Specialization of state sectoral employment

This paper uses an index to measure the level of employment diversity at the state level for 2000. The index is based on aggregating employment at eight major sectors. The paper utilizes sixteen science and engineering indicator variables to explain specialization at the state level in recent years. All but seven variables were found to provide explanations.      

Predicting benchmarked US state employment data in real time

US payroll employment data come from a survey and are subject to revisions. While revisions are generally small at the national level, they can be large enough at the state level to alter assessments of current economic conditions. Users must therefore exercise caution in interpreting state employment data until they are “benchmarked” against administrative data 5–16 months after the reference period. This article develops a state-space model that predicts benchmarked state employment data in real time. The model has two distinct features: (1) an explicit model of the data revision process and (2) a dynamic factor model that incorporates real-time information from other state-level labor market indicators. We find that the model reduces the average size of benchmark revisions by about 11 percent. When we optimally average the model’s predictions with those of existing models, the model reduces the average size of the revisions by about 14 percent.     

Impact of trade liberalization on firm's labour demand by skill: The case of Tunisian manufacturing

This paper investigates the impact of the trade liberalization process in Tunisia on employment by distinguishing different skills and different types of firms using micro level data covering the period of 1983–1994. There is considerable disagreement among analysts on the impact of recent trade reforms upon labour. Our contribution to these debates in this paper is essentially an empirical issue. The analysis of a Tunisian firm's data may be viewed as an attempt to apprehend how employment in Tunisia, a developing country, adjusted to the trade reforms. Using micro-level detail on individual firms, we are able to trace the relationship between changes in trade policies and manufacturing employment at firm level and by skill. Although trade reforms are generally implemented at the sector level, their effects may vary significantly across firm characteristics such as output orientation. We measure the effects of trade policy on employment according to different types of firms. We also associate changes in employment directly with a measure of change in trade protection, rather than linking them to changes in imports and exports which would be more common. The results suggest that the impact of trade liberalization on labour demand depends on a firm's characteristics. In particular, the estimates obtained suggest that trade liberalization has beneficial effects on employment for exporting-firms. Conversely, trade liberalization has negative and disciplinary effects on employment for domestically oriented firms. The reduction in tariff levels conducted in this first phase of liberalization in Tunisia seems to have had effects with different intensity on unskilled labour and on skilled labour; this justifies the examination of these two skills.     

Sectoral Shocks and Metropolitan Employment Growth

In this paper, we study the sources of industry employment growth in each of five metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). The objective is to understand the relative importance of aggregate disturbances versus local sectoral shocks in generating observed employment fluctuations at the MSA level. The empirical evidence presented in this paper derives from structural vector autoregressions (SVARs), estimated for each of the five MSAs. Estimations use monthly employment data covering nine one-digit industrial categories for the period 1951:1–1999:8, as well as two variables that capture the influences of aggregate (i.e., national) shocks on MSAs. We find that within-MSA industry shocks explain considerably more of the forecast error variance in industry employment growth than do aggregate shocks. Sectoral shocks account for between 87 and 94% of the 36-month-ahead forecast error variance. Among individual local sectors, shocks to MSA-specific government, manufacturing, and service sector employment growth are the predominate sources of variability.     

Self-employment and job generation in metropolitan areas, 1969–2009

Many regional development policy initiatives assume that entrepreneurial activities promote economic growth. Empirical research has presented rationale for this argument showing that small firms create proportionally more new jobs than large firms. However, little research has been performed on the issue of net job generation at the urban level, particularly when self-employment is considered as an indicator of entrepreneurial activities. This paper investigates to what extent US metropolitan areas in the 1969–2009 period characterized by relatively high rates of self-employment also have shown relatively high rates of subsequent total employment growth. The analysis corrects for the influence of sectoral composition, wage level, educational attainment, presence of research universities and size of the metropolitan area to measure the extent to which the number and quality of self-employed in a region contribute to total employment growth. It finds the relationship between self-employment rates and subsequent total employment growth to be positive on average during the 40-year period but to weaken over time.     

Intersectoral labour reallocations and unemployment in Italy

The Italian labour market, like most European labour markets and unlike the US, shows a greater cyclical sensitivity of the service sector with respect to manufacturing and firing costs higher than hiring costs. This accounts for the negative relationship between sectoral employment shifts and Italian unemployment in the post-war period and, correspondingly, for the pro-cyclical pattern of the Lilien index, in contrast with the US experience.By applying the Lilien index to the Italian context, this paper analyses the relative importance of sectoral regional and national factors in the explanation of changes in industrial structure, and their impact on unemployment. The econometric exercise illustrates that, given the structural features of the Italian labour market, the decline in intersectoral and interregional labour reallocations has significantly contributed to the increase of unemployment in Italy. New hires, the pull of new sectors, sectoral shifts and regional mobility can keep unemployment down, while at the same time maintaining some of the structural features of the “European model” (high employment security and stability).     

The Tories and employment law in Northern Ireland: seeing unions in a different light?

This article examines changes in Northern Ireland employment law in the last decade, with a view to establishing whether the unions there were handled more gently by government than at national level. It concludes that in 1992 ideological orthodoxy finally overwhelmed any feeling of benignity which may have survived from an earlier period.     

The Rise in Danish Unemployment: Reallocation or Mismatch?*

The two main competing theories for the outward shift in the uv‐curve are investigated: increased separations from employment at a given employment level (reallocation) and decreased levels of hires, given unemployment and vacancies (mismatch). Shifts in the unemployment–vacancy (uv)‐curve and the hiring function are modelled by smooth transition functions, and the hypothesis of analogous shifts in the two curves is tested and accepted. This is interpreted as evidence in favour of the mismatch hypotheses.     

Labour market

The labour market has kept improving at a steady pace over the last few months. The latest Labour Force Survey data, for the three months to August, show that the level of employment increased by 155,000 on the quarter, while the unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points over the same period to 7.7%…     

Differentiating emotional intelligence in leadership

Leadership has received considerable attention since the 1990s. We claim that leaders can be found at all levels of employment, and at the very least, all managers are expected to be leaders. Yet managerial status does not guarantee leadership. Leadership is a necessary component of and a filter for successful management. Effective managers demonstrate leadership capabilities. Leadership attributes are well captured in measures of emotional intelligence (EQ). Hence, leadership can improve if managers work to develop their EQ. We show how EQ, and hence leadership, can vary by level of employment among a composite international group of 3,305 employees with the Six Seconds Emotional Intelligence Assessment. The relationship between six leadership groups, as based on their EQ performance, across different employment levels was statistically examined, suggesting that leadership is realized in different ways depending on level of employment. It appears that employees become more skillful in emotional literacy and consequential thinking as they progress up the employment ladder. Intrinsic motivation and optimism are best leveraged by nonmanagerial rather than senior employees. The diminishing incorporation of empathy with an increase in employment level seems to stand in sharp contrast. Nonmanagerial employees, specialists, and entrepreneurs will benefit from developing their competence in pursuing their objectives with an overarching sense of purpose. The finding that high‐EQ leaders seem to dominate in the managerial levels may be viewed as encouraging.     

Does employment protection help immigrants? Evidence from European labor markets

High levels of employment protection reduce hiring and firing and have a theoretically ambiguous effect on the employment level. Immigrants, being new to the labor market, may be less aware of employment protection regulations and less likely to claim their rights, which may create a gap between the costs for employers of hiring a native relative to hiring an immigrant. This paper tests that hypothesis drawing on evidence for the EU and on two natural experiments for Spain and Italy. The results suggest that strict employment protection legislation (EPL) gives immigrants a comparative advantage relative to natives. Stricter EPL is found to reduce employment and reduce hiring and firing rates for natives. By contrast, stricter EPL has a much smaller effect on immigrants.     

BIG‐BOX RETAILERS,RETAIL EMPLOYMENT,AND WAGES IN THE US

This paper examines the dynamic interrelationship between the presence of big‐box retailers and retail employment and wages in the United States at county level for 1986–2005 using panel vector autoregressions (Panel VAR). The Panel VAR approach addresses endogenous interactions among the variables in the system. In other words, this approach takes into account the fact that the presence of big‐box retailers can have an impact on retail employment and wages and at the same time, retail employment and wages can influence the presence of big‐box retailers. Results indicate that the presence of big‐box retailers has a positive effect on employment but a negative effect on wages. The effect on wages is relatively greater and is more prolonged than the effect on employment. Both employment and wages have an instant (first year) positive effect on the presence of big‐box retailers, which implies that big‐box stores are located in areas where the economy is growing.     

Examining policy configurations as conditions for long-term unemployment and non-standard employment in OECD countries using fuzzy-set analysis

This paper investigates how particular configurations of institutional conditions cause high rate of long-term unemployment and non-standard employment rate for 18 OECD countries during the period of 2001–2008. The paper aims to investigate how employment protection legislation (EPL), unemployment benefit and statutory minimum wages are associated with long-term unemployment and non-standard employment. Using the fuzzy-set analysis, the paper examines how the combination of policies matters in causing long-term unemployment and/or non-standard employment. The result suggests that a low level of statutory minimum wage can lead to high levels of non-standard employment in combination with either strict EPL for permanent workers or weak EPLs for temporary workers. The long-term unemployment rate is suggested to be high when there is strict EPL for temporary workers in combination with high levels of statutory minimum wage. This paper highlights the importance of examining multiple policies as configuration.     

Forecasting employment : The role of forward-looking behaviour

Manufacturing output per head rose at an unprecedented rate in the UK in 1981/2, and conventional econometric relationships failed to forecast the associated falls in employment. In this paper we estimate manufacturing employment equations in which output expectations play a central role. These compare fabourably with alternative models, and are able to predict most of the large falls in employment over this period.     

Turning Unemployment into Self‐Employment: Effectiveness of Two Start‐Up Programmes*

Turning unemployment into self‐employment has become a major focus of German active labour market policy (ALMP) in recent years. If effective, this would not only reduce Germany's persistently high unemployment rate, but also increase its notoriously low self‐employment rate. Empirical evidence on the effectiveness of such programmes is scarce. We evaluate the effectiveness of two start‐up programmes for the unemployed, where we include the probability of being employed, the probability of being unemployed and personal income as outcome variables. Our results show that at the end of the observation period, both programmes are effective. The considerable positive effects present a stark contrast to findings from evaluations of other German ALMP programmes in recent years. Hence, ALMP programmes aimed at moving the unemployed into self‐employment may prove to be among the most effective, both in Germany and elsewhere.     

Effects of U.S. equal employment opportunity and affirmative action programs on women's employment stability

An important labor market issue in the United States is the effect that the Equal Employment Opportunity and affirmative action programs that were implemented in 1965 have had on the employment of women relative to that of men. Using time series data covering the period 1947–1988, an analysis of this issue is undertaken. The results indicate that women in the 20–54 age group benefitted in terms of greater stability of employment (i.e., less sensitivity to short run variations in employment) over the period 1965–1980 while they lost some of these gains over the period 1981–1988 (corresponding to the tenure of the Reagan Administration). Men in the same age group, on the other hand, experienced the opposite effect. That is, men in the 20–54 age group became more sensitive to short run variations in employment over the period 1965–1980 and less sensitive over the period 1981–1988. The evidence also indicates that the EEO and affirmative action programs had the effect of increasing the share of projected employment of women in the 20–54 age group and in the 55–64 age group while decreasing the share of projected employment of men in the comparable age groups.     

Employment,Social Mobility and Neighbourhood Effects: The Case of Sweden

In science and in society at large, there is a big debate going on about the existence and potential impact of ‘neighbourhood effects’. The dominant question is: does the social composition of the neighbourhood have specific positive or negative effects on the career prospects of those who are living there? We seek to contribute to this debate by investigating the relationship between individual social mobility and the social composition of the residential environment. For that purpose we analysed new longitudinal Swedish data, which is available at the individual level. We particularly focused our attention on the employment careers of individuals in relation to the levels of employment or unemployment in their individual environments. Environment effects on social mobility were isolated, controlling for relevant variables that were available at the individual level. We were also able to control for changes in the environments over time. Individual longitudinal data could be used over the period 1991–9. The analyses revealed that their environment appears to have a moderate yet clear impact on the employment prospects of unemployed individuals. The academic relevance of the article is in its contribution to the theoretical underpinnings of the human–environment relationship; the societal relevance is to the area‐based policies and the housing policies aimed at social mixing, which are currently being developed in many places in the Western world.     

Employment in China’s hi-tech zones

The purpose of this paper is to explore employment differences over time across China’s hi-tech zones. Using data from China’s Ministry of Science and Technology, we find that if a university science park is within a hi-tech zone, employment in that zone is higher, but that finding only holds for zones established in the pre-information communication technology period. After 2000, proximity to a university science park does not appear to be necessary for the exchange of tacit knowledge which we contend leverages the technology base of firms and organizations in the zone and thus their level of employment. We also find greater employment in hi-tech zones in which information technology is a dominant industry.     

A model for manpower, employment, training and education

The increasing refinement and variety of economic projections can give the educational planner an extremely useful tool, providing he can find a way to convert sectoral projections of employment into educational requirements. In this study occupational data from the Census of 1960 were converted directly into their vocational educational equivalents so that cross-classifications by (SIC) sector permitted the derivation of sectoral employment/education coefficients. These coefficients, multiplied by projected employment in each sector, give projected employment in terms of the vocational preparation which is implied.

Using this approach, vocational preparation requirements were projected to 1975 for the fifty states and 224 metropolitan areas. The results thus generated show the variety which can be anticipated among the various regions in the United States, and can provide guidance to local and state educational groups in setting up programs at state and local levels.

A similar approach which used various national projections led to two conclusions. The level of sectoral detail can have quite important impacts on the “mix” of training requirements which results, suggesting that projections of this type must be based on quite detailed sectoral employment breakdowns. Second, shifts in patterns of growth can have marked impacts on some types of vocational training requirements while needs for other types remain relatively unaffected.     

What is the most flexible component of wage bill adjustment? Evidence from Belgium

This paper decomposes wage bill changes at the firm level into components due to wage changes, and components due to flows of employment. It relies on an administrative matched employer–employee dataset of individual earnings merged with firms' annual accounts for Belgium over the period 1997–2001. The results are in line with what one would expect in a downward wage rigidity environment. On average, wage bill contractions result essentially from employment cuts in spite of wage increases. Wage growth of job stayers is moderated but positive; and wages of entrants compared with those of incumbents are no lower. The labour force cuts are achieved through both reduced entries and increased exits, due to more layoffs, especially in smaller firms, and wider use of early retirement, especially in manufacturing. In addition, the paper points out the role of overtime hours, temporary unemployment and interim workers in adapting hours worked to economic circumstances.