THE LABOR MARKET CONSEQUENCES OF TEENAGE CHILDBEARING

This paper provides estimates of the impact of an unanticipated child during adolescence on labor supply and earnings using data for women who gave birth between 1976 and 2015 drawn from 1990 and 2000 censuses and the American Community Surveys. Twins at first birth are used as an instrument to avoid the problems of fertility endogeneity. Estimates from our instrumental variable models indicate that the arrival of a second‐born twin had severe economic consequences for adolescent women over most of our data. (JEL J13, J31, J16)     

THE DISTRIBUTIONAL CONSEQUENCES DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF RUSSIA'S TRANSITION

We consider the distributional consequences at a national level in Russia during the initial phase of market reforms between the mid-1980s and the early 1990s. Although the incomes of many individuals changed favourably under the reforms during this period, average real household per capita income declined between 1985 and 1992. In particular during the first year of major reform in 1992 households at the lower end of the income distribution seemed to incur the largest fall in income. As a consequence there was a rise in measured income inequality. The Gini coefficient, estimated by various researchers to have been around 27 percent between the late 1960s and early 1990s. we estimate to have increased to 32.2 percent by the end of 1992. We also estimate that poverty increased with 18.5 percent of the population on incomes lying below the official subsistence level at the end of 1992.     

FROM MARGINALISM TO INSTITUTIONALISM: DISTRIBUTIONAL CONSEQUENCES OF THE TRANSFORMATION OF THE FINNISH PENSION REGIME

This study offers a longitudinal scrutiny of the development of pension policy in Finland and evaluates the impacts that the shift from a "marginal" to an "institutional" welfare state imposed on economic well-being among the elderly. The data that are used stem from household budget surveys from 1966 to 1990. During that period, average income of the elderly doubled in real terms, legislated pensions replaced other sources of income, the traditional cycle of poverty, where the elderly had a higher risk of poverty, disappeared, and income differences between the elderly diminished.     

THE EFFECTS OF THE 1978 PREGNANCY DISCRIMINATION ACT ON FEMALE LABOR SUPPLY*

This article analyzes the effects of the 1978 Pregnancy Discrimination Act (PDA) on the labor force participation rates of married women by estimating a dynamic model of labor force participation. Results show that the PDA increased the labor force participation rate of pregnant women by 8.2 percentage points, of women with a child less than one year old by 3.4 percentage points, and of women with older children by 1.5 percentage points. Counterfactual policy simulations show that the provision of unpaid leave will increase the labor force participation rate of women with older children by an additional 3.7 percentage points.     

THE DISTRIBUTIONAL CONSEQUENCES OF GOVERNMENT SPENDING AND TAXATION IN THE U.S., 1989 AND 2000

We assess the effects of government expenditures and taxation on household economic well-being in the United States in 1989 and 2000. Net government expenditure is estimated as the difference between government expenditures incurred on behalf of the household sector—transfers and public consumption—and the taxes paid by that sector. We incorporate the estimates of net government expenditures into a wealth-adjusted measure of income. We find that overall inequality in our income measure is considerably reduced by net government expenditures. Results from decomposition analysis show that the inequality-reducing effect of net government expenditures owed more to expenditures than to taxes.     

THE EFFECT OF MATERNAL EMPLOYMENT AND CHILD CARE ON CHILDREN'S COGNITIVE DEVELOPMENT*

This article develops and estimates a dynamic model of employment and child care decisions of women after childbirth to evaluate the effects of these choices on children's cognitive ability. We use data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to estimate it. Results indicate that the effects of maternal employment and child care on children's ability are negative and sizable. Having a mother that works full‐time and uses child care during one year is associated with a reduction in ability test scores of approximately 1.8% (0.13 standard deviations). We assess the impact of policies related to parental leave and child care on children's outcomes.     

劳动力流动对城市劳动力市场的影响

本文使用2005年1%人口抽样调查数据,考察了在我国大中城市中,劳动力流动对本地劳动者就业率和工资的影响。我们发现,外来劳动力对城市本地劳动力的就业率和工资均具有统计上显著的负向作用,但是影响的规模非常小。对于全部教育组平均而言,外来劳动力每增加10%,城市本地劳动力的就业率下降0.3%,工资下降0.65%;对于中低教育水平(高中及以下)的城市本地劳动力而言,外来劳动力的影响程度相对高一些,但是仍然不算大。另外,我们发现,外来劳动力对本地职工工资的影响,要大于对就业率的影响,说明城市本地劳动力对于外来劳动力存在有限的反应,主要体现在降低保留工资,而非放弃工作机会。     

THE DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS OF THE 1969–75 INFLATION ON HOLDINGS OF HOUSEHOLD WEALTH IN THE UNITED STATES*

Using a simple simulation model, this paper assesses the impact of relative movements in asset prices on the distribution of wealth during the 1969–75 period. Because of the strong negative correlation between wealth level and the ratio of debt to wealth, this particular inflation induced a substantial drop in the overall level of wealth inequality. Moreover, comparing the portfolios of different demographic groups, we found that middle-aged households gained relatively to younger and older ones, married couples gained relatively to singles, whites gained relatively to non-whites, and home-owners gained relatively to renters. The biggest gainers from this inflation were home-owners with large mortgages and the biggest losers the large stock holders.     

THE INFLATION AND SUPPLY SIDE CONSEQUENCES OF DEMAND SIDE SHOCKS*

This paper outlines a small general equilibrium model derived under the assumptions of imperfect competition and non-constant returns to scale Cobb-Douglas technology. The model is used to simulate the short-run supply side effects of a demand shock. The simulation results reveal that demand shocks lower prices and result in positive supply side effects, which in turn strengthen the positive demand side effects on unemployment.     

FIRM HETEROGENEITY AND THE LABOR MARKET EFFECTS OF TRADE LIBERALIZATION*

This article develops a model that incorporates workers' fair wage preferences into a general equilibrium framework with heterogeneous firms. In a setting where the wage considered to be fair by workers depends on the productivity of the firm they are working in, we study the determinants of profits, involuntary unemployment and within‐group wage inequality. We use this model to investigate the effects of globalization, thereby pointing to distributional conflicts that have so far not been accounted for: a simultaneous increase of average profits and involuntary unemployment as well as a surge in within‐group wage inequality.     

LABOR MARKET IMPACTS OF SMOKING REGULATIONS ON THE RESTAURANT INDUSTRY

This paper examines the impact of smoking regulations on restaurant employment in West Virginia, a state with a high rate of smoking prevalence. Using a confidential establishment‐level dataset, our results suggest that smoking bans reduced restaurant employment by between 0.7 and 1.5 workers, depending on model specification. We find that smoking restrictions have heterogeneous impacts across establishments, with the largest impacts on mid‐sized establishments, defined as those with 10–29 employees. Our results also suggest that the impact of smoking restrictions was larger in counties with higher rates of smoking prevalence. (JEL L51, D78, H0)     

人口老龄化对中国劳动力供给的影响

本文描述了我国劳动力供给的总体数量以及变化趋势,并从劳动参与率、城乡结构、人力资本三方面进行考察,探讨人口老龄化对于劳动力供给的影响。我国劳动参与率还存在较大增长空间,将会是未来劳动力供给的重要增长点;农村剩余劳动力存量仍看似充足,但其老龄化情况较严重,难以维持当前农民工向城市转移的速度;另外我国年轻劳动力的教育程度和人力资本已有显著提升。因此虽然人口老龄化已经对我国劳动力供给产生了一定负面影响,但由于人口和劳动力的变化是一个长期过程,并不会给经济发展带来突发的、灾难性的冲击。     

THE EFFECTS OF 1996 FARM LEGISLATION ON FEED AND FOOD GRAINS

The 1996 Federal Agricultural Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act of 1996 has been portrayed as a radical departure from the farm policies of the past 60 years. FAIR brought sweeping institutional changes to the basic price and income support programs, many of which had been in place since the 1930s. Close analysis reveals that many of the reforms of the FAIR Act are less revolutionary innovations and more continuations of reforms that began with the 1985 farm legislation and were extended by the 1990 farm bill. Nor should one believe that the changes will result, as some suggest, in large changes in crop acreages or have large effects on the year-to-year variability offarm revenues for these crops. In both cases, the changes in policies may be substantive, but their effective consequences are modest.     

IMPACT OF CHILD QUALITY ON EARNINGS: THE PRODUCTIVITY-OF-SCHOOLING HYPOTHESIS

This paper investigates the relationship between average earnings, education (measured by years of schooling), and rates of return to education for major racial/ethnic groups in the United States. It considers the effect of including previously omitted "productivity-of-schooling" (also referred to here as "child quality") variables. An upward-sloping average education, rate-of-return-to-education profile exists for His-panics, blacks, and whites. Productivity-of-schooling (i.e., child quality) measures– including family size, family composition, ability, and parental inputs–significantly affect earnings and rates of return to education. The results here are consistent with Chiswick (1988). Conditions within the family play a larger role in determining the value of education for minority males than for white males, a conclusion of obvious interest to policymakers.