British government and popular understanding of inflation in the mid‐1970s

In Britain in the 1970s inflation rose to historically unprecedented peace‐time levels, and became the central issue of economic policy‐making. We know a great deal about the elite policy debates on the significance of this inflation, and the arguments about how to reduce it, but we know far less about how inflation was understood by the population at large, and how those understandings were shaped. This article explores the evidence on popular understanding, especially analysing the material gathered by the Counter‐Inflation Publicity Unit, created in the summer of 1975. Along with other evidence, this material is used to explore how far the Labour government's economic propaganda can be said to have influenced popular opinion on both the significance and causes of inflation. The evidence supports the argument that the belief that trade unions were the main culprit for inflation was reinforced and entrenched by this propaganda, with important unintended consequences for the arguments about policy that followed the ‘Winter of Discontent’ of 1978/9.     

Jokowi's First Year: A Weak President Caught between Reform and Oligarchic Politics

When President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) took office in October 2014, he promised to usher in a new style of politics, generating optimism among many Indonesians that his government would enthusiastically promote reform. Yet Jokowi has since placed greater value on realpolitik than on reform, as evidenced by his choice of cabinet members, his response to the controversy surrounding senior police officer Budi Gunawan, and his handling of attempts by the police and others to weaken Indonesia's respected Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK). This article shows that Jokowi failed to deliver on his promises of reform largely owing to a combination of personal and external factors. He failed to show leadership on anticorruption and human-rights issues, for example—in part because he prefers economic development over democratic reform, but also because he is not immune to the oligarchic politics that dominate Indonesia's political life and promote the interests of Indonesia's elite.     

人民币汇率对我国通胀的影响

当一个国家或地区的宏观经济处于良好发展态势时,通常该国家的汇率比较稳定,通胀率在政府可调控的范围之内,利率较低,股市收益率较高,即这几项指标也处于良性发展态势;而当一个国家或地区的宏观经济发展态势不佳时,这几项指标则相应地处于下滑态势。本文试图从重新认识人民币汇率及通胀,探索出人民币汇率与我国通胀的关系。     

The Political Processes of the Distinctive Multinational Factory Regime and Recent Strikes in Vietnam

Abstract

The period from the mid-2000s to the early 2010s is noteworthy in the history of industrial relations in Vietnam. On the one hand, the number of strikes increased, reaching its peak in 2011. On the other hand, there were much stronger signs that both the management and the workers were not satisfied with their “factory regime”, as a stable and predictable process to resolve labor disputes was yet to emerge. In addition to the previous economic and political explanations focused on macroeconomic conditions and political institutional arrangements at the national level, this article attempts to ethnographically explore and describe the political-economic conditions of both the workers and the managements on a micro level to answer the following questions: Why do some workers have to resort to uncomfortable and troublesome means such as wildcat strikes despite their better working conditions compared to those of workers in other factories? In contrast, what are the reasons that some factories do not offer their workers particularly favorable working conditions and wages and can still avoid strikes? While answering these questions, this article attempts to address the necessity of recognizing the distinctive political structure and processes in the multinational factory regime and to suggest ways of establishing more stable and productive industrial relations more suitable to the particularity of the factory regime.     

近20年我国国防支出与经济增长关系分析

以1997年到2017年间国防支出与GDP的数据为基础，对近20年来我国国防支出与经济增长的关系进行了探讨，并进一步地分析了在军民融合过程中经济建设与国防建设之间的发展关系。首先，通过描述性统计、相关性分析、回归分析等方法，初步探讨了国防支出与GDP之间的关系；然后基于VAR模型进行了相关的计算和分析验证；最后综合这些方法，对结果进行了较为系统全面的讨论。结果显示，近20年来，我国国防支出与经济增长基本呈正相关关系，经济增长与国防支出能够相互促进，呈现一种良性的关系。长期来看，不仅经济的增长有利于军费投入的提高，反过来国防支出也可以调节经济总量，促进现有资源的充分利用，从而促进经济增长。这从侧面反映出近年来我国国防建设与经济建设、安全与发展能够实现统筹兼顾、军民融合总体发展成效显著，建设军民一体化的国家战略协调能力正在不断提高。     

Ready to stop: socioeconomic status and the fertility transition in Stockholm, 1878–1926

The western fertility decline is arguably the most significant demographic change to have occurred in the past 200 years, yet its causes and processes are still shrouded in ambiguity due to a lack of individual‐level longitudinal data. A growing body of research has helped improve our understanding of the decline's causes by examining the development of socioeconomic differences in fertility using historical micro‐data, but these have largely only considered rural areas where fertility was generally slower to decline. This article contributes to the literature by utilizing individual‐level data from the Roteman Database for Stockholm, Sweden between 1878 and 1926 to examine the association of socioeconomic status and fertility and the adoption of stopping behaviour during the city's transition. Using piecewise constant hazard models and logistic regression, we find that a clear class pattern arises in which the elite were early practitioners of fertility control, followed by the working classes. As the transition unfolded, socioeconomic differences in stopping behaviour disappeared and overall fertility differentials were also minimized, both of them being consistent with patterns observed in rural populations. The implications of these findings for major explanations of the decline are discussed in the concluding section.     

浅析城市政体理论的发展与运用

城市的发展早已经不仅仅是物质层面、经济层面上的问题。随着城市规模的不断扩大和城市人群的日趋多元化,更多的城市问题被理解成为社会问题、政治问题。城市研究者把眼光转向城市内部,通过观察城市政府的政治行为,探索社会经济活动中政治结构的存在和发展规律。城市政体理论(UrbanRegimeTheory)即为探索该问题的理论流派。本文意在介绍这一思潮的基本思想、理论根源和发展历程,以及其在中国语境下的解读和运用。     

“Weak” Trade,European States in the International Arms 1920–1937: The impact of external threats,market forces,and domestic constraints

Abstract

This article analyses the small- and medium-size arms trade behaviour of nine “weak” (that is, limited political and economic influence) European states in the interwar period: Belgium, Czechoslovakia, Finland, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland. In particular, the significance of external threats, market forces and domestic constraints is assessed for these states' military trade. Firstly, the hypothesis that there might be fewer domestic constraints on the military trade behaviour of these states was not supported by the analysis. The increased military spending of the 1930s seemed to benefit the domestic producers. Secondly, most of these countries were dependent on their aggregate military trade, especially military exports. Thirdly, the hypothesis that the differences between these states might be explained by geographical, strategic or economic factors was found too simplistic. Only proximate groupings could be developed based on various types of categories. Fourthly, “weak” states were found to benefit from the intense international political and economic competition of the 1930s, enabling the pursuit of new military export markets amidst increasing threats.     

Towards a new Bradshaw? Economic statistics and the British state in the 1950s and 1960s

This article outlines the attempts of British central government to react to the perceived inadequacy of official economic statistics. A huge amount of work went into this project, the main aim of which was to speed up the production of statistics so that the economy could be analysed in more detail, and thus better managed. If this was to work, more data was required on the labour market, on productivity, on production, and on the interlinkages between those indicators. British official statistics clearly were more comprehensive and more detailed at the end of this period than they had been at the start. Even so, the effort was usually thought to have been a failure by the early 1970s. More detail took time to produce; it was difficult to recruit the necessary staff; successive administrative reorganizations also absorbed energies. The devolved informality of British government hampered the emergence of an overall picture. Businesses and trade unions resisted attempts to collect more data, especially when it showed them in an unflattering light. Above all, the elite, specialist, and technical nature of the reform process meant that very little political and popular pressure built up to force through further changes.     

Earnings Management in Response to the Introduction of the Australian Gold Tax*

Earnings from gold mining in Australia remained tax‐exempt for almost seven decades until January 1, 1991. In the early 1980s, rapid economic prosperity induced by escalated gold prices brought the Australian gold‐mining industry under intense political scrutiny. Using a variant of the modified Jones model, this paper provides evidence of significant downward earnings management by Australian gold‐mining firms, which is consistent with their attempts to mitigate political costs during the period from June 1985 to May 1988. In contrast, test of earnings management over a similar period in a control sample of Canadian gold‐mining firms produced insignificant results. Further, empirical results are robust to several sensitivity tests performed. During the period from June 1988 to December 1990, the Australian firms were found to have engaged in economic earnings management. This is consistent with the sample firms' incentive of maximizing economic earnings immediately prior to the introduction of income tax on gold mining. The findings of this study help to understand the impact of earnings management on the efficient resource allocation in an economy. They also contribute toward understanding the linkage between regulation of accounting for special purposes and general‐purpose financial reporting.     

New revisionists and the Keynesian era in British economic policy

This article surveys the literature, which has argued that post‐1945 British economic policy should not be described as Keynesian. It attempts to apply explicit definitions of ‘Keynesian', ‘influence', and ‘the Treasury view'. It suggests that in post‐1945 monetary and fiscal policies, in the treatment of the balance of payments, and in attitudes to public expenditure, strong Keynesian influences can be detected. The idea of a ‘Keynesian era' should not be rejected and it is hinted that the failure to accelerate the growth rate, rather than the external dimension, caused the Keynesian era to unravel.     

Improving The Management of Indonesia's National Parks: Lessons from two Case Studies

Although Indonesia has placed a considerable percentage of its land and coastal areas under protection, It has to date failed to provide adequate management, particularly of its national parks. This is due to a number of factors, both organisational and financial. Using studies of recent attempts to introduce more effective management in two major Indonesian national parks, this article looks at what kinds of changes are needed to strengthen the present park management system.     

(In)equality and the South African Constitution

ABSTRACT

Does the South African Constitution constrain or empower government, courts and citizens in addressing systemic social and economic inequalities? This article argues that the Constitution is explicitly ‘transformative’, but is an enabling document, providing ‘scaffolding’ for political and legal activities. It is government, strong institutions and civil society that are ultimately responsible for securing its equality aspirations. Here the Constitution admits of different understandings of equality and different economic and social policy choices. This article identifies these contested meanings of equality and suggests that a liberal egalitarian/social democratic version is dominant in policy choices and the jurisprudence of the Constitutional Court. It illustrates this with reference to the Court’s jurisprudence on equality, and suggests that more radical and transformative interpretations remain possible. However, it concludes that we cannot escape politics, the need for good policy choices and effective implementation and enforcement.     

The two sterling crises of 1964: a reply to Oliver

Oliver's Comment on my recent article challenges my argument that there were two sterling crises in the autumn of 1964. He argues that there was one only and that the Labour government mishandled it. Oliver has, however, reached these conclusions on the basis of a partial reading of the evidence and a failure to grasp how the changing international context imposed constraints on national economic sovereignty.     

通用机场建设管理法规现状调查与分析

通用机场是通用航空的重要载体,对拉动地区经济发展,提升政府的公共服务水平,加强区域之间的交流合作,优化国家民航运输体系有着重要意义.近年来,随着国家对通用航空业发展的推进,通用机场建设处于难得的历史机遇期.因此,深刻认识当前我国通用机场建设管理的阶段特点,准确把握政策导向,是深度落实"放管服"改革,实现通用机场有序发展的一项重要课题.     

精英身份与农民创业：趋名还是逐利？

农村精英群体因具有独特的优异特质和能力素养成为农村创业的主力军，但是农村精英能否通过创业实现"名利双收"？学术界尚无定论。文章利用上海财经大学"千村调查"的数据得到以下研究结论：①农村精英的创业并非纯粹的"逐利"行为，而是追随内在的"趋名"导向，农村精英创业主要是为了实现家庭社会地位的提高、村落人缘水平的改善、村落话语权的增加等非经济目标，这种"趋名"导向使得创业者配置于经济目标的注意力资源相对不足，进而制约了其"逐利"目标的实现。②随着家庭经济资本的增加，农村创业者的精英身份对经济目标的注意力配置不足问题将得到有效缓解，即丰裕的家庭经济资本将弱化精英身份对实现经济目标的制约效应；同时，家庭经济资本的增加将进一步强化精英身份对非经济目标的提升作用。③随着外部制度环境的完善，精英身份对农民创业经济目标的注意力配置不足问题将得到有效缓解，即完善的外部制度环境将弱化精英身份对实现经济目标的制约效应；同时，外部制度环境的完善将强化农村精英群体对非经济目标的追求。本文基于创业动机理论与注意力基础观分析了精英身份在农民创业过程中的经济效应与非经济效应，探讨了农村精英群体在"趋名"与"逐利"之间的权衡与取舍，并将家庭经济资本与外部制度环境纳入研究框架，构建了一个较为系统的农民创业模型，丰富了农民创业理论的研究范畴。     

Iceland,OEEC and the trade liberalisation of the 1950s

Abstract

While Western Europe was experiencing a trade boom and adopting a more liberal economic framework during the 1950s, Iceland was moving in the opposite direction. External trade was historically at its lowest point and its external economic policy was characterized by extreme caution towards European cooperation and integration. Iceland's commitment to a more open economy and closer economic integration with Europe was at best half-hearted as her participation in the OEEC's Trade Liberalisation Program (TLP) clearly demonstrates. This article examines Iceland's external economic relations between 1945 and 1960 with particular emphasis on the TLP. It seeks to explain why Iceland, so highly dependent on strong ties with the outside world, chose to cling to protectionism longer than most Western European countries. It is argued that the external shock caused by the war, creating an artificial economy internally and the overvaluation of the krona, made adjustment to peacetime circumstances extremely difficult. The task was made harder by a public policy prioritizing on growth and investment rather than balanced macroeconomic management. Last but not least, Iceland's commercial interests were not easily reconcilable with those of the other members of the OEEC because of her special pattern of trade.     

Building an alternative economic network? Consumer cooperation in Scotland from the 1870s to the 1960s†

There is growing interest in the ways in which, and the values according to which, economic activity is undertaken. For instance, mutual ownership has been identified as one means of helping to ‘redeem’ capitalism. This article engages with such issues by examining aspects of the behaviour of consumer cooperative societies in Scotland from the 1870s to the 1960s. It starts by discussing whether cooperatives represent a means of conceptualizing and undertaking economic activity that provides an alternative to the paradigm of investor‐led (neo)liberal capitalism. From this, and an outline history of consumer cooperatives in Scotland, it identifies two variables—dividend on purchases and funds for education—as proxies for the values underpinning cooperatives’ economic behaviour. Analysis of these variables indicates the existence of distinct cultures of cooperation, notably in the Glasgow and Edinburgh areas. The article concludes by offering two ‘lessons from history’ for those interested in alternative economic networks. The first is that cooperation can, and has, conceptualized and sustained an alternative to the dominant (neo)liberal economic paradigm. The second is that the scaling‐up of such voluntaristic economic thought and behaviour is unlikely to present a macro‐level challenge to it.     

Rating the UK: the British government's sovereign credit ratings, 1976–8

The UK received its first sovereign credit ratings in 1978. Despite having required financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund only 18 months earlier, the British government managed to secure ‘triple‐A’ ratings from both Standard and Poor's and Moody's. Both assessments of creditworthiness reflected improving economic conditions but also British efforts to influence the sovereign ratings process. The Bank of England and the Treasury sought guidance from American investment banks to prepare for the ratings process and then controlled the flow of information available to the rating agencies accordingly, stressing the strengths of the national economy and downplaying the weaknesses. The British government subsequently launched its first bond issue in the New York market to high levels of investor demand. Consideration of these achievements complements the historiography concerning Britain's economic fortunes in the late 1970s. Scrutiny of events also offers a rare glimpse into the confidential sovereign ratings process. Both agencies relied on a combination of quantitative and qualitative evaluations of the UK. In addition, this article highlights the existence of a unique period in the history of sovereign credit ratings. From 1974 to 1985, the ratings industry enjoyed a cautious revival focused principally on ‘triple‐A’ borrowers.