巴曙松：2011年宏观金融政策与市场展望

2011年宏观政策力度将会参照经济增长的波动趋势、CPI水平、海内外低利率金融市场条件以及成熟国家的经济复苏程度等相机抉择,动态调整。一种较为普遍的观点是强调目前市场对可能的通胀压力估计不足,包括劳动力成本上升带来的物价压力、     

LABOUR SUPPLY ESTIMATION AND PUBLIC POLICY

Abstract. Economists devote considerable energies towards refining their econometric techniques to overcome difficulties connected with conducting empirical research. Despite advances in technique. it is not clear whether further refinement in this direction is worthwhile for policy purposes. It may be that no further amount of statistical adjustment of inadequate data will increase understanding, and that better data is simply necessary to add to our knowledge. But rarely is sufficient credit paid to new forms of data. In short, econometric technique is emphasized to the neglect of data innovation, as if new data were merely lying about waiting for an ingenious suggestion for use. This paper surveys advances of the last twenty five years in estimating labour supply for policy purposes with a view towards appreciating the relative contribution of both improvements in econometric technique as well as developments of new data.
After briefly detailing the key parameters which economists have sought to estimate, we describe the early 'first generation' research (circa 1970), which is plagued by problems of unobservable variables, measurement errors, truncation and selectivity bias, and non linear budget constraints. 'Second generation' research constitute attempts to resolve one or more of these difficulties, and the respective contribution of econometric technique and new data is acknowledged and assessed, including the contribution of data generated by large scale social experiments in which participants are randomly assigned to different guaranteed income plans and their labour supply behaviour measured.     

ADVERTISING'S ELUSIVE ECONOMIC RATIONALE: PUBLIC POLICY AND TAXATION

Advertising and its effects have been debated for well over a century. In the last few decades a generally sceptical view of the benefits of advertising has been overturned by a series of academic advances in economics that detail a variety of ways in which advertising may affect the economy and society. This academic work has however been paralleled by a growing popular and political opposition to advertising and its social effects. In this paper, the positive economic case for advertising is challenged by an assessment of the main channels of its influence and by a review of the associated empirical findings on its economic and wider impact. A policy response of limiting the tax deductibility of business advertising is explored.     

CAPITALISM,SOCIALISM AND CALCULATION

The merits and demerits of what we call ‘capitalism’ have been a source of much attention since Adam Smith wrote his seminal treatise on the salutary effects of free commerce and before. We consider the criticisms of the capitalist system as stated most prominently by Karl Marx, and we evaluate Marx's proposed solution to the evils of capitalism – specifically, socialism. We also explore the contributions of Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich Hayek to the debate about whether Marx's proposed alternative was really an alternative. Mises and Hayek provide powerful critiques of Marx's socialist vision by addressing the problem of economic calculation and the inability of central authorities to acquire knowledge diffused and distributed across an entire society. We question whether Marx offered a solution and then consider more recent attacks on capitalism and its alleged destruction of cultural capital. The theoretical contributions of Mises and Hayek are supported by recent empirical contributions suggesting that liberal political economy is robust.     

HAYEK, 'THE INTELLECTUALS AND SOCIALISM', AND WEIGHTED SCALE-FREE NETWORKS

In 1949, Hayek attributed the dominant position of planning in the West to the role of intellectuals, by which he meant 'professional second-hand dealers in ideas' such as journalists and commentators. Later in the twentieth century, we saw a similar phenomenon: particular social ideas, although frequently falsified empirically, have come to dominate through the efforts of intellectuals. This paper addresses how a small minority can set so decisively the terms of the debate. Hayek conjectured that this was the case, but did not specify the mechanism by which this can occur. Recent advances in network theory about how ideas can either spread across, or disappear in, a social network of individuals can explain this phenomenon. The implication of Hayek's insight, validated by modern network theory, is that think tanks should seek to influence 'professional second-hand dealers in ideas' rather than adopt the naïve democratic principle of trying to persuade individual voters.     

公共政策支持与深圳中小企业发展

中小企业众多且发展迅猛是深圳经济的重要特征,中小企业的迅速成长及其重要贡献已成为支撑深圳市国民经济和社会发展的基本力量。2000年以来,深圳中小企业工作成效显著,基本形成公共政策框架支持下的发展局面。一、中小企业发展基本情况(一)中小企业发展迅猛,地位重要,作用显著。建立特区以来,尤其是20世纪90年代以后,深圳市中小企业数量迅速增长,质量不断提高,贡献越来越大。仅2002年,全市就新增中小企业约1.8万家,到2002年底,注册企业约12.1万家,99.4%是中小企业,其中各类非公有制企业占80%左右。2002统计年度与2000年相比,限额以上中小工…     

A REVIEW OF THE BRITISH ACADEMY REPORT,PUNCHING OUR WEIGHT: THE HUMANITIES AND SOCIAL SCIENCES IN PUBLIC POLICY MAKING1

The report argues that policy‐makers fail to make effective use of the high quality research of UK academics in the humanities and social sciences. Yet greater co‐operation between the government and academia could undermine the independence of the latter by increasing the role of the state in the funding and direction of university research.     

RAPID GROWTH IN CHINA AND THE ASIAN ECONOMIES: SOME STYLISED FREE‐MARKET POLICY INFERENCES

The focus of this article is on the rapid growth of the Chinese economy and its ongoing interaction with the rest of Asia. It concludes that rapid growth in both Asia and China has resulted from free‐market‐oriented neoclassical economic policies and principles. Owing to its economy's size, its openness and the briskness of its GDP growth, China has influenced economies across the globe as well as the more proximate regional economy.     

INNOVATION POLICY: RATIONALES,LESSONS AND CHALLENGES

Innovation policy has emerged as a new field of economic policy during the last few decades. This paper explores the rationales for national innovation policies, as laid out in the existing literature on the subject, and considers what the lessons and challenges for theory and practice in this area are. Innovation policy attempts to influence innovation activity, often with the purpose of increasing economic growth. But it can also have more specific aims such as preventing unwarranted climate change, improving national health, and so on. The increasing attention given to innovation policy at the national level from the 1990s onwards went hand in hand with the development of a new, systemic understanding of innovation, which in a better way than before accounted for the ‘stylised facts’ of innovation activity as identified by empirical work. The system approach, as the paper shows, came to have a significant influence on the subsequent policy discourse. Drawing on recent advances in innovation-systems theory, a synthetic framework for the analysis of innovation policy is developed and used to highlight issues of particular relevance for the conduct of innovation policy and future scholarly work in this area.     

THEORY, POLICY AND ARROW

Books reviewed in this article:
George R. Feiwel (ed.) Arrow and the Ascent of the Modern Economic Theory.
George R. Feiwel (ed.) Arrow and the Foundations of the Theory of Economic Policy.     

SKILLS MISMATCH: CONCEPTS,MEASUREMENT AND POLICY APPROACHES

The term skills mismatch is very broad and can relate to many forms of labour market friction, including vertical mismatch, skill gaps, skill shortages, field of study (horizontal) mismatch and skill obsolescence. In this paper, we provide a clear overview of each concept and discuss the measurement and inter‐relatedness of different forms of mismatch. We present a comprehensive analysis of the current position of the literature on skills mismatch and highlight areas which are relatively underdeveloped and may warrant further research. Using data from the European Skills and Jobs Survey, we assess the incidence of various combinations of skills mismatch across the EU. Finally, we review the European Commission's country‐specific recommendations and find that skills mismatch, when referring to underutilized human capital in the form of overeducation and skills underutilization, receives little policy attention. In cases where skills mismatch forms part of policy recommendations, the policy advice is either vague or addresses the areas of mismatch for which there is the least available evidence.     

ENERGY EFFICIENCY: ECONOMICS AND POLICY

Abstract Energy efficiency and conservation are major factors in the reduction of the environmental impact of the energy sector, particularly with regard to climate change. Energy efficiency also contributes to reducing external dependence and vulnerabilities in the energy domain. In this paper, we discuss the factors that influence energy efficiency and conservation decisions, and the most appropriate policies for their promotion. Although not all public policies seem justified, we argue that specific policies for promoting energy conservation may be required, preferably based on economic instruments or on the provision of information to consumers.     

EMPLOYMENT OF OLDER WORKERS IN POLAND: ISSUES AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS1

The aim of this paper is to discuss barriers to the employment of older workers in Poland, where, due to various structural weaknesses and institutional arrangements, this problem has taken on a particularly acute seriousness. After analysing the causes of inactivity amongst older workers, the paper concludes by making policy recommendations.