Can Good Apples Be Mixed with Bad Economics? A Mengerian Critique of the Alchian and Allen Theorem

Abstract . The Alchian and Allen Theorem has been a popular staple of many economics classes since Armen Alchian and William Allen first introduced it in their well‐known text University Economics. The Theorem says that the addition of the same fixed cost to two similar goods will result in an increase of demand for the higher‐priced, “higher‐quality” good relative to the lower‐quality item. Response to the Theorem ranges from an informal comment that it is a “parlor trick” to it being called the “Third Law of Demand.” We review some of the literature, and use Carl Menger's economic analysis to challenge the Theorem's validity. Based on Menger's analysis, we conclude that the Theorem is not, in fact, a theorem because it is does not describe a general case, but instead only applies in some cases, thereby becoming, at best, a special case of Menger's more general analysis. Further, we find evidence that Alchian and Allen themselves unwittingly contradict their own argument elsewhere in one of their texts.     

Multiple Testing for No Cointegration under Nonstationary Volatility

With cointegration tests often being oversized under time‐varying error variance, it is possible, if not likely, to confuse error variance non‐stationarity with cointegration. This paper takes an instrumental variable (IV) approach to establish individual‐unit test statistics for no cointegration that are robust to variance non‐stationarity. The sign of a fitted departure from long‐run equilibrium is used as an instrument when estimating an error‐correction model. The resulting IV‐based test is shown to follow a chi‐square limiting null distribution irrespective of the variance pattern of the data‐generating process. In spite of this, the test proposed here has, unlike previous work relying on instrumental variables, competitive local power against sequences of local alternatives in 1/T‐neighbourhoods of the null. The standard limiting null distribution motivates, using the single‐unit tests in a multiple testing approach for cointegration in multi‐country data sets by combining P‐values from individual units. Simulations suggest good performance of the single‐unit and multiple testing procedures under various plausible designs of cross‐sectional correlation and cross‐unit cointegration in the data. An application to the equilibrium relationship between short‐ and long‐term interest rates illustrates the dramatic differences between results of robust and non‐robust tests.     

Structural VARs and noninvertible macroeconomic models

We resume the line of research pioneered by C. A. Sims and Zha (Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2006, 10, 231–272) and make two novel contributions. First, we provide a formal treatment of partial fundamentalness—that is, the idea that a structural vector autoregression (VAR) can recover, either exactly or with good approximation, a single shock or a subset of shocks, even when the underlying model is nonfundamental. In particular, we extend the measure of partial fundamentalness proposed by Sims and Zha to the finite‐order case and study the implications of partial fundamentalness for impulse‐response and variance‐decomposition analysis. Second, we present an application where we validate a theory of news shocks and find it to be in line with the empirical evidence.     

EVALUATING REAL‐TIME VAR FORECASTS WITH AN INFORMATIVE DEMOCRATIC PRIOR

This paper proposes Bayesian forecasting in a vector autoregression using a democratic prior. This prior is chosen to match the predictions of survey respondents. In particular, the unconditional mean for each series in the vector autoregression is centered around long‐horizon survey forecasts. Heavy shrinkage toward the democratic prior is found to give good real‐time predictions of a range of macroeconomic variables, as these survey projections are good at quickly capturing endpoint shifts. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

‘The City of Our Dream’: Owambe Urbanism and Low‐income Women's Resistance in Ibadan,Nigeria

Ibadan, Nigeria, has been an outlier in the ranking of world‐class cities. But in the past seven years, amidst the circulating Africa Rising narrative, Ibadan has embarked on what I call an Afropolitan Imagineering project of owambe urbanism. Afropolitan Imagineering refers to the production of new images/narratives of Africa and Africans as world‐class and cosmopolitan. Owambe urbanism is a spatio‐temporal neoliberal project concerning destination, arrival and place‐making, which promises a shared and happy future for all urban dwellers. I argue that this promise of happiness is challenged by low‐income women who are cognizant that a shared and happy future is impossible when little effort is made to address social inequality in the present. They thus refuse to be ‘good’ citizens and invoke an alternative urban futurity through their embodied and imagined resistance.     

When Do Outsider CEOs Generate Strategic Change? The Enabling Role of Corporate Stability

When academic researchers, business commentators, and boards of directors have debated the merits of hiring new CEOs from outside the firm, the implicit or explicit assumption typically made is that outsider CEOs will provide an advantage in achieving strategic change. In this study, we challenge this assumption by employing a duality perspective on stability/change, and we provide an original conceptual framework to posit that it is the presence of corporate stability (ordinary succession, a long‐tenured predecessor CEO, and good firm performance) that allows outsider CEOs to generate a greater degree of post‐succession strategic change. We use extensive longitudinal data from US airline and chemical industries between 1972 and 2010 to test our hypotheses, and we discuss how our supportive findings challenge long‐standing assumptions regarding the outsider succession–strategic change relationship, and we advocate embracing the non‐intiutive notion that stable (unstable) conditions can be enablers (barriers) of strategic change for outsider CEOs.     

Beware of ‘Good’ Outliers and Overoptimistic Conclusions*

The main goal of this paper is to warn practitioners of the danger of neglecting outliers in regression analysis, in particular, good leverage points (i.e. points lying close to the regression hyperplane but outlying in the x‐dimension). While the types of outliers which do influence regression estimates (vertical outliers and bad leverage points) have been extensively investigated, good leverage points have been largely ignored, probably because they do not affect the estimated regression parameters. However, their effect on inference is far from negligible. We propose a step‐by‐step procedure to identify and treat all types of outliers. The paper of Persson and Tabellini [American Economic Review (2004) Vol. 94, pp. 25–46] linking the degree of proportionality of an electoral system to the size of government is discussed to illustrate how the choice of a measure and the existence of atypical observations may substantially influence results.     

Enough is Enough: Cognitive Antecedents of Workaholism and Its Aftermath

Workaholism is commonly conceptualized as a compulsive inner drive to work excessively hard. This study investigates to what extent rigid personal beliefs—i.e., performance‐based self‐esteem (self‐esteem that is contingent upon good performance) and an enough continuation rule (continuing with work until one feels one has done enough)—contribute to exhaustion through workaholism. To examine these potential antecedents and consequences of workaholism, data of a two‐wave longitudinal survey study with a six‐month time interval was used (n = 191). Results of structural equation modeling provided support for our hypotheses. Taken together, our findings show that rigid personal beliefs at T1 predicted primarily working compulsively at T2, and working compulsively at T1 influenced exhaustion at T2. Moreover, reciprocal relationships were found between applying the enough continuation rule and working compulsively, and between working compulsively and exhaustion. These results suggest partial mediation from cognitive antecedents (personal beliefs) through workaholism to exhaustion. In practical terms, the results indicate that cognitive antecedents may provide a good starting point for interventions for preventing exhaustion and workaholism. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Diagnostic Tests of Cross‐section Independence for Limited Dependent Variable Panel Data Models*

This article considers the problem of testing for cross‐section independence in limited dependent variable panel data models. It derives a Lagrangian multiplier (LM) test and shows that in terms of generalized residuals of Gourieroux et al. (1987) it reduces to the LM test of Breusch and Pagan (1980) . Because of the tendency of the LM test to over‐reject in panels with large N (cross‐section dimension), we also consider the application of the cross‐section dependence test (CD) proposed by Pesaran (2004) . In Monte Carlo experiments it emerges that for most combinations of N and T the CD test is correctly sized, whereas the validity of the LM test requires T (time series dimension) to be quite large relative to N. We illustrate the cross‐sectional independence tests with an application to a probit panel data model of roll‐call votes in the US Congress and find that the votes display a significant degree of cross‐section dependence.     

Retracted: Leadership behaviors that really count in an organization's performance in the middle east: The case of Dubai

Retraction: The following article from the Journal of Leadership Studies entitled “Leadership behaviors that really count in an organization's performance in the Middle East: The case of Dubai” by Mohamed Behery, published on July 28, 2008, on Wiley Online Library ( wileyonlinelibrary.com ) and in Volume 2, Issue 2 (August 2008), has been retracted by agreement between the author, the Editor, Jake Burdick, and Wiley Periodicals, Inc. The Editorial Office of the Journal of Leadership Studies has concluded that the article did not contain precise references to support direct quotations and significant paraphrases from other articles. Although the Editorial Office felt a retraction was necessary, it wishes to note its belief that the author acted in good faith and that Mr. Behery has not been accused of any misconduct with respect to the contents of the article. Jeremy Moreland Editor‐in‐Chief, Journal of Leadership Studies Jake Burdick Editor, Journal of Leadership Studies     

Coherent forecasting for count time series using Box–Jenkins's AR(p) model

During the last three decades, integer‐valued autoregressive process of order p [or INAR(p)] based on different operators have been proposed as a natural, intuitive and maybe efficient model for integer‐valued time‐series data. However, this literature is surprisingly mute on the usefulness of the standard AR(p) process, which is otherwise meant for continuous‐valued time‐series data. In this paper, we attempt to explore the usefulness of the standard AR(p) model for obtaining coherent forecasting from integer‐valued time series. First, some advantages of this standard Box–Jenkins's type AR(p) process are discussed. We then carry out our some simulation experiments, which show the adequacy of the proposed method over the available alternatives. Our simulation results indicate that even when samples are generated from INAR(p) process, Box–Jenkins's model performs as good as the INAR(p) processes especially with respect to mean forecast. Two real data sets have been employed to study the expediency of the standard AR(p) model for integer‐valued time‐series data.     

Investment decisions and managerial compensation design in the presence of product market rivalry

We consider an economy where firms operate in an imperfectly competitive industry and mutually affect each others’ investment opportunities. Each firm is assumed to face a mutually exclusive choice of investing in either a short‐ or a long‐term project. For example, firm i's commitment to a short‐term project cuts into firm j's market in the short‐term but frees‐up firm j's long‐term market, and vice versa. Our results show that, even in the absence of an owner–manager conflict, the owner anticipates the product market rivalry and optimally compensates their managers with short‐ as well as long‐term compensation. Although the optimal compensation design induces myopic investment decisions, it is shown to be in the owners’ best interest. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The ethics of ‘going green’: the corporate social responsibility debate

A significant proportion of authors of green business texts proposes that managers should be the instigators and guardians of a societal change towards sustainable development. There is the notion of managerial duty towards the environment. This paper attempts to unravel the implications of this call for managerial eco‐heroism. The reason that this unravelling is important is that there is a growing body of evidence suggesting that win–win situations – the ‘low hanging fruit’ – are progressively becoming less apparent for many firms. This implies a conflict between profitability and environmental performance. This translates into a (perhaps familiar) scenario for business: one greener option is more expensive, and the financial gains associated with it are insufficient to justify it on the grounds of profitability – ‘going green’ then means losing potential profits. A neoclassical and a socio‐economic perspective are provided as foundations for managerial reasoning. Even though the corporate social responsibility debate is not resolved, it is nonetheless of importance, not least because environmentally proactive managers might intend to increase social well‐being but actually reduce it through their green decision‐making. Thus the real‐world applicability of the positions adopted by the opposing philosophical schools is analysed. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

Half‐panel jackknife fixed‐effects estimation of linear panels with weakly exogenous regressors

This paper considers estimation and inference in linear panel regression models with lagged dependent variables and/or other weakly exogenous regressors when N (the cross‐section dimension) is large relative to T (the time series dimension). It allows for fixed and time effects (FE‐TE) and derives a general formula for the bias of the FE‐TE estimator which generalizes the well‐known Nickell bias formula derived for the pure autoregressive dynamic panel data models. It shows that in the presence of weakly exogenous regressors inference based on the FE‐TE estimator will result in size distortions unless N/T is sufficiently small. To deal with the bias and size distortion of the FE‐TE estimator the use of a half‐panel jackknife FE‐TE estimator is considered and its asymptotic distribution is derived. It is shown that the bias of the half‐panel jackknife FE‐TE estimator is of order T^?2, and for valid inference it is only required that N/T³→0, as N,T→∞ jointly. Extension to unbalanced panel data models is also provided. The theoretical results are illustrated with Monte Carlo evidence. It is shown that the FE‐TE estimator can suffer from large size distortions when N>T, with the half‐panel jackknife FE‐TE estimator showing little size distortions. The use of half‐panel jackknife FE‐TE estimator is illustrated with two empirical applications from the literature.     

Truncated Product Methods for Panel Unit Root Tests*

This paper proposes two new panel unit root tests based on Zaykin et al. (2002) ’s truncated product method. The first one assumes constant correlation between P‐values and the second one uses sieve bootstrap to allow for general forms of cross‐section dependence in the panel units. Monte Carlo simulation shows that both tests have reasonably good size and are powerful in cases of some very large P‐values. The proposed tests are applied to a panel of real GDP and inflation density forecasts, resulting in evidence that professional forecasters may not update their forecast precision in an optimal Bayesian way.     

Recognizing large donations to public goods: an experimental test

Private charities often publicise generous individual contributions or contributors, possibly to encourage others to give. In contrast, public good experiments used to study voluntary giving commonly tell participants only of total contributions. This paper reports an experimental test of the effect on contributions of supplying additional selective information. A control treatment is run that reveals only total contributions over ten one‐shot decision rounds. This is compared to a second treatment that also informs subjects of the maximum contribution made in their group after each round. In a third treatment, subjects are further given the opportunity to make costly rewards to the maximum contributor. Revealing generous contributions appears to raise average contributions slightly. Surprisingly, adding the ability to reward large contributors does little to generate further increases, though it significantly raises the variance of contributions. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The real problem: The deadly combination of psychologisation,scientism, and normative promotionalism takes strategic human resource management down a 30‐year dead end

This paper engages with Troth and Guest (2019) on psychology in HRM. I argue they misframe the central issue in debate. The real problem is not psychology per se but psychologisation—the drive to reduce explanation of macro‐level HRM outcomes to individual‐level psychological‐behavioural factors and individual differences. Accordingly, the most visible and harmful effects of psychologisation are in strategic HRM and the HRM‐performance literature but Troth and Guest's defence of psychology does not cover them. I use this response to re‐establish that it is psychologisation, not psychology per se, that is the critics' focal concern and describe how the three‐decade advance of psychologisation, along with scholastic scientism and normative promotionalism, have created severe theoretical and empirical problems in the high‐performance research programme and taken the strategic HRM field down a 30‐year dead‐end. Suggestions for a turn‐around are provided.     

Bounding endogenous regressor coefficients using moment inequalities and generalized instruments

The main approach to deal with regressor endogeneity is instrumental variable estimator (IVE), where an instrumental variable (IV) m is required to be uncorrelated to the regression model error term u (COR(m,u)=0) and correlated to the endogenous regressor. If COR(m,u)≠0 is likely, then m gets discarded. But even when COR(m,u)≠0, often one has a good idea on the sign of COR(m,u). This article shows how to make use of the sign information on COR(m,u) to obtain an one‐sided bound on the endogenous regressor coefficient, calling m a ‘generalized instrument’ or ‘generalized instrumental variable (GIV)’. If there are two GIV's m₁ and m₂, then a two‐sided bound or an improved one‐sided bound can be obtained. Our approach is simple, needing only IVE; no non‐parametrics, nor any ‘tuning constants’. Specifically, the usual IVE is carried out, and the only necessary modification is that the estimate for the endogenous regressor coefficient is interpreted as a lower/upper bound depending on the prior notion on the sign of COR(m,u) and some estimable moment. A real data application is done to Korean household data with two or more children to illustrate our approach for the issue of child quantity–quality trade‐off.     

Mortality Forecasting and Trend Shifts: an Application of the Lee–Carter Model to Swedish Mortality Data*

In this paper we examine how the Lee–Carter model fares with Swedish data for the period 1901–2001 and for segments of this period. We have choosen to censor ages less than age 40 as those ages only are of marginal interest to the forecast. At age 40 some 98 to 99 percent of the birth cohorts are survivors. In the study we only consider the unweighted K¹ estimates. The Lee–Carter model provides very good fits to the data. When splitting up the base period there seems to be an interaction beween the age and time components of the model. In order to deal with the different phases of falling mortality for males and females possibly one should choose the past 25 years as a base in the model. Selecting the base period is however a judgmental issue depending on the main focus of the forecast. Is it long‐term, short‐term or, as in Sweden, a combination of both.?