The Labour Market Impact of the Working Families' Tax Credit

In October 1999, the working families' tax credit (WFTC) replaced family credit as the main package of in‐work support for families with children. Among a range of stated aims, the WFTC is intended to‘… improve work incentives, encouraging people without work to move into employment'. In this paper, we consider the impact of WFTC on hours and participation. To simulate labour supply responses, we use a discrete behavioural model of household labour supply with controls for fixed and childcare costs, and unobserved heterogeneity. In simulation, we experiment with a number of scenarios regarding the take‐up of the credit, entry wage level and hourly childcare price. We find participation rates among single mothers to increase by around 2.2 percentage points for the base‐case scenario, while for married women participation rates are modelled to fall. Our simulation results indicate a small increase in overall participation of around 30,000 individuals.     

Extensive and Intensive Margins of Labour Supply: Work and Working Hours in the US,the UK and France*

This paper provides a new analysis of the main stylised facts underlying the evolution of labour supply at the extensive and intensive margins in three countries: the United States, the United Kingdom and France. We propose a definition of the extensive and intensive margins corresponding respectively to the employment rate and to hours when employed. This definition is robust to the choice of the reference period and we develop a new statistical decomposition that provides bounds on changes at these margins. We focus on longer-run labour supply changes over the period 1977 to 2007 and abstract from the shorter-run impact of recessions. Examining secular changes over this period, we show that both margins matter in explaining changes in total hours. We then provide a detailed analysis across countries and across time by demographic type. Given the large systematic differences we uncover in the importance of these margins by age and gender, it is unlikely that a single explanation will suffice to account for the macroeconomic evolutions in the three countries.     

The Challenges for Labour Market Policy during the COVID-19 Pandemic*

The COVID-19 pandemic is having a dramatic economic impact in most countries. In the UK, it has led to sharp falls in labour demand in many sectors of the economy and to initial acute labour shortages in other sectors. Much more than in a typical downturn, the current crisis is not simply a general slowdown in economic activity but also a radical short-term shift in the mix of economic activities – of which an unknown, but possibly significant, amount will be persistent. The initial policy response has focused on cushioning the blow to families’ finances and allowing the majority of workers and firms to resume their original activities once the crisis subsides. These are crucial priorities. But there should also be a focus on reallocating some workers, either temporarily if working in shut-down sectors or permanently by facilitating transitions to sectors and jobs offering better prospects and facing labour shortages. The phasing-out of the furlough subsidies, which is projected to happen in Autumn 2020, brings this into even sharper focus since the alternative for many workers will be unemployment. Active labour market policy will need to be front and centre.     

Market quality changes in the London Stock Market

This paper examines the impact that the introduction of a closing call auction had on market quality at the London Stock Exchange. Using estimates from the partial adjustment with noise model of Amihud and Mendelson [Amihud, Y., Mendelson, H., 1987. Trading mechanisms and stock returns: An empirical investigation. Journal of Finance 42, 533–553] we show that opening and closing market quality improved for participating stocks. When we stratify our sample securities into five groups based on trading activity we find that the least active securities experience the greatest improvements to market quality. A control sample of stocks are not characterized by discernable changes to market quality.     

Employment Quota System and Labour Market Outcomes of Individuals with Disabilities: Empirical Evidence from South Korea

To date, only a few studies have attempted to evaluate the effectiveness of disability employment quota systems using structural changes in policies. This study exploits the structural changes in South Korea's disability employment quota system that took place in 2004 and 2006 to expand the current disability policy evaluation literature. We separate the effect of these changes in the quota system into their effect on the probability of labour force participation and their effect on the probability of employment (after controlling for selection into the labour market). We also study the extent to which the changes – which included increasing the number of employers covered by the quota system, the number of jobs available to individuals with disabilities and the financial incentives for employing individuals with disabilities – have affected job satisfaction among individuals with disabilities. Our results suggest that the changes in the quota system may have increased labour force participation but have had a limited positive impact on the probability of employment among people with disabilities in South Korea. Further, compulsory hiring and expanded opportunities have not substantially affected the level of job satisfaction observed among employees with disabilities relative to their non‐disabled counterparts.     

The Effect of Making a Voluntary Labour Market Programme Compulsory: Evidence from a UK Experiment

This paper investigates the effects on employment and benefit receipt of making a voluntary active labour market programme compulsory. This policy change, which targeted long‐term unemployed people over the age of 50, was piloted in a number of areas within the UK and evaluated by individual random assignment of the requirement to participate. The results show that mandating participation resulted in a sustained increase in employment and a corresponding reduction in benefit receipt. The results were driven at least in part by a deterrent effect.     

Medical Labour Supply and the Production of Healthcare

Medical labour markets are important because of their size and the importance of medical labour in the production of healthcare and in subsequent patient outcomes. We present a summary of important trends in the UK medical labour market, and we review the latest research on factors that determine medical labour supply and the impact of labour on patient outcomes. The topics examined include: the responsiveness of labour supply to changes in wages, regulation and other incentives; factors that determine the wide variation in physician practice and style; and the effect of teams and management quality on patient outcomes. This literature reveals that while labour supply is relatively unresponsive to changes in wages, medical personnel do react strongly to other incentives, even in the short run. This is likely to have consequences for the quality of care provided to patients. We set out a series of unanswered questions in the UK setting, including: the importance of non‐financial incentives in recruiting and retaining medical staff; how individuals can be incentivised to work in particular specialties and regions; and how medical teams can be best organised to improve care.     

The Employment and Earnings Gaps between Natives and Immigrants in the UK between 1981 and 2006

We exploit the sizeable and long Lifetime Labour Market Database (LLMDB) to estimate the immigrant–native employment gap across gender, across continents of nationality and across lengths of stay in the UK between 1981 and 2006. These estimates are a novel contribution, as estimates for men and women are scarce in the literature and estimates across immigrants’ origins and lengths of stay are as yet unavailable. Furthermore, we estimate the employment gap as the differential in the number of employed weeks in the year between immigrants and natives, which has not been done before – this contrasts with the employment probability gap usually estimated in the literature. We also estimate the immigrant–native earnings gap across gender, across the entire earnings distribution, across continents of nationality and across lengths of stay. Estimates across the earnings distribution are also a novel contribution, as these are also as yet unavailable in the literature. Our main conclusion is that both the immigrant–native employment and earnings gaps vary across gender, continents of nationality and lengths of stay. Immigrant women earn more than native women throughout the distribution. The earnings gap is positive throughout for females: smaller at the bottom, larger at the top and relatively constant in the middle of the distribution. In contrast, it increases monotonically across the distribution for males: it is negative at the bottom and positive at the top. In the main, immigrants from Africa, Asia and the Middle East, Central and South America, and Eastern Europe suffer larger employment and earnings penalties, which are reduced as their length of stay increases. In contrast, immigrants from North America have a more favourable labour market experience.     

Effects of Family Policy Reforms in Norway: Results from a Joint Labour Supply and Childcare Choice Microsimulation Analysis*

Mothers of pre‐school children represent one part of the population that might be able to increase its labour supply. We discuss the effects of family policy changes that encourage the labour supply of these mothers, such as childcare fee reductions and increased availability of centre‐based care. The effects of policy changes are described by using a joint labour supply and childcare choice decision model. Detailed empirical results are provided with respect to mothers' labour supply, families' childcare choices, public expenditures, and distributions of income and money metric utility.     

市场均衡就业区间与劳动市场运行特点的深层透视

市场经济条件下，厂商将其供给量调整到合理水平所需的费用可称为微观调节成本。由于存在这种特殊的经济运行费用，因而传统分析中宏观层面上的就业均衡点两侧便分别存在着“低位临界点”与“高位临界点”，这两点界定了一个“市场均衡就业区间”，社会就业一旦进入该区间，市场机制便不可能对其做出调节。     

The Impact of Children on Women's Paid Work*

This paper investigates how and when differences in work behaviour between men and women develop, focusing on the evolution of the gender gaps over the period of family development. The findings support the theory that gender differences in the formal labour market stem from the presence of children in the home and that childbirth and children entering school are critical times in women's employment. Births mark a dramatic decline in participation in work for women, while school entry is a time of considerable turnover in participation. The length of absence from work following a subsequent birth is closely related to whether the mother was in work between births, while maternity pay and leave entitlements appear to influence the precise timing of the return to work. In addition, a return to work following birth is often only temporary. The gradual decline in women's relative wages following the first birth appears to stem from the accumulation of several shorter periods of unusually low wage growth for women around the times of birth and school entry. There is also a sharp movement into part‐time work for women following childbirth and a transition towards non‐permanent positions and non‐supervisory roles at both critical points.     

The New Deal for Young People Five Years On*

The New Deal for Young People is the major welfare‐to‐work programme in the UK. It is a mandatory multistage policy targeted at 18‐ to 24‐year‐old unemployed people. This paper investigates the long‐term effectiveness of the programme in terms of enhancing the (re‐)employment probability of participating men. It exploits the eligibility rule to identify a suitable counterfactual relying upon a simple regression discontinuity design. The combination of job‐search assistance, training, wage subsidies and job experience enhances employability by about 4.6 per cent and this effect lasts over different cohorts.     

Facing the Age Wave and Economic Policy: Fixing Public Pension Systems with Healthcare in the Wings*

There are two overriding problems faced by ageing societies. One is the financing of public pension (social security in US terms) programmes. The other is paying for healthcare. This paper considers the healthcare issue briefly, emphasising that the issue arises primarily because of advances in medical technology. Better medical technology will improve healthcare in the future, but more advanced technologies also cost more. The focus of the rest of the paper is on the public pension problem. The emphasis is on the early retirement incentives inherent in the provisions of most public pension programmes around the world, the reduction in the labour force participation of older people caused by these incentives, and the large fiscal implication of the inducement of older people to leave the labour force. These results are based on the Gruber–Wise ongoing international social security comparison project.     

The retirement wealth of the baby boom generation

The paper compares the well-being of the baby boom generation (ages 40-55) in 2001 with the same age group in 1983. I find little evidence that their relative position deteriorated over the period. By some indicators, this generation has seen an improvement. In terms of income, the 40-55 age group was at about the same relative position in 2001 as in 1983. In terms of conventional wealth, there was some slippage over the period. In terms of mean augmented wealth (net worth plus pension and Social Security wealth), their relative position improved somewhat but in terms of median augmented wealth there was again some slippage.     

Equity Market Liberalization in Emerging Markets

Equity market liberalizations, if effective, lead to important changes in both the financial and real sectors as the economy becomes integrated into world capital markets. The study of market integration is complicated because one can liberalize in many ways and many countries have taken different routes. To study the effectiveness of particular liberalization policies, the sequencing of liberalizations, and the impact on the real economy, systematic methods must be developed to date the liberalization of emerging equity markets. We provide a synthesis of the current methods and show the impact of liberalization on the real sector.     

Ethnic Differences in Birth Outcomes in England*

This paper uses the Millennium Cohort Study to look at ethnic differences in birth outcomes for a cohort of English children born in 2000 and 2001. There is an increasingly large literature showing that longer gestation and higher birthweight are positively associated with cognitive and non‐cognitive outcomes later in life, so understanding sources of ethnic differences in these outcomes and identifying factors that may influence birth outcomes has a lot of potential policy interest. This paper shows that even after controlling for background characteristics in a number of ways, there still remain unexplained differences in both gestation and birthweight outcomes across broad ethnic groups. It also suggests, however, that there may be potential policy levers that could be used to narrow this ethnic gap in birth outcomes, such as reducing the proportion of underweight Asian mothers and overweight Black mothers and increasing ethnic minority attendance at antenatal classes.     

Commonality in Liquidity: Evidence from an Order-Driven Market Structure

Events such as the 1997 East Asian financial crisis indicate that individual firm liquidity is strongly influenced by marketwide factors. Previous market microstructure research, however, focuses almost exclusively on the firm‐specific attributes of liquidity. Our study follows the recent shift in emphasis toward commonality by examining systematic liquidity in an order‐driven market structure. Using data from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong, we show that commonality in liquidity includes both market and industry components, and is pervasive across size‐sorted portfolios. We also find a significant market and industry component in individual firms' order flow. In contrast to quote‐driven results, we do not find a positive relation between firm size and sensitivity to changes in marketwide bid‐ask spreads.