The standard error of moving average smoothed equipercentile equating

A very important aspect of virtually any kind of systematic investigation is to be able to identify whether two entities are different, and, almost equivalently, whether they are the same. We need to be sure that measurements made at different time in different places by different experimenters are equivalent. To do this in the social sciences, the procedure of equating is necessary to be able to compare measurements made using different instruments. Small sample sizes can lead to apparent jaggedness in the formulae for equating two quantities, and some kind of smoothing procedure is frequently necessary when dealing with relatively small samples. A large-sample formula is developed for the standard error of moving average smoothed equipercentile equating on a single sample. An example is given of the application in equating two versions of a reading test, and the results are verified using a bootstrap procedure. The large sample formula gives a result that is close to the bootstrap procedure, except at very sparse frequencies.     

The lag relationship between wholesale and consumer prices: An application of the Hatanaka-Wallace procedure

This paper examines the lag distribution relating wholesale to consumer price changes. Sims' causality test indicates a one-sided lag structure. Following Hatanaka and Wallace, parameters of the lag distribution which can be estimated with relatively high precision are emphasized. Thus, our concern is with the sum of coefficients and the first four moments of the distribution. Short-run effects are estimated from lag moments using Pearson's method for equating moments. As a smoothness prior, a Beta distribution in the lag weights is suggested. Tests for bias due to missing components in the wholesale price index indicate little is lost because of misspecification.     

Accounting for Macroeconomic Influences on the Firm

Accounting based measures of exposure to macroeconomic shocks in exchange rates, interest rates and inflation do not capture the economic effects on the corporation of such shocks. We suggest measures that conceptually are coefficients in a multiple regression. The coefficients capture the sensitivity of a firm's real value or cash flows to unanticipated changes in each variable holding other variables constant. Information about such sensitivity coefficients would enable external stakeholders to distinguish between risk caused by firm-specific factors on the one hand and macroeconomic factors on the other. Scenario analysis is discussed as an alternative method for evaluating sensitivity coefficients. Information requirements for scenario and regression analysis are compared. Sensitivity coefficients can be used to identify a firm's functional currency or currency basket in which cash flows are independent of exchange rate changes. An example built on an actual case in Appendix demonstrates how insights can be gained from estimates of the suggested exposure measures.     

Hedonic price estimation for the Turkish bread wheat characteristics

This research has been made to assess the effects of the characteristics of bread wheat quality on the prices in the Turkish bread wheat market. A hedonic price model was used to analyze factors affecting the variability in bread wheat prices. Results indicate that prices received by bread wheat producers reflect the presence of basic quality characteristics of bread wheat. According to the research consequences, the hectoliter and sedimentation are the major factors that have the greatest effect and influence on Turkish bread wheat market in respect to the quality aspects. The study shows that the five regions in Turkey, which have been chosen as the research area and are important in bread wheat production, have differences in terms of bread wheat quality characteristics.     

Performance evaluation of the LDR and the PSH with forecast errors

Despite its ability to produce optimal solutions, the Linear Decision Rule (LDR) has not had a significant impact in the business environment. The Production Switching Heuristic (PSH), which has shown promising results when compared with the LDR, has experienced some business application because of its practicability and flexibility. During aggregate production planning, forecast errors are almost unavoidable, but the sensitivity of these models to such errors has not been thoroughly tested. Insufficient attention has been paid to truly understand the cost effects of forecast errors and other important interactions. The study investigates these issues by analyzing the results of 740 simulated problems.Using the famous “paint factory” cost data, the sensitivity of the LDR and the PSH are examined under various experimental conditions. The factors controlled at different levels are: forecast error mean, forecast error standard deviation, demand pattern, demand variability, and cost coefficients. The results show that 1) the PSH is generally less sensitive than the LDR to forecast errors, 2) both forecast error mean and standard deviation effectively measure the severity of forecast errors, and 3) underforecasts cause less cost penalty than overforecasts.The outcome of the study has helpful managerial implications for aggregate planning related decisionmaking. It suggests that the use of the PSH could result in potential cost savings even if significant forecast errors are envisioned as long as the period-to-period demand variability is not substantially high. Also, BIAS warrants more attention than MSE in evaluating the extent of forecast errors and their eventual cost impact on aggregate production planning.     

An overview of variance component estimation

Variance components estimation originated with estimating error variance in analysis of variance by equating error mean square to its expected value. This equating procedure was then extended to random effects models, first for balanced data (for which minimum variance properties were subsequently established) and later for unbalanced data. Unfortunately, this ANOVA methodology yields no optimum properties (other than unbiasedness) for estimation from unbalanced data. Today it is being replaced by maximum likelihood (ML) and restricted maximum likelihood (REML) based on normality assumptions and involving nonlinear equations that have to be solved numerically. There is also minimum norm quadratic unbiased estimation (MINQUE) which is closely related to REML but with fewer advantages.An invited paper for the ProbaStat '94 conference, Smolenice, Slovakia, May 30–June 3, 1994 Paper number BU-677 in the Biometrics Unit. Cornell University Ithaca NY     

Sources of asymmetric shocks: The exchange rate or other culprits?

We analyze and quantify the determinants of medium-term real exchange rate (RER) changes. First, we discuss the sources of asymmetric shocks causing exchange rate variability and the role of the RER as a shock absorber or generator. Secondly, we use data for 21 advanced and late transition economies to gauge the extent to which medium-term bilateral real exchange rate variability can be explained by various fundamental factors. Using Bayesian model averaging, we find that out of 22 factors under consideration, four types of dissimilarities within a given pair of economies are likely to be included in the true model: dissimilarities as regards (i) financial development, (ii) per capita income growth, (iii) central bank autonomy, and (iv) the structure of the economy. A regression based on these four factors indicates that they explain about 96 percent of the sample average level of three year RER variability. In the logic of our approach, the remaining part of the total variability represents an upper estimate of the influence of the foreign exchange market itself. For our sample, the contribution of the real exchange rate itself to asymmetric shocks therefore appears to be very low.     

黄土边坡稳定性分析的概率方法

黄土边坡稳定性分析是一个不确定性问题,包含很多不确定性因素,而且土的抗剪强度可变性很大。在进行了大量实验的前提下,估计抗剪强度的可变性,运用概率的方法进行边坡的稳定性分析,计算黄土边坡的失稳概率。     

How have the dependence structures between stock markets and economic factors changed during the COVID-19 pandemic?

This study investigates how the dependence structures between stock markets and economic factors have changed during the COVID-19 pandemic using the dynamic model averaging approach. A series of economic factors such as commodity markets, cryptocurrency, monetary policy, international capital flows, and market uncertainty indices are considered. We find that the importance of economic variables and the sign and size of their coefficients are significantly different from those before the COVID-19 pandemic. The stock markets are most influenced by economic factors during the COVID-19 outbreak.     

Zoning, TDRs and the density of development

This paper explores the effect of low density zoning regulations and other factors on subdivision density. Using a unique dataset of new subdivisions built over a 34-year period in Calvert County, Maryland, we econometrically estimate a density function using both OLS and censored regression. The variability in density permitted by the county's zoning and TDR rules over the sample period allows us to assess the relative importance of market factors and regulatory constraints on density. We use the censored model to predict what density patterns would have been without zoning.     

Translating management ideas: Imitation modes and translation outcomes

This paper examines the translation of Leadership Pipeline in a Danish fire department. On the basis of a distinction between faithful and unfaithful imitation, we contribute to a better understanding of imitation as a driving force in translation processes. Rather than equating imitation with unfaithfulness, we show that translation can be guided by different and successive imitation modes over time and involve different degrees and combinations of ideational and organizational change. We connect different imitation modes with two translation outcomes; disalignment and reproduction, that have received little attention in previous research.     

Irregular workloads with MRP systems: Some causes and consequences

Material Requirements Planning (MRP) systems have been widely applied in industry to better manage multiproduct, multistage production environments. Although many applications have been quite successful, much is still left to the planner's intuition as to how to assure that master schedules, component lot sizes, and priorities realistically conform to the capacity limits at individual work centers. Capacity issues may indeed be the soft spot in MRP logic.This paper explores some possible causes of irregular workload patterns when using an MRP system. Better insight on which factors cause temporary bottlenecks could help managers better assess the vulnerability of their plants to this problem. It might also suggest ways of dampening peaks and valleys. The problem setting is a multistage environment; several products are made from various subassemblies and parts. Each shop order is routed through one or more capacitated work centers. An order is delayed either by temporary capacity shortages or the unavailability of components. Of course, the second delay can be caused by capacity problems previously encountered by the shop orders of its components.Seven experimental factors are tested with a large-scale simulator, and five performance measures are analyzed. The factors are the number of levels in the bill of material, the average load on the shop, the average lot size, the choice of priority rule, demand variability, the use of a gateway department, and the degree of equipment specialization. We have one measure of customer service, two for inventory, and two for workload. The workload measures are unconventional, since our interest is when workload variability occurs and how it affects inventory and customer service.The simulator has been developed over the course of eight years, and since this study has been further enhanced to handle many more factors. The simulator was validated recently with real data at two manufacturing plants. It is quite general, in that the bills of material, shop configuration, routings, worker efficiencies, and operating rules can be changed as desired.An initial screening experiment was performed, whereupon the average load and priority rules were not statistically significant at even the .05 level. A full factorial analysis with two replications was then conducted on the five remaining factors. Multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) and analysis of variance (ANOVA) statistical tests have been performed.The results confirm that workload variability can have a detrimental impact on customer service and inventory. The following structural changes to the manufacturing system can be beneficial, but tend to be more difficult to achieve. More BOM levels improve customer service, but increase inventory and capacity bottlenecks. Resource flexibility is a powerful tool to reduce workload variability. Capacity slack averaging much over 10% is wasteful, having no benefits for inventory and customer service. In general, revising the routing patterns only, such as creating more dominant paths, will not give big payoffs. The following procedural changes are easier to implement. Master schedules which smooth aggregate resources are an excellent device to reduce workload variability. Even with a smooth MPS, debilitating workload variability can still occur due to the design of the BOM, lot size, and leadtime offset parameters. Selecting a priority rule does not seem to be of overriding importance compared to master scheduling and component lot sizing. These findings must be considered within the context of the range of plant environments encompassed by this study.     

Risk-taking behavior of technology firms: The role of performance feedback in the video game industry

This study focuses on what drives technology-driven companies to engage in risk-taking behavior by serving new markets. Building on the behavioral theory of the firm and prospect theory, this study suggests that technology-driven organizations tend to respond to past performance rather than future possibilities. Using a sample of 5312 video games from 362 game developers, the results reveal that market performance trend and market performance variability have opposing effects on risk-taking behavior: while a positive market performance trend negatively influences a company's tendency to venture into new markets, a high-degree of market performance variability tends to positively influence new market entry. The study also finds opposite results for expert performance trend and expert performance variability: companies with consistently positive expert evaluations are more likely to enter into new markets, while variability in expert evaluations has a negative effect on new market entry. Furthermore, the effects of expert performance trend and variability are conditional on market performance trends. Finally, the results suggest that companies that venture into new markets tend to choose relatively similar markets if these companies are suffering from a negative market performance trend or a negative expert review trend.     

What inferences can and cannot be made on the basis of meta-analysis?

Meta-analysis involves inferences about the mean, the variability and the substantive reasons for variability in effect sizes. The risks inherent in each of these inferences are reviewed, and a Bayesian approach to using meta-analysis to determine whether effects vary in important ways is suggested.     

De spreiding van inschrijvingsbedragen op openbare aanbestedingen

Summary
The Dispersion of Bids in Public Contracting
The analysis is concerned with the coefficients of variation (standard deviation divided by mean) of bids in public contracting by the municipal authorities of a big city in the period 1946–1953. Three factors are investigated as to their impact on these coefficients of variation. The first is time; it is shown that the dispersion decreased gradually, probably as a result of increased cartelization. The second is the nature of the object (road building and earth-work, waterworks, and sewerage); waterworks seem to be characterized by a smaller dispersion of bids. The third is the size of the object, and it is shown that the dispersion is smaller for large objects than for small ones, probably as a result of the greater care of cost calculation for large objects. An attempt is also made to ascertain the interaction of these factors.     

Influence measurement of rapid urbanization on agricultural production factors based on provincial panel data

The proportion of agricultural output value is continuously decreasing because of the process of rapid urbanization, but it is still the basis of economic development and urban construction. Agricultural production factors are at the core of agriculture, and have an important influence on the agricultural output value. In the period of rapid urbanization, high technical and capital investment improved agricultural production efficiency and increased the income of farmers. However, in recent years it also introduced serious problems for agricultural production, including aging farmers and weakening labor markets, farmland conversion, and soil pollution. In this study, we estimated the elasticity coefficients of agricultural production factors, including labor, capital and technique, using the improved Cobb–Douglas production function and provincial panel data from 2000 to 2015, and measured the effects of urbanization on elasticity coefficients using the Euclidean metric and gravity model. The results were as follows. (1) In time, the elasticity coefficient of labor was stable, and with a low increase from 0.238 to 0.304. However, the elasticity coefficients of land and capital had been increasing since 2000, by 1.125 and 0.140, respectively. The higher elasticity coefficient of agricultural production factors was gradual from labor to capital, with the growth of urbanization level. (2) In space, the elasticity coefficients were the space distribution, as urbanization divided into east, central and west: the elasticity coefficients of labor and land in the eastern regions were higher, and the elasticity coefficient of capital in the central regions was higher. (3) Economic urbanization had a larger positive influence on the elasticity coefficient of capital, and the population had a larger negative influence on elasticity coefficients of labor. The quantitative results were similar to the development status, but there were different influences on elasticity coefficients in different provinces. (4) Finally, the study put forward suggestions for agricultural sustainable development according to the function mechanism of urbanization on agricultural production factors, including increasing the attention paid agriculture, ensuring a stable market environment, and optimizing the industrial structure, with reference to scientific, green and healthy agriculture.     

我国城市主题公园建设的几个问题

基于我国大多数城市主题公园经营业绩欠佳的现实,探讨了主题公园与体验旅游的关系,提出通过高科技武装和市场化运作,提高主题公园的科技含量、体验效果和经济效益,强调发挥主题公园的产业联动机制,带动区域经济的全面发展.     

Can mutual funds time risk factors?

Using daily observations from 448 actively managed funds, we employ the methodology in Bollen and Busse (2001) in order to assess the ability of fund managers to time systematic risk factors. We first construct synthetic portfolios in order to obtain the empirical distribution of timing coefficients under the null hypothesis of no timing ability and then compare this distribution to that of the timing coefficients of the actual funds. Fund managers do not seem to be timing any of the risk factors. We interpret this result as evidence that factor timing ability does not persist over long time periods.     

Cross-section dependence and the monetary exchange rate model – A panel analysis

This paper tackles the issue of cross-section dependence for the monetary exchange rate model in the presence of unobserved common factors using panel data from 1973 until 2007 for 19 OECD countries. Applying a principal component analysis we distinguish between common factors and idiosyncratic components and determine whether non-stationarity stems from international or national stochastic trends. We find evidence that the common factors are I(1) while the idiosyncratic components are I(0). This finding indicates that cross-member cointegration exists and non-stationarity in exchange rates and fundamentals is mainly driven by common international trends. We find evidence that the common factors of the exchange rates and fundamentals are cointegrated. In addition, the estimated long-run coefficients of this common international relationship are in line with the suggestions of the monetary model with respect to income and money.     

Estimation for multivariate stable distributions with generalized empirical likelihood

This paper considers the generalized empirical likelihood (GEL) method for estimating the parameters of the multivariate stable distribution. The GEL method is considered to be an extension of the generalized method of moments (GMM). The multivariate stable distributions are widely applicable as they can accommodate both skewness and heavy tails. We treat the spectral measure, which summarizes scale and asymmetry, by discretization. In order to estimate all the model parameters simultaneously, we apply the estimating function constructed by equating empirical and theoretical characteristic functions. The efficacy of the proposed GEL method is demonstrated in Monte Carlo studies. An illustrative example involving daily returns of market indexes is also included.