我国外汇储备间接投资结构的历史演化与动态考察

2006年以来我国外汇储备一直蝉联世界首位,巨额外汇储备在保证我国国际收支平衡和稳定本币汇率方面发挥着积极作用,但是也同样面临着收益率缩水和投资结构不合理等问题。本文基于历史演化过程的动态比较方法,运用国际收支平衡表分析工具,对1997—2012年间我国外汇储备间接投资结构的动态变化过程进行了分析和比较。结果表明:我国外汇储备投资主要集中于政府中长期债权和货币市场工具,债权投资的比重大于股权投资的比重,外汇储备投资优先保证其安全性和流动性,而将盈利性置于次要位置,外汇间接投资结构具有明显的路径依赖特征。     

Balance Sheet Effects, Growth, and Crises

This paper addresses two questions: are currency crises predicted by increases in a central bank’s external and contingent liabilities relative to assets, and do these “balance sheet effects” generate persistent output losses following a crisis? I find empirical evidence that the answer to both questions is yes. I use data on stocks of gross external assets and liabilities for 167 countries over 1973–2003, in an unbalanced panel probit regression to obtain robust estimates of the probability and determinants of a post‐crisis recession. Several single and simultaneous equation specifications support the idea that the output cost of a currency crisis depends on its transmission mechanism. Specifically, a recession is likely to be severe if it is preceded by a crisis that works its way through the financial sector. In addition, the results show that measures of contingent liabilities, capital flight, and lack of financial depth are significant predictors of costly crises.     

Foreign Direct Investment and Enterprise Restructuring in Central Europe

Foreign direct investment is at the forefront of economic policy decisions in Central Europe, as it is expected to accelerate enterprise restructuring and aid in the successful transition to a market economy. This paper contains a panel data study of the effects of FDI in 11 different manufacturing sectors within three Central European economies: Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic. We find evidence that FDI has increased labour productivity levels in most manufacturing sectors. We are able to differentiate between sectors with a high elasticity of substitution between labour and capital and those that are inelastic. We have also presented evidence to support the theory that the impact on labour productivity is predominantly due to the intangible assets introduced by foreign firms, rather than simply the fixed capital investment associated with FDI.     

External Constraint and Financial Crises with Balance Sheet Effects

This article investigates the dynamic implications of Krugman's (1999 Krugman, P. 1999. Balance sheets, the transfer problem, and financial crises. International Tax and Public Finance, 6(4): 459–472. (doi:10.1023/A:1008741113074)[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) model of financial crises with balance-sheet effects, which has a considerable impact on the literature of international financial crisis. Considering explicitly the wealth-accumulation constraint and the external equilibrium condition, I describe an emerging-market financial crisis as a jump from an unstable dynamic trajectory to a stable one, instead of a jump from a ‘good’ to a ‘bad’ equilibrium with zero investment and zero foreign debt. By discriminating the financial crises according to the severity of the negative impacts of some internal and external factors, this article also adds some insights into the anti-crisis policy.     

Balance Sheet Effects, Bailout Guarantees and Financial Crises

This paper provides a model of boom-bust episodes in middle-income countries. It is based on sectoral differences in corporate finance: the nontradables sector is special in that it faces a contract enforceability problem and enjoys bailout guarantees. As a result, currency mismatch and borrowing constraints arise endogenously in that sector. This sectoral asymmetry allows the model to replicate the main features of observed boom–bust episodes. In particular, episodes begin with a lending boom and a real appreciation, peak in a self-fulfilling crisis during which a real depreciation coincides with widespread bankruptcies, and end in a recession and credit crunch. The nontradables sector accounts for most of the volatility in output and credit.     

自然资源资产负债表的编制框架研究

自然资源资产负债表是十八届三中全会提出的新的资源管理手段,目前还处于探索阶段。成熟的资产负债表管理、遥感科学和信息技术的深入发展、绿色国民经济账户与生态系统服务理论的不断创新,为设计自然资源资产负债表提供了坚实的理论和方法基础。在详述自然资源资产负债表的概念、理论和方法的基础之后,文章从资产、负债和所有者权益三个角度提出了自然资源资产负债表的构架、具体的构成科目以及每个科目的核算方法,并从会计核算、监测制度、数据管理、统计制度和评价考核等五个方面对相关的制度创新问题进行了探讨。     

Capacity Investment with Dynamic Operation and Intertemporal Budget Balance

We characterize the optimal investment and production path in a project characterized by indivisible capacity and stochastic inverse demand curve. At first best (without budget requirements), the investment is made earlier the lower the price elasticity of demand, causing the trajectory of production to be below the trajectory of capacity. At second best (when the investor is required to break even), the investment delay is upward distorted, the distortion being larger the lower the price elasticity of demand. Moreover, in the particular case of constant elasticity demand, investment is delayed but production remains at its first‐best level.     

International Transmission of the People's Bank of China's Balance Sheet Expansion

The People's Bank of China's (PBoC) balance sheet expanded more dramatically than any of its major international counterparts during the past decade. The main contribution to this expansion was the rapid accumulation of the central bank's foreign assets, as a result of foreign exchange market intervention. In this paper, we examine the possible international transmission of this expansion by analyzing monthly data for China and 15 other countries over the period 2000–2012. Impulse response analysis based on vector autoregression modeling suggests that the PBoC's balance sheet expansion has greater impacts on developing than on developed countries. So far the influences appear to be dominated by “trade channels” instead of “financial channels,” possibly due to China's capital account controls. However, the impacts of the PBoC's balance sheet expansion on other countries' interest rates, exchange rates, and stock market prices could strengthen significantly in the coming years as China's economic scale grows and its capital account opens up.     

海洋捕捞渔业资源资产负债表编制研究

海洋捕捞渔业资源对我国的海洋经济发展、食品生产与居民就业具有重大意义,其资产负债表的编制有助于摸清家底,实现渔业资源的可持续利用.本研究系统梳理了相关研究成果,从会计假设、会计要素、编制步骤三个方面阐述了海洋捕捞渔业资源资产负债表的编制思路,结合生态补偿探讨了海洋捕捞渔业资源负债,将其划分为应付海洋捕捞渔业资源补偿、应...     

基于可流动性资产负债表的我国政府债务风险研究

政府资产是政府债务顺利偿还的基础,当政府资产低于其负债时,政府债务将面临一定风险,因此基于政府资产负债的视角,本文结合中国实际首先编制了一个简化的政府"可流动性资产"负债表,然后,分析了1998—2008年我国政府仅考虑直接债务时的政府债务风险,并且对2009—2010年的政府债务风险进行了分析。研究表明,2003—2006年因外汇储备急剧增长使我国政府债务风险总体较小且比较稳定,但因金融危机的爆发,我国政府债务风险在此期间前后的两次金融危机中都比较大,金融危机对政府债务风险的影响显著。研究还表明,积极的财政政策对短期降低政府债务风险具有明显效果,且1997年亚洲金融危机和2007年美国次贷危机对我国政府债务风险的影响具有相似性,即金融危机爆发后的几年内政府债务风险会因积极的财政政策而经历"大—小—大"的变化过程。最后,通过引入政府或有债务,分析了具有或有债务时的政府债务风险。本文认为,只要我国政府的或有债务规模不超过24万亿元人民币,则我国的政府债务风险较小。     

管理层权力制衡强度、债务约束与企业创新投资

企业创新是国家经济可持续增长的关键,受到管理层意愿的影响,因而需要对内部经营者的权力进行制衡。以2010-2018年我国A股上市公司为研究样本,实证检验管理层权力制衡强度对企业创新投资的影响,以及不同债务约束情境下高商业信用配置、高负债水平的调节效应,此外,还考察了产权性质的差异化影响。研究表明,管理层权力制衡强度越大,企业创新投资水平越高;高商业信用强化了该促进作用,而高负债水平弱化了该促进作用。进一步研究发现,管理层权力制衡强度与企业创新投资的关系在民企中更显著;国企能够更好地获得和运用商业信用,使其高商业信用对该关系的强化效应更显著;民企具有更强的债务约束,其高负债水平对该关系的弱化效应更明显。     

关于所得税会计中资产负债表债务法的研究

税法与财务会计由于各自目的不同，两者很难或也没有必要做到完全统一。本文从会计角度，按国际财务报告准则第12号要求的资产负债表债务法，具体分析其理论基础、暂时性差异和递延税款的确认、计量与报告。文章认为，我国作为世界贸易组织的成员和世界资本市场的参与者，国家会计准则与国际财务报告准则趋同是提供可比的和高质量会计信息的必要前提。从资产负债表债务法在财务报表中对暂时性差异和递延税款进行双重表达的方式上看，它能使报表使用者更容易获得因暂时性差异对企业长短期财务状况和现金流量影响的信息。     

基于能源平衡表的碳排放清单核算不确定性分析

以天津市为例探讨利用能源平衡表核算CO2的方法,并通过建立方程分析热值、含碳量、碳氧化率和电力排放因子对于天津市CO2排放总量的影响。结果表明,热值、含碳量、碳氧化率的变动对于CO2排放总量的计算有着重大的影响,而电力排放因子的影响不大。因此在不考虑电力排放因子的前提下,计算天津市CO2排放总量在-8.74%~53.29%之间变动,并以三个发电企业为例,分析了热值、含碳量、碳氧化率等取实测值与取缺省值对计算CO2排放量的影响。因此,要想依据能源平衡表获得准确的排放数据,首先必须对能源平衡表进行调整,其次就是根据具体地域差异,确定权威的排放因子。     

The Role of Foreign Direct Investment in the Privatisation and Restructuring of the Czech Motor Industry

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has been considered one of the crucial factors of a successful economic transformation in Central and Eastern Europe. This article investigates the role of FDI in the privatisation and restructuring of the Czech motor industry in the 1990s. In particular, it examines how governmental policies towards FDI affected FDI inflows, the immediate effects of FDI at the enterprise level, and the contested nature of this change. Advantages of foreign ownership for Czech enterprises, such as access to investment capital, access to sale and distribution networks of parent companies and technology transfer are discussed, as well as examples of failures of FDI to result in a successful enterprise restructuring. The information presented is based upon in-depth interviews with top managers of twenty component suppliers, governmental officials and vehicle makers in the Czech Republic as well as on the secondary data.     

城市用地单元划示与公共投资经济平衡方案研究

将城市用地开发单元作为明确开发责任主体的最小实施单位,提出单元划示的方法,明确各类项目地块开发的建设主体;将非经营性项目和经营性项目合理组合成若干开发单元,提出公共投资经济平衡方案,通过优先或同步建设环境、市政等非经营性项目来增加经营性项目的收益,以实现地区开发投融资的总体平衡。最后,提出城市用地单元划示中平衡公共投资经济的实施策略。     

寿险经济价值资产负债表与市场一致性评估方法研究

寿险公司经济价值资产负债表是在市场一致性的框架下,利用精算科学、金融经济学和公司财务学等对寿险公司进行评估,反应寿险公司真实价值的一种财务报表.寿险公司经济价值资产负债表是市场一致性内含价值的评估基础,通过构建寿险公司经济价值资产负债表,可以使市场一致性内含价值的评估更具有可操作性,从而进一步完善市场一致性内含价值评估体系.     

External Shocks, Balance Sheet Contagion, and Speculative Attack on the Pegged Exchange Rate System

A simple monetary model is built to illustrate that the pegged exchange rate system will collapse under an unstable external environment via the balance sheet contagion and the "boiling frog" effect, even if the domestic policy and the fundamentals are sound. If agents anticipate this happening, a speculative attack may still occur. This result is different from that of the first-generation currency crisis model, where the inconsistent domestic policy brings in the collapse of the peg. The policy options to defend the peg in the author's model depend on the nature of the shock. Effective capital control can only be implemented for capital outflow shock. Capital account deregulation is more stabilizing under a current account deficit shock, however. This paper also distinguishes the effect of capital mobility with that of the asset substitutability, as they have completely different impacts on the peg.     

外商直接投资对我国区域经济失衡的影响

随着我国改革开放带来的经济高速发展,吸引了愈来愈多的外商对华直接投资,但在投资的地区分布上呈现出明显的不均衡状况,很大程度上导致了我国区域经济失衡。针对外商直接投资在华分布不均问题展开讨论,详细分析了由于外商直接投资造成的我国区域经济失衡的原因、现状,并提出了相应的改善措施与途径。