Adaptation and Mitigation in Long-term Climate Policy

The paper analytically explores the optimal allocation of investments into mitigation and environmental adaptation against climate change damages at a macroeconomic level. The economic-environmental model is formulated as a social planner problem where adaptation and abatement investments are separate decision variables. The existence of a unique steady state is proven. A comparative static analysis of optimal investments leads to essential implications for associated long-term environmental policies. It is shown that the optimal policy mix between adaptation and mitigation is lower for countries with higher economic efficiency for all applicable parameter ranges. Data calibration and numerical simulations are provided to estimate practical validity of theoretical outcomes.     

国际资本流动模式及其国际经济影响模拟研究

国际资本流动是影响世界经济格局的重要因素,对中国未来的经济发展和在世界经济体系中的地位也起着关键性的作用.文章构建了一个经济一体化格局下包含创新机制的多国多部门的一般均衡模型,设计了两种国际资本流动模式,对不同国际资本流动模式驱使下各主要国家经济发展和产业分工格局进行了模拟.研究发现:(1)当前国际资本流动模式是介于投资回报率均衡模式和资本吸引力模式之间的混合模式,这种情景将使中国、印度等发展中国家获得较高的经济增长速度;(2)在混合模式情景下,各部门都存在产业重心从发达国家向发展中国家转移的趋势,劳动力密集型产业的转移幅度普遍高于资本密集型产业;(3)国际资本流动模式的改变对国家间经济关系和经济地位的变化具有显著影响:当国际资本流动完全遵循投资回报率均衡时,资本更倾向于流动到具有较大市场规模的发达国家,而当国际资本完全按照资本吸引力流动时,资本倾向于流动到发展中国家,而发达国家可能出现"再工业化"的现象.由于三种情景下均将长期处于资本净流出状态,中国需要制定合理的政策措施,对资本流动进行引导,提高资本吸收能力,突破当前国际资本流动格局的束缚.     

经济全球化对我国经济安全的影响及对策研究

21世纪的国际关系将走向一个新时代，传统的军事安全观在新的国际形势下已经显得越来越不和时宜，各主要大国已在研究和探索一种新的安全理念，即经济全球化使各国的国家安全与经济安全息息相关。对于我国而言，更是如此，经济全球化给中国经济带来的不仅仅是发展的有利条件和契机，在经济安全方面还存在着诸多压力和挑战，中国将面对怎样一种形势，如何制定新的战略和政策来维护自己的经济安全，这是我们不得不思考和研究的重大问题，也正是本的主要内容。     

区域经济差异、生产率的分解及收敛分析

本文以1990-2006年我国29个省区的数据为基础,通过数据包络分析(DEA)方法测算出各省区全要素生产率,进一步将劳动生产率的增长分解为技术效率、技术进步、物质资本积累和人力资本积累4个成分,考察4个成分对劳动生产率增长收敛性的影响.结果表明,随着时间的推移,全国平均Farrell技术效率呈下降趋势,落后地区与生产前沿面渐行渐远;我国区域劳动生产率增长是发散的,尽管物质资本积累对劳动生产率增长及收敛有显著影响,但技术进步最终促使我国省区劳动生产率增长存在发散效应.     

低碳农业发展核心目标:减缓和适应气候变化

减缓和适应是人类应对气候变化行动中两种相辅相成的措施。中国农业在应对气候变化中,减缓和适应同等重要:一方面,农业在减缓气候变化中具有独特的作用;另一方面,农业适应气候变化比减缓气候变化更为现实的迫切。积极发展低碳现代农业实现减排增汇,中国农业生态系统可以作为一种非常重要的固碳增汇措施,纳入全球CO2减排措施中去。中国低碳农业在减缓和适应气候变化中具有巨大潜力。     

Economic Growth,Productivity Gains and Foreign Capital: A Comment

Journal of Quantitative Economics -     

生产率冲击、随机趋势与经济波动

文章在新古典随机增长模型的框架下,扩展并简化了KPSW的计量经济学方法,并用它识别和测量了具有持久效应的生产率冲击对我国经济波动的影响.我们发现具有持久效应的生产率冲击不仅引起了这些变量长期趋势的随机变化,而且导致了投资和产出偏离随机趋势的短期波动.不过,生产率冲击的短期波动效应可能并不具有实际上的重要性.     

渭河下游历史洪涝灾害对农业经济发展的影响及其减灾措施研究

依据大量的历史文献资料,结合对洪涝灾害等级的划分,研究了渭河下游地区历史洪涝灾害对农业经济发展的影响,以及农业方面的减灾措施.研究表明,渭河下游地区历史时期的洪涝灾害,尤其是特大洪水灾害的频繁发生,对渭河下游地区的农田、农作物和粮食产量等均产生有重大的影响.为此,各代王朝积极采取一系列防洪减灾措施,如修筑水利工程、完善的仓储体系等,以减少洪水带来的农业灾害损失及影响.这为在当前气候变化引发的极端气候水文事件频繁发生的情况下,从历史的角度认识洪涝灾害对农业经济发展的影响具有重要的借鉴作用.     

经济增长、金融深化与全球经济失衡

文章建立了一个囊括经济增长、金融市场和资本流动等诸多因素的全球均衡模型,并采用ECM模型实证检验了这些因素对全球经济失衡的影响.研究发现,由于亚洲新兴国家和美国之间存在经济增长率的差异和非对称的金融市场,导致全球经济失衡.解决全球性经济失衡的根本出路在于改变现有的资产组合的供求关系,降低亚洲新兴国家对美元储备资产的需求,而美元贬值则并不能纠正全球经济失衡.     

Trade,Strategic Environmental Policy,and Global Pollution

This paper examines the effects of international trade in a model with global pollution that accumulates over time because of production emissions in each country. If countries cooperatively determine their environmental policies, autarky and free trade in the absence of trade costs generate the same optimal solution. By contrast, if environmental policies are determined noncooperatively, the effects of trade on global pollution and welfare are ambiguous because policy games can result in multiple equilibria. Although trade increases both the lower and upper bounds of the pollution stock, whether trade expands the range of possible steady‐state pollution levels is ambiguous. The analysis then extends to consider trade costs.     

出口强度、吸收能力与中国出口企业生产率

笔者采用2001年~2007年中国工业企业微观面板数据,基于所有制、资本密集度、企业规模等企业异质性,探索出口强度、吸收能力与生产率之间的关系。研究结果表明:中国出口企业存在生产率优势,但出口强度与生产率呈倒U型关系,一方面纯出口企业拉低了出口企业的整体水平,另一方面短期内负的学习效应导致生产率下降。吸收能力则有利于企业生产率的提高,对出口活动具有正向调节效应,即当吸收能力较强时,随着企业出口强度的增加,生产率有所提升。     

The Role of Non-Binding Pledges in Social Dilemmas with Mitigation and Adaptation

Environmental and Resource Economics - This study presents experimental results on the role that non-binding pledges have on the ability of groups to manage a threat of probabilistic group damages...     

Global warming and livestock husbandry in Kenya: Impacts and adaptations

This paper examines the economic impact of climate change on livestock production in Kenya. We estimate a Ricardian model of net livestock incomes and further estimate the marginal impacts of climate change. We also simulate the impact of different climate scenarios on livestock incomes. The Ricardian results show that livestock production in Kenya is highly sensitive to climate change and that there is a non-linear relationship between climate change and livestock productivity. The estimated marginal impacts suggest modest gains from rising temperatures and losses from increased precipitation. The predictions from atmospheric ocean general circulation models suggest that livestock farmers in Kenya are likely to incur heavy losses from global warming. The highest and lowest losses are predicted from the Hadley Centre Coupled model (HADCM) and Parallel Climate Model (PCM) respectively, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. The paper concludes that in the long term, climate change is likely to lead to increased poverty, vulnerability and loss of livelihoods. Several policy interventions are recommended to counter this impact.     

Export Growth,Capacity Utilization,and Productivity Growth: Evidence from the Canadian Manufacturing Plants

Aggregate labor and multifactor productivity growth slowed substantially post‐2000 in the Canadian manufacturing sector. To examine the source of the decline, this paper proposes a decomposition method that delves deeper into the two micro‐components of aggregate productivity growth: a within‐plant component and a between‐plant component. The decomposition builds on earlier work by Jorgenson and his collaborators that decomposes aggregate productivity growth into its industry components, but applies it to the plant level and introduces non‐neoclassical features of the plant‐level economic environment. It finds that the preponderance of the aggregate labor and multifactor productivity growth slowdown is due to the pro‐cyclical nature of productivity growth arising from capacity utilization. Almost all of the aggregate productivity growth slowdown is driven by exporters, as exporters experienced large declines in labor productivity growth in the post‐2000 period as a result of large declines in their capacity utilization.     

Productivity,Economic Growth and the Middle Income Trap： Implications for China

This paper explores the middle income trap （MIT） concept from the perspective of productivity growth. Through the examination of cross-country historical statistics as well as China＇s regional data, it sheds light on the debate about whether the Chinese economy can avoid the middle income trap. It should be one of the first papers proposing an analytical framework to address this controversial issue. The findings should have important implications for economic policies guiding China＇s development in the coming decades.     

Reconciling Economic Growth and Carbon Mitigation: Challenges and Policy Options in China

As the biggest carbon emitter in the world, China is facing tremendous pressure domestically and internationally. To promote the international efforts to tackle climate change, the Chinese government announced its 2020 carbon intensity target and is actively taking part in the international climate negotiations. In this paper, we review some of the climate burden-sharing proposals raised by Chinese scholars to shed some light on China's perspective on the post-Kyoto climate architecture. Then we summarize China's current pollution abatement policies and measures, and analyze some potential policy instruments for China to reconcile its future economic growth and carbon mitigation, as well as some practical design and enforcement issues to be considered for the near term.     

环境污染与经济增长、经济结构关系——基于东莞的实证研究

文章选取东莞市3项环境指标,运用相关分析和回归分析的方法,分析了环境污染与经济增长之间的关系及其对经济结构驱动的影响,发现1982～2007年东莞市人均废水排放量、人均废气排放量和大气能见度倒数与人均GDP的拟合曲线是三次曲线,人均废水和废气排放量总体上随人均GDP上升,能见度则随之下降.这3项指标与2项产业结构指标呈极显著的相关,东莞的环境污染变化主要是由经济模式和产业结构变化驱动的.