A new look at the impact of U.S. import barriers on corporate profit expectations

A New Look at the Impact of U.S. Import Barriers on Corporate Profit Expectations. — The notion that industries benefit from protection is firmly grounded in trade theory. However, previous “event studies” measuring the impact of trade restrictions on stock prices reveal that shareholders expect no improvement in industry profits from protection. The implication is that barriers designed to promote industry adjustment are considered ineffective by equity holders. This investigation of U.S. “Escape Clause” cases shows that shareholders do expect protection to enhance profits, but not universally. Outcomes are linked to the type of trade measure selected, with industries protected by tariffs or global quotas faring better than those shielded by nonglobal “Orderly Marketing Agreements.”     

Public Procurement and Foreign Direct Investment Across France,Germany, Italy and the UK

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has become an important factor of economic development during the last decades. FDI contributes to the economic growth of the host economy through learning, diffusion of technology, positive externalities and capital inflows. Attracting FDI is currently an objective in its own right for many countries and this paper aims to identify policies affecting the multinational firm’s decision to establish a subsidiary. After accounting for labour productivity and trade openness, cross-section analysis, both industry-wise and country-wise, indicates that public procurement, especially “buy national” policies, and agglomeration economies are statistically significant determinants of FDI. Although our findings pertain to four large European economies, e.g. France, Germany, Italy and the UK, they constitute relevant policy guidelines for developing countries as well.      

Economic and social conditions of blacks in New York during reconstruction

Summary At a time when, despite Affirmative Action Goals, we still have great difficulty in making employers accountable before the law for overt acts of discrimination, it is well to recall the doughty struggle of the state’s Blacks versus employers. At a time when health services for inner-city residents continue to be worse than provisions for other citizens, it is well to remember that even in the last century “the conditions of sickness and mortality” were “not the same for the white and for the colored races,” and destitution among Blacks in New York City accounted for some 37 percent of the illnesses among Blacks in that area. At a time when realtors and boards of education still effectively put up barriers to ordinary social relations between whites and Blacks it is well to remember that even after the passage of the Fourteenth Amendment Blacks were powerless to cause any major breach in public constraints to their mobility. Blacks have been powerless for a long time to make legislated freedom subserve their economic and social goals, and this is an important reminder to those who would reapply the methods of the past in attempts to fulfill today the normal economic expectations of citizens of the Republic.     

Hub-and-Spokes Free Trade Agreements in the Presence of Technology Spillovers: An Application to the Western Hemisphere

Using a comparative-static general equilibrium model in the context of the Western Hemisphere, this paper compares the economic effects of a “hub-and-spokes” type of bilateral trade configuration (with Chile being the hub) with those of a more comprehensive regional FTA (namely, the FTAA). The model is augmented to account for the possibility of technology spillovers and its effective assimilation among participating economies. In particular, absorptive capacity, governance factor, proximity and socio-institutional congruence conjointly determine an economy’s capacity to capture the technology that is transmitted from the developed spoke United States to other regions. JEL no. D58, F13, O33     

Public Spending Management and Macroeconomic Interdependence

This paper studies the domestic and international effects of “public competition policies” aimed at improving the efficiency of public spending. Such measures are modeled as an increase in the price elasticity of public consumption. The paper finds that public competition policies significantly affect macroeconomic interdependence across countries, both through the impact of the international elasticity of substitution and of mark-up effects. The paper also develops an extension in which fiscal shocks are stochastic. In welfare terms, countries with a larger government sector have an incentive to promote global public competition policies regardless of whether fiscal policy is modeled as deterministic or stochastic.

Using home-biased demand to test trade theories

Using Home-Biased Demand to Test Trade Theories. — This paper proposes a discriminating hypothesis that distinguishes between two paradigms of international trade: (1) constant returns and perfect competition (CRS-PC) and (2) increasing returns and monopolistic competition (IRS-MC). The discriminating hypothesis rests on the different degree of home bias among “consumers.” It predicts a positive relationship between a country’s share in world output and a country’s share in the world home-biased expenditure if the sector is IRS-MC and no relationship if the sector is CRS-PC. Accordingly, 7 sectors (covering 54.86 per cent of industrial output) of the eight countries under investigation were associated with the IRS-MC and 10 sectors (41.15 per cent) with the CRS-PC paradigm.     

Some problems of Russia’s railway infrastructure

This paper provides a brief analysis of the state and development prospects of the railway infrastructure. Particular attention is paid to the study of the system capacity, bottlenecks in railway systems, their causes, and failure resilience. We analyze the main provisions of the “Development Strategy of Rail Transport in the Russian Federation until 2030.” The author presents his views concerning the possibilities to satisfy the demand for rail freight.     

Performing New Orleans: Toward a Political Poetics

This essay documents an embodied model for doing scholarship in and about post-Katrina New Orleans. It suggests lived experience as human capital that provides a public good for rebuilding communities. Specifically, a research-based performance (“Performance and New Orleans: Citizenship, Identity and Housing”) serves as a case study for situating scholarship between theory and practice as a “political poetics.” The essay draws on performance theory and the values of public scholarship to negotiate the challenges of authenticity and motive that confront scholars working in New Orleans. The essay also argues for performance as a means of reaffirming human value and exposing the complexity that surrounds the problems of African American citizenship, identity, and housing in New Orleans 5 years after the storm.     

Rhonda M. Williams: Competition, race, agency, and community

As the United States approaches the twenty-first century… in an information-based, transnational and managerial economy, it is becoming increasingly apparent that if we do not better negotiate race and ethnicity in our society, we will not adequately solve the problems of economic inequality and discrimination. Racial and/or ethnic divisions and competition shape our efforts to understand and challenge hierarchy and inequity. As long as we ignore those issues, we cannot solve the problems of poverty, unemployment, and crime, nor effect productive job creation and economic justice. Absent a cultural and economic reckoning with racism’s legacies, we will fail to revitalize our cities and to recover from the socioeconomic costs of “ending welfare as we knew it.” Although masked behind pronouncements of a “color-blind” society, unfinished racial business weakens our national will to provide one another the portfolio of social and economic rights essential to the sustenance of humane community in the post-industrial global economy. (Nembhard and Williams 1998).     

Cognitive skills, test scores, and social stratification: The role of family and school-level resources on racial/ethnic differences in scores on standardized tests (AFQT)

Conclusion  In this paper I ahve shown that scores on the AFQT are a function of family and school level material resources and investments on individual development. The AFQT is not a measure of “intelligence (IQ),” “ability,” or “cognitive skills.” The AFQT is in large part a measure of access to material resources, social investments, and exposure to the values, experiences, and networks of the white upper middle class.     

Ex ante purchasing power parity: An empirical note

Conclusions In the paper, the EAPPP theory was discussed and three different tests with increasingly statistic power were proposed and implemented. The results are mixed, since the theory passed the randomness and orthogonality tests, but not the direct regression test. The impression is that EAPPP seems to hold in a weak sense, since the evidence confirms random movements of real exchange rates and an efficient use of information by agents but not the constraints on (14) postulated by EAPPP. In general, the results of the present study are in accordance with those of Cumby and Obstfeld [1984], Mishkin [1984], MacDonald [1985] and Gaab et al. [1986] who found only weak support to the EAPPP theory. Furthermore, in the case of the dollar-lira exchange rate, our findings are different from those of Tronzano [1987] according to which “although PPP holds very badly in its traditional (absolute or relative formulation), ex ante PPP (both in “weak” and in “strong” version) [is] highly supported by data”. In fact, in our case both the second orthogonality test and the regression test are unfavourable to the EAPPP.     

The Economic Effect Of Competition Law Enforcement: The Case Of The Netherlands

Summary  In this paper we try to bridge the gap between the outcome ambitions of competition policy in terms of welfare gains and consumer surplus and the longer term effects of competition policy on growth and employment. First of all, an overview is given of the different definitions of welfare. We explain why maximising the consumer surplus is an important part of the mission statement for most competition authorities. In the second part of the paper we estimate the impact of the introduction of the competition law on economic development. The effects of antitrust policies, merger control and energy regulation on the consumer surplus appear substantial. This increase in consumer surplus can be interpreted as a cut in the “market power wedge” which, from a modelling point of view, is comparable to a cut in the tax wedge. A model simulation for the Netherlands shows that the economy responded positively to this increase in the consumer surplus. We find that production has grown by an extra 0.5% and that employment has increased by 0.4% as a result of the enforcement of the Competition Law. The authors are respectively Chief Economist of the NMa and senior advisor at the Office of the Chief Economist of the NMa. This paper is the background paper for the presentation with the same title at the conference “Measuring the Economic Effects of Competition Law Enforcement”, held in The Hague, 17 and 18 October 2007. The authors would like to thank two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions.     

Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes? or Measuring and Evaluating the Effectiveness of Competition Enforcement

Summary  This article surveys, discusses and classifies methods for ex-post evaluation of the efficiency of competition authorities: court appeals, peer reviews, case studies, event studies, (authorities’ own) bottom-up calculations of consumer gains, deadweight-loss estimates, cross-country panel studies etc. Based on empirical estimates from other types of studies and on a simple oligopoly model, one conclusion is that many bottom-up calculations are based on exaggerated estimates of gains from cartel enforcement, relative to those from merger enforcement. Another conclusion is that authorities’ ex-post self evaluations are of limited value, relative to external evaluations. “Who watches the guardians?”, by Juvenal, 2nd century Roman poet and critic.     

The Link Between CEO Compensation and Firm Performance: Does Simultaneity Matter?

In order to combat the principle-agent problem, directors of public companies use incentive-based contracts to align the interests of CEOs and shareholders. Some studies suggest that these contracts are an inefficient use of resources, and that they do not motivate CEOs to do what is best for the firm. In this study, the author estimates a regression to find the relationship between CEO Compensation and market value of a firm. In order to address persistence, endogeneity and firm-specific effects the author uses the first-differenced and system GMM regression techniques first used by [Arellano, M.; Bover, O. “Another Look at the Instrumental-Variable Estimation of Error-Component Models,” Journal of Econometrics, 68, 1995, pp. 29–51] and [Blundell, R. W.; Bonds, S. R. “Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models,” Journal of Econometrics, 87, 1998, pp. 115–43; Blundell, R. W.; Bond, S. R., Windmeijer, F. “Estimation in Dynamic Panel Data Models: Improving on the Performance of the Standard GMM Estimators,” Institute for Fiscal Studies Working Paper W00/12, London, England, 2000]. These regressions report a positive relationship between CEO compensation and market value of a firm. This study concludes that incentive based contracts are effective, due to the positive pay-to-performance link, when controlling for simultaneity. First place winner of the Undergraduate Best Paper Award Competition at the 60th International Atlantic Economic Conference in New York, NY, October 6–9, 2005.     

Racial differences in consumer expenditure patterns, 1972–73

Summary and Conclusion In this paper, we have endeavored to analyze black-non-black differences in expenditure patterns as revealed by the 1972–73 BLS Consumer Expenditure Interview Survey Summary. Specific data shortcomings have been noted above. In addition, however, possible black-non-black differences in the propensity to misreport or withhold information may have affected the reliability of our findings. With these limitations in mind, the evidence of the survey data points to a main conclusion, namely, that although the “average” black consumer unit tended to spend a larger proportion of its after-tax income than the “average” non-black unit-just as the well-known stereotype implies-the statistical model underlying our analysis suggests that black consumer units with the same “characteristics” (after-tax income, family size, regional location, as well as the same age, education, and retired-nonretired status of family head) as the average non-black units tended to spend a smaller-not larger-proportion of their income than did the “comparable” non-black units. In addition, the model suggests that if Blacks maintained their own average characteristics but had the same “consumer behavior” as non-blacks, their APSp would rise substantially.     

Entrepreneurship and intra-industry trade

Entrepreneurship and Intra-Industry Trade. — The paper introduces entrepreneurs into the theories of intra-industry trade and investigates the role of a country ’s “entrepreneurship” in international trade. It is shown that therelative entrepreneurship between countries determines the terms of trade but the welfare effects are not obvious. Among other things, it is found that (1) an increase in exports improves the terms of trade and (2) an increase in country size is not always beneficial.     

Aid and Public Finance: A Missing Link?

The present consensus in the literature is that foreign aid does not have the desired positive effects on economic development. This is due in great part to poorly performing public institutions in recipient countries. In order to understand better the causes of this undesirable phenomenon, we examine the relationship between multilateral foreign aid flows and recipient countries’ public finance systems. We construct a new indicator to assess the quality of public finance, the Public Finance Institutions Quality (PFIQ) Index. For our panel of 86 countries, we find that multilateral aid flows have a negative impact on recipient country PFIQ score, whereas exogenous improvements in public finance seem to attract more aid. These results provide insight into the “black box” of governance: failure to turn aid receipts into desired results seems partly attributable to multilateral aid, in its present form, not being suited to improving a country’s public finance institutions. However, international donor organisations do seem to reward exogenous improvements in quality and reliability of public finance systems.     

Big philanthropy and the funding of black organizations

Conclusion The general overview of foundation giving to promote black interests and the specific look at the Ford-MARC relationship support the notion that few foundation grants will go to “controversial” or “political” projects. The Peterson Commission estimated that only three percent of all private foundation grants are “innovative” and an even smaller percentage are “politically controversial.” Most often, these projects usually become controversial after the grant is made. A 1971 Urban League study revealed that grants for human services made by private foundations to black and Spanish-speaking communities were disproportionately low when measured in terms of the per capita needs of the minority population. Nevertheless, it is unrealistic to expect Ford, Rockefeller Brothers, Mott, or Carnegie to redistribute income or become the “cutting edge of social change”.     

Featherbedding—An easy second best problem

Conclusions The difficulties of second best, as propounded by Lipsey and Lancaster and reasserted by Allingham and Archibald, derive from the allegation that associated with second best optima are necessary conditions that require the violation of necessary first best conditions and which cannot be satisfied by known market forms or decentralized management rules. Specifically, it is alleged that for second best no “solutions” analogous to perfect competition and marginal cost pricing exist. In this paper it has been demonstrated that second best difficulties are not quite as universal as Allingham and Archibald suppose. We have seen that featherbedding contracts give rise to genuine second best situations but that the associated problems are easily solved. If a production unit grants a featherbedding contract but otherwise acts as a price taking profit maximizer, in terms of Paretian criteria (assuming no difficulties at the second order level) no policy action is called for unless society is willing to outlaw the featherbedding contract. Otherwise, the appropriate management rule is simply “behave as a price taking profit maximizer” where this behavior is clearly specified in (28) above and analogous to marginal cost pricing in the first best case.     

Global Public Finance and Funding the Millennium Development Goals

Summary The members of the United Nations have agreed to the Millennium Development Goals, but there remains a major challenge of funding these ambitions. This paper examines alternative sources of development funding: global taxes, new Special Drawing Rights, the International Finance Facility, a global lottery, and increased private transfers. The paper suggests that “global public finance” can contribute to the public debate about these alternatives. It indicates how progress can be made without unanimity, that subsidiarity can increase national acceptance, and draws attention to the implications of the changing world distribution of income.Based on the Fourth Jelle Zijlstra Lecture given at the Free University, Amsterdam, on 12 December 2005. I am most grateful to Antony Burgmans, the discussant, and other members of the audience, for their comments.