Variability in agricultural productivity and rural household consumption inequality: Evidence from Nigeria and Uganda

This paper uses multiple rounds of panel data to assess the distributional implications of the variability in agricultural productivity in Nigeria and Uganda. It uses both a conventional decomposition and a regression‐based inequality decomposition approach to estimate the impact of climate‐induced variability in agricultural productivity. To mitigate the endogeneity associated with unobserved time‐invariant and time‐variant household fixed effects, we use rainfall shocks as a proxy for estimating the exogenous variability in agricultural productivity that affects consumption. Results suggest that a 10% increase in the variability of agricultural productivity tends to decrease household consumption by 38 and 52% on average for Nigeria and Uganda, respectively. Controlling for other factors, variability in agricultural productivity contributed to between 25% and 43% of consumption inequality between 2010 and 2015 for Nigeria; and 16% and 31% of consumption inequality between 2009 and 2011 for Uganda. We also show that variability in agricultural productivity increases changes in consumption inequality over time.     

作物种植专业化程度对农业生态效率的影响

目的 从作物种植专业化程度视角考察农业种植结构变化对农业生态效率的影响以及农业技术的作用,为农业可持续发展提出可行的路径。方法 文章首先从理论上阐述了作物种植专业化和多样化对农业产值、农业污染和农业生态效率的影响以及农业技术在其中发挥的作用。并运用2004—2018年中国30个省（市、自治区,不含港澳台西藏）的面板数据,实证检验了作物种植专业化和多样化对农业产值、农业面源污染和农业碳排放以及农业生态效率的影响。结果 （1）作物种植专业化显著促进了农业产值增加、农业面源污染和农业碳排放减排和农业生态效率的提高,作物种植专业化水平每增加1个单位,农业产值将增加1.6%,农业面源污染和农业碳排放将减少0.001个单位,农业生态效率将提高0.009个单位;（2）作物种植多样化对农业面源污染和农业碳排放减排有显著的促进作用,但对农业产值和农业生态效率的提高有负面效应,作物种植多样化水平每增加1个单位,农业面源污染和农业碳排放将减少0.072个单位,农业生态效率将降低0.699个单位;（3）当一般性农业技术水平高的时候,作物种植专业化对农业产值有显著的正向影响;当低碳型农业技术水平高（大于临界值）的时候,作物种植专业化和多样化均有利于农业产值的增加和农业面源污染、农业碳排放的减排。结论 各区域在积极研发高产激励型农业技术的同时不能忽视低碳型农业技术的提高,并积极促进作物种植专业化水平的提高,适度降低作物种植多样化水平。     

规模经济抑或分工经济——来自农业家庭经营绩效的证据

农地规模经营与农业分工深化是实现农业规模经营的两类相互关联的路径选择.本文探讨了农地经营规模、农业分工与农业家庭经营绩效之间的关系,并利用江汉平原地区的1701个样本农户调查数据进行实证检验.结果表明:(1)农地流转及其规模经营内生的交易费用与组织管理成本问题,导致农地规模对农业家庭经营绩效的改进效应存在适度规模水平;...     

Adoption of Multiple Sustainable Agricultural Practices in Rural Ethiopia

The adoption and diffusion of sustainable agricultural practices (SAPs) has become an important issue in the development‐policy agenda for sub‐Saharan Africa, especially as a way to tackle land degradation, low agricultural productivity and poverty. However, the adoption rates of SAPs remain below expected levels. This study analyses the factors that facilitate or impede the probability and level of adoption of interrelated SAPs, using recent data from multiple plot‐level observations in rural Ethiopia. Multivariate and ordered probit models are applied to the modelling of adoption decisions by farm households facing multiple SAPs, which can be adopted in various combinations. The results show that there is a significant correlation between SAPs, suggesting that adoptions of SAPs are interrelated. The analysis further shows that both the probability and the extent of adoption of SAPs are influenced by many factors: a household’s trust in government support, credit constraints, spouse education, rainfall and plot‐level disturbances, household wealth, social capital and networks, labour availability, plot and market access. These results imply that policy‐makers and development practitioners should seek to strengthen local institutions and service providers, maintain or increase household asset bases and establish and strengthen social protection schemes in order to improve the adoption of SAPs.     

Rural non‐farm diversification,agricultural feminisation and women's autonomy in the farm: evidence from India

This study contributes to the literature on the interlinkage between household non‐farm diversification (HND), agricultural feminisation and female autonomy in farming. The study uses unit‐level data from the Indian Human Development Survey for the years 2004 ‐ 2005 and 2011 ‐ 2012. The paper employs instrumental variable regression methods to study such interlinkages. The results show HND to be a significant factor contributing to the feminisation of agriculture. The study finds some evidence that the phenomenon is distress driven. Further, greater participation of women in agriculture, as well as women's access to land rights, significantly contributes to female autonomy in farm decision‐making. The results are robust to the use of alternative indicators of agricultural feminisation.     

Livelihood diversification strategies in the Himalayas*

This article examines livelihood diversification strategies of rural households using survey data from the Himalayas. We present and explore an analytical framework that yields different activity choices as optimal solutions to a simple utility maximization problem. By classifying the range of activities of rural households into a few distinct categories based on their profitability and by considering portfolios of farm and non‐farm activities, we provide novel insights into diversification behaviour of rural households. The evidence shows that while the poor are mainly agricultural labourers and work in the low‐return non‐farm sector, the better‐off diversify in high‐return non‐farm activities. As expected, we find strong evidence that education plays a major role in accessing more remunerative non‐farm employment. A somewhat less intuitive finding is that larger household size is associated with higher probability of diversification into the high‐return non‐farm sector. The finding that the farm size is not a constraint to diversification in lucrative non‐farm employment is also surprising. Geographical location plays a role in diversification behaviour of rural households indicating the importance of local context.     

Specialization and Diversification in Agricultural Transformation: The Case of West Punjab, 1903–92

In this article, the role of crop specialization and diversification in agricultural transformation is investigated empirically. Changes in aggregate land productivity are associated structurally with inter-crop and inter-district reallocation of land use. Results from a region with the oldest history of agricultural commercialization in developing countries show that cropping patterns of subsistence agriculture changed substantially, with rising concentration of crop acreage in districts with higher and growing productivity. Rapid specialization in crop production was observed at the district level recently, after a phase with sporadic specialization. These changes reflected comparative advantage and contributed to the improvement in aggregate land productivity.     

Specialization,diversification, and productivity: a panel data analysis of rice farms in Korea

This article examines the microeconomics of productivity associated with specialization/diversification in production activities, with an application to Korean rice farms. Korean rice farms tend to be very small and highly specialized. Our analysis examines the productivity effects associated with both farm size and farm specialization/diversification in Korean agriculture. Relying on farm‐level panel data, the analysis studies farm productivity in a multi‐input multi‐output context, accounting not only for changes in inputs and technical change in rice production, but also for the role of diversification in the production of other crops in current and previous periods. We find positive but small productivity gains from farm diversification. These gains come mostly from complementarity effects across farm outputs, with minimal effect of scale economies. The positive complementarity effects work against nonconvexity effects, which provide strong productivity incentives for rice farms to specialize.     

Linkages between the farm and nonfarm sectors at the household level in rural Ghana: a consistent stochastic distance function approach

This article explores the effects within households of an expanding rural nonfarm (RNF) sector in Ghana. We ask whether the growing RNF sector allows for economies of diversification within farms, how it affects household input demands, and whether it has measurable effects in overall household production efficiency. We explore the intrahousehold linkages between agricultural and RNF activities, first assuming perfectly competitive input and output markets and then with market failures, in particular missing labor and credit markets. We then measure these linkages using a household level input distance function, finding high levels of inefficiency in Ghanaian farms. Also, there are cost-complementarities between the RNF sector and the agricultural sector, particularly with food crops in which the poorest tend to specialize. The expansion of the RNF sector increases demand for most inputs including agricultural land. Finally, we show that smaller farms tend to be more efficient, and that RNF output is helping the farm household to become more efficient, but the latter result is not robust.     

Off‐farm labor market decisions and agricultural shocks among rural households in Kenya

Using household level data from rural Kenya, this article explores whether and how farm households respond to unfavorable agricultural production environments, including any ex post adjustments in off‐farm labor supply in response to unexpected weather shocks. While controlling for a wide range of educational, demographic, and other locational factors, we examine how long‐term weather conditions and specific rainfall shocks influence a household's decision to engage in, and their earnings from, the off‐farm labor market. We find that rural households engage in off‐farm work as a long‐term strategy to deal with the effects of anticipated weather conditions on their farming operations. The analysis does not reveal major short‐term adjustments in off‐farm engagement as a result of specific, unexpected rainfall shocks; these households do however rely on remittance income and petty agricultural wage labor under these circumstances. Holding other factors constant, and conditional on participation, households in areas with a more productive local agriculture tend to earn more from off‐farm work especially in the informal/business sector than their counterparts in regions with a less productive agriculture. As expected, a vibrant local economy in the form of public investment increases the probability of off‐farm participation.     

Does fertilizer use respond to rainfall variability? Panel data evidence from Ethiopia

In this article, we use farmers' actual experiences with changes in rainfall levels and their responses to these changes to assess whether patterns of fertilizer use are responsive to changes in rainfall patterns. Using panel data from the Central Highlands of Ethiopia matched with corresponding village‐level rainfall data, the results show that the intensity of current year's fertilizer use is positively associated with higher rainfall levels experienced in the previous year. Rainfall variability, on the other hand, impacts fertilizer use decisions negatively, implying that variability raises the risks and uncertainty associated with fertilizer use. Abundant rainfall in the previous year could depict relaxed liquidity constraints and increased affordability of fertilizer, which makes rainfall availability critical in severely credit‐constrained environments. In light of similar existing literature, the major contribution of the study is that it uses panel data to explicitly examine farmers' responses to actual weather changes and variability.     

Does mixed crop‐livestock farming lead to less diversified diets among smallholders? Evidence from Laos

Malnourishment continues to remain a challenge in developing countries. As the undernourished are largely smallholder farmers, it is widely assumed that farm diversification and mixed crop‐livestock agricultural systems can help alleviate this problem. However, empirical evidence in this context is limited. Hence, we use a two‐year panel's data from Laos to examine whether farm production diversity as well as a mixed crop‐livestock farming system improves household dietary diversity among smallholder farmer. The results from the fixed effects regression indicate that although farm production diversity does lead to a higher dietary diversity, the effect diminishes with continued farm diversification. The counterfactual analysis from the endogenous switching regression reveals that mixed crop‐livestock farming systems do not necessarily enhance dietary diversity. However, we further find that purchasing food from the markets plays an important role in enhancing the dietary diversity of rural smallholder farmers.     

Technical Efficiency among Peasant Farmers Participating in Natural Resource Management Programmes in Central America

This study examines the extent to which technical efficiency (TE) is related to activities promoted by two natural resource management programmes recently completed in Central America. Data for a total of 639 farms operating in the hillsides of El Salvador and Honduras are used to estimate a household‐level input‐oriented stochastic distance frontier simultaneously with a TE effects model. The main finding of this study is that improvements in TE are financially beneficial to farm households while also contributing to environmental sustainability. The results also reveal a positive association between productivity and output diversification, and a positive relationship between TE and off‐farm income, human capital and agricultural extension.     

Land use and income diversification: comparing traditional and colonist populations in the Brazilian Amazon

This article compares and analyzes land use and income diversification among two distinct groups of farmers in the Brazilian Amazon: recent colonists in Ouro Preto do Oeste, Rondônia, and traditional long‐term residents along the Tapajós River, Pará. We investigate the hypothesis that farmers who diversify their cash income sources clear less forest on an annual basis, and we compare these livelihood choices across colonist and traditional populations. In particular, we develop a conceptual model based on the household production framework and use econometric models to identify determinants of diversification and forest clearing. We find that diversification of agricultural cash crops is negatively correlated with forest clearing by colonists, providing limited evidence for the hypothesis. Other significant covariates of diversification and forest clearing include cash income levels, stage in family life cycle, cattle ownership, and chemical inputs. Differences in these variables, and differences in household response to these variables, explain variation in diversification and forest clearing across the two populations.     

Causes of Changes in Agricultural Employment in Slovenia: Evidence from Micro‐data

This paper analyses labour adjustment in and out of agriculture during transition to a market economy. A multinomial logit model is used to determine the factors that affect these processes. The results show that elderly, less educated and full‐time employees on a farm are more likely to continue with farming. Inflow of labour into agriculture is largely associated with the unemployment and retirement of farm household members. Age, education and investment in human capital are the key factors that improve the quality, mobility and flexibility of labour, which is crucial for efficient labour adjustment at the micro‐level and sector level. Better‐educated individuals are more likely to enter into employment in non‐agricultural, particularly service, activities.     

Off-farm labour allocation decisions in small-scale rural households in Zimbabwe

The double hurdle model is used to analyse the off‐farm labour decisions of small‐scale agricultural household members in the Shamva District of Zimbabwe. The approach permits the joint modelling of the decision to participate in the labour market and the decision regarding the amount of time allocated to work. Results indicate that a number of variables (notably, gender, education and assets) indeed have effects which are qualitatively and quantitatively different in terms of participation and hours worked. Overall, the empirical analysis confirms the importance of individual characteristics (such as gender and education) and household/farm characteristics (e.g. land area accessible to the household, productive assets, remittances and the agricultural terms of trade) in influencing the labour market decisions of rural household members.     

Understanding rural household behavior: Beyond Boserup and Becker

New data and new methods have provided many new insights into rural households in the past 50 years. We analyze what we have learned from household models since Boserup and Becker, using this to frame more recent findings about household behavior from three types of studies: observational studies, experimental games, and impact evaluations. More sex-disaggregated data, as well as data that are collected at smaller units, such as agricultural plots, have allowed us to better understand agricultural productivity, risk sharing, and spousal cooperation. However, the focus on bargaining within households has often led us to ignore the cooperation that occurs within households. Many resources are owned and managed jointly by household members and many decisions are made jointly, although not all parties necessarily have equal voice in these decisions. Research demonstrating that households often do not reach efficient outcomes suggests that we still have much to learn about rural household behavior. Understanding both individual roles within households and the levels of cooperation, including joint decision making and ownership of resources, is essential to analysis of households, especially in rural areas where households engage in both production and consumption.     

Whither the pin factory? Modern food supply chains and specialization in India

What is the relationship between smallholder participation in modern food supply chains and their degree of economic specialization? We investigate this research question by looking at whether there is a systematic relationship between whether a household grows crops for a supermarket chain—participation in the supermarket channel—and how concentrated among fewer crops are that household's total landholdings and its output. Using longitudinal data from India, we find that there is no relationship between whether a household participates in the supermarket channel and that household's Herfindahl–Hirschman index for land, but there is a robust statistically significant and negative relationship between whether a household participates in the supermarket channel and that household's Herfindahl–Hirschman index for output. These findings hold true at both the extensive margin (i.e., when considering whether a household participates in the supermarket channel) and the intensive margin (i.e., when considering how much of a household's marketed output is sold through the supermarket chain). This suggests that instead of fostering a greater degree of specialization, participation in modern food supply chains might lead to greater diversification.     

Agriculture–nutrition linkages with heterogeneous,unobserved returns and costs: Insights from Tajikistan

Agriculture–nutrition linkages (ANLs) have been increasingly investigated in the literature. However, nutritional returns and costs of household agricultural production practices (APPs) in semisubsistence settings are poorly understood. We fill these knowledge gaps using pooled cross-section data sets in Tajikistan, where semisubsistence farming and undernutrition coexist despite relatively good agricultural infrastructure and education systems. Agricultural diversification, yield enhancement, production expansion are positively associated with various nutritional outcomes, particularly in areas with poor food market access. Decomposition exercises suggest that nutritional returns and costs of these APPs vary across households, and the adoption of APPs is driven by the expected nutritional returns. In Tajikistan, improving nutrition through household ANLs requires growing the smallholder agricultural sector in multiple dimensions, including diversification, intensification, and expansion, while also understanding better the pathways of ANLs and addressing bottlenecks at appropriate stages of such pathways.     

Impacts of considering climate variability on investment decisions in Ethiopia

Extreme interannual variability of precipitation within Ethiopia is not uncommon, inducing droughts or floods and often creating serious repercussions on agricultural and nonagricultural commodities. A dynamic climate module is integrated into an economy‐wide model containing a detailed zonal level agricultural structure. This coupled climate‐economic model is used to evaluate the effects of climate variability on prospective irrigation and infrastructure investment strategies, and the ensuing country‐wide economy. The linkages between the dynamic climate module and the economic model are created by the introduction of a climate‐yield factor (CYF), defined at the crop level and varied across Ethiopian zones. Nine sets of variable climate (VC) data are processed by the coupled model, generating stochastic wet and dry shocks, producing an ensemble of potential economic prediction indicators. Analysis of gross domestic product and poverty rate reveal a significant overestimation of the country's future welfare under all investment strategies when climate variability is ignored. The coupled model ensemble is further utilized for risk assessment to guide Ethiopian policy and planning.