealth correlates, which may leave statistical fingerprints on subsequently-estimated risk aversion coefficients and confound correlations between wealth and risk preferences. Using data from an experiment with observable probabilities, we compare risk aversion coefficients based on true probabilities with those based on probabilities estimated using standard approaches and show how estimated probabilities can change risk aversion coefficients substantially and introduce spurious correlation between risk aversion and wealth.     

Analysing Dutch dairy farmer behaviour towards the provision of public goods: The added value of an economic simulation experiment

The objective of this paper is to examine the value of experiments for assessing the impact of the proposed Common Agricultural Policy of 2013 on farm income and farming strategies. We focus specifically on the impact of an alternative direct payment system based on a flat rate and green payments. We show the added value of an economic simulation experiment to existing economic micro- and sector modeling analysis when analyzing farmer behavior. It is shown that the suitability of and rewards for the provision of green services play a significant role in their uptake by farmers and the support for them. These results are useful in implementing a revised direct payments system in the Netherlands for the future.     

关于水利部所属各级事业单位投资企业风险防控的若干思考

在识别水利部所属各级事业单位投资企业面临主要风险的基础上,提出了企业风险防控工作的总体思路,从内部控制、外部监督管理两个层面构建了水利部所属各级事业单位投资企业风险防控制度框架,并提出了加强企业风险防控工作的相关建议。