Housing Costs and the Elderly

Estimates are made of changes in average housing costs and average family incomes for non-moving elderly homeowners and renters over the period 1972–80. Findings suggest that: rental costs are higher in each time period than are homeownership costs; evidence of serious deterioration in affordability of housing is weak, when looking at aggregate price/income ratios; and it is clear that elderly renters are more seriously disadvantaged in housing affordability than are elderly homeowners at every time period.     

A Price Dispersion Equilibrium in a Spatially Differentiated Housing Market with Search Costs

An equilibrium model of search in a spatially differentiated rental housing market is formulated that predicts both rent dispersion and equilibrium vacancies. The equilibrium rent distribution is determined on the landlord's (rental supply) side given tenants' search strategies. Then tenants' optimal search strategy, denned by the share of the market a tenant searches, is determined given the costs and benefits of search and the distribution of landlords' rents. The equations of supply and demand for rental units are then combined to derive a costly information, free-entry Nash equilibrium in the market rents. Finally, the sensitivity of equilibrium vacancies and rents to changes in search costs and other exogenous parameters is explored.     

Commuting with Lost Housing Services as the Opportunity Cost

In American metropolitan areas, households are highly mixed by income with higher average incomes at greater distances from downtown. Also, suburbs attract families with children, while poor households and small households with young heads select sites close to the commercial core. These empirical observations and others are predicted by this standard model of a monocentric city with three major modifications. Time at work is controlled by employers, not employees. Households with more members at home consume in the same house more housing services. Finally, lot prices need not be proportional to area. In the resulting equilibrium, households are mixed by income and separated by family size. This contrasts with classic urban models where households are separated only by their workers' wage rates.     

Housing Costs and Prices Under Regional Regulation

The regulation of development by regional agencies was proposed in the American Law Institute's Model Land Development Code. The objective of this additional regulation was to bring new development into accord with the growing concern with environmental degradation. The State of Florida was the first state to adopt its own version of the Code. This article reviews the housing cost and price impacts of this regulatory process as it has evolved in Florida. The empirical evidence suggests that both the cost and the price of new housing subject to this review are increased above that of housing exempted.     

Housing Adjustment Costs: Their Impact on Mobility and Housing Demand Elasticities

The role of housing adjustment costs in influencing mobility decisions, and the relationship between these and housing demands is not well understood. Here we try to examine how changes in adjustment costs as well as in such demand factors as income, influence the decision of households to adjust their housing consumption through moving. Empirically, we use a sample of recently moving homeowners from the PSID and provide evidence indicating adjustment costs are more important than other demand factors in influencing mobility decisions. We also argue that sample selection may bias estimates of housing demand elasticities when the sample is restricted to recent movers because the influence of adjustment costs in the mobility decision are not accounted for. Testing for this using the Heckman two-stage procedure, however, showed this was not a significant problem.     

Speculators and Price Overreaction in the Housing Market

This paper investigates the role of speculators in the housing market, specifically their contribution to price overreaction through positive feedback trading (or momentum trading). We exploit a unique data set of condominium transactions in a residential real estate market where transaction traits associated with short‐term speculation can be identified. In the cross‐section of housing projects, a 10‐percentage‐point increase in trading activity following a strong short‐run market price rise predicts a negative subsequent monthly price change of 0.5% at the project level. Moreover, the price reversal effect associated with the momentum trading by short‐term speculators is two to three times stronger, and holding such trading constant, momentum trading in general has little additional impact. Our findings further suggest that momentum trading by short‐term speculators contributes to price overreaction largely in submarkets with lower information efficiency.     

Housing Supply,Land Costs and Price Adjustment

We analyze relationships between housing supply elasticities, land costs and house price dynamics, contributing three main insights. First, higher housing supply elasticities help contain short‐run price spikes following demand shocks. Second, land price dynamics influence this relationship; supply responses are lessened and house price spikes are exacerbated as land prices increase. Third, we estimate a system of regional equations modeling housing supply using a Tobin's‐q specification (incorporating construction and land costs) and show that regional price dynamics are a function of the region's supply elasticity.     

Resale Externality and the Used Housing Market

The selling prices of used houses may not fully reflect the maintenance spending of current owners when prospective buyers are unable to conduct a thorough inspection before purchase. This article investigates how this resale externality problem affects the maintenance expenditures of homeowners. After considering both observable and unobservable repair expenses, the analysis shows that the resale externality reduces not only maintenance expenditures, but also household mobility. A treatment effects model is used to estimate the simultaneous relationship between mobility and maintenance in the Japanese resale housing market. The results indicate that the resale externality has a significant negative impact on maintenance expenditures.     

Housing Policy Implementation Effect Analysis in the Macro-control Round of Housing Market

为了解政府对住房市场宏观调控采取政策的执行效果,采用定性分析的方法对住房市场宏观调控中的金融、房贷和土地政策进行分析.在梳理总结各类政策的基础上,分析政策出台规律、政策实施效果以及造成市场现状的根源及深层次原因.结合政策特点和问题根源,提出相应的政策建议改善住房市场调控现状,建立住房市场宏观调控的长效机制.     

Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market

The paper uses quarterly indexes of existing single-family home prices estimated with microdata on properties that sold more than once to estimate excess returns to investment in owner-occupied housing. Housing prices and excess returns are estimated over the period 1970:1 to 1986:3 for Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, San Francisco. Using time-series cross-section regressions we test for the forecastability of prices and excess returns using a number of independent variables. Price changes in one year tend to continue for more than one year in the same direction. The ratio of construction costs to price, changes in adult population and increases in real per capita income all are positively related to excess returns or price changes over the subsequent year. The results add weight to the argument that the market for single-family homes is inefficient.     

The Resale Housing Market

This paper describes and analyzes the structure and operation of the market for existing single-family homes. The paper develops aggregative models of sales and renovation activity based on the adjustment choice decisions of households to alter their housing consumption by moving or by undertaking renovations. The models demonstrate that housing resales and renovation expenditures occur when the present value of the gains associated with a housing adjustment exceeds the costs of the transaction. The choice of the adjustment mode is shown to be significantly influenced by the relative transactions costs of moving versus renovating.     

Risk and Return within the Single-Family Housing Market

The trade-off between risk and return in equity markets is well established. This paper examines the existence of the same trade-off in the single-family housing market. That market is dominated by homeowners, who constitute about two-thirds of U.S. households. For them the choice about how much housing and what house to buy is a joint consumption-investment decision. Furthermore, owner-occupied housing is by nature a lumpy investment whose risk cannot be completely diversified. Does this consumption-investment link negate the risk-return trade-off within the single-family housing market? Theory suggests the link still holds. This paper supplies empirical evidence in support of that theoretical result.     

Housing Market Conditions, Listing Choice and MLS Market Share

In some housing markets, a seller may hire a broker to multiple list or exclusively list a property for sale or may bypass the brokerage industry and list the property privately as a "sale by owner." This article introduces a new model that illustrates the factors which will impact on the broker's and seller's preferred type of listing. An implication of the model is that if the choice is available, sellers and real estate brokers will employ a multiple listing service more often during slower market periods where the volume of sales is low and properties are more difficult to sell. An empirical analysis of Vancouver data yields results consistent with these arguments.     

Modeling and Computing Transactions Costs for Purchasers of Housing Services

This paper models, as equilibrium behavior, buyers' behaviors under transactions costs and market failure constraints. It derives equilibrium conditions and it shows how they differ from unconstrained models. Standard utility and cost parameters are then used to estimate the economic costs of the constraints, which may be interpreted, at the margin, as the transactions costs of moving. If transactions costs are greater than the economic costs of the constraints, the household remains in a residence, even in response to changed price and income expectations. Changes in expected prices and incomes lead to changed housing demand even when the household cannot adjust housing consumption between periods. These findings have implications for empirical work with both cross-section and panel data sets.     

Evaluating the Costs of Increased Lending in Low and Negative Growth Local Housing Markets

The literatures on default and the evaluation of low downpayment mortgage programs are extended by showing within an options pricing framework how differences in expected price appreciation trends across housing markets can influence default and, thereby, the cost of programs designed to increase mortgage liquidity. An equilibrium mortgage rate reflecting the risk premium required to compensate for expected default-related losses is endogenously determined within the model. Evaluating the entire process by which program losses arise strictly within a rigorous asset pricing framework has potentially important implications for policy evaluation, as the estimated present value of program losses in declining markets where expected default is high is quite sensitive to the choice of the discount rate. The implications of increased lending in low and negative price appreciation local markets are also investigated.     

Real Estate Brokers and the Market for Residential Housing

This study explores the role of the real estate broker in the housing market. A model of the demand for broker services by both sellers and buyers is developed and conditional logit estimates are presented. Evidence relating to the effects of the brokerage industry on housing market transactions also is presented. Brokers do not seem to affect the prices of the houses they sell. But they do influence the level of housing consumption by buyers.     

南京市房建工程交易市场结构及温饱度分析

文章旨在考察南京房建工程交易市场的市场结构与企业温饱度情况.利用南京市房建工程交易市场的交易数据,从市场供需、市场集中度、各资质级别企业比例结构三个方面分析了交易市场结构.根据有关规定和相应的假设,推算了企业市场规模基本额,并在此基础上分析了各资质等级企业群的市场温饱度.分析结果表明,南京房建工程交易市场是一个集中度较低,供求关系不平衡,各资质等级企业比例结构不合理的市场结构;交易市场中各资质等级企业群的市场温饱度偏低.     

Internet Search Behavior,Liquidity and Prices in the Housing Market

We employ detailed internet search data to examine price and liquidity dynamics of the Dutch housing market. We show that the number of clicks on properties listed online proxies demand and the number of listed properties proxies supply. From this internet search behavior, we create a market tightness indicator and we find that this indicator Granger causes changes in both house prices and housing market liquidity. The results of a panel VAR suggest that a demand shock results in a temporary increase in liquidity and a permanent increase in prices in urban areas. This is in accordance with search and matching models.