基于Eviews的广西票据贴现利率形成因素研究

目前,中国人民银行对票据贴现业务实行在不低于再贴现利率的基础上,由市场自由决定票据贴现利率的政策.随着利率市场化的深入,各金融机构对票据贴现利率逐步试行在上海银行间同业拆放利率(shibor)基础上加点报价.本文采用计量经济学的研究方法,对广西商业银行票据贴现利率形成因素进行研究,发现3个月Shibor与票据信用风险状况是票据贴现利率的决定因素,并提出了完善票据贴现利率形成机制的政策建议.     

商业银行票据贴现利率的市场化转型——以Shibor为基准的定价模型研究

中国人民银行规定商业银行实行基于再贴现率加点生成贴现利率的票据定价模式。在中国票据市场快速发展过程中,由于货币政策调整和利率市场化进程等因素,使得票据贴现利率波动频繁并逐步显现出基于再贴现利率基准定价模式的缺陷,主要包括贴现利率存在跌破再贴现利率的背离现象、贴现利率定价模式未体现票据市场化程度、再贴现利率的货币传导功能逐步弱化等。本文提出票据贴现利率采取基于Shibor加点差的定价模式具有资金成本依据和契合票据业务特点等方面的优势,并具有推进利率市场化、沟通不同金融市场联系和促进货币政策传导等作用。     

当前票据市场业务快速发展的特点、成因及规范建议

2012年年初以来,大连市票据市场交易活跃,银行承兑汇票签发量增加较多,贴现、转贴现业务同比增长较快,票据融资占各项贷款的比重同比明显提升。票据业务近期发展较快,既有该项业务本身具有比较优势的原因,也是当前流动性充裕和银企双方经营调整与博弈的结果。在市场快速发展的同时,如何从统计角度体现票据融资对实体经济支持的有效性、不放松票据真实性审核力度,以及完善银行票据业务内控机制等问题仍不容忽视,为此,文章就进一步规范和推动票据市场健康发展提出相关政策建议。     

票据市场利率体系及其与银行间货币市场整体利率的关系

我国的商业汇票利率体系主要由承兑费率、贴现利率、转贴现利率和再贴现利率构成。其中作为银行间市场业务的票据转贴现，其利率已实现市场化。在监管部门加大力度规范会计科目核算、严查逃避信贷规模的票据业务后，买断性日趋明显，其利率更多受到信贷规模影响，与其它银行间货币市场利率产生了一定背离；回购式转贴现业务则逐步脱离规模互转方式，近期呈现了较强的资金业务特性，利率水平逐步接轨其它银行间货币市场利率。     

加快推行电子票据防范票据交易风险

近年来,我国银行承兑汇票规模保持了较快增长,票据的融资作用已不容小觑,但另一方面,票据案件也出现增多趋势。文章分析了票据案件的表现形式及危害性,指出票据案件的易发,既有票据具有广泛流通的金融工具属性的原因,也有缺乏规范化的市场交易机制的问题。对此,文章从加快推进电子票据、扩大交易主体、构建全国性票据市场、完善票据业务制度等方面,提出防范票据交易风险的相关政策建议。     

Price Discovery in the Treasury‐Bill When‐Issued Market

When‐issued (i.e., forward) trading in T‐bills yet to be auctioned provides a unique environment for examining price discovery. Because T‐bills are auctioned in a sealed‐bid process, when‐issued traders cannot observe the spot market price. Yet the forward price must ultimately converge on the auction outcome price. Our results indicate that traders in the when‐issued market “discover” the ultimate auction price. Little evidence is found that standard order flow variables contribute to price discovery. Instead, the ability to observe a few trades with relatively small volume in the when‐issued market is sufficient to discover the auction price resulting from the sealed‐bid process.     

央票发行对债券收益率影响的实证分析

文章通过对于央票招标日各期限央票、国债、金融债二级市场收益率变动特点的描述性统计,以及央票发行量对债券收益率影响的计量分析,实证考察了央票发行对债券市场收益率的影响效应。结果显示,央票招标日债券市场收益率波动性小于日常水平,且二级市场收益率与央票发行利率差值保持在合理波动范围内,体现了货币政策稳定利率的意图。     

The stochastic properties of term structure movements

The aim of this paper is to identify a stationary statistical model for Treasury bill discount changes. We find that the sample variance of discount changes are non-stationary over short differencing intervals but stabilize as the intervals increase to quarterly or semi-annual periods. This result has important implications for pricing options and for analyzing the predictive properties of forward rates. We show that the stochastic process structure leads to a downward revision in estimates of forward rate predictive power.     

END‐OF‐DAY PRICING IN THE U.S. TREASURY MARKET: A COMPARISON OF GovPX AND THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK

We compare end‐of‐day indicative U.S. Treasury prices from GovPX and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY). We find that the two sources rarely quote identical prices, and differences are not simply due to noise or rounding. The average bid price differential is 2 cents for notes and bonds, but it is only ¹/₁₀ of 1 cent for bills. Bid‐ask spreads in both sources appear to be largely artificial and contain limited information. Finally, we find that the end‐of‐day indicative FRBNY bid prices are closer to true intraday GovPX market quotes than end‐of‐day indicative quotes provided by GovPX itself.     

我国发展融资性票据的探讨

本文对当前我国票据市场状况做了整体的研究分析,认为我国票据市场中实质上存在融资性票据。在我国允许发行流通融资性票据的风险是可控的,对解决企业融资困境、完善信用体系、推动票据市场和商业银行业务发展具有重要意义。同时本文对比世界其他发达货币市场融资性票据及票据市场发展情况,找出了制约我国发展融资性票据的因素,并就我国如何发展融资性票据提出了较为具体的政策建议。     

2011年中国票据市场发展回顾与2012年展望

2011年,中国票据市场保持平稳发展,票据承兑与贴现交易相对活跃;票据市场利率震荡上行至历史高位后小幅回落;监管部门出台多项措施,引导票据业务健康发展。但同时,票据业务波动性大和金融机构合规经营等问题仍值得关注。展望2012年,在货币政策保持稳健与适时适度微调的格局下,票据贴现余额将保持总体平稳运行;存款准备金计缴新规将使银行承兑汇票业务出现调整;随着票据利率的回落,利率风险有所增加;票据市场各项业务运作将更趋规范、合规。     

我国商业银行票据市场的现状及发展战略研究

票据业务以其较高的流动性和稳定的收益性,成为近年来我国各商业银行重点发展的业务品种,票据市场也因此成为货币市场的重要组成部分.本文分析了我国商业银行票据市场发展的现状,指出其具有缺乏正确的市场定位、企业信用状况低下、经营模式落后、缺乏全国统一的商业票据市场、商业票据的真实性查询困难以及发行融资性票据面临法律障碍等问题.在此基础上,从战略层面探讨了我国商业银行票据市场发展的目标定位和阶段安排;并着重指出商业银行应在改革开放和可持续发展的指导思想下,转变观念,开拓市场,为发展融资性票据做好理论、政策、管理和业务培训方面的准备.     

量增价跌,服务实体经济能力进一步提升——2019年票据市场运行回顾与展望

2019年,票据规模继续扩大,服务实体经济能力进一步增强;票据市场利率持续下行,有效降低实体经济融资成本;票据业务进一步向经济发达地区和高新产业集中,创新产品运行良好。展望2020年,随着票据市场基础设施的不断完善和相关制度的建立健全,票据的功能定位更趋明确,票据市场环境将继续优化,其支持实体经济发展的能力和效率将进一步提升。     

How to Discount Cashflows with Time-Varying Expected Returns

While many studies document that the market risk premium is predictable and that betas are not constant, the dividend discount model ignores time‐varying risk premiums and betas. We develop a model to consistently value cashflows with changing risk‐free rates, predictable risk premiums, and conditional betas in the context of a conditional CAPM. Practical valuation is accomplished with an analytic term structure of discount rates, with different discount rates applied to expected cashflows at different horizons. Using constant discount rates can produce large misvaluations, which, in portfolio data, are mostly driven at short horizons by market risk premiums and at long horizons by time variation in risk‐free rates and factor loadings.     

DISPOSITION EFFECT AND PUBLIC SECONDARY EQUITY OFFERINGS

Shareholders selling shares in public pure‐secondary equity offerings are affected by the disposition effect and tend to sell past winners. Selling shares in these offerings is associated with significant indirect offer costs. On average, shares are offered at a 5.5% discount from the market price. Moreover, shares of offering firms are about 8% underpriced. Offer discounts and underpricing are positively related to the proxy for the disposition effect. Our findings are consistent with the proposition that the disposition effect increases the supply of winning stocks and depresses their prices.     

Structural changes,bid–ask spread composition and tick size in inter-bank futures trading

This paper studies a period containing three major structural changes, which constitute a natural experiment in the NYSE.Euronext-LIFFE European short-term interest rate (STIR) futures market. These changes comprise (1) a 50% reduction in minimum tick size for the most heavily traded contract, (2) European Monetary Union and (3) the transition from open outcry to electronic trading. We analyse a number of microstructure features of the four largest European interest rate futures contracts throughout this period. In particular, we focus on bid–ask spread composition using a recent model which is appropriate for this market structure. Our analysis identifies the tick size as the largest bid–ask spread component in almost every instance, which suggests that participants in this STIR future market might benefit from a reduction in minimum tick sizes.     

Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A General Equilibrium Exploration

Engel and West (2005) show that the observed near random‐walk behavior of nominal exchange rates is an equilibrium outcome of a partial equilibrium asset approach when economic fundamentals follow exogenous first‐order integrated processes and the discount factor approaches one. In this paper, I argue that the unit market discount factor creates a theoretical trade‐off within a two‐country general equilibrium model. The unit discount factor generates near random‐walk nominal exchange rates, but it counterfactually implies perfect consumption risk sharing and flat money demand. Bayesian posterior simulation exercises, based on post‐Bretton Woods data from Canada and the United States, reveal difficulties in reconciling the equilibrium random‐walk proposition within the canonical model; in particular, the market discount factor is identified as being much smaller than one. A relative money demand shock is identified as the main driver of nominal exchange rates.     

Money Funds or Markets? Valuing Intermediary Services

Recent market developments, such as on-line trading of Treasury securities and the reduction of the minimum Treasury bill denomination to $1,000, facilitate creation of a viable alternative to U.S. Treasury money funds for investors. Comparison of a direct investment in Treasury bills to U.S. Treasury money funds shows that money fund intermediary services such as check writing, telephone exchange privileges, payroll and automatic transfers, retirement plans, and minimum initial and subsequent purchases are worth an estimated 43 basis points per year, and investors pay an additional 11 basis points for active portfolio management. An analysis of fund net cash flows shows evidence consistent with arbitrage activity between money funds and the direct investment in Treasury bills, especially for investors with few ties to the money fund manager.     

The realized forward term premium in the repo market

Repurchase agreements for general-collateral government debt measure the short-term cost of riskless borrowing, thus avoiding issues relating to specialness of Treasury offerings or irregular term-to-maturity in the Treasury bill market. The spread between reverse and repo rates has previously been ignored by researchers who find that the pure expectation hypothesis either holds at this extremely short end of the term structure or that observed deviations from the expectations hypothesis are not economically significant. This paper shows that the time-varying realized forward premium at the short-end of the yield curve is consistently positive when accounting for the spread between repurchase and reverse repurchase agreement rates.