International trade in air transport services: Penetration of foreign airlines into Japan under the bilateral aviation policies of the US and Japan

This study examines the impact of the bilateral aviation framework on passenger air transport service imports focusing on the US and Japan. The US promoted liberalization under its Open Skies framework from the 1980s, while Japan supported phased-in liberalization under the traditional bilateral air services framework. The numbers of US and Japanese citizens flying on foreign carriers has increased. The penetration of foreign imported air services into Japan has been significant. Regression analysis shows that Open Skies liberalization may contribute to the increased US import. Japan's relative market openness, however, makes it difficult to measure the effects of liberalization under a bilateral framework and shows the complex dynamics that may accompany Open Skies policies.     

Locational determinants of major US air passenger markets by metropolitan area

The paper examines the influence of metropolitan characteristics in determining the locations of major air traffic markets in the US. In general, the likelihood of a major air passenger market locating in any given metropolitan area is primarily determined by the metropolitan area's population size and overall propensity for air travel. The study shows that on average, a major air passenger market has over 3 million people while a minor market has a population base of about 760,000. The propensity of a population to fly is mainly a function of a number of social and economic indicators, the most important of which was found to be employment in professional–scientific–technical services and management activities.     

Debunking some common myths about airport hubs

Much of the passenger air transportation market is served through hub-and-spoke operations with traffic being funneled through a number of major airports. This system has come under attack as protective of the airlines that center their operations on large hubs and is often as result, seen as not serving the public interest. This paper looks at some of the arguments that have been laid against the hub-and-spoke system. It does not offer a balanced perspective in that there are many problems with the system that are not touched upon here, but rather it seeks to question some of the economic logic that has been used to attack the hub-and-spoke structure. While the issues extend to many air transportation markets, the focus here is primarily on the US domestic situation.PrologueThe impacts of the events of September 11, combined with the move into economic recession in the US that was already underway at that time, have led to serious financial difficulties for many of the World's airlines. Some, such as Midway in the US, immediately sought bankruptcy protection whilst others, such as Sabena and Swissair in Europe, took a little longer to fade away. Most of those that remain, despite combinations of financial assistance, have been struggling in the current economic climate.The subject addressed here is not directly concerned with this issue, although there are important overlapping longer-term linkages. Rather it looks at the structure of the airline networks that dominate the provision of air services. These structures still remain, although there are inevitable changes occurring. This paper was initially drafted prior to the recent changes that have taken place in air transportation markets. It retains much of the original material that was presented at the Amsterdam meeting, with some minor up-dating. The theme may seem less important now than at the time of the meeting, but this, I would argue, is perhaps a premature view. The combination of derived demand, relatively easy market entry, lumpiness in investments, etc., have resulted over time in dramatic changes in the fortunes of the sector and individual actors in it. There are, though, a number of recurring themes that pose interesting questions for the applied economist and one of these is the nature of efficient networks.     

Travel and tourism competitiveness index: The impact of air transportation,railways transportation,travel and transport services on international inbound and outbound tourism

The objective of the study is to examine the impact of air transportation, railways transportation, travel and transport services on international inbound and outbound tourism in a panel of 19 tourists - oriented countries, over a period of 1990–2014. By applying principal component analysis, the study constructs travel and tourism competitiveness index for inbound and outbound tourism. The main constructs of inbound tourism index include international tourists' arrival, tourism receipts, receipts of passengers' transports items and travel items while the constructs of the outbound index include international tourists' departure, tourism expenditures, and expenditures for passengers transport and travel items. The result of panel Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS) regression shows that the presence of air transportation, railways transportation, and trade openness positively affect inbound tourism index, while travel and transport services negatively affect tourism competitiveness index. The causality results confirm the bidirectional relationship between inbound tourism, air transportation, railways passengers carried, trade openness and travel and transport services, while there is a unidirectional causality running from inbound index to railway goods transported, from air transport freight to trade factor, and from travel services to air transport freight. Outbound tourism index confirmed the bidirectional causality relationship with air transportation, railways transportation, and travel and transport services, while the causality running from outbound index to trade factor, from air transport passenger carried to travel services, and from railway goods transported to trade and transport services, which support the unidirectional causality relationship between them. The variance decomposition results show that air transportation freight is the contributor that largely influences inbound-outbound tourism, while railways passengers carried and trade openness has the least share to influence inbound and outbound tourism index for the next 10-year period. The impulse response function indicates that air transportation, railways transportation, trade openness and travel services will positively impact on inbound truism while travel and transport services will positively affect outbound tourism for the next 10-year period. The study concludes with the importance of transportation sector that deem desirable to promote tourism worldwide. The concentration of different modes of transportation including air transportation, railways transportation, and travel and transport system would helpful to advance international tourism.     

Issues on liberalization of air cargo services in international aviation

This paper provides a general discussion of various issues related to the liberalization of air cargo services in international aviation. It shows that all-cargo carriers may have different routing needs than passenger carriers and thus require different sets of air traffic rights from those needed by passenger carriers. On the other hand, separation of air cargo and passenger rights will be fraught with difficulty in Asia because of distinctive characteristics of its air cargo market, where most passenger carriers have substantial cargo business and operate “combi” fleets. Customs and inter-modal transportation are also discussed in the context of cargo liberalization.     

Liquidity risk premium and asset pricing in US water transportation

The water transportation of freight has been one of the most important sectors in facilitating international trade and contributing to the growth of the world economy. Bearing in mind the importance of the relation between asset returns and liquidity in water transportation, this paper examines this relation within the context of US traded international water freight transportation firms. Using a Fama–MacBeth analysis, it is shown that the illiquidity risk premium is priced in the water transportation sector beyond the Fama and French and market-wide illiquidity risk factors, indicating higher average returns for stocks with greater illiquidity measures. It is also shown that the market-wide illiquidity factor and the Fama–French SMB and HML risk factors are significant in explaining stock returns. In contrast, market risk is found not to be priced in the water transportation sector. The results are also robust to asset pricing tests over two alternative sub-periods.     

The Northeast Asian air transport network: is there a possibility of creating Open Skies in the region?

Unlike in the US and the European Union aviation markets, the Northeast Asian markets are still very fragmented. As a result, the passenger and air freight collection/distribution systems in the region are very inefficiently organized. The primary reason for the inefficient and inconvenient air carrier networks in the region is the restrictive bilateral air services agreements between Asian countries. This paper documents the nature and extent of the restrictive bilateral agreements among China, Japan and Korea, evaluates several bilateral or trilateral approaches for liberalizing the regional air transport markets, and makes a proposal which would increase substantially the probability of achieving an Open Skies market in the region. In particular, the current approach to liberalize the bilateral air services agreements among China, Korea and Japan has limitations even in the medium term because of China's and, to a less extent, Japan's reluctance to remove price and capacity restrictions. Therefore, as an institutional solution we propose to create bi-national (for bilateral negotiations) or tri-national (for trilateral negotiations) ‘Trade and Transport Facilitation Committees’, that can pursue a practical avenue to tie air transport negotiations with those of other goods and services trade.     

A cointegration analysis of bilateral air travel flows: The case of international travel to and from the United States

Demand for international air travel has risen over the past decade causing international visitation to the US to reach a record high in 2012. This paper assesses the dynamic impacts of GDP, exchange rate, and the 9/11 terrorist attacks on bilateral air travel flows between the US and its 11 major travel and trading partners. An autoregressive distributed lag modeling approach is employed to estimate short- and long-run relationships between variables. Long-run results demonstrate foreign GDP as the major determinant of demand for inbound travel to the US and US GDP is a crucial factor affecting demand for outbound travel from the US. These findings support a strong linkage between economic growth and demand for international air travel. The real exchange rate has relatively little impact on the bilateral air travel flows. The US dollar appreciation against foreign currencies is found to reduce demand for inbound travel to the US, while having mixed effects on outbound travel from the US. In the short-run, economic growth tends to be a primary factor influencing international travel flows to and from the US. The 9/11 market shock has a detrimental short- and long-run effect on the bilateral air travel flows, implying that the impact of 9/11 is prolonged in international air travel markets.     

The potential impacts of the EU/US Open Sky Agreement: What will happen at Heathrow after spring 2008

The paper examines the impact of removing the restrictions remaining in EU/US bilateral air service agreements, the major one relating to the air services between the US and the UK. These are dismantled under Stage I of the EU/US Open Skies agreement, which will automatically fall unless progress is made on the Stage II issues, especially reform of the US ownership and control rules. Previous evaluations of the likely impact of lifting these restrictions are reviewed, especially in relation to passengers and fares between the US and London. Such evaluations look optimistic given preliminary plans for the first summer season. Reasons why airlines prefer Heathrow to Gatwick are discussed before comparing US/London air service capacity for June 2008 with the previous June, with indications for a 5% increase in overall seat capacity and an 8% increase in flights. A net increase of seven daily flights is planned from Heathrow and Gatwick, not far in excess of normal market growth and no new non-stop routes will be introduced that had not already been operated from either UK airport. These changes are analysed in terms of US and UK airline responses, taking into account slot availability and cost. The seat capacity share of US carriers from both Heathrow and Gatwick advances by just over 2 percentage points to 40%.     

The impact of US–EU “Open Skies” agreement on airline market structures and airline networks

The gradual liberalization of international air transport has largely benefited the traveling public. Progress since the development of concepts such as “Open Skies” in the late 1970s as an alternative to the restrictive bilateral air service agreements that had effectively controlled most international air transport since the mid-1940s has been uneven and spasmodic. The recent move to open the North Atlantic more fully to competition has proved a particularly challenging task, and the agreement between the US and the European Union is still both partial and conditional. This paper offers an overview of the economics of the situation and provides insights into the reasons why it has developed in the way it has, the outcomes that we may expect from it, and some consideration of the wider, non-commercial, impacts that it may have.     

An empirical analysis of Canadian international air policy: effects of dual carrier designation and partial liberalization

This paper assesses the impact on air traffic of Canada's policy of allowing two Canadian flag carriers (dual-designation) to operate in select Canadian international markets. The secondary objective is to assess the effect of Canada's partially liberalized bilateral air services agreements. Using panel data covering Canada's 33 bilateral markets over the 1982–1994 period, we find the following results: (a) dual designation/operation of Canadian carriers in a country-pair market increases total traffic volumes in the market as well as increases the combined passenger volume and market share of Canadian carriers, and (b) Canada's partially liberalized bilateral air services agreements have significantly increased air traffic in those country-pair markets.Two policy implications follow from this research. First, Air Canada's recent merger with Canadian Airlines is expected to have a significant negative impact on total traffic volumes as well as on Canadian carrier traffic volumes and market shares on the country-pair markets both Air Canada and Canadian served previously. Second, not only the US style full liberal bilaterals or open skies, but also partial liberalization of bilateral markets Canada adopted appears to generate consumer welfare benefits.     

EU/US Open Skies – Competition and change in the world aviation market: The implications for the Irish aviation market

The EU/US Open Skies agreement became operational on March 29th, 2008. The 23% increase in flights between Ireland and the US in 2008 under the agreement is the highest expected increase under the agreement and is almost three times greater than the expected overall increase in air travel between the EU and the US. Open Skies increases the number of routes between Ireland and the US by 3 to 10 and allows airlines to fly directly to and from Dublin without a compulsory stop at Shannon. There are very strong economic, investment, visitor, political and ethnic ties between Ireland and the US and air travel between the countries per head of population in Ireland is 5.6 times greater than the EU average. The benefits from Open Skies include lower fares, new routes and direct services reducing the need to backtrack over European hubs, in addition to the abolition of the requirement to stopover at Shannon.     

High-technology employment and hub airports

Deregulation of the US domestic air transport market in 1978 brought significant benefits to air travelers. The scheduled airlines have been given the freedom to improve their efficiency through being able to adopt efficient network strategies and more effective operating practices. This study examines empirically the advantages enjoyed by those passengers having access to a major hub airport. These often include more direct services, more frequent services and a wider range of interconnecting destinations. We seek to examine the benefits that local urban areas enjoy as the result of a major airline selecting the region as the fulcrum point for its hub-and-spoke services.     

Impacts of videoconferencing on business travel: the Norwegian experience

This paper assesses the impact of videoconferencing on business air travel. Results suggest that videoconferencing has only a limited effect on business air travel, with substitution rates of 2.5–3.5%. Thus, within the Norwegian market, videoconferencing is not considered a serious threat to the airline industry. The enterprises considered in this survey indicate low sensitivity to the threat of terror and the instability that has followed September 11 in the US. In Norway, air travel recovered after 4–5 months. Videoconferencing is expected to grow but remain supplementary to personal contact.     

NAFTA and Canada–US cross-border freight transportation

This paper explores the transportation related impacts of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The specific area of concern is with the supply and demand for trucking services in the Canada–US cross-border market. The US represents the largest export market for Canada and in terms of the value of goods shipped, the trucking industry is the dominant mode of transport. On the supply side, changes in industry structure within this market and regulatory measures are reviewed. The changes in demand patterns involving the Province of Ontario are analyzed, employing origin-destination shipment data collected by Statistics Canada. Ontario is the industrial centre of Canada and the impacts of the NAFTA are expected to be greatest in this particular region. Understanding the consequences of this trade agreement are important for guiding future transportation related policies initiatives which affect the growing Canada–US cross-border market.     

A Cournot model for analysing the effects of an open skies agreement

In the last decades there has been a gradual liberalisation of international air transport markets through the implementation of open skies agreements which seek the deregulation of the air transport industry and consequently the functioning of the market in a freer way. The objective of this work is to study the effects of an open skies agreement in order to understand if the airlines and the consumers will benefit after the market deregulation. With this purpose, we develop a Cournot model to compare the initial situation (without agreement) and the situation after the implementation of the open skies agreement.Based on the model developed we conclude that after market liberalisation the prices on international market segments where competition increases should decline, thus benefiting consumers. Regarding the incumbent airlines in the market, an open skies agreement should jeopardize the airlines that fail to operate new routes, leading to decreased profits.     

Analyzing air cargo flows of international routes: an empirical study of Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport

Air cargo demand is an important aspect of the operation and planning of private and public agencies responsible for airports. While most existing studies in this field include only geo-economic characteristics of airports and their hinterlands as explanatory variables, this study develops a gravity model of air cargo flows by trying to incorporate more factors that might influence international air cargo flows of an airport. The model is developed based on the panel data of air cargo services on scheduled routes at Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport during the years 2004-2007. The results indicate that population, air freight rate and three dummy variables, including the regional economic bloc of the “Chinese Circle”(an informal partnership between Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and mainland China), the Open Sky Agreements and long established colonial links, are key determinants of international air cargo flows from/to Taiwan. These results suggest a wider array of factors needs to be considered in policy.     

The logistics of air cargo co-mingling at Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport

This paper discusses the current efforts to bring further deregulation to international air cargo operations. This is done in the context of a special set of operations, known as co-mingling, which is allowed at Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport. Co-mingling involves air cargo being transferred to another airplane that may or may not be in the initiating carrier's fleet. After the transfer is completed the cargo proceeds based on the second plane's pre-determined routing. This paper sets co-mingling in context with co-terminalization and cabotage operations by outlining the limitations of what the United States Department of Transportation actually mandated. While the operations are unique to the State of Alaska they do set a precedent for unilateral reform of international air cargo operations on the part of the US government. An economic appraisal of co-mingling operations is provided and is shown to be a source of efficiency gains for the US air cargo market.     

Competition and cooperation between high-speed rail and air transportation services in Europe

New high-speed rail (HSR) lines may have an enormous influence on the provision of air services. The attention has been devoted to competition between both transportation modes but in some cases HSR services may also have an intermodal complementary role with air transportation. By taking a supply oriented empirical analysis, we study the impact of HSR on air service frequencies and seats offered by airlines in large European countries. We emphasize the distinction between routes with and without a hub airport as an endpoint and we also examine the influence of the location of the HSR station. We generally find direct competition between HSR and airlines, but we also provide some evidence that HSR can provide feeding services to long haul air services in hub airports, particularly in hub airports with HRS stations.     

The impact of Air Service Agreement liberalisation: The case of Nigeria

The positive impact of air transport liberalisation as suggested by economic theories and empirical studies has inspired many developing countries like Nigeria to liberalise some of its Air Service Agreements (ASAs). This paper seeks to examine the extent to which international air service liberalisation has impacted upon Nigeria ten years after it was introduced. The research developed a cross-sectional model with passenger traffic as the dependent variable, while macroeconomic factors (trade and GDP), historical links, distance and ASAs (a proxy for liberalisation) served as independent or predictor variables. The analysis revealed a set of ASA stages in the country's policy-making process (restricted Bilateral Air Service Agreement, Open Skies Agreement and Yamoussoukro Declaration). Further analysis showed that the predictor variables were all significant in explaining passenger demand. The model demonstrated that the liberalisation of market access to the Open Skies Agreement level could stimulate traffic growth by at least 65 percent. The findings can assist in guiding policy and industry stakeholders in future decisions relating to liberalisation and ASAs.