基于Monte Carlo模拟的财务管理创新

通常人们是以确定性的视角来研究财务管理，但是由于科学技术的发展以及市场与金融环境的变化，财务管理中出现了大量的不确定性问题，此时往往采用期望值分析方法，但这样会丢弃许多有用的信息，容易对决策者产生误导。本文采用Monte Carlo模拟不确定环境下的财务管理问题，提供有关目标函数的概率分布规律，以新的视角分析不确定环境的财务管理决策问题，对财务管理创新具有一定的借鉴意义。     

An alternative direct proof of Gibbard’s random dictatorship theorem

We present an alternative proof of the Gibbards random dictatorship theorem with ex post Pareto optimality. Gibbard(1977) showed that when the number of alternatives is finite and larger than two, and individual preferences are linear (strict), a strategy-proof decision scheme (a probabilistic analogue of a social choice function or a voting rule) is a convex combination of decision schemes which are, in his terms, either unilateral or duple. As a corollary of this theorem (credited to H. Sonnenschein) he showed that a decision scheme which is strategy-proof and satisfies ex post Pareto optimality is randomly dictatorial. We call this corollary the Gibbards random dictatorship theorem. We present a proof of this theorem which is direct and follows closely the original Gibbards approach. Focusing attention to the case with ex post Pareto optimality our proof is more simple and intuitive than the original Gibbards proof.Received: 15 October 2001, Accepted: 23 May 2003, JEL Classification: D71, D72Yasuhito Tanaka: The author is grateful to an anonymous referee and the Associate editor of this journal for very helpful comments and suggestions. And this research has been supported by a grant from the Zengin Foundation for Studies on Economics and Finance in Japan.     

基于Monte Carlo模拟的无形资产风险投资评价

无形资产风险投资评价是财务管理的难题之一，其关键是合理、准确地估计无形资产产生的现金流量。由于无形资产产生的现金流量往往具有高度的不确定性，通常采用现金流量的期望值替代，但这样会失去许多有用的信息，容易误导投资者。本文采用Montecado模拟不确定环境下的现金流量，该方法对无形资产风险投资评价具有一定的借鉴意义。     

Afriat’s Theorem and Samuelson’s ‘Eternal Darkness’

Suppose that we have access to a finite set of expenditure data drawn from an individual consumer, i.e., how much of each good has been purchased and at what prices. Afriat (1967) was the first to establish necessary and sufficient conditions on such a data set for rationalizability by utility maximization. In this note, we provide a new and simple proof of Afriat’s Theorem, the explicit steps of which help to more deeply understand the driving force behind one of the more curious features of the result itself, namely that a concave rationalization is without loss of generality in a classical finite data setting. Our proof stresses the importance of the non-uniqueness of a utility representation along with the finiteness of the data set in ensuring the existence of a concave utility function that rationalizes the data.     

应用Monte Carlo模拟的模糊DEA方法研究

提出了一种模糊DEA求解及排序的完整解决方案,其基本思想是:将α截集转化为线性变量,通过求解,不仅能得到目标函数的乐观及悲观状态下的极值,而且还能得到各变量最适宜的α值,然后引入Monte Carlo模拟方法进行排序。通过算例说明该方法的有效性。     

基于Monte Carlo方法的光学分子散射研究

综述了分子影像中的各种方法,特别针对光学分子成像技术结合生物组织的混浊介质实例介绍了Monte Carlo方法及其模拟传播流程。目前在非接触式光学断层成像的MC方法研究有生物组织中光传输模型和自由空间光传输模型两种方向,分别介绍了其在本领域的研究现状。由此可知MC方法对活体组织安全快速的无损检测有重要作用。     

Monte Carlo仿真分析在财务决策中的应用

本文以Monte Carlo仿真为手段，以Excel VBA为计算平台，通过构建财务模型，对财务决策过程中的不确定性问题进行风险仿真分析，弥补了传统决策手段的不足，以期为企业财务决策提供参考。     

Monte Carlo模拟之于管理贷款组合信用风险的现实意义

美国次级债由于房贷的信用风险引起金融危机。本文借助于统计分析软件SAS和CreditMetrics模型的蒙特卡罗模拟,计算贷款组合风险价值。首先,运用CreditMetrics模型和信用等级转移矩阵、累积违约概率数据以及回收率1年期零息曲线折现率计算银行贷款组合中的每笔贷款的远期价值、违约概率、风险价值;其次,计算贷款企业的股票收益率之间的相关系数矩阵;最后,运用蒙特卡罗方法得出贷款组合的风险价值,即银行对发放的贷款所可能承担的损失,也就是信用风险价值。     

基于Monte Carlo模拟的生物制药项目实物期权价值评估

本文针对生物制药项目的特点及传统NPV法的不足,介绍了一种易于实际投资分析使用的实物期权评估模型。该模型借鉴Boeing公司用于研发项目实物期权价值评估的D-M方法,在Monte Carlo模拟的基础上计算项目市场阶段的实物期权价值,再利用决策树模型向前递推得到项目价值。     

Monte Carlo模拟方法在高速公路项目价值评估中的应用

运用传统NPV法不能充分发掘高速公路建设项目未来现金流的不确定性所包含的潜在价值。本文采用Monte Carlo方法模拟未来交通量,并将对偶变量方差缩减技术运用于模拟试验中,在此模拟的基础上计算项目未来现金流量,从而求得项目的实际价值,得出Monce Carlo模拟方法更能体现项目真实价值的结论。     

Mostly harmless simulations? Using Monte Carlo studies for estimator selection

We consider two recent suggestions for how to perform an empirically motivated Monte Carlo study to help select a treatment effect estimator under unconfoundedness. We show theoretically that neither is likely to be informative except under restrictive conditions that are unlikely to be satisfied in many contexts. To test empirical relevance, we also apply the approaches to a real‐world setting where estimator performance is known. Both approaches are worse than random at selecting estimators that minimize absolute bias. They are better when selecting estimators that minimize mean squared error. However, using a simple bootstrap is at least as good and often better. For now, researchers would be best advised to use a range of estimators and compare estimates for robustness.     

Monte Carlo模拟方法在高速公路项目价值评估中的应用

运用传统NPV法不能充分发掘高速公路建设项目未来现金流的不确定性所包含的潜在价值。本文采用Monte Carlo方法模拟未来交通量,并将对偶变量方差缩减技术运用于模拟试验中,在此模拟的基础上计算项目未来现金流量,从而求得项目的实际价值,得出Monte Carlo模拟方法更能体现项目真实价值的结论。     

Macroeconomic factors and firm’s cross-border merger and acquisitions

This study investigates the impact of macroeconomic variables on the wealth effects of cross-border acquisitions by Malaysian multinational companies. The sample consists of 159 cross-border acquisitions by Malaysian MNCs bidding in 22 countries around the world from 2000 to 2007. The macroeconomic variables examined in this study are foreign economic condition, GNP correlation between countries, and level of economic development of target country. The findings indicate that, foreign economic condition affects the wealth effect negatively, while the level of economic development of target country affects the wealth effect positively. Aside from the macroeconomic variables, we also find that English or non-English language, government’s rules index and the telecommunication infrastructure all play certain roles in the Malaysian cross-border acquisitions. Implied from this study is that, value creation of the Malaysian cross-border acquisitions is a function of the foreign economic condition and the level of economic development of the target foreign country.     

An application of Stein’s method to limit theorems for pairwise negative quadrant dependent random variables

Stein’s method is used to derive an error in normal approximation for sums of pairwise negative quadrant dependent random variables, but under the assumption of second moment only. This allows us to derive a central limit theorem for pairwise negative quadrant dependent random variables with Lindeberg’s condition. Research supported by Science Foundation of Zhejiang Provincial Education(no. 20060122)     

依次检验策略中检验功效的Monte Carlo模拟及策略改进

依次检验策略是实施单位根检验的重要途径,但该策略并没有考虑低检验功效的影响。本文通过Monte Carlo实验,模拟了依次检验策略中的检验功效,发现在样本容量较小的情况下,该检验具有很低的检验功效。另外,本文从理论上分析了产生低功效的原因,并对该策略提出了改进。最后,采用改进后的检验策略,通过对上证综合指数序列的单位根检验验证了改进后策略的有效性。     

Efficient Monte Carlo pricing of European options¶using mean value control variates

We describe in this paper a variance reduction method based on control variates. The technique uses the fact that, if all stochastic assets but one are replaced in the payoff function by their mean, the resulting integral can most often be evaluated in closed form. We exploit this idea by applying the univariate payoff as control variate and develop a general Monte Carlo procedure, called Mean Monte Carlo (MMC). The method is then tested on a variety of multifactor options and compared to other Monte Carlo approaches or numerical techniques. The method is of easy and broad applicability and gives good results especially for low to medium dimension and in high volatility environments.     

Modeling and simulation of the quality’s entropy

The aim of the present study is to define quality entropy as well as to illustrate some of its properties. The simulation of the mathematical model for quality entropy shall be performed by means of specialized software for mathematical problem simulation, such as Microsoft Excel that we have employed for this particular study. Our aim is to prove that quality entropy may be expanded to the notions of Markov source of quality and Bernoulli source of quality, by analogy with the Markov and Bernoulli sources employed in information theory. Likewise, the present study delineates some aspects regarding tolerance to quality entropy. The subject of entropy and its application of the management of quality has been approached by other authors as well (Dinu and Vod?, Revista Calitatea-acces la succes, anul 8(4): 60–61, 2007; Dinu, Revista Calitatea-acces la succes, anul 8(5): 62–63, 2007; Georgescu-Roegen, Legea Entropiei ?i Procesul Economic, 1979; Stamatiu, Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Quality, Reability and Maintainabilty, 2000; Stamatiu, Proceeding of the 18th International Conference on Quality, Reliability and Maintainability, 2002). Through our transdisciplinary approach, we would like to contribute to the development of this subject.     

Cyclically monotone equilibrium problems and Ekeland’s principle

We study the existence of equilibria and approximate equilibria avoiding any assumption of convexity both for the domain and for the bifunction. Our approach is based on the concept of cyclic monotonicity for bifunctions. First, we exploit this notion to obtain an Ekeland’s variational principle for bifunctions which leads to the existence of approximate solutions of the so-called Minty equilibrium problem. Then, we prove the existence of equilibria in compact and noncompact settings. We introduce a new notion as a key tool for deriving a Minty’s lemma avoiding the use of convexity.