森林资源资产化经营风险与防范策略分析

从风险与风险管理的角度出发,将风险理论引入森林资源资产化经营中,提出森林资源资产化经营风险的定义,在分析其主要风险类型的基础上,提出保险、灾害救济、建立风险基金和最低价格保护制度、补贴信贷、加强信息服务、加强基础研究与深化体制改革等防范与应对森林资源资产化经营风险的策略,以促进中国的森林资源资产化管理进程。     

风险感知、风险态度对农村土地经营权流转的影响研究 ——以浙江省嘉兴市农村土地经营权流转为例

研究目的:探究风险感知、风险态度对农村土地经营权流转的影响作用,为推进农村土地流转制度创新实践提供理论和实证依据。研究方法:将风险感知理论与风险态度理论相结合,探讨两者对农村土地经营权流转的影响作用,提出研究假设,并通过浙江省嘉兴市农户的调查数据进行验证。研究结果:(1)风险感知对农村土地经营权流转产生显著负向影响;(2)风险态度对农村土地经营权流转产生显著负向影响;(3)风险感知和风险态度的交互作用对农村土地经营权流转产生显著负向影响,表明具有较小风险规避程度的农户,即使感知到农村土地经营权流转具有较大风险时,流转土地经营权的可能性也将增加。研究结论:农村土地制度创新实践中,关注风险感知因素和风险态度因素将有助于推进农村土地经营权流转。     

Supply Management in Canadian Agriculture: An Assessment of the Economic Effects

Marketing boards with supply management powers have become part of Canadian agriculture, yet whether these boards improve society's welfare is a much-debated issue. This paper reviews both the methodology and the empirical results of studies which have assessed the effects of supply management. All of the studies reviewed show that there is a sizeable income transfer from consumers to producers along with a misallocation of resources as a result of supply management. However, one could easily reverse these conclusions by changing the assumptions upon which past research has rested. Furthermore, additional research is needed on supply management in the context of both a rent-seeking framework and from an industrial organization point of view.
Les commissions de commercialisation possédant des pouvoirs sur la gestion des stocks. sont devenues inhérentes a ľagriculture canadienne; il y a cependant, controverse quant a ľeffet qu'apportent ces commissions sur le bien-être de la société. Cette analyse examine à la fois la méthodologie ulilisée, de méme que les résullats empiriques obtenus selon des études examinées, montrent qu'il y a un transfert considérable de revenu, entre les consummateurs et les producteurs, allant de pair avec une mauvaise répartition des ressources, résultant de la gestion des stocks. Cependant, comme le démontre cette étude, il est facilement possible ďinverser ces conclusions en changeant les hypothèses sur lesquelles la recherche antérieure a été bátie. De plus, une recherche supplément aire, sur la gestion des stocks, dans le contexte ďune structure recherchant un cadre, et du point de vue de ľorganisation industrielle est nécéssaire.     

林权抵押贷款信用风险管理探析

通过研究林权抵押贷款管理相关规章制度以及福建省林权抵押贷款业务操作流程,分析了林权抵押贷款信用风险管理的模式、特点及存在问题。研究认为金融机构建立了林权抵押贷款全流程管理模式;林权抵押贷款信用风险管理特点是"银政"合作的评估机制、"银政保"合作的森林保险模式与"银政合作"的反担保机制;存在的主要问题是贷款审查流于形式、信用评级粗放与贷款合约设计苛刻等。     

基于RRM模型的神木县土地整治规划生态风险评价

研究目的：对土地整治规划进行生态风险评价,定量测算各风险小区的生态风险值,确定其风险等级,为制定风险管理决策做重要的理论和实践探索。研究方法：相对风险模型（RRM）。研究结果：神木县土地整治规划生态风险共分为4级,Ⅰ区为低风险区,Ⅱ区为中风险区,Ⅲ区为较高风险区,Ⅳ区为高风险区。研究结论：（1）通过研究风险源、生境和生态受体之间的相互作用关系,实现了土地整治规划生态风险评价的定量化;（2）针对各风险小区风险等级的高低和面临生态风险类型的差异,提出相应的风险管理策略,为本轮土地整治规划的实施提供科学指导。     

Technology, Environment and the Productivity Problem in African Agriculture: Comment on the World Development Report 2008

This paper is concerned with the need for a 'productivity revolution in smallholder farming' that the World Development Report 2008 (WDR08) identifies is required in sub-Saharan Africa. It reviews the technological options for such a productivity revolution in Africa, and how these are conditioned by the 'agriculture-based' model the WDR08 uses to characterize African economies. It argues that the model effects, firstly, a disconnection of agriculture from 'urban' Africa that constitutes its principal market and the source of investment and inputs with which to raise productivity, and, secondly, an adherence to unrealistic and sometimes contradictory assumptions about the way markets link agriculture to other parts of the economy.     

地质灾害风险管理研究综述及展望

地质灾害风险管理是一种寻求更加合理有效的地质灾害减灾防灾的理念和模式。国外对于地质灾害风险管理的研究,主要是通过采用现代高技术与地质灾害风险管理相结合的方式体现出来的。国内学者对我国地质灾害的类型、特征、影响因素、分布状况和区域发展规律等进行了深入的研究,提出了许多新理论、新观点。需要解决的问题:(1)如何评估灾情程度需要科学的理论与切实可行的方法;(2)需要借助现代信息技术和数值模拟仿真技术建立地质灾害风险评价与风险管理的数学模型,以进一步拓展地质灾害风险管理的研究体系;(3)需要结合具体的区域,对风险管理措施、手段及传导机制进行系统仿真和比较研究。     

基于共识模型和前景理论的输水工程运行安全风险评价

为了评估输水工程运行安全中防汛度汛不及时、地基缺陷、应急反应不及时、冰期输水不畅、异常渗透和水质安全出现问题6种关键风险因素的优先级,采用基于共识模型和前景理论改进的故障模式及影响分析法(FMEA),用语言分布评价法评估风险因子信息,用信任关系作为共识调整系数修改共识模型,用前景理论对故障模式的风险进行优先级排序。研究结果表明,异常渗漏的风险最大,冰期输水不畅风险最小,与实际情况相一致;并通过与其他改进的FMEA方法比较,验证了排序结果的可行性和有效性。     

企业规避应收账款管理风险的研究

论述企业日常应收账款管理中普遍存在的问题,即企业缺少风险防范意识、企业内部相关部门信息渠道不畅通、企业缺乏必要的制度责任管理、企业的日常管理工作不规范。简述企业应当采取有效措施防止应收账款的恶化、提高应收账款的质量、加强对应收账款管理。提出企业规避应收账款管理风险的对策,阐明了企业必须采取加强销售监督降低风险、严格审批手续及时报账、强化管理动态跟踪、健全内控制度控制风险的相应对策,以规避企业应收账款的管理风险。     

风险分析体系在食品安全管理中的应用效果

全球经济一体化发展程度的加深使食品国际贸易得到了迅速发展,传统饮食上的地域限制逐渐被打破,在此发展背景下,影响食品行业的不安全因素也在不断增多。近年来,随着物质生活水平的不断提升,人们对食品安全的关注程度也在不断加深,在确保公平贸易、促进经济平稳高速发展的同时,做到有效规避风险、确保公众健康安全,是对食品安全的基本要求。本文主要分析了食品安全管理中,风险分析体系的作用及应用效果。     

The Demand for Hedging and the Value of Hedging Opportunities

Hedging strategies typically assume that hedging is costless and that only one futures market exists. When these assumptions are dropped, the demand for hedging is shown to depend on basis risk, price risk, and the hedger's risk preference. The marginal and incremental value of hedging opportunities are computed for the general cases of one and two markets and applied to the specific case of Pennsylvania dairy input hedging.     

承接产业转移与中部地区高资本技术农业发展

高资本技术农业创新依赖于结构转换的深化。中部地区承接产业转移有助于深化结构转换,并对高资本技术农业创新产生拉动效应。坚持以城镇为载体承接非农产业转移和进一步完善农产品及农业要素市场,应该成为中部地区承接产业转移的重要政策选项。     

张謇农工商一体化的构想与实践

张謇为了救国富民,针对中国当时经济、文化落后的国情,提出了农工商一体化的构想,其核心是“棉铁主义”,立足点在“棉”上,通过“棉”与“纺”,把“农”与“工”与“商”联系在一起,构成了张氏“实业救国”、“教育救国”、“地方自治”的主要内容,并采取相应的对策,一一付诸实践,将原先闭塞、落后、贫穷的南通建成了开放、进步、富裕的“模范县”,取得了举世瞩目的业绩,获得了中外一致好评。     

Spatial Dynamics of Water and Nitrogen Management in Irrigated Agriculture

Dynamic optimization of crop production with nonuniform irrigation and nitrogen carryover and leaching is considered. A production function system with thresholds, plateau maximum, and yield reduction is estimated from experimental data; rapid convergence to a steady-state is observed. Spatial variability implies a 40% increase in applied water and a six-fold increase in nitrate emissions, while dynamic optimization has more modest impacts. Nitrate emission control is accomplished primarily through reduced applied water, illustrating a strong cross-policy effect. Significant levels of water conservation and nitrate pollution control are achieved at relatively low cost with traditional irrigation systems and baseline conditions.     

Not All Thin Markets Are Alike: The Case of Organic and Non‐genetically Engineered Corn and Soybeans

We use time series methods to explore the relationship between prices for two different niche versions of feed corn and soybeans, and their conventional counterparts. Whereas organic versions are linearly cointegrated, and their premia are high and stable, non‐GE products – which are nonlinearly cointegrated – exhibit narrower premia that are subject to collapse. Because organics are also non‐GE, these differences point to the value of a well‐recognised and enforced USDA organic label and/or the importance consumers place on the non‐GE attributes of organic products.     

A Spatial Econometric Approach to the Economics of Site-Specific Nitrogen Management in Corn Production

The objective of this study is to determine the potential for using spatial econometric analysis of combine yield monitor data to estimate the site-specific crop response functions. The specific case study is for site-specific nitrogen (N) application to corn production in Argentina. Spatial structure of the yield data is modeled with landscape variables, spatially autoregressive error and groupwise heteroskedasticity. Results suggest that N response differs by landscape position, and that site-specific application may be modestly profitable. Profitability depends on the model specification used, with all spatial models consistently indicating profitability, whereas the nonspatial models do not.     

Risk preferences of commodity crop producers and specialty crop producers: An application of prospect theory

Producers’ decisions, such as crop insurance, contract agreement, and technology adoption, involve considerable risk and uncertainty. Particularly, specialty crop production is more vulnerable to risk and requires more intensive management than commodity crop production, while risk mitigation tools for specialty crop production are comparatively limited. We apply Prospect Theory (PT) to analyze risk preferences of U.S. producers, and further compare the preference differences between commodity crop and specialty crop producers. Reference dependent, diminishing sensitivity, loss aversion, and probability weighting, as well as certain farm characteristics and producer demographics, are found to have a significant impact on grower risk attitudes. In addition, we do not observe significant differences in the base PT estimates between commodity crop and specialty crop producers. However, the relationships between risk behavior and individual characteristics vary between the two types of producers, which shed lights on the development of agricultural policies and provide implications for the design of contract and insurance.     

Risk effects of GM corn: Evidence from crop insurance outcomes and high-dimensional methods

This study evaluates whether genetically modified (GM) corn hybrids with rootworm resistant traits (GM-RW) have lower yield risk. A crop insurance actuarial performance measure, the loss cost ratio (LCR), is used to represent yield risk. High-dimensional methods are utilized in this study to maintain parsimony in the empirical specification, and facilitate estimation. Specifically, we employ the Cluster-Lasso (cluster-least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) procedure. This method produces uniformly valid inference on the main variable of interest (i.e., the GM-RW variable) in a high-dimensional panel data setting even in the presence of heteroskedastic, non-Gaussian, and clustered error structures. After controlling for a large set of potential weather confounders using Cluster-Lasso, we find consistent evidence that GM corn hybrids with rootworm resistant traits have lower yield risk.     

The Role of Risk and Transaction Costs in Contract Design: Evidence from Farmland Lease Contracts in U.S. Agriculture

The objective of this article is to provide new empirical evidence on landlord-tenant choices of share versus cash-rent contracts in U.S. agriculture. The focus is on the contribution of explanatory variables that represent transaction costs, risk-sharing incentives, or both. An empirical model of contract choice is tested against the 1999 Agricultural Economics and Land Ownership Survey (AELOS) and finds mixed evidence for low transaction cost and risk-sharing-incentive motives for landlord-tenant choices of a share versus cash-rent contract. However, the behavior of landlords and tenants is consistent with them being risk averse. Although it is standard to control for the riskiness of the principal's task that is contracted, we find that other attributes of the landlord are an important part of a relatively complex story for U.S. land tenancy contacting. The latter results have generally been ignored in other published landlord-tenant contracting studies.     

Production Risk and Technical Efficiency in Organic and Conventional Agriculture – The Case of Arable Farms in Germany

This paper quantifies the importance of production risk and technical efficiency as two possible sources of production variability in German organic and conventional farming. Determinants of production risk and inefficiency are investigated based on a combination of Just and Pope’s stochastic production framework and a Stochastic Frontier Analysis. The empirical analysis is conducted using a balanced panel of farm records from 1999/2000 to 2006/2007 on 37 organic and conventional arable farms, respectively. Euclidian‐Distance‐Matching is used to identify for each organic farm a conventional counterpart with similar structural features. Results indicate that output variability in both production technologies is mainly caused by production risk. Land and labour are identified as risk‐increasing inputs in both farm types whereas higher capital endowment, seed costs and soil quality have risk‐reducing effects.