The computer imperative

“The Computer Imperative” has been defined as the necessity for the administrator to specify his goals, objectives, criteria, standards, rules, etc., in very explicit and operational terms as he seeks to devise a better management system, especially if computers will be used to implement portions of the system. It is essential that educational leaders be able to tell system designers and computer technologists what they want, and to do this they must know at least the rudiments of what is technically possible. Otherwise, the administrator in some sense is at the mercy of the technologist. Studying an administrative system as essentially an information system provides a useful model. To define who originates, processes, uses, or needs information is to describe much of the actual operation of administration. In a manual system, many rules and procedures can be left undefined, and intuition and experience can substitute effectively for logical precision. As computers are programed to assume certain basic transactional functions, the administrator must bear in mind that computers do only what they are told. It is therefore critically important to be able to describe what we want. Much of the “threat” of automation can be attributed to uneasy or uncomfortable recognition of this “imperative”.     

Mathematical analysis applied to school attendance areas

The objective of this paper is to develop a generalized mathematical model of pupil assignment within school districts. This model can then be used to examine various policies of student integration. Proposed bussing schemes, school location policies, educational parks, attendance boundaries, etc., can be tested for cost, travel time or other measures of efficiency. Extension to other areas of educational planning is feasible.

Mathematical programming techniques are used to assign resources (say school children) to facilities (say schools) subject to restrictions on facilities (say capacity limits) and resources (say a maximum travel time or a desirable range of school “mixtures”) so that a measure of performance, the “objective function” (say total cost or total time of travel) is optimized. The model is intended to allow examination of a wide range of objective functions and system constraints.     

An extremal and information-theoretic characterization of some interzonal transfer models

The paper develops a method of deriving gravity models from extremal principles. The prototype result yields the most popular gravity flow model characterized by an extremal principle. This principle is also for the first time elucidated as an information-theoretic one of choosing the distribution of interzonal transfers which gives least “information” (in the technical sense) for discrimination against a distribution reflecting the “facility” (reciprocal of the “difficulty”) of travel between zones.     

Social indicators and social accounts

This paper defines “social indicators” as statistics which have two denning characteristics. They are, first, measures of direct normative interest; that is, what the economist would call measures of “welfare” and “illfare”. Most existing government statistics are not of this type, because a large proportion of existing statistics are measures of government or other institutional activity, produced as a by-product of accounting or administrative routine. The second defining characteristic of a social indicator is that it should fit into a systematic scheme of classification or aggregation which would make possible a balanced assessment of socio-economic progress or retrogression in some broad area, as well as disaggregated and detailed study of particular problems.

The work in government on social indicators was designed in part to meet the needs of Toward a Social Report, a preliminary study of the condition of American society issued by the U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare (Superintendent of Documents, Wash. D.C. 20402; 1969). Social indicators can also fit, with other statistics, into a set of “policy accounts” or scheme of social accounting, which would relate social expenditures to the social indicator they were designed to affect. This would encourage broadened cost-benefit analysis and rational public decision-making.     

An integrated approach to the development of continuous simulations

An integrated approach to the development of Forrester-style simulation models is described. The approach incorporates the concept of an interaction matrix to assist in the development of causal loop diagrams and Dynamo flow diagrams. The interaction matrix is derived from the fundamental notions of system dynamics. Premised upon the presumption that a computer-aided procedure for model formulation can expedite, systematize, and operationalize the model formulation process, the integrated approach utilizes the interaction matrix as a data structure within the computer. An algorithm designed to interface with a remote terminal (such as a CRT display) determines the interaction matrix by interrogating a user until sufficient information about the problem of interest has been obtained. This algorithm is also described in the paper. The interrogations both motivate and facilitate the determination of quantities to be included as well as couplings between the quantities. When a quantity or coupling is designated by a user, the algorithm “knows” its identity at the time of user origination. Both algorithm and matrix are illustrated through recourse to a text-book example and the paper concludes with a summarizing discussion of the possible contribution of such an approach.     

A linear model for the allocation of instructional resources

An allocation model is proposed for instructional systems which have instructional programs that can be structured in terms of behavioral objectives, instructional activities and required achievement levels. It is assumed that the relevant characteristics of the students and teachers are known and that the instructional resources needed for an activity can be estimated. Carroll's “model for school learning” is used to justify a linear model. Carroll's model hypothesizes that a learner will achieve an objective to the extent that he spends the time he needs. As a first approximation, the degree of learning is the ratio of the time actually spent on learning to the time required. The model can be used for econometric studies of instructional systems and to compare resource allocation strategies.     

OR vice: Forecasting and classification techniques for narcotics interdiction

Counternarcotics interdiction efforts have traditionally relied on historically determined sorting criteria or “best guess” to find and classify suspected smuggling traffic. We present a more quantitative approach which incorporates customized database applications, graphics software and statistical modeling techniques to develop forecasting and classification models. Preliminary results show that statistical methodology can improve interdiction rates and reduce forecast error. The idea of predictive modeling is thus gaining support in the counterdrug community. The problem is divided into sea, air and land forecasting, only part of which will be addressed here. The maritime problem is solved using multiple regression in lieu of multivariate time series. This model predicts illegal boat counts by behavior and geographic region. We developed support software to present the forecasts and to automate the process of performing periodic model updates. During the period, the model was in use at. Coast Guard Headquarters. Because of deterrence provided by improved intervention, the vessel seizure rate declined from 1 every 36 hours to 1 every 6 months. Due in part to the success of the sea model, the maritime movement of marijuana has ceased to be a major threat. The air problem is more complex, and required us to locally design data collection and display software. Intelligence analysts are using a customized relational database application with a map overlay to perform visual pattern recognition of smuggling routes. We are solving the modeling portion of the air problem using multiple regression for regional forecasts of traffic density, and discriminant analysis to develop tactical models that classify “good guys” and “bad guys”. The air models are still under development, but we discuss some modeling considerations and preliminary results. The land problem is even more difficult, and data collection is still in progress.     

Information theoretic approach to migration analysis

Information theory is employed to look at certain aspects of migration. It is suggested that the dividedness of a population into “movers” and “stayers” is better assessed by migration entropy. The notion of “migration inequality” is introduced and the principle of minimum entropy suggested as a criterion for fitting migrations models. Canadian census data are utilized for illustration purposes.     

Redistricting reformulated: A maximum interaction/minimum separation objective

Alternative objective functions to the population centroid type commonly employed in computerized political districting algorithms are suggested and discussed. Districtings based on maximum overlap of individuals' “action spaces” or on minimum aggregate length of interpersonal separations better represent the spatio-political notion of “compactness” than do those based on centroid measures. The traditional analogy between the warehouse location problem and the optimal districting problem may thus be an inappropriate one. The proposed reformulated optimal districting problem with a spatial interaction or interpersonal separation objective may be formally stated as a quadratic integer program. The solution to the program is seen, however, to be only one of several possible “optimal” political partitionings. Regardless of the specific compactness measure chosen, separate “mean” and “modal” districtings may exist.     

The dynamod model of student and teacher population growth

DYNAMOD II is a computerized Markov-type model which calculates data for 140 population groups over selected intervals of time. These population groups are crossclassified as to sex, race (2 categories), age (6 categories), educational status (3 levels of students and teachers respectively, as well as elementary and secondary school dropouts), and an “other” category. The model employs over 832 transition probabilities to cycle the population groups. Independent birth projections are added to the appropriate sex-race categories after each interaction.

The model is programmed for the RCA 3301 and GE time-sharing computer systems. On the GE system, a data file arrangement permits on-line access to any of the inputs or probabilities. In addition, user options regarding the desired amount of detailed output are available.

DYNAMOD II can provide the educational community with estimates of the impact on the educational population of proposed policy changes or of sudden shifts in the structure of the educational system. For example, if policymakers wish to know what effect will be produced by a policy designed to decrease the elementary-school teacher turnover by one percent, DYNAMOD II can supply not only information on the new levels of teacher projections, but also can provide estimates of the rate at which these adjustments will take place. Not only are these estimates possible for the various tiers of student and teacher structures in the model, but changes outside the educational system, such as in birth and death rates can be handled as well. It follows that the impact of policy changes on policy tools, such as the student-teacher ratio, can also be estimated with the use of DYNAMOD II.     

Expert systems in production management: An assessment

Over the last several years expert systems (ES) have gained almost sensational interest. Within business administration, production management might be one of the most fruitful application areas for ES. There already exist a number of interesting pilot systems, and reports of research projects are beginning to appear in the literature.The main goal of this study is to identify systematically those areas in production management where an ES approach might be most promising. This is important to both researchers and practitioners because it helps pinpoint where research and development resources would be best allocated.In this article the authors provide a taxonomy for production management activities. They then combine this taxonomy with a well-known list of eight “expert tasks” to provide what they call an “applications map” to guide the discussion.After discussing existing research efforts and potential production management applications of expert systems, the authors employ a Likert scoring procedure to quantify their subjective ratings as to problem importance, potential for improved solution, and ease of development, for expert systems development efforts in a given production management decision situation.One conclusion here is that the applicability of expert systems to production management appears to be broadly based. This is particularly true for what the authors have labeled as “technological” activities. An interesting finding is the apparent lack of applicability of expert systems to inventory management. The authors found no existing system or research proposals applying expert systems to inventory management. Finally, systems that combine technological with logistical knowledge seem to be a fertile (but difficult) application area for ES.     

Budget decision making in large public school systems

This paper reviews and discusses results of a study of the budget process in fourteen large city school districts. Topics covered include incremental decision making, the use of “ratios” and “norms” in school budgeting, public participation in budgeting, relevant structural arrangements of local government, and the influence of boards of education on the allocation of resources. Finally, implications for the improvement of school management practices in large school districts are discussed.     

Efficient allocation of subsidies to college students

This paper describes how the standard economic constrained maximization model can be applied to improve the efficiency of allocation of subsidies to college students. After a general discussion the model is applied to the allocation of a subsidy to freshman students at the University of California according to equity objectives. This model suggests that student subsidy programs should be based on explicit consideration of student willingness to pay for college in relation to carefully specified enrollment objectives. The administration of such a program would require changes in the currently used financial “need” approach to student subsidy programs. The case is made that the necessary changes are feasible.     

An application of a spatially distributed queuing model to an ambulance system

An application of a spatially distributed queuing model to an ambulance system is presented. The purpose of this research was to assess the usefulness of a variation of the “hypercube” queuing model developed specifically for modeling an ambulance system. The model was applied to the emergency medical system of Greenville County, South Carolina using historical data. Results indicate that the model provides reasonably accurate estimates of system performance measures when the input parameters can be accurately specified.     

Education of disadvantaged children

There are at least two basic strategies for finding answers to the questions posed: what compensatory programs are “successful”, for which groups of children, and at what cost? The first strategy involves the design and execution of a series of controlled experiments in education; the second involves statistical analyses of existing compensatory education programs. In line with the first strategy, next year, the Follow Through program will fund a series of educational demonstration programs based on a “menu” of different curricula for children in the early elementary grades. Participating school districts will opt for one or another of the approaches offered, and will, in the course of the year, receive the advice and counsel of consultants in implementing the approach selected. A second—and complementary—basic strategy for finding out what works in compensatory education capitalizes on the wealth of information waiting to be collected on the operation of existing programs.

Since the spring of 1967, staff members of the Office of the Secretary of DHEW, the Office of Education, and a contractor—TEMPO, a division of General Electric Company—have been engaged in a pilot cost-effectiveness analysis of compensatory education programs. For the 11 districts studied, two distinct developments appear to have occurred in pupil performance: first, there appears to have been a slight decline in average pupil achievement in the sample schools. At the same time, there appears to have been a slight improvement in the achievement of pupils who are at the lowest achievement levels in their respective grades. The achievement data from the districts in the study indicate considerable variation in achievement results. The conduct and content of compensatory programs vary greatly. Preliminary analysis suggests that the amount of achievement increase is positively related to the level of expenditures for compensatory education programs.

To make real progress in assessing the effectiveness of alternative education programs and to overcome the difficulties discussed throughout this paper, we see the need to pursue two major courses of action. The first concerns the funding of controlled experiments introducing major variations into school programs, using comparable measures of program costs, inputs and effectiveness over time. The second is a frontal assault on evaluation in the form of a cooperative effort with a small number of interested States and local school districts to carry out a longitudinal study of compensatory programs.     

Simulating urban population density with a gravity-based model

Theoretical justifications for the negative exponential urban density function were first proposed by urban economists, although some of their foundations have been criticized. From the geographer's perspective, the gravity-based model reported in this research uses a well-known concept (the “potential”) to offer an alternative explanation. Using numerical analysis techniques, the model simulates various urban density patterns. By varying the model's parameters (the distance friction coefficient β and the city size), the numerical simulations do confirm two important empirical findings: the flattening of density gradients over time owing to transportation improvements, and flatter gradients in larger cities. The observed relationship between the β value and the urban density gradient, as established by this research, opens an avenue for empirical testing.     

A note extending Grosskopf, Hayes, Taylor and Weber, “Anticipating the consequences of school reform: A new use of DEA”

The article cited in the current paper's title shows how to extend Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to evaluate future, as well as past and present, performance. This is accomplished by relaxing some of the constraints that reflect the presence of imposed regulations, and then re-computing the evaluations under these alternate conditions. We here extend this approach to account for “long-run” and “short-run” behaviors, and the related bodies of theory that play prominent roles in microeconomics.     

A budget model of a university

Yale University operates a number of budget systems for purposes of planning and control. These include a capital budget, a cash budget, an operating budget, and an operating growth budget. The operating growth budget might be the one of most potential interest to people concerned with Operations Analysis in Education.

The operating growth budget is a model of what the University fiscal flows and structure might look like under varying conditions over an extended period, e.g., 20 years. It is composed of a set of ideas, a set of equations, and a computer program.

It is important to us to point out that this work is in a development stage. We have run many simulations, adjusted the program, refined the parameter estimates, and modified the questions we have been asking. Part of our efforts have followed a concern that we have captured the appropriate structure, part that we are investigating our own spectrum of decisions, and part that we can reflect the varying “external” conditions outside of the University's immediate influence and control.

Our work with the operating growth budget has already started to influence some of the decisions of the University including the yearly operating budget, the capital funds programs, and the endowment investment portfolio.     

The position of agriculture in kibbutz economy—an attempt at quantitative projection

The Israeli Kibbutz Movement adopted the ideology of the “Return to Nature” and aspired to especially develop agricultural labour. But in the past decade there has been a process of “internal migration” of workers from agriculture to industrial occupations, which was compared to the “Industrial Revolution”. The ratio of agricultural workdays to other productive branches workdays decline from 62% in 1967 to 46.5% in 1974. Kibbutz' management has many reasons to evaluate its future direction, (investment in land, in education, etc.). We shall try to describe the expected developments, using the Markov chain. We shall also try to analyse the yearly interchanges and transfer from agriculture to industry and vice versa. We shall attempt to show that the process of decreasing agricultural manpower has almost ceased, and it will become stable on a fixed level of about 43%.