The End of a Romance? A Note on the Quantitative Impacts of a ‘Brexit’ from the EU

This study suggests UK equivalent variation (EV) gains of €8.9 billion on withdrawal from the EU budget. Factoring in associated trade facilitation costs from the loss of UK access to the single market, annual UK EV losses could be as high as €14.0 billion, with the EU‐28 facing a corresponding loss of €40.4 billion. Interestingly, the extrapolated UK gain arising from withdrawal from the ‘CAP’ component of the EU budget exceeds estimated lower and upper bound trade facilitation costs exclusively on EU agrofood trade. Accordingly, the UK should realistically remain as an EU member, although continue to lobby for reductions in the CAP budget.     

How to assess the impact of hope on a change in the use of land on market value?

This article is devoted to common yet quite specific approaches to valuation practice tasks that are involved in determining the market value of real properties in areas of possible land use changes. An intrinsic element of market value in such areas is the hope value, for which an option pricing model is used quite frequently.The authors propose a specially adapted Samuelson-McKean model for this task, which allows market value indication to be determined not only with the built-in development option, but also the dynamics of its components value in the current highest and best use and hope value – depending on the location of the given property. The greatest advantage of the Samuelson-McKean model is that it can be treated as universal for analyzing the range of possible indications of market value seeing as how its main task is to find a compromise between the interests of the buyer and the seller, which is the goal of any fair transactions and decisions.     

What drives innovation in the agricultural sector? A spatial analysis of knowledge spillovers

This article analyses the spatial concentration of agricultural innovation in Ireland. Influenced by the importance of knowledge spillovers, the roles of key innovation drivers are discussed. The analysis reveals a clear spatial concentration of agricultural innovation and while some of this variation can be explained by the spatial concentration of the sector, there are also other factors at play that drive the spatial distribution of innovation. More specifically, the distributions of research, education and advisory services show a similar spatial pattern to agricultural innovation, providing support for the existence of regional knowledge spillovers.     

What Does Granger Causality Prove? A Critical Examination of the Interpretation of Granger Causality Results on Price Effects of Index Trading in Agricultural Commodity Markets

The influence of index trading on price levels, returns, spreads or volatility in agricultural commodity markets is frequently investigated with bivariate Granger Causality (GC) tests. A joint review of existing empirical studies reveals scant and inconsistent evidence of GC from index activity to prices. Some findings of reverse GC from prices to index activity are reported. The literature offers three different interpretations of GC test results: (i) as prima facie causal evidence; (ii) as a test for informational efficiency of the markets; or (iii) as a test for the ability of one variable to improve the forecast of another variable. A critical examination of these interpretations against an extended theoretical background reveals that none allows direct inferences about the existence or absence of an influence from index trading activity on the price mechanism in the market. This severely limits the usefulness of a stand‐alone application of GC tests.     

‘Invisible’ constraints on 3D innovation in land administration: A case study on the city of Melbourne

Excitement about the potential of 3D technologies to support production and management of complex building information has extended to the land administration sector. Structural characteristics of high-rise buildings are compounding complexity in the design and layout of private, public and communal ownership rights, restrictions and responsibilities, leaving a legacy of ongoing management issues for urban communities. Despite the premise of 3D innovations and significant technical progress, widespread adoption remains elusive. Attention is turning to understanding the social and cultural influences – the ‘invisible’ constraints, otherwise regarded as institutional aspects, to explain deeply embedded attitudes and behaviours that are posing resistant to current change strategies. An interpretive case study in the city of Melbourne provides context for exploring institutional issues within the land administration sector regarding high-rise developments. The plan of subdivision is used to trace institutional influences, conceptualising these as regulative, normative and cultural-cognitive elements. These elements constrain stakeholders to current 2D ways of behaving, limiting movement towards 3D innovation. The findings suggest clear institutional ‘gaps’ that deliberate strategies will need to address, but also highlight the importance of understanding the interdependency between all elements for strategic response. Finally, the findings indicate that a new focal actor that is in a position to generate the required intention for change has not emerged and therefore, an industry-wide strategic response is not apparent.     

A Note: Reducing Cropland Abandonment in China – Do Agricultural Cooperatives Play a Role?

Cropland abandonment occurring both nationally and globally threatens food security and environmental sustainability. We explore whether agricultural cooperatives help reduce cropland abandonment, using data collected from 5,593 households in 229 villages in China. By estimating a two-stage residual inclusion approach, we provide evidence that the existence of agricultural cooperatives in rural villages reduces the probability of cropland abandonment and the abandonment ratio. Further analysis shows that cooperative effects on cropland abandonment and the abandonment ratio are heterogeneous across geographic locations.     

Does it Matter that we do not Agree on the Definition of Poverty? A Comparison of Four Approaches

While there is world-wide agreement on poverty reduction as an overriding goal of development policy, there is little agreement on the definition of poverty. Four approaches to the definition and measurement of poverty are reviewed in this paper: the monetary, capability, social exclusion and participatory approaches. The theoretical underpinnings of the various measures and problems of operationalizing them are pointed out. It is argued that each is a construction of reality, involving numerous judgements, which are often not transparent. The different methods have different implications for policy, and also, to the extent that they point to different people as being poor, for targeting. Empirical work in Peru and India shows that there is significant lack of overlap between the methods with, for example, nearly half the population identified as in poverty according to monetary poverty but not in capability poverty, and conversely. This confirms similar findings elsewhere. Hence, the definition of poverty does matter for poverty eradication strategies.     

Impact of the Fast Track Land Reform Programme (FTLRP) on agricultural production: A tobacco success story in Zimbabwe?

The study ascertained the impact of the Fast Track Land Reform Programme (FTLRP) in Zimbabwe on tobacco production. The Chow Test, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and the Vector Error Granger-Causality Test were applied. The results reveal that there was a structural break in tobacco sales in the year 2000. Furthermore, in the long-run, area under tobacco production had a positive impact whilst number of tobacco producers had a negative impact on tobacco sold pre-FTLRP. Post-FTLRP, area of tobacco and number of tobacco producers had negative impact. In addition, the FTLRP induced an 8.94 % increase in the speed of adjustment in correcting the long-run equilibrium in tobacco sales. In the short-run, the FTLRP caused a percentage increase in the area of tobacco production and number of tobacco producers to induce a 0.65 % and 0.76 % increase in the tobacco sales, respectively. Area of tobacco production and number of tobacco producers Granger-caused tobacco sales in the pre-FTLRP period. Post-FTLRP, the number of tobacco growers Granger-caused tobacco sales. It is concluded that the FTLRP had an impact on tobacco sales, mainly through the number of tobacco growers. The study recommends the specialisation and training of the new farmers to improve productivity.     

Do Differences in the Scale of Irrigation Projects Generate Different Impacts on Poverty and Production?

This article investigates differences in household production and consumption among small‐ and large‐scale irrigators to assess whether the scale of an irrigation project increases household welfare in Mali. Much of the evidence of the impact of irrigation does not use counterfactual analysis to estimate such impact or distinguish between the scale of the irrigation projects to be evaluated. In the dataset collected by the author, both a large‐scale irrigation project and small‐scale projects are used to construct counterfactual groups. Propensity score matching is used to estimate the average treatment effect on the treated for small and large irrigators relative to non‐irrigators on agricultural production, agricultural income and consumption per capita. Small‐scale irrigation has a larger effect on agricultural production and agricultural income than large‐scale irrigation, but large‐scale irrigation has a larger effect on consumption per capita. This suggests that market integration and non‐farm externalities are important in realising gains in agricultural surplus from irrigation.     

A recipe for success? Learning from the rapid adoption of improved chickpea varieties in Ethiopia

Many studies detail constraints deemed responsible for the limited adoption of new technologies among smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa. By contrast, here we study the conditions that led to the remarkably fast spread of improved chickpea varieties in Ethiopia. Within just seven years, the adoption rate rose from 30 to 80% of the farmers. A combination of factors explains the rapid uptake. Their attraction lay in superior returns and disease resistance. Chickpea was already an important crop for rural households in the studied districts, for both cash income and consumption. Good market access and an easy accessibility of extension services advanced the adoption process. Thus, an attractive technology suitable for rural households in a conducive environment enabled adoption. Our findings prompt us to stress the importance of tailoring agricultural innovations to the realities and demands of rural households, and the need to design and deploy interventions on the basis of ex-ante knowledge on factors potentially determining their success or failure.     

Implementation of the forest expansion policy in the Netherlands in the period 1986–2007: Decline in success?

The current study explains why Dutch forest expansion policy is at risk of failure. To study the forest expansion implementation process we have chosen to further operationalize Matland's policy type implementation model to an extended and comprehensive typology of relevant implementation characteristics. In addition, a case study methodology with mixed-method design was used to collect and analyze the data. The Dutch forest expansion policy is currently an example of symbolic implementation. The symbolic implementation is a consequence of the absence of central guidance, the legislative complexity, the low policy stability, the lack of supporting conditions for policy innovation, the lack of regulatory responsiveness and the latent policy at state level and in many provinces. Nevertheless, the transferable development rights method of the province of Limburg is a promising innovation and forest expansion still happens, which is mainly the result of a good internal and external communication, an effective actor network of forest expansion advocates and the willingness to realize negotiated project aims that lead to a win–win situation for all actors involved. Nonetheless, it is expected that the forest expansion targets will be not reached, unless most of the above shortcomings are solved.     

Is Passive Farming A Problem for Agriculture in the EU?

We address a new agricultural policy concern following the decoupling of CAP direct payments in 2005: passive farming, whereby landowners maintain their agricultural area to collect payments without producing commodities. It is claimed that passive farming is hindering agricultural development by ‘blocking’ access to farmland for expanding farmers. We evaluate the links between the EU's Single Payment Scheme (SPS), passive farming, land use and agricultural development. Following identification of the rational landowners’ optimal land‐use choice, we evaluate the effects of the SPS using a spatial, agent‐based model that simulates farmers’ competition for land in a case‐study region of Sweden. We show that passive farming does not constrain land from being used in production; on the contrary more land is used than would be the case without the SPS. We conclude that passive farming is not a problem for agriculture, but provides public goods that would otherwise be under provided: preservation of marginal farmland and future food security. However SPS payments on highly productive land inflate land values (capitalisation) and slow structural change, which hinder agricultural development. Consequently CAP goals could be better served by targeting payments on marginal land and phasing out payments to highly productive land.     

Multidimensional poverty in Afghanistan: who are the poorest of the poor?

Taking a capability approach perspective, our paper aims at advancing our understanding of poverty in Afghanistan, and at identifying the most deprived, including persons with disabilities, in order to address the first Sustainable Development Goal to eradicate poverty in all its forms. We used data from a national survey carried out in Afghanistan in 2005. We calculated one index using two weights structures, the adjusted headcount ratio, part of the multidimensional poverty measures. Following a participatory process, we identified and validated 13 indicators clustered in seven dimensions of poverty, including three usually neglected dimensions. Findings suggest that exploring various domains of deprivation would better inform poverty eradication policies than an approach focused only on income. Our results also demonstrate that nearly all Afghan adults are deprived in at least one dimension and those residing in rural areas, from minority ethnic groups, women, elderly people and persons disabled at birth or of an unknown cause are the poorest of the poor. Efforts to improve well-being must acknowledge these inequalities so that public policies in Afghanistan aiming at alleviating poverty take these disparities into account, when facing a reduction in available resources.     

Amazon forest on the edge of collapse in the Maranhão State,Brazil

The year 2019 in Brazil was marked by environmental setbacks, which catalyzed the increase of illegal deforestation and fire rates in the Brazilian Amazon. In the Amazon region of Maranhão state, original forest cover diminished from 25 % (24,700 km²) in 2016 to 24 % (23,967 km²) in 2019, and 6,038 km² of remaining forests were degraded by fires and/or illegal logging – processes related to high levels of violence against indigenous and rural communities. Almost half of all deforested areas in the region (36,060 km²) are considered a global restoration hotspot, however secondary vegetation remains unprotected and 8,294 km² were cleared between 2014 and 2018. Due to uncontrolled deforestation and fragmentation, Maranhão has no more forest core areas (outside protected areas) with the minimum size to ensure sustainable forest management practices for timber production. New policies at the state level must promote old-growth and secondary forest conservation and restoration. However, the trends point to the opposite direction: the Ecological-Economic Zoning (ZEE) allows the reduction of forest protection and the State Forest Policy reinforces federal legislation setbacks. The Amazon region of Maranhão state has forest aptitude, and forest and agroforestry product chains would bring social and environmental benefits, making them the best opportunity for sustainable economic development in the region. Therefore, the forest must be re-planted for the benefit of people and nature.     

Sustainable rural communities? A legal perspective on the community right to buy

Sustainable development is the underlying policy behind the community right to buy land in rural Scotland enshrined in the Land Reform (Scotland) Act 2003, Part 2. The Act explicitly requires communities wishing to exercise the right to buy to have sustainable development at the heart of their community body and all their plans for the land. This paper examines the role and interpretation of sustainable development in the CRB. Since the Act was passed three administrations have headed up the Scottish government and sustainable development issues and strategies for Scotland have been aired in four important and distinctive policy documents showing that it is still very much an evolving concept in Scottish politics. The current administration has adopted the most econocentric approach yet seen in the UK, focusing on sustainable economic growth. Meanwhile, the community right to buy has developed its own sustainable development agenda. This review of decisions taken under the legislation illustrates that a diverse range of community ownership plans have been deemed consistent with sustainable development, from creation of sports facilities to preservation of castles, lighthouses and village greens. A range of economic, social and environmental objectives have been approved. On the other hand, communities that fail to adopt the ‘right’ approach to the principle will not be successful in using the legislation.     

The returns to promotion of healthy choices in Tasmania: are you in the dark about the power of mushrooms?

The Australian Mushroom Growers Association (AMGA) has recently developed a revised marketing strategy to promote mushrooms using messages based on scientific findings about the nutrition and health consequences of regularly incorporating mushrooms into meals. This article evaluates impacts based on a test‐market experiment in Tasmania. We use a difference‐in‐differences econometric methodology to quantify the programme‐induced shifts in demand, and we use the resulting estimates in a supply and demand modelling framework to quantify the effects of promotion‐induced demand shifts on prices, quantities, and measures of economic well‐being. We estimate a conservative benefit–cost ratio for Tasmanian producers of 7.6:1 if they were to bear the entire cost and 11.4:1 if the programme were financed by a levy on production (or spawn). The aggregate benefit–cost ratio, including benefits to consumers is also 11.4:1.     

Can we avoid overdevelopment of river floodplains by economic policies?: A case study of the Ouse catchment (Yorkshire) in the UK

River floodplains are significant environmental resources in that they provide multiple ecosystem services. However, river floodplains are/tend to be overdeveloped because indirect-use values linked with ecosystem services are overlooked by private landowners. In a case study of the Ouse catchment, it turns out that river floodplains tend to be overdeveloped in upstream areas because of a unidirectional spatial externality. We set a simple model that considers both direct- and indirect-use values to analyse the social optimisation. The essential point is that we must consider two types of environmental externalities related to the ecosystem services of river floodplains to make decisions on floodplain development. First, the development of river floodplains has opportunity costs in terms of lost ecosystem services. Second, the development of floodplains increases flood risks to people downstream (imposes a unidirectional spatial external costs). Theoretically, we can easily deal with the problem by zonal economic policies: zonal taxes or subsidies (price policies) and zonal marketable permits or transferable development rights (quantity policies). On the practical side, however, there are so many problems. Then, such approaches are too complex to use. First of all, we have to specify real complicated economic and physical systems which show non-linearity, irreversibility, site-specific relationships, and inter-dependency between systems and sites. Secondly such policies should be ‘zonal’, which might impose substantial transaction costs. In order to apply them to real situations, we have to determine the appropriate number of zones, their sizes and geographical shapes, and then set appropriate rates or amounts of permits in each zone. Furthermore, the determination of zones is difficult because of the trade-off between the internalisation of externalities and implementation costs of policies, which are also related to political frictions and market failure.     

The impact of protected areas on the rural households’ incomes in Ethiopia

Protected areas are cornerstones for biodiversity conservation, yet they can be controversial because of their potential impact on the livelihoods of local people due to restrictions on agricultural land use and the extractive use of natural resources. This study evaluates the impact of PAs on households’ livelihoods, as measured by total household income (THI) and livestock income (LI). We use a survey and a quasi-experimental design to gather socioeconomic and biophysical data from households living within, adjacent to and outside three national parks (NPs) in Ethiopia and employ matching methods to isolate the impact of NPs. Our findings suggest that there is no evidence that the establishment of NPs adversely affects local livelihoods. Instead, we find that households within and in adjacent areas to NPs have higher incomes compared to those living outside. Understanding the heterogeneity of the effect of NPs on local livelihoods can help in designing well-targeted policy interventions that improve conservation goals while also addressing livelihood concerns of resource-dependent local communities.