Betting on the EMS

Two speculative strategies within the European Monetary System are empirically evaluated. The potential profitability of speculating on a currency's devaluation at a realignment crucially depends on being able to predict timing and magnitude of the parity change. Such opportunity has been eliminated from the system since 1983. For the reverse strategy of borrowing low, investing high, the evidence since 1983 suggests significant profitable opportunities for the weaker EMS countries — Belgium, Denmark, France and Italy — unconditional on knowledge of the timing of realignments. We conclude that this is due to a peso problem type of premium.     

Economische orde,economische politiek en sociale politiek

Naar aanleiding van een bundel opstellen van dr J. Zijlstra, Economische Orde en Economische Politiek, H. E. Stenfert Kroese N.V., Leiden 1956, 143 blz. en een bundel opstellen van dr G. M. J. Veldkamp, Economische Orde en Sociale Politiek, H. E. Stenfert Kroese N.V., Leiden 1957, 156 blz.     

Forward exchange,short term capital flows and monetary policy

Summary This paper re-examines the relationships between short term capital flows and monetary policy, in the light of a new theoretical approach of the forward exchange market. They contend that the traditional forward exchange market theory is a misleading one as it fails to give all the importance it deserves to the distinction between covered and uncovered exchange transactions and to the actual role of the arbitrageurs. As a consequence of this analysis, they demonstrate that the problem of monetary management in an open economy must be dealt with in a way different from what has been usual, and they conclude that monetary policy, central banks' intervention on the foreign exchange market and direct controls on capital movements can still have some efficiency in the struggle against inflation, either of the domestic or the imported type.     

Problemen van planning op middellange termijn,gezien uit het gezichtspunt van het bedrijfsleven

Voordracht gehouden op 7 november 1964 in het kader van een door de Nederlandse Economische Hoogeschool te Rotterdam georganiseerde post-doctorale leergang over het onderwerp Problemen met betrekking tot de planning op middellange termijn in Europa.     

Aantekeningen bij de nadere beschouwingen over het begrip monetair evenwicht van Professor Kreukniet

P. B. Kreukniet, Monetair evenwicht revisited,De Economist, CXII (1964), pp. 386–401.     

Recente geschriften van J.-Ch. Snoy en M. Camps over de europese economische samenwerking

Jean-Charles Baron Snoy et d'Oppuers: Les Etapes de la Coopération Européenne et les Négociations relatives à une Zone de Libre Echange, Chronique de Politique Etrangére, Institut Royal des Relations Internationales, Brussel, september-november '59 (54 blz. plus 155 blz. bijlagen) La Négociation Européenne dans une Nouvelle Phase, Revue Générale Belge, Brussel, februari 1960 (18 blz.) Towards a European Solution, Lloyds Bank Review, London, juli 1960 (17 blz.)Miriam Camps: The Free Trade Area Negotiations, Occasional Paper No. 2, publication of Political and Economic Planning (PEP), Londen, april 1959 (51 blz.) Division in Europe, Occasional Paper No. 8, publications of PEP, Londen, juni 1960 (66 blz.) Britain, the Six and American Policy, Foreign Affairs, an American Quarterly Review, oktober 1960 (11 blz.) Four Approaches to the European Problem, Occasional Paper No. 12, publication of PEP, Londen, maart 1961 (26 blz.)     

Charles Kindleberger: An Impressionist in a Minimalist World

Minimalist economists stubbornly resist Charles Kindlebergers characterization of investor expectations in a financial bubble as irrational. This paper seeks to resolve the controversy by imbedding Kindlebergers well-researched, impressionistic theory of financial crises into an expanded, but still-minimalist model of rational expectations. Introducing the concepts of malicious disinformation and rational overpromotion creates an informational environment in which it is time-consuming and costly to distinguish fact from fiction. Rationality still requires that expectations and market fundamentals move together over long periods of time, but dishonorable overpromoters can earn substantial profits in the interim.     

De verantwoordelijkheid van de Staat als leningdebiteur met name in de onderontwikkelde gebieden

Het bovenstaande geeft de inhoud weer van een praeadvies uitgebracht voor het in september 1956 te Rome gehouden congres van het Institut International de Finances Publiques, gewijd aan Les effects économiques des dépenses publiques.     

Bijdrage tot de theorie van de commerciele prijspolitiek

Tweede lezing voor de Economische Faculteitsvereniging te Groningen, gehouden op 21 februari 1958. Zie voor de eerste lezing, Variaties op een thema van Böhm-Bawerk, De Economist, April 1957, blz. 292 e.v.     

ECB Foreign Exchange Intervention and the EURO: Institutional Framework,News, and Intervention

Using a unique intervention news data set, this paper investigates the impact of ECB intervention and intervention-related news (newswire reports) on the Euro exchange rate. A time-series study of news generated by ECB officials and market participants regarding intervention and the value of the Euro as well as an event study of firm reports of ECB intervention is conducted. Both studies find significant short-run effects on the Euro value, while only negative statements (official statements denying past intervention or ruling out future intervention) appear to have persistent effects.     

The economics of dying: A misapplication of tools

Conclusions Unlike McKenzie and Tullock, we do not know how personsshould treat their bodily organs or what is an ideal exit. That depends upon their utility goals, which are defined in output terms specific to the decision maker. We contend that the body is an input into the utility production process, and therefore, as with any input, it must be maintained and repaired at a level consistent with the output goals for maximization of utility. Thus, from this framework, it is quite consistent for a person to die with healthy organs without any thought of belief in reincarnation or the desire to bequeath one's bodily organs to others, or religious values. Self interest is all that must prevail.Also, the fact that there are interrelationships between the organs in the system, and at points these relationships take on fixed factor characteristics such that reduced levels of operation in one organ can create disorientation or coma or damage to other organs, means that the body cannot die as M-T suggest. Zero capacity for all organs at death is a technical impossibility as well as being inconsistent with the output goals of utility maximizers.     

Shocks and the Viability of a Fixed Exchange Rate Commitment

The incentive to renege on a commitment to a fixed exchange rate is shown to be state contingent. A fixed exchange rate policy is not viable under unusual circumstances, and the incentive to violate the commitment is larger in the case of contractionary shocks than in the case of expansionary shocks. The possibility that the exchange rate regime is changed in unusual circumstances has significant effects also under normal circumstances, implying systematic devaluation expectations, excessive real wages and (ex post) real rates of interest, lower output and loss of reserves, which in turn reduces the incentive to initiate a fixed exchange rate policy. Moreover, policyshifts may be contagious among countries.     

A chaotic model of the exchange rate: The role of fundamentalists and chartists

A monetary model of the exchange rate is constructed in which fundamentalists and chartists interact. It is shown that the non-linearity of this speculative dynamics leads to chaotic motion of the exchange rate. The model is also capable of generating some of the stylized facts of exchange rate dynamics.     

Substitution assumptions versus empirical evidence in manpower planning

Summary There exist basically two manpower planning methodologies. Firstly, the manpower requirements approach which stipulates that there are needs in the economy for given numbers of qualified persons in the labour force. Secondly, the rate of return approach which focuses on the costs and benefits of producing one extra qualified person at the margin.This paper contrasts the theoretical foundations of the two approaches with particular emphasis on the degree of substitution between different types of educated labour. The empirical evidence on elasticities of substitution is reviewed and it is concluded that the cost-benefit model fits better the real world.I am indebted to Dr. Christopher Dougherty for reading a draft of this paper and making many important corrections.     

Interpretation of error covariances with nonrandom data: An empirical illustration of returns to college education

Conclusion This paper reviews two models of selectivity and gives an interpretation of the covariance terms that are particular to self-selectivity models. While the second model examined in this paper has been discussed elsewhere, the estimates presented for the first model have not been discussed in previous papers. More importantly though, the paper proposes an hypothesis about the expected relationship between error covariances. According to this hypothesis, if all individuals who are faced with the choice between two regimes (1 and 2) choose the regime which yields a maximum value, then the expected relationship between covariances is ₁ < ₂ . If all individuals choose that regime which yields a minimum value, then the expected relationship between covariances is ₁ > ₂ . This relationship holds for a very general class of selectivity models, so long as individuals are choosing between regimes by comparing the expected value (to them) of each regime.This paper was written while I was working under the professional development program at CNA.     

Het N.V.-Recht En De Zelfstandigheid Van De Ondernemer

Naar aanleiding van het door de Dr. Wiardi Beckman Stichting in 1959 gepubliceerde rapport getiteld De hervorming van de onderneming.     

Tax Level and Tax Internalization Effects on Union Wage Bargaining

High taxes and generous social benefits are often blamed for causing unemployment. The conventional view is that if taxes on labour are (too) high, jobs will be lost and that generous social benefits will exert an upward pressure on unions' wage claims. In the case where unions co-ordinate their wage bargaining strategy, this need not be the case. A simple model is used to illustrate the effects of the tax rate level and tax internalization on unions' wage bargaining strategy. A high marginal tax rate along with endogeneity of the average tax rate shifts the union's trade-off between wages and employment in favour of the latter. These shifts may have contributed to the success of the so-called polder model or tulip model of the Netherlands.     

De Europese Economische Gemeenschap en de Minder Ontwikkelde Wereld Buiten de Geassocieerde Landen

Voordracht gehouden op 2 november 1963 te Amsterdam voor de postdoctorale leergang Externe economische betrekkingen van de E.E.G. De tekst is op enkele plaatsen bijgewerkt.     

The Applied Cointegration Analysis for the Open Economy: A Critical Review

Most applied cointegration investigations for the open macro economy rely on error correction models to infer causality, predictability, market efficiency, dominance, and market segmentation. The error correction model is well defined only when cointegration is due to simultaneous common factors. When common factors are not explicitly described as in a latent common factor model, however, error correction models are misspecified. Researchers should therefore be careful in using the error correction model for cointegrated time series to ensure that they are indeed generated from simultaneous common factor models. Analysts should investigate the exact nature of both long-run and short-run relationships by presenting a full-fledged simultaneous equations model. Without such an explicit simultaneous equations model, the presence of cointegration will only uncover the existence of a long-run relationship, but not causality, predictability, market efficiency, dominance, or market segmentation. A best practice will be prescribed for the proper use and interpretation of cointegration application.     

Money creation and economic activity

Summary In the Netherlands not much attention is paid to money supply figures as an indicator of actual monetary conditions. This can be partly explained by the publication lag and the continuous revisions of seasonally adjusted data. However, the information that can be derived from money supply figures is limited because of temporary disturbances originating from the foreign exchange market. In this paper a correction method for these temporary disturbances is proposed. Money supply figures show a much closer link to real economic activity when corrected in this way.A different version of this essay with less emphasis on Holland but more information about other West-European countries has been published as chapter II Watching the money supply in: Eduard J. Bomhoff,Monetary Uncertainty, Amsterdam and New York, 1983. We gratefully acknowledge the able research assistance of Isolde B. Woittiez and Geert Rouwenhorst; Kempen and Co. kindly provided the two figures.