ISSUES IN MEDIUM-TERM MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT

Four years after the onset of the world debt crisis, the issueis how to restore growth. The answer is structural adjustment,both macro and micro. At the macro level, adjustments have tobe made to the structure of aggregate demand and supply to restoregrowth while generating the needed trade surpluses. This meansprimarily real exchange rates that are maintained at appropriatelevels and an emphasis on investment. At the micro level, itis argued that most developing countries need to liberalizetrade, allow the price system to operate, develop financialsystems, reform taxes, and improve the efficiency of publicenterprises, perhaps by selling them. The article discussesthe nature of these two types of reforms and the policy andresearch issues relevant to World Bank analysis of growth programs.      

Supply and Demand Effects of Bank Bailouts: Depositors Need Not Apply and Need Not Run

We address two key issues concerning bank bailout effects on depositor and bank behavior. The first is whether bailouts weaken or strengthen market discipline by depositors through deposit supplies. The second is if bailed-out banks decrease or increase their deposit demands. These questions can only be adequately addressed by analyzing the effects of bailouts on both deposit quantities and prices. We do so for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) bailouts. Overall, we find that demand changes empirically dominate supply changes, and suggest significantly reduced deposit demand from bailouts. In some cases, however, supply changes dominate and indicate weakened market discipline.     

金融科技、最优银行业市场结构与小微企业信贷供给

小微企业融资问题一直备受各界关注,金融科技的发展或许会带来新变化,但相关研究尚不充分。本文构建包含贷款技术和银行业市场结构的理论模型,提出金融科技、银行业市场结构与小微企业信贷供给的关系假说。在此基础上,手工收集百度搜索指数数据,建立与银行小微企业信贷业务相关的各省金融科技发展水平指数,并利用2011-2018年省级面板数据进行相应的实证检验。研究结果表明:针对整个银行业体系,金融科技有助于促进银行小微企业信贷供给;银行业市场结构与小微企业信贷供给之间呈现“倒U”型关系,即推动银行增加小微企业信贷供给时,存在最优银行业市场结构;与此同时,金融科技发展水平将影响银行业最优市场结构,金融科技发展水平越高,促进小微企业信贷供给的最优银行业竞争程度越高。本文的研究结论能够进一步丰富小微企业信贷理论,补充中国经验证据,为促进银行小微企业信贷供给提供重要启示。     

东北老工业基地人口城市化的就业效应分析

在东北老工业基地经济振兴中,人口城市化与就业是相互影响的两个重大问题,对人口城市化进程中产生的就业效应进行理性的分析,意义尤为重大.本文在经济学分析框架下纳入人口学与统计学的研究方法,采用城乡增长率差法客观预测了东北地区未来城市化发展趋势,并以此为基础对劳动力需求趋势进行了科学的预测,得出的主要结论是城市化水平的提高在一定程度上会加剧城镇劳动力市场的供求矛盾,但与此同时也促进了经济增长,带来了经济的繁荣和就业水平的提高,二者之间并非完全对立关系,存在协调发展的可能.     

注册会计师执业环境与审计质量问题研究——供给与需求的视角

本文首先从供给和需求的角度构建了注册会计师执业环境的分析框架,并分别对供给环境与需求环境对审计质量的影响进行了分析,然后结合广东省的问卷调查结果对我国注册会计师执业环境存在的问题——“供给规范不够,需求引导不足”做了系统研究,在此基础上提出了相应的对策。     

政治问责视角下的政府财务信息供求机制研究

资本市场中的会计改革已经证实,宏观制度因素能够影响资本市场中的财务信息供求。在公共领域,学者们发现宏观层面的制度变化也对政府会计信息的供求机制产生影响。政治问责形式根据制度环境变迁,从而改变政府会计信息供求关系,引起政府会计改革,但将政治问责与财务信息供求联系起来的研究却屈指可数。论文从政治问责视角切入研究我国政府财务信息供求问题,从理论上探讨了政治问责与信息供求机制的内在关系;较为全面、系统地梳理了我国政治问责与政府财务信息供求的历史与现状;从我国目前的实际情况出发,结合具体案例进行论证,提出了相关的政府会计信息披露的政策建议。。     

Does common auditor have an impact on corporate tax avoidance? An investigation from the supply chain perspective

We find that, at both the audit firm and partner level, having a common auditor in the supply chain has a significant positive association with the supplier company's degree of tax avoidance. Companies report a higher level of tax avoidance when they are audited by an industry-expert or a tax expert common auditor, when the common audit partner is economically dependent on the supplier company, when the audit client is in a highly competitive industry, and when the company is subject to a high level of information asymmetry. Moreover, we find potential audit quality issues embedded in common audits in the supply chain.     

Modelling the behaviour of the new issue market

This paper analyses the time series behaviour of the initial public offering (IPO) market using an equilibrium model of demand and supply that incorporates the number of new issues, average underpricing, and general market conditions. Model predictions include the existence of serial correlation in both the number of new issues and the average level of underpricing, as well as interactions between these variables and the impact of general market conditions. The model is tested using 40 years of monthly IPO data. The empirical results are generally consistent with predictions.     

Goals versus institutions: the development of performance measurement in the Swedish university sector

This paper contrasts goal-directed and institutional approaches to the development of performance measurement (PM) in the Swedish university sector, which has been subject to increasing emphasis on management by objectives since the early 1990s. We adopt a macro perspective, focusing on recent changes in PM related to governmental control of universities and colleges and combine an extensive review of archival data with interviews in our empirical analysis. It is concluded that although the goal-directed model cannot be completely rejected as a heuristic informing recent changes in PM, a process-orientated institutional perspective considerably enriches the analysis by making it less static and more contextually informed. In particular, the latter perspective better explains the evolution of loose couplings between formally stated goals and performance indicators and between different systems for PM by directing attention to the complex interplay between conflicting constituent interests in the evolution of resource and cost allocation practices and quality control procedures. However, our empirical analysis also leads us to reconsider the conceptions of loose coupling as either a “given” feature of institutionalised organizations or an outcome of more pro-active resistance at the micro level prevailing in much earlier work in institutional theory.     

An alternate method of estimating the Cagan money demand function in hyperinflation under rational expectations

An alternate method of estimating the Cagan money demand function under rational expectations is presented. The technique utilizes the side assumptions that (1) accurate contemporaneous information on the price level and money stock is available to individuals and (2) unobservable noise in the portfolio balance schedule is neglible. The procedure has three main virtues. First, it is implemented without imposing restrictions on the money supply process. Second, the procedure is extremely simple and economical. Third, it admits a simple test of a restriction implied by the Cagan money demand function. Results are related to issues in recent hyperinflation studies.     

农业保险中的政府角色:理论诠释与中国的选择

在农业保险的发展过程中,其是否属于(准)公共产品、农民的风险态度、政府是否该介入、如何介入,不仅在一般的理论层面存在争议,而且也涉及政府与市场关系等特殊性问题。在梳理国内外相关文献对上述问题的分析之后,从政府与市场的角度,对政府介入解决我国农业保险三大基本特征(供给和需求的双重不足,市场发育和制度规范的双重缺失,以及逆选择与道德风险严重)的定位及行为路径进行了探讨。     

影响跨境贸易人民币结算发展的宏观经济因素实证分析

我国跨境贸易人民币结算起步较晚,发展过程中存在着许多问题。国内对跨境贸易人民币结算这一问题的研究主要集中在发展存在的问题及风险,对结算参与微观主体意义,以及对外贸经济的推动作用几个方面,基本停留在微观研究层面,而对宏观层面影响因素的研究不足。从宏观层面上研究影响跨境贸易人民币结算的经济因素,分析对外贸易、外汇储备、汇率、货币供给等宏观经济变量对跨境贸易人民币结算发展的影响,将有利于厘清人民币国际化发展的内生动力,对未来人民币国际化的发展起到重要的政策指导作用。     

德国利率市场化改革的特点与其金融业发展

利率市场化是指金融机构在货币市场经营融资的利率由市场供求来决定,它包括利率决定、利率传导、利率结构和利率管理的市场化。文章考察了德国利率市场化改革的特点及其对金融业发展的积极影响。德国利率市场化改革分步骤平稳推进。改革后,在全能银行模式下德国金融业没有出现象美、英那样的银行集中倒闭危机;银行贷款在非金融部门融资中仍居于主导地位,而住户部门的金融资产结构发生显著变化;德国的货币政策主要是通过改变银行的流动性来影响金融市场利率,进而间接影响银行信贷政策以及实体经济。     

Information demand and stock market volatility

We study information demand and supply at the firm and market level using data for 30 of the largest stocks traded on NYSE and NASDAQ. Demand is approximated in a novel manner from weekly internet search volume time series drawn from the recently released Google Trends database. Our paper makes contributions in four main directions. First, although information demand and supply tend to be positively correlated, their dynamic interactions do not allow conclusive inferences about the information discovery process. Second, demand for information at the market level is significantly positively related to historical and implied measures of volatility and to trading volume, even after controlling for market return and information supply. Third, information demand increases significantly during periods of higher returns. Fourth, analysis of the expected variance risk premium confirms for the first time empirically the hypothesis that investors demand more information as their level of risk aversion increases.     

当前我国农村金融供需状况的分析——基于河北省农村的调查

本文通过对河北省主要农村地区的走访及问卷调查的方式,将回收的数据进行统计学整理及分析,试分析出河北省农村金融的供需现状及问题,并进一步分析导致农村金融供需差异的根本原因,为解决我国农村金融供需差异问题提供参考.     

新型农村微小金融组织发展框架与发展路径研究——以台州为例

近年来,台州积极发展新型农村微小金融组织,成为浙江省乃至全国农村微小金融组织体系较为完善的地区之一,不同的新型农村微小金融组织与常规农村金融机构一起在台州初步形成了覆盖范围广、组织形式多的农村金融供给格局,但农村金融需求仍存在较大缺口,大力发展此类组织仍是农村金融体系构建的重要一环,而如何利用不同金融组织的特点来有针对性的进行培育、完善金融监管、构建制度体系、予以政策扶持一直是亟待解决的难点,因此,本文从台州新型农村微小金融组织发展态势与特征入手,对其优势、劣势等各方面进行分析,在此基础上提出台州新型农村金融组织发展框架与发展路径.     

Does Macro‐Prudential Regulation Leak? Evidence from a UK Policy Experiment

The regulation of bank capital as a means of smoothing the credit cycle is a central element of forthcoming macro‐prudential regimes internationally. For such regulation to be effective in controlling the aggregate supply of credit it must be the case that: (i) changes in capital requirements affect loan supply by regulated banks, and (ii) unregulated substitute sources of credit are unable to offset changes in credit supply by affected banks. This paper examines micro evidence—lacking to date—on both questions, using a unique data set. In the UK, regulators have imposed time‐varying, bank‐specific minimum capital requirements since Basel I. It is found that regulated banks (UK‐owned banks and resident foreign subsidiaries) reduce lending in response to tighter capital requirements. But unregulated banks (resident foreign branches) increase lending in response to tighter capital requirements on a relevant reference group of regulated banks. This “leakage” is substantial, amounting to about one‐third of the initial impulse from the regulatory change.     

利率决定理论——利率市场化理论基础之一

利率市场化是指金融机构在货币市场经营融资的利率由市场供求来决定。它包括利率决定、利率传导、利率结构和利率管理的市场化。推进利率市场化的理论基础涉及利率决定理论、利率传导理论以及剖析利率结构和利率管理的金融发展理论。本文重点介绍了利率决定相关理论的核心思想,这些理论包括古典利率决定理论、马克思的利率决定理论、凯恩斯利率决定理论、可贷资金论以及IS—LM模型等。研究表明,平均利润率、资金的供求关系、通货膨胀率、央行的货币政策、国际金融市场利率等都会影响一国利率水平。     

Funding a PAYG pension system: the case of Italy

Italy is characterised by a mature pay‐as‐you‐go social security system and by particularly adverse population projections. Given these trends, the social security contribution rate is expected to increase above its current high level. This hinders the development of employer‐provided pension funds and introduces a significant wedge between labour cost and earnings that discourages both labour demand and labour supply. Any proposal to reduce payroll taxes and to reform the system in the direction of partial funding has to cope with the state of Italian public finances. Italy has to comply with the Stability and Growth Pact that imposes constraints on budget deficit and debt trends. Using micro data from the Bank of Italy's Survey of Household Income and Wealth and official population projections, we estimate future employment trends under different demographic and macroeconomic scenarios and compute the cost of the transition. We show that it would be substantially reduced if positive effects on employment were induced by the payroll tax reduction.     

The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes

Using dealer's quotes and transactions prices on straight industrial bonds, we investigate the determinants of credit spread changes. Variables that should in theory determine credit spread changes have rather limited explanatory power. Further, the residuals from this regression are highly cross-correlated, and principal components analysis implies they are mostly driven by a single common factor. Although we consider several macroeconomic and financial variables as candidate proxies, we cannot explain this common systematic component. Our results suggest that monthly credit spread changes are principally driven by local supply/demand shocks that are independent of both credit-risk factors and standard proxies for liquidity.