Derived Demand for Refrigerated Truck Transport: A Gravity Model Analysis of Canadian Pork Exports to the United States

Gravity models have a long history in the empirical analysis of trade flows and market penetration, but lack a strong economic foundation. This paper demonstrates that the gravity model can be reconciled with existing economic theory within the framework of an interregional trade model. An empirical gravity model of interregional trade is specified for Canadian pork exports to the United States. The estimated results show that, among other things, demand for transport is highly elastic, suggesting that pork producers and truckers have a mutual interest in exploring means to lower freight costs. Finally, the gravity model is used to identify potential markets for each of the five major exporting provinces. The Canadian pork industry has its best opportunity for further penetration in Illinois, Texas, New York and New Jersey.     

Effects of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy Outbreaks on U.S. Cattle and Beef Prices

U.S. trade of beef and live cattle declined substantially after the discoveries of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Canada and the United States in 2003. In this study, an econometric model is developed to estimate the effects of lifting trade restrictions on U.S. cattle and beef prices. Results show that increases in imports of Canadian cattle and beef would lower prices of slaughter steers, feeder steers, and retail beef, but these negative impacts would be more than negated by the positive effects on prices that would result if beef exports return to near pre-BSE levels.     

Role of international politics on agri‐food trade: Evidence from US–Canada bilateral relations

A well‐functioning trade relationship between Canada and the United States is crucial to the economic vitality of the Canadian agri‐food industry. However, agri‐food trade is more susceptible than other sectors to political interventions. The Trump presidency has strained Canada–US relations and his trade policy actions have significantly increased trade restrictions and trade policy uncertainty and undermined the rules‐based global trading system. We examine the pattern of agri‐food trade between the two countries and find that the upward trajectory of bilateral agri‐food trade ended in 2013. Although this flatlining predates the Trump administration, we show that Trump increased trade policy uncertainty starting in 2017 and likely impacted further expansion of trade. We examine what might change under the Biden presidency and argue that the new administration is likely to restore strong relationships with allies and work to rebuild important international institutions such as the World Trade Organization (WTO). Although protectionist forces will continue to impact bilateral agri‐food trade, we expect closer political ties between a Biden administration and the Canadian Prime Minister. This should have a positive effect on the Canadian agri‐food industry by reducing trade uncertainties, thereby increasing agri‐food trade between Canada and the United States.     

Potential implications of COVID-19 on the Canadian pork industry

Canada and the United States have strong economic ties and form part of an integrated North American pork industry. Canada's pork industry is export-oriented, and the United States represents a key market for both live pigs and pork. Pork value chain stakeholders include input suppliers, pig producers, transportation companies, slaughter plants, wholesalers, and retailers. There are three overriding areas of concern for the Canadian pork industry with respect to potential impacts of the current pandemic (COVID-19). The first is Canada/US trade and the ability to continue exporting Canadian live pigs and pork to the United States. The second is labor and the impact of potential absenteeism on all sectors of the pork value chain. The third is global trade, because Canada's pork industry relies heavily on exporting pork to markets around the world.     

Country of Origin Labeling and Structural Change in U.S. Imports of Canadian Cattle and Beef

Mandatory country of origin labeling (COOL) has become a thorny issue in U.S.–Canada bilateral trade relations. We undertake an ex post investigation of the impact of the law on U.S. imports of Canadian beef, feeder, and fed cattle. Using a partial equilibrium framework, we derive U.S. import demand equations for Canadian cattle and beef, and employ the Bai and Perron (1998, 2003) procedure for detecting multiple structural breaks with break points being endogenously determined. We find evidence that COOL may have caused significant structural change in U.S. imports of Canadian feeder and fed cattle. L’étiquetage du pays d'origine obligatoire est devenu un sujet épineux des relations commerciales entre le Canada et les États‐Unis. Dans la présente étude, nous effectuons une analyse ex post des répercussions de la Loi sur les importations américaines de viande de b?uf, de bovins d'engraissement et de bovins finis. À l'aide d'un modèle d’équilibre partiel, nous avons dérivé des équations de demande d'importation de bovins et de viande de b?uf de la part des États‐Unis et nous avons utilisé les tests de Bai et Perron (1998, 2003) pour déceler les ruptures structurelles multiples, dont les points de rupture ont été déterminés de façon endogène. Les résultats de notre étude montrent que l’étiquetage du pays d'origine peut avoir causé un changement structurel considérable sur les importations de bovins d'engraissement et de bovins finis.     

The Size and Structure of the Livestock Industry in Canada, 1980

Major changes are occurring in the Canadian livestock industry. These changes will lead to increasing emphasis on development of the Canadian feeder cattle industry, but with less rapid growth of the fed cattle sector. Continued access to low-cost cereals would benefit the cattle feeding industry, but continued grain marketing problems are seen as leading to shifts from grain to forage production.
Domestic pork consumption prospects are seen as being more attractive than those indicated by recent studies. Nevertheless, major changes seem required in order to make Canadian pork products vigorously competitive on U.S. markets.
DIMENSION ET STRUCTURE DE L'INDUSTRIE DU BÉTAIL AU CANADA, 1980 – L'Industrie canadienne du bétail est à l'heure actuelle le théâtre d'importants changements. On y observe d'abord un développement rapide de lélevage destinéà l'embouche du bétail et dans une moindre mesure de l'élevage industriel. Le fait de pouvoir disposer de céréales à bas prix pourrait avantager l'Industrie de l'alimentation animale mais les problèmes continuels de commercialisation conduisant les producteurs à préférer la culture du four rage à celle des céréales.
Les perspectives de consommation domestique de pore s'avèrent plus intéressantes que celles indiquées par de récentes études. Néanmoins, de plus grands changements semblent nécessaires pour rendre les produits du pore canadien plus compétitifs sur les marchés américains.     

Canadian dairy policy and the returns to federal dairy cattle research

The economic surplus approach is used to estimate the returns to federal investments in dairy cattle research in Canada. A national supply function is estimated using time series data. Lagged research expenditures are included as explanatory variables in the model, facilitating the calculation of ***marginal as well as average benefits from research. Simulation analysis is used to study the effects of product market distortions associated with Canadian dairy policy as well as of the marginal excess burden on the rates of return to research and on the distribution of research benefits. Returns were found to be high at the margin. Distortions in the product market had a small effect on the overall returns to dairy cattle research but had a large impact on the distribution of research benefits. Rate of return estimates were found to be indicative of underinvestment even when the marginal excess burden was taken into account.     

Trade Bans, Imperfect Competition, and Welfare: BSE and the U.S. Beef Industry

Between May 2003 and July 2005, the U.S. beef industry faced a total ban on Canadian cattle imports following the discovery of BSE in Canada in May 2003 and restrictions on U.S. beef exports following the discovery of BSE in the United States in December 2003. When the United States reopened its border to Canadian cattle in July 2005, shipments were restricted to cattle less than 30 months of age. The total ban on Canadian cattle imports and restrictions on U.S. beef exports overlapped between January 2004 and July 2005. The restrictions on Canadian cattle imports and U.S. beef exports overlapped for some time after July 2005. This paper addresses theoretically and empirically how to disentangle the impact on the U.S. beef industry of the BSE-related beef trade interruptions in the presence of overlaps and imperfect competition. Entre mai 2003 et juillet 2005, l'industrie bovine américaine s'est vue imposer une interdiction d'importer des bovins canadiens à la suite de la découverte d'un cas d'ESB au Canada en mai 2003 ainsi que des restrictions quant aux exportations de bœuf américain à la suite de la découverte d'un cas d'ESB aux États-Unis en décembre 2003. En juillet 2005, les États-Unis ont rouvert leur frontière aux bovins canadiens vivants de moins de 30 mois uniquement. L'interdiction absolue d'importer des bovins canadiens et les restrictions sur les exportations de bœuf américain se sont chevauchées entre janvier 2004 et juillet 2005. Les restrictions sur les importations de bovins canadiens et les exportations de bœuf américain se sont chevauchées pendant quelque temps après juillet 2005. Le présent article s'est penché sur les façons, théoriques et empiriques, de démĉler les répercussions que les interruptions du commerce du bœuf attribuables à l'ESB ont eues sur l'industrie bovine américaine en présence de chevauchements et de concurrence imparfaite.     

Testing for Processor Market Power in the Markets for Cattle and Hogs in Canada

Deviations of livestock input prices from processor marginal value product are usually interpreted as an indication of the application of market power by the meat packing industry. However, market power depends on economic conditions that can influence the behavior of meat packers in the market for cattle and hogs. An industry-level translog profit function is applied to data on the Canadian finished cattle and hog markets and industry-wide oligopsony market power functions are estimated. The estimates suggest beef packers exercised a small but sustained amount of market power in the Canadian finished cattle market from 1978 to 1997. This is not the case in the market for hogs, which was competitive from 1960 to 1997. Application of market power in packers'purchases of farm animals decreased with increases in the utilization of domestic supply of slaughter animals and with increased levels of livestock exports. Livestock productivity increases appear to have significantly enhanced oligopsony power in packers'purchases of farm animals. The analysis suggests that beef processors may exert market power when cattle prices are relatively higher.     

State trading deregulation and prairie durum wheat production

We estimate the impact of the 2012 removal of the Canadian Wheat Board's (CWB) single-desk on the spatial pattern of durum wheat acres in Western Canada. We analyze changes in durum seeded acres with a panel regression and Census Agricultural Region data from 2004 to 2016. Our results indicate that removal of the CWB single-desk had a significant impact on total durum production in Western Canada. In addition, we find that the spatial distribution of durum wheat acres shifted away from marginal durum-growing areas and toward drier areas, an increase in specialization that arguably improved the efficiency of resource allocation.     

The law and economics of Canada's WTO litigation contesting U.S. country-of-origin labeling (COOL)

We explain the interplay of law and economics in the successful WTO challenge by Canada of U.S. mandatory country-of-origin labeling (COOL) measures for beef and pork, which hinged on origin of livestock used in U.S. meat production. Canada mounted a successful legal and economic strategy to convince WTO adjudicating bodies that the United States had violated specific WTO provisions. Canada's economic evidence shows that through costs of segregation the COOL measure harmed the competitive position of Canadian cattle and hogs in the U.S. market. Economic evidence was built into the strategy and cited by the WTO Panels in support of their legal findings that the COOL measure violated U.S. obligations under WTO agreements. Canada was awarded rights to more than one billion Canadian dollars in retaliation and the United States responded by eliminating the offending COOL measure. The COOL case demonstrates how economic and econometric evidence can be used in complex dispute settlement proceedings dealing with technical trade barriers. Economics is especially valuable in the initial stage of framing the effects at issue, in the intermediate stages of documenting empirical causation and in the final stage of litigation, which was to calculate and defend the amount of retaliation.     

An Analysis of Removal of Agricultural Trade Barriers between the United States and Canada with Emphasis on the Southeast

A four-region, 23-commodity small world agricultural trade liberalization model within the SWOPSIM framework is used to measure the impact of tariff removal between the United States and Canada. The tariffs are simply defined as negative import subsidy equivalents in the model and are then removed from the trade prices. The model recalculates domestic supply and demand levels in all regions, rebalancing world trade, production, consumption and prices. In summary, the impacts of the Canada-U.S. Trade Agreement on selected commodity groups are significant. Canadian imports of beef and veal, poultry meat, soybean oil and fresh strawberries increase. Furthermore, the results indicate larger trade flows for selected products and declines in producer and consumer prices in Canada, U.S. and Southeast regions. Since the U.S. share of Canadian agricultural imports averaged 60% in the 1980s, the impact of trade liberalization will be greater in Canada in selected commodities than in the U. S. or the southeastern region, and Canadian dependence on the U.S. market will be increasing in the future. The tariff phaseout, together with a reduction in nontariff barriers and harmonizing of domestic agricultural policies, will create more export opportunities in selected commodities for both the United States and Canada, and will create the world's largest free trade market.     

AN ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF NON-RESIDENT HUNTING AND GUIDING IN THE EAST KOOTENAY1

Guiding is an industry closely linked to ranching in Western Canada. In the more remote areas where guiding is a significant activity, agriculture is often depressed. Such complementary non-farm sources of income are attracting increasing attention as a means of mitigating the "farm problem" in these situations.
This study attempts an evaluation of the economic contribution of non-resident hunting and the associated guiding industry in a region of British Columbia where guiding is an important adjunct to low-income ranching. The net economic gain from non-resident hunting is calculated, as are the private profits of guiding. These appear surprisingly low, though there is wide variation in the profitability of guiding. Public administrative policies are probably responsible in part for the failure of this industry to rationalize itself and for underutilization of game resources.     

长江三角洲地区跨界水事纠纷协商机制的现状分析

长江三角洲地区跨界水事纠纷频繁发生,对社会稳定、经济发展造成了极大的影响。通过对长江三角洲地区跨界水事纠纷协商制度和协商个案的分析,得出长江三角洲地区现有跨界水事纠纷协商机制的主要内容和流程。该机制尚处于起步和发展阶段,需要在实践中不断改进和完善,最终建立科学的跨界水资源管理协商机制,创造和谐的水资源管理状态。     

加拿大水产养殖业发展研究

加拿大水产养殖业在推动加拿大经济发展、拉动国民就业等方面发挥了重要所用。论文通过对加拿大水产养殖业发展现状、区域分布、发展优势和挑战的研究分析,归纳出加拿大水产养殖发展特点、发展方向,认为只有综合考虑人类健康、环境保护和经济利益,三方面利益相结合,利用科学和技术创新,加强宏观管理,创造必要条件挖掘社会经济潜力,水产养殖业才能持续、健康发展。     

The Impacts on U.S. and Canadian Slaughter and Feeder Cattle Prices of a U.S. Import Tariff on Canadian Slaughter Cattle

On 30 June 1999, the U.S. Department of Commerce issued a preliminary ruling instructing the U.S. Customs Service to require cash deposits or bonds totaling 4.73% (later increased to 5.57%) of the value of imported Canadian slaughter cattle. In November 1999, the U.S. International Trade Commission issued its final ruling which rescinded the anti‐dumping tariff. If the tariff had been permanently imposed, it would have affected import quantities of Canadian slaughter cattle and U.S. and Canadian slaughter and feeder cattle prices. Excess supply, import demand and price transmission elasticities are estimated and used within a comparative statics framework to estimate the impacts of the tariff had it been permanently imposed. We find that the effects of the tariff would have been small even if offsetting increases in carcass beef imports had not occurred. If offsetting carcass beef imports had occurred, any potential price gains could have been offset by increased logistical costs within the processing sector. Thus, this particular rent‐seeking activity would not have had a significant impact on U.S. cattle prices even if it had been permanently imposed. However, the tariff would have had significant negative effects on Canadian cattle prices. Le 30 juin 1999, le Département du Commerce des États‐Unis obligeait temporairement les douanes américaines à réclamer un dépôt ou une caution équivalant à 4,73 pour cent (portée à 5,57 pour cent par la suite) de la valeur des bovins de boucherie importés du Canada. En novembre de la même année, la Commission du commerce international américaine rendait sa décision finale, qui abrogeait le tarif anti‐dumping. Eût‐il été maintenu, pareil tarif aurait modifié les importations de bovins d'abattage canadiens, ce qui aurait affecté le prix des bovins d'engrais et d'abattage des deux pays. Les auteurs ont éalué l'offre excédentaire, la demande à l'importation et les élasticités du transfert des prix, puis ont recouru à un cadre de comparaison statique afin d'estimer les incidences du tarif, advenant le cas où il aurait étéétabli à demeure. On se rend compte qu'un tel tarif n'aurait guére eu de répercussions, même en freinant la hausse des importations de carcasses de büf. La majoration éventuelle des prix attribuable à la réduction des importations aurait pu être annulée par les coûts logistiques plus élevés des transformateurs. Par conséquent, cette activité de maximisation de la rente n'aurait pas eu d'impact significatif sur le prix des bovins aux États‐Unis. En revanche, l'imposition permanente du tarif aurait sensiblement diminué le prix des bovins au Canada.     

Rejecting New Technology: The Case of Genetically Modified Wheat

Canada has stringent regulations covering the release of new wheat varieties, but the United States has virtually no regulations in this area. Monsanto Co. developed genetically modified (GM) spring wheat for North America, and made a commitment to the U.S. industry to release this new technology simultaneously in both Canada and the United States, or not at all. The Canadian regulatory bias against new varieties acted as a veto against GM wheat and caused Monsanto to shelve the technology in both countries in 2004. Substantial economic rents were foregone in North America due to the rejection of this new technology.     

Induced innovation and spillover effects of US and Canadian research expenditures in Canadian agriculture

This study examines the induced innovation hypothesis (IIH) from 1958 to 2015 for two Canadian agriculture regions: Central Canada (the provinces of Ontario and Quebec) and Western Canada (the provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba). There is broadly consistent support for the IIH for Canadian agriculture, especially for Western Canadian agriculture. In addition, there is support for the notion that US, as well as Canadian, research expenditures are important to explain changes in the input ratio in Canadian agriculture in the long run. This indicates the existence of spillover effects from US agricultural research expenditures to Canadian agriculture.     

Canadian Exports of Livestock and Meat to the United States

Canadian exports of beef and live cattle to the United States have increased significantly since the late 1980s. Hog and pork exports have increased since the mid-1990s. Major factors affecting exports of beef, pork, cattle and hogs from Canada to the United States include the exchange rate, increased Canadian production, Canada-U.S. price differentials and trade liberalization under the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement of 1989. Increased Canadian exports have resulted in small but significant reductions in U.S. domestic prices of beef, pork and hogs.     

中国肉牛养殖效率差异及提升途径研究

[目的]环境条件差异是我国农牧业发展的客观存在,也是导致农牧业投入产出效率千差万别的重要原因,不考虑环境条件影响的效率分析容易模糊农户的投入产出效率,进而可能掩盖效率差异的原因。通过分析发现全国各地区肉牛养殖存在着客观差异,利用模型处理将各地区环境影响处理到最小,从而得到更为准确的肉牛养殖技术效率值。[方法]文章利用国家肉牛牦牛产业技术体系肉牛养殖投入产出监测数据,采用三阶段DEA模型方法,研究农户肉牛养殖投入产出效率差异及其改善途径。[结果]（1）肉牛养殖投入产出效率与环境条件有密切的关系;（2）剔除环境条件差异影响后,87.11%样本的肉牛养殖投入产出效率发生显著变化,其中47.42%效率下降,39.69%效率提升;（3）投入要素冗余问题是肉牛养殖效率差异的本质,投入要素的冗余在剔环境条件影响后也发生了显著变化,进一步的分析发现我国肉牛养殖劳动力冗余问题在西南产区与东北产区较严重,而饲料投入冗余则呈现牧区、农区、农牧交错带地区逐渐增加的状态。[结论]提升我国肉牛投入产出效率要注重改善饲料投入冗余问题,西南和东北产区还要注重改善劳动力投入冗余的问题。