THE PETER PRINCIPLE: PERSONAL OR ORGANIZATIONAL INCOMPETENCE?

This article proposes that incompetence in management may not be explained so much by the ‘Peter Principle’, i.e. by terminal weaknesses of personnel in faulty promotion systems, as it is by the organizational climate in which managers perform, i.e. by outmoded supervisory styles and limiting structural relationships. This alternative explanation is supported by Townsend's popular book, Up the Organization,¹ where Theory X styles of leadership, in some combination with bureaucratic elements of structure, are seen as impairments in modern organizations. This contention argues that organizational change agents must operate in tandem upon perceptions and attitudes as well as structural properties to maintain effectiveness - embarking on either skill and sensitivity training alone or mandating authority and task changes is insufficient. In addition, leadership flexibility and structural variety must provide alternative options across different task units if both short-run efficiency and long-term relevance are to be generated for the organization. Finally, organization survival is viewed as a function of managerial performance as determined by structure, including the promotion system, and by level of humanism of the climate, especially motivational stimuli. Within all of this, managerial effectiveness is considered to be influenced by incumbent conceptualizations of goals and capacities of the organization and of his own ‘self’ within that system. Concepts of self, in turn, are determined by historical notions associated with work and authority, as well as by various socialization processes in the organization, e.g. training, super-vision and general psychological conditioning. Accordingly, the matrix design of organizations and the contingency theory of leadership are offered as vehicles for tentatively re-conceptualizing the nature and form of collective behavior. Matrix and contingency theories focus upon modern, complex organizational structures and varied superior-subordinate relationships rather than upon man's instrumental performance, as with the Peter Principle, in explaining managerial inadequacies.     

THE IMPACT OF LABOR MARKET REGULATION ON EMPLOYMENT IN LOW‐INCOME COUNTRIES: A META‐ANALYSIS

Controversy over labor market policy often centers on achieving a balance between preventing worker exploitation, and avoiding loss of productivity or employment through excessive regulation. Although the literature documenting the impact of labor market regulation on employment is extensive, there is a dearth of evidence on the impact of such policies in low‐income countries (LICs). Since it is easier for workers, especially women, to slip into the informal sector in LICs, regulations are likely to have stronger impacts on formal employment in these countries (but lower impacts on unemployment). We systematically reviewed available research from countries that are, or were until recently, LICs. Most studies document that more stringent labor regulations are associated with lower formal sector employment and higher informal sector employment. We also conducted a metaregression analysis of the impact of minimum wages on formal and informal employment. After controlling for publication bias, higher minimum wages are associated with lower formal employment and a higher share of informal workers.     

THE CASE FOR A COMMUNITY TRANSACTION ENGINE: GETTING COASE FOR THE TWENTY‐FIRST CENTURY

New types of marketplace are now becoming viable. They can slash transaction costs, bring new resources into the economy and expand economic opportunity. These markets can be grown by the private sector. But, to deliver their full potential, they need a change in the mindset of government.     

THE ECONOMICS OF CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY: A FIRM‐LEVEL PERSPECTIVE SURVEY

This paper analyzes the economics of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR), as a private response to market imperfections in order to satisfy social preferences. Depending on whether they affect regulation, competition or contracts, market imperfections driving CSR decisions are classified in three categories: public goods and bads and altruism; imperfect competition; and incomplete contracts. We successively present these drivers of CSR decisions and highlight the nature of incentives (external or internal) at work and the testable (and tested) hypotheses in the reviewed studies. We finally review the link between CSR and financial performance, as well as between CSR and social and environmental performance. A twofold discrepancy appears in the literature, opening future research paths: a disconnection between our understanding of CSR drivers and CSR impacts; and a knowledge gap between CSR financial and social consequences, the latter having received little attention.     

A THEORETICAL AND PRACTICAL PERSPECTIVE ON THE EQUITY RISK PREMIUM*

Abstract In historical perspective, equity returns have been higher than interest rates but have also varied a good deal more. However, the average excess return has been larger than what could be expected based on classical equilibrium theory: the equity risk premium (ERP) puzzle. This paper has two objectives. First, the paper presents a comprehensive overview of the vast literature developed aimed at adjusting theory and testing the robustness of the puzzle. Here we will show that the failure of theory to link asset prices to economics is mostly quantitative by nature and not qualitative (anymore). Second, beyond providing a survey of theory, we aim for a relevant practical angle as well. Our main contribution is that we spend time on why returns have been higher than investors reasonably could have expected. We present evidence that forecasts of equity returns can be enhanced by valuation models: low valuation levels (low price‐to‐earnings ratios) portend high subsequent returns. While conventional wisdom (several years ago) was to use historical returns to forecast future returns, a growing consensus now recognizes that the predictive power of valuation ratios is preferred. Finally we provide some practical implications based on this predictability. While the ERP is essentially a long‐term issue, the likelihood of a lower risk premium increases risk for many and means that short‐term volatility might not be neglected.     

THE CASE AGAINST MELIORISM: VEILED TRAGEDIES, OR WHEN COST–BENEFIT ANALYSIS IS IN PRINCIPLE IMPOSSIBLE

The philosophy of meliorism seeks to spread the cost of the tragedies of the few over the many, thus easing the suffering of the few, while hardly burdening the many. The problem with this is that such cost-spreading itself causes tragedies, except that the tragedies are veiled – they are not only unknown; they cannot, in principle, be known. Thus meliorism distributes not from the tragic few to the ordinary many, but from the visibly tragic few to another group of tragic few, the latter group unseen and unknown, hence unable to complain about this state of affairs.     

RISE OF THE THERAPEUTIC STATE: NEW CHALLENGES FOR TWENTY‐FIRST‐CENTURY MEDICINE

In recent history, the politics of health has drifted inexorably towards a paradigm in which it is the responsibility of the state rather than of individuals to manage their health. What were once considered private health matters for individuals are now attributed with society‐wide importance. This has given rise to a strident ‘therapeutic state’ which pays obsessive interest in its citizens’ eating, drinking, smoking, exercise and sexual habits. However, many of the therapeutic state's own recommendations are poorly evidenced and doctrinaire. The lack of accountability and adverse incentives which creeping state intrusiveness brings will ultimately disconnect the health system from the needs of citizens and treat their personal information with inexcusable carelessness.     

THE NEW LICENSING BILL: OVER‐REGULATING THE BRITISH PUB?

A rash of new youth-oriented pubs over-concentrated in city centres has led to drunken youths menacing our city streets, and to the decline of Britain's traditional pubs, the cornerstones of local communities. Far from addressing these problems, the Licensing Bill now before Parliament proposes much greater regulation which will increase costs, reduce pubs' ability to adapt, ban unlicensed live music and discriminate still further against community pubs.     

THE ECONOMIC SCIENCE FICTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE: A FREE‐MARKET PERSPECTIVE ON THE STERN REVIEW AND THE IPCC

The Stern Review and the IPCC believe that anthropogenic climate change is a serious global threat and demands an urgent response. Examining the IPCC's projections of future climate change and Stern's estimates of its costs from a free‐market perspective shows that they are based on flawed methodological assumptions and reflect an excessively optimistic approach to knowledge of the future. The foundations of reliable knowledge for a sound policy framework have not been put in place.     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RELATIVE RISK AVERSION AND THE LEVEL OF EDUCATION: A SURVEY AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE DEMAND FOR LIFE INSURANCE

The expected utility hypothesis has been widely used in the construction of economic models and numerous difficulties are encountered in attempting to take into account preferences toward risk in a real‐world setting. More recently, attention has focused on comparative studies in economics and business in an international framework and problems related to the hypothesis of relative risk aversion (RRA). One ambiguous hypothesis is the relationship between the level of RRA and the level of education, which has been found either positive or negative. From a causality point of view, it may be argued that investors with a high level of education are less risk averse, but it may also be argued that less risk‐averse individuals choose to pursue a higher level of education. The purpose of this paper is to survey the empirical literature on this subject. It provides evidence that risk aversion is negatively correlated with higher education and human development. The results have important implications for macroeconomic empirical studies and the demand for financial assets and more specifically on the demand for life insurance. Assuming the same degree of RRA for utility‐maximizing consumers should be limited to homogeneous samples.     

INTERFUEL SUBSTITUTION: A META‐ANALYSIS

Abstract This paper provides the first meta‐analysis of the interfuel substitutability literature. The sample includes 47 studies of interfuel substitution in the industrial sector, in manufacturing industry or manufacturing sub‐industries, or in the macro‐economy of a variety of developed and developing countries. Meta‐regressions are estimated for the six shadow elasticities of substitution between coal, oil, gas and electricity. I find that at the level of the industrial sector as a whole the oil–coal, oil–gas, oil–electricity and gas–electricity shadow elasticities of substitution are significantly greater than unity. The remaining elasticities – between coal and gas and coal and electricity – are insignificantly different from unity or zero due to their large standard errors. Substitution possibilities seem more constrained at the macro level and less constrained at lower levels of aggregation. Estimates of the elasticities of substitution from cross‐section regressions are generally largest whereas fixed effects panel estimates are intermediate in magnitude, and time‐series estimates are mostly much smaller. In order to obtain more precise and less biased estimates of long‐run elasticities of substitution, there is a need for additional primary studies using large samples and/or the between estimator which econometric research suggests is likely to provide the best estimates of long‐run elasticities.     

CORRUPTION'S DIRECT EFFECTS ON PER‐CAPITA INCOME GROWTH: A META‐ANALYSIS

Corruption is a symptom of weak institutional quality and could have potentially adverse effects on economic growth. However, heterogeneity in reported findings makes it difficult to synthesize the evidence base with a view to test competing hypotheses and/or support evidence‐based policy and practice. To address this issue, we have extracted 327 estimates of corruption's direct effect on per‐capita GDP growth from 29 primary studies, following a peer‐reviewed and pre‐published systematic review protocol. Precision‐effect and funnel asymmetry tests indicate that corruption has a negative effect on per‐capita GDP growth after controlling for publication selection bias and within‐study dependence. However, multivariate meta‐regression analysis results indicate that the overall effect is not robust to inclusion of moderating variables through a general‐to‐specific procedure for model specification. We report that the marginal effect of corruption on per‐capita GDP growth is more adverse when the primary study estimates relate to long‐run growth, are based on low‐income‐country data only, and extracted from journal papers. The effect is less adverse in studies that use the International Country Risk Guide corruption perceptions index and in those reporting estimates from two‐stage least‐squares estimations.     

ECONOMETRICS FOR GRUMBLERS: A NEW LOOK AT THE LITERATURE ON CROSS‐COUNTRY GROWTH EMPIRICS

Abstract Since the seminal contribution of N. Gregory Mankiw, David Romer and David N. Weil in 1992 the growth empirics literature has used increasingly sophisticated methods to select relevant growth determinants in estimating cross‐section growth regressions. The vast majority of empirical approaches, however, limit cross‐country heterogeneity in production technology to the specification of total factor productivity, the ‘measure of our ignorance’. In this survey, we present two general empirical frameworks for cross‐country growth and productivity analysis and demonstrate that they encompass the various approaches in the growth empirics literature of the past two decades. We then develop our central argument, that cross‐country heterogeneity in the impact of observables and unobservables on output as well as the time‐series properties of the data are important for reliable empirical analysis.     

FREEDOM AND ITS ENEMIES: PROBLEMS OF RE‐ESTABLISHING FREEDOM AND DEMOCRACY IN THE EUROPEAN CONTEXT1

The experience of living in non‐free communist societies may have made the people of Eastern Europe particularly sensitive to the weakening and ultimately the loss of freedom. Many see such a process currently taking place in a Europe that increasingly places group rights and entitlements above the rights of individuals. Such a process has been driven by a growing belief in the inevitability of market failure, a desire to use the state for personal gain and a fear of openness, freedom and competition.     

DEMAND,CUSTOMER BASE‐LINE AND DEMAND RESPONSE IN THE ELECTRICITY MARKET: A SURVEY

The increasing use of demand‐side management, as a tool to reliably meet electricity demands at peak time, has stimulated interest among researchers, consumers and producer organiza‐tions, managers, regulators and policymakers. This research reviews the growing literature on models which are used to study demand, customer base‐line (CBL) and demand response in the electricity market. After characterizing the general demand models, the CBL, based on which the demand response models are studied, is reviewed. Given the experience gained from the review and existing conditions, the study combines an appropriate model for each case for a possible application to the electricity market; moreover, it discusses the implications of the results. In the literature, these aspects are studied independently. The main contribution of this survey is attributed to the treatment of the three issues as sequentially interdependent. The review is expected to enhance the understanding of the demand, CBL and demand response in the electricity market and their relationships. The objective is conducted through a combination of demand and supply side managements in order to reduce demand through different demand response programs during peak times. This enables electricity suppliers to save costly electricity generation and at the same time reduce energy vulnerability.     

CURRENT GLOBAL WARMING ALARMISM AND THE MONT PELERIN SOCIETY'S LONG‐TERM AGENDA1

In a speech to the Mont Pelerin Society, the President of the Czech Republic argued that environmentalism, and climate alarmism in particular, is a vehicle for advocating, drafting and implementing large‐scale government intervention and an unprecedented suppression of human freedom.     

THE DISTANCE PUZZLE AND LOW‐INCOME COUNTRIES: AN UPDATE

The ‘distance effect' measuring the elasticity of trade flows to distance has been found to be rising since the early 1970s in a host of studies based on the gravity model, leading observers to call it the ‘distance puzzle'. However, this puzzle is regularly challenged by new developments in the specification of the gravity equation or in its estimations. We propose an original survey on the existing methods used to quantify the distance puzzle – basically the computation of an average distance of trade, a meta‐analysis on existing gravity papers and the implementation of recent econometric developments, all on a well‐specified gravity equation both in cross‐section and panel data. We apply all these methods to a unique large database (124 countries from 1970 to 2006). It appears that if all these new developments can change the amplitude of the increase in the trade elasticity to distance, none solve the distance puzzle. We confirm the existence of this puzzle and identify that it only applies to low‐income countries which exhibit a significant rising distance effect on their trade of around 18% between 1970 and 2006 while the distance ‘puzzle' for trade within richer countries disappears.     

THE SEVENTH‐CENTURY ISLAMIC GOLD STANDARD

Monetary systems are catalysts for economic, social and political progress. The interdependence between monetary, economic and political order is illustrated by currency competition between the Byzantine and Muslim empires in the seventh century. The evolution of an Islamic gold standard demonstrates that Byzantine and Muslim ruling circles were conversant with the dynamics of currency competition. In keeping with the theory of currency competition, the creation of the Muslim gold standard marked the beginning of a rapid economic outperformance by the Islamic empire.