独生子女政策风险研究

独生子女家庭具有天然的结构性缺陷与系统性风险。中国计划生育已经陷入矛盾陷阱:一方面意识到独生子女家庭的结构性缺陷,对包括独生子女家庭在内的部分计划生育家庭实行补偿与救助,另一方面仍在继续鼓励更多独生子女的出现。独生子女政策在付出巨大的成本与代价后换来的却是高风险社会的来临,与"花钱买风险"无异。终止独生子女政策是规避独生子女家庭风险的必然选择。     

独生子女时代我国养老产业发展的SWOT分析

自20世纪70年代末我国实行计划生育政策以来,产生了为数众多的独生子女家庭。随着独生子女家庭的增多,父母的养老问题越来越受到社会的广泛关注,成为家庭和社会的一个突出矛盾。如何应对独生子女家庭的父母养老问题无疑需要养老产业的快速发展。因此,采用SWOT方法对当前我国养老产业进行分析,提出相应的对策建议,以期有利于推动养老产业的快速发展,来应对"未富先老"状况下人口老龄化所带来的挑战,从而提升我国老人的生命质量和晚年生活幸福指数。     

独生子女政策的精神健康成本

本文运用广义倍差法系统探讨了独生子女政策对精神健康的影响。独生子女政策使得独生子女在家庭受到过分宠爱,但当他们离开家庭走向独立时,却面临激烈的社会竞争。这一转变提升了他们的压力水平,恶化了他们的精神健康状况。基于全国残疾人抽样调查和中国家庭跟踪调查数据的实证分析结果表明,独生子女政策推行后,步入社会的青年组相对于少年组的精神残疾率的上升幅度在显著扩大,且这一变化对于男性和独生子女尤为明显。另外,相对于女性,独生子女政策推行之后出生的男性比这之前出生的男性的精神状况(情绪郁闷或精神紧张)的恶化程度更明显,且这一模式对于独生子女更显著。本文揭示了独生子女政策的精神健康成本,有助于更全面地反思独生子女政策。     

城市独生子女家庭养老风险探析

自1970年我国推行计划生育政策以来,我国城市中形成了大量独生子女家庭.面对社会的急剧变迁,独生子女家庭的养老问题已成为不可忽视的社会问题.本文基于贝克风险社会理论视角,阐述独生子女家庭的父母在养老方式选择上的差异,分析养老问题上存在的风险因素,并从制度完善、家庭支持和社会网络建构三方面提出规避养老风险的政策建议.     

“啃老”:事实还是偏见——基于中国4城市青年调查数据的实证分析

青年的"啃老"现象引起了广泛的社会关注。基于家庭代际交换理论,从日常生活及住房两个维度,量化界定"啃老"概念,对中国已婚青年的"啃老"现状进行实证研究,探索影响因素及其强度,特别关注独生子女与流动人口群体的"啃老"特征。中国已婚青年确实存在较为普遍的"啃老"行为,但主要表现在住房资源维度;独生子女在住房及日常的家庭代际交换中更倾向于"啃老"和"强啃老";流动减少了青年的"啃老"风险,但未显著提高其对父代的赡养可能性。已婚青年的年龄、受教育程度、户口性质、经济收入与父代特征等也是显著的影响因素。     

成年子女照料者角色经历的性别差异研究

通过对15名成年子女照料者的质性研究,"养儿防老"、"嫁夫随夫"、"男主外、女主内"和"女儿也是传后人"等新旧观念相互交织,成年子女在养老责任担当方面"性别差异"发生了新变化;儿子、女儿和儿媳照料经历也因此各不相同。成年子女的种种照料负担和压力反映了当前老龄化社会中独生子女家庭面临的照料困境,为家庭照料者提供各种社会支持服务是十分必要的。     

第一代城市独生子女家庭及其养老问题研究综述

在对已有的相关研究结论和数据进行分类和总结的基础上,主要以文献研究法总结分析了第一代城市独生子女的规模、家庭结构、伤亡风险等基本内容。对第一代独生子女家庭未来可能面临的养老问题进行了深入讨论,并从经济支持、日常生活照顾和精神赡养等三方面对目前的独生子女家庭养老观点和结论进行了梳理归纳。期望通过总括性和前瞻性的探讨来应对和缓解即将到来的独生子女家庭"少子高龄化"养老危机。     

独生子女的商业保险购买决策——基于中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）数据的证据

独生子女政策无疑是过去三十余年间对中国家庭以及人口结构影响最为深远的政策之一，独生子女的“独”这一特性可能通过多种渠道影响家庭的商业保险购买决策。本文基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据发现相比于非独生子女，独生子女家庭购买商业保险的概率反而更低。为了解释这一结果，本文从金融知识、风险态度、社会互动和信任度四个渠道分别进行考察。其中，前两个因素主要与保险能分散风险这一功能属性相关，而后两个因素则体现出保险因信息不对称而与生俱来的信用属性。结果显示，给定其经济水平，独生子女更少购买家庭商业保险的原因，并非是他们在金融知识和风险态度上与非独生子女存在明显差异，而是由于他们在社会互动和信任度方面明显弱于非独生子女，正是这种“社会性”的缺乏导致独生子女更少购买家庭商业保险。     

北京城市女性独生子女生育意愿和生育行为研究

利用北京市人口研究所两次独生子女问卷调查所获第一手资料,对北京城市女性独生子女婚育群体进行考察。在生育意愿方面,女性调查对象的意愿生育水平呈现偏低发展走向,但二孩生育意愿出现明显上升,不过对于生育"政策二孩"的选择呈现明显的矛盾心理和不确定性;在实际婚育状况方面,初婚初育时间在后移,婚后离开父母单独居住开始增多,孩子以双方父母照料为主。政府应积极鼓励双独夫妻生育两个孩子,发挥"政策二孩"生育对于缓解人口结构快速老化的功能。     

统筹承续 民需我为 建立健全生育关怀行动长效机制

以"生育传承希望,关怀相伴和谐"为主题的生育关怀行动自2007年启动以来,以关怀计划生育困难家庭、关怀育龄群众生殖健康、关怀独生子女、关怀女孩健康成长、关怀基层计划生育工作者为主要目标,产生了积极而广泛的社会影响。     

A Rich Vein for “Reality Mining”北大核心CSSCISSCI

Arik Hesseldahl In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, U.S. officials quickly turned their attention to other potential targets, including California's Golden Gate Bridge. What would happen if terrorists took down the bridge between San Francisco and Marin County? How much of the region would be affected and for how long?     

John Stuart Mill's Theory Of Justice

John Stuart Mill has traditionally been portrayed as self-contradictory and failing to construct a unified social theory. Recent scholarship, however, has challenged this view, finding Mill's work to be creatively synthetic in bridging the antinomies inherent in liberal democratic thought. This revisionist interpretation of Mill is advanced by an understanding of his theory of justice and its role in shaping his policy positions on issues such as welfare, education, voting rights, property rights, taxation, government intervention, and the future of capitalism.     

中国养活自己能力的长期预测:技术和政策分析

中国拥有世界五分之一强的人口 ,收入又在迅速增长。因此 ,国际上很自然地会考虑或推测她在今后的几十年是否有能力养活自己。中国的人口预计将从 2 0 0 0年的 1 2 8亿增长到 2 0 2 0年的 1 4 6亿 ,和 2 0 3 0年的 1 4 9亿。与此同时 ,人均收入的增长将导致对家畜和鱼类产品更大的需求 ,因而对饲料的需求也将有很大的增长     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Toward a Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Organizational Life

Synopsis Classification is an important activity that facilitates theory development in many academic disciplines. Scholars in fields such as organizational science, management science and economics and have long recognized that classification offers an approach for ordering and understanding the diversity of organizational taxa (groups of one or more similar organizational entities). However, even the most prominent organizational classifications have limited utility, as they tend to be shaped by a specific research bias, inadequate units of analysis and a standard neoclassical economic view that does not naturally accommodate the disequilibrium dynamics of modern competition. The result is a relatively large number of individual and unconnected organizational classifications, which tend to ignore the processes of change responsible for organizational diversity. Collectively they fail to provide any sort of universal system for ordering, compiling and presenting knowledge on organizational diversity. This paper has two purposes. First, it reviews the general status of the major theoretical approaches to biological and organizational classification and compares the methods and resulting classifications derived from each approach. Definitions of key terms and a discussion on the three principal schools of biological classification (evolutionary systematics, phenetics and cladistics) are included in this review. Second, this paper aims to encourage critical thinking and debate about the use of the cladistic classification approach for inferring and representing the historical relationships underpinning organizational diversity. This involves examining the feasibility of applying the logic of common ancestry to populations of organizations. Consequently, this paper is exploratory and preparatory in style, with illustrations and assertions concerning the study and classification of organizational diversity.     

Information infrastructure: Who builds broadband networks?

This paper examines the essential difference between the U.S. and Japan, when one considers information infrastructure. There are seven perception gaps between the U.S. and Japan concerning Information Infrastructure policies. These gaps must be understood in order to compare the countries' governmental policies in this area. In looking at the present circumstances, the essential question to answer concerns who is to build, own and operate the network(s) of the infrastructure. Liberalization is certain to be a central factor in the ongoing telecommunications debates. Now that customers have had a taste of the liberalized market-place, the movement toward more open markets will be difficult to stop. When considering options, it is necessary to pay close attention to standardized network access and the increasingly important role software plays. These issues are causing us to take a new approach to the traditional role played by regulators. They also force a closer look at the appropriate structure of utility companies. This paper addresses the above issues in hopes of stimulating dialog on the new telecommunications infrastructure paradigm.     

Nonlinearity in Stock Exchange Markets: The Case of Bist 100 Indices

In this paper,using data for the Bist 100 index,we investigate the presence of nonlinearities by employing several nonlinearity tests.The Brock,Dechert,and Sche...     

Solidified Branding Function: How the Urban Brand Affects a Small Town’s Development? Case Study of Wangqingtuo,Tianjin, China

Chinese small towns are usually developed with single core industry,and the urban brand is the identity of a town that formed with the development of its indust...     

海岛地区产业演替及资源基础分析--以舟山群岛为例

改革开放以来,舟山市产业构成发生了显著变化,其经济发展过程可以划分为三个阶段。1992年前,是以产业结构渔业占绝对地位的单一结构阶段;1993—1998年,以旅游业为主的第三产业快速发展阶段;上世纪末以来,又进入了新一轮的经济发展时期,即工业产值比重快速增加阶段。根据海岛的自然资源基础和特点,在新世纪的经济发展过程中,舟山市应定位为生态型的港口旅游城市。以港口及临港工业为主导,以海岛旅游和海洋经济为特色,大力发展第二产业和第三产业。海岛地区的主导产业应体现海岛资源优势及区位优势,以集群性环保型产业为主。同时由于海岛地区淡水资源缺乏,主导产业也应着重选择低耗水型产业。