婚姻对男性死亡风险的影响——立足于对清代辽东旗人社会的考察

利用中国多世代人口数据库——辽宁部分(CMGPD-LN),运用离散时间事件史分析技术和logit模型,研究了1749-1909年清代辽东旗人社会中男性的婚姻与死亡水平、死亡风险的关系。婚姻对于男性具有保护作用,在婚男性的死亡风险要低于不在婚男性;logit模型结果表明,未婚和丧偶男性的死亡风险要显著高于初婚男性,中青年未婚男性的死亡风险高于初婚男性,而老年未婚男性的死亡风险比初婚男性低。     

中国贫困代际传递及动态趋势实证研究

文章运用CHNS调查数据,对城乡居民家庭贫困代际传递及动态趋势进行了研究。静态分析表明:农村贫困代际传递机会要明显大于城市,且城乡差距明显;个体行业差异显著影响个体贫困发生机会,但父辈行业差异对子代贫困发生机会的代际影响不明显,健康、教育降低子代贫困作用巨大,同等条件下女性贫困发生机会要高于男性,贫困发生机会与年龄呈"U"关系。动态分析表明:虽然中国整体面的贫困水平逐年下降,但贫困代际传递机会基本呈上升趋势;农村贫困代际传递机会大于城市;城乡子代贫困机会差距自20世纪90年代以来在拉大。     

中国人口结构变化趋势分析

20世纪90年代以来,我国人口结构在年龄结构、城乡结构和教育结构等方面发生了显著变化:少儿抚养比不断下降,老年抚养比不断上升;城镇人口比重不断提高;高学历人口占总人口的比重不断提高.     

资本没有侵占劳动

20世纪90年代中期以来.我国的国民收入分配发生了显著变化,劳动收入份额出现持续下降的态势。许多人将矛头指向了资本对劳动的侵占.这一论断在各界引起了强烈反响。但是鲜有研究对以下问题予以严谨论证：一是我国劳动收入份额的真实变化幅度.二是劳动收入份额下降的主要原因,三是有效对策。     

西方福利经济学的沉浮

西方福利经济学的发展历尽了沉浮：19世纪70年代以前,它一直保持着伦理学的传统;19世纪70年代到20世纪初,它走入了低谷;20世纪20年代,旧福利经济学的产生打破了它发展的沉寂,福利经济学重新受到重视;20世纪30年代的一次大争论发生了一次大的转折：旧福利经济学被新福利经济学所取代,新福利经济学流行于20世纪30、40年代;在经过了20世纪50、60年代的徘徊时期之后,它从20世纪70年代开始进入了一个大发展的时期,并且出现了向效用主义和基数效用理论的回归趋势。     

我国中长期粮食安全若干重大问题研究综述

20世纪50年代末60年代初,三年自然灾害导致几千万人非正常死亡的惨痛教训,加之改革开放以来我国粮食安全形势的几次变化,使国家领导人和社会各界都对粮食安全问题格外敏感。尽管20世纪90年代以来有关粮食安全的研究成果相当多,但随着粮食供求形势的不断变化,进入21世纪后,一些研究成果的结论已经过时,新的粮食安全问题又逐渐显露,但这些领域的研究尚不充分。一、粮食安全概念与粮食安全目标(一)多视角的粮食安全观。联合国粮农组织(1974)提出,保证任何人在任何地方都能得到为了生存和健康所需要的足够食品。曾任粮农组织总干事的爱德华·萨…     

太平洋海水作饮料?

比邻太平洋的加利福尼亚州是美国人口最多的州，但水资源却相对匮乏。该州90％的用水从259英里(400公里)以外导流而来，最主要的水源是科罗拉多河。自上个世纪70年代以来，科罗拉多河出现水位持续下降、污染日益严重的现象，上世纪70年代到90年代间更发生了几次让人们至今余悸未消的大干旱。水源问题的恶化以及水运输成本的不断提高把寻求替代水源的问题提上了     

中国经济高速增长与石油供应安全保障

自20世纪90年代以来。中国经济取得了近10％的增长率。随着经济的高速增长,中国的能源消费结构发生了重大的变化。媒炭在一级能源消费总量中所占的比率从20世纪80年代的年平均75％下降到2001年的67％。与此相反,石油所占的比率则从17.1％提高到30.1％。     

如何看待当前出现的全球通货紧缩趋势

一、当前世界经济面临的通货紧缩风险日益增大自20世纪70年代以来,世界许多国家和地区都普遍出现了通货膨胀率持续显著下降的趋势,除石油外各类产品价格都不同程度地下降。据世界银行统计,以国内生产总值平减指数(GDPdeflator)计算,世界通货膨胀率在20世纪70年代为9.0%,80年代和90年代持续降低到5.8%和3.7%,而2001年和2002年进一步降至2.3%和1.7%。其中,美、欧、日等工业化国家的通胀率在20世纪70、80和90年代分别为8.7%、4.6%和2.0%,2001年和2002年进一步降至1.5%和1.1%;亚洲新兴工业经济体的通货膨胀率在20世纪70、80和90年代分别为9.5%…     

我国节能降耗的形势与对策

尽管我国万元GDP能耗水平与发达国家有较大差距,但由于我国正处在重化工业的加速发展阶段,能耗水平已不再可能像20世纪80年代到90年代初那样快速下降,而是进入了低速下降甚至小幅增长的阶段。为实现“十一五”节能降耗的目标,我国应以重化工业、建筑和交通为重点,进一步优化产业结构,加快技术进步,深化改革并完善政府考核方式。     

我国城镇居民的健康需求与Grossman模型——来自截面数据的证据

本文从人力资本的角度用Grossman模型来分析我国城镇居民的健康需求。利用中国健康和营养调查(2000)数据,我们有以下主要发现:(1)与收入的不平等形成对比,城镇居民健康状况的分布比较均衡;(2)女性的教育程度对健康有正的影响,而男性的教育程度对健康的影响不显著;(3)年龄对男性健康的影响比女性大;(4)收入或工资水平对健康的影响不显著。总体而言女性比男性更符合Grossman模型的预测。     

城市两性初婚年龄模式分析——基于中国综合社会调查2005年度数据

国人婚配年龄的变迁,一直缺乏长期性数据;婚配市场的实际情况,也缺乏实证性的长期数据。利用CGSS2005数据,对五代人(20世纪20年代—20世纪70年代)的平均初婚年龄的变化、趋势加以研究,对男性和女性初婚年龄、早婚、不婚、晚婚、集中成婚等进行了横向和纵向的比较,揭示了各自独立和彼此承接的关系和特点。     

Recent trends in age-specific mortality in India

"In this paper we have analyzed the data from the Sample Registration System [SRS] on mortality by age and sex [in India] since 1970. Some of the major conclusions emerging from this analysis are: (i) Mortality has declined more rapidly among infants, children under 15 years and women of reproductive ages....(ii) Among adults, mortality has declined more rapidly among females than among males, the differential gain being largest in the age span 25-49. But in ages under 15, there is no evidence to suggest a gender differential in mortality decline. (iii) Among children and women of reproductive ages, mortality has declined more rapidly in urban areas than in rural areas but the reverse is true in the case of adult men.... The paper also analyzes the trends in mortality in major states of India during 1970-86." The authors observe a significant shift in patterns between 1978 and 1979, and conclude that this may be limited to changes in SRS data collection techniques.     

Climate change, health and migration in urban China

In this paper, I empirically investigate the effect of climate change on health and migration in China. Using urban survey data sets from different Chinese cities, I find that an increase in female morbidity is associated with current high temperature change, especially for the symptom of frailty; past hot weather is related to the exacerbation of health problems in women, and the effect on females is larger than that on males who migrate from rural areas to cities; past temperature change is also correlated with a higher probability of chronic symptoms for females. I also find that migration preference from a rural area to a city is correlated with avoiding exposure to hot weather shocks, which shows a regressive tendency. Finally, the migration preferences of male residents who migrate from one city to another city are not associated with the effects of past low temperature changes on health.     

A parametric investigation of mortality transition in India: 1970-89

"This paper attempts to analyze mortality transition in India during [the] 1970s and 1980s through the modelling of the age pattern of mortality by applying the Heligman-Pollard model mortality schedule. The analysis reveals that mortality transition in India has not been uniform in all the age [or sex] groups....Middle-life mortality has been found to be more or less unchanged during the period under reference. Implications of the age pattern of mortality transition [on] health policy [are also] discussed."     

The effective tax rate and the pretax rate of return

This paper presents new estimates of the taxes paid on nonfinancial corporate capital, on the pretax rate of return to capital, and on the effective tax rate. The basic time series show that both the pretax rate of return and the effective tax rate have varied substantially in the past quarter century.An explicit analysis indicates that, after adjusting for different aspects of the business cycle, pretax profitability was between one and 1.5 percentage points lower in the 1970s than in the 1960s. The rate of profitability in the 1960s was also about one-half of a percentage point greater than the profitability in the 7 years of the 1950s after the Korean war.Changes in productivity growth, in inflation, in relative unit labor costs, and in other variables are all associated with changes in profitability. None of these variables, however, can explain the differences in profitability between the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s.Looking at broad decade averages, the effective tax rate and the pretax rate of return move in opposite directions, lower pretax profits occuring when the tax rate is high. There thus appears to have been no tendency for pretax profits to vary in a way that offsets differences in effective tax rates.     

The Effect of Equal Pay for Females on the Composition of Employment in Australia*

Equal pay for female workers in Australia resulted in marked increases in labour costs. These varied across industries. However. changes in the industrial structure induced by equal pay are found to contribute little by way of explanation for the relatively faster growth of female than male employment in the 1970s.     

Mortality change,the uncertainty effect,and retirement

We examine the role of declining mortality in explaining the rise of retirement over the course of the twentieth century. We construct a model in which individuals make labor/leisure choices over their lifetimes subject to uncertainty about their dates of death. In an environment with high mortality, an individual who saves for retirement faces a high risk of dying before he can enjoy his planned leisure. In this case, the optimal plan is for people to work until they die. As mortality falls, however, it becomes optimal to plan, and save for, retirement. We analyze our model using two mathematical formulations of the survival function as well as data on actual changes in the US life table over the last century, and show that this “uncertainty effect” of declining mortality would have more than outweighed the “horizon effect” by which rising life expectancy would have led to later retirement.     

The changing economic status of U.S. disabled men: Trends and their determinants, 1982–1991

We track the level of economic well-being of the population of men who began receiving Social Security Disability Insurance benefits in 1980–81 from the time just after they became beneficiaries (in 1982) to 1991. We present measures of the economic well-being of disabled individuals and their nondisabled peers as indicators of the relative economic position of these two groups. These measures also provide an intertemporal comparison of well-being and hardship as disabled persons and their nondisabled peers age and retire. We first show several economic well-being indicators for new male recipients of disability benefits in 1982 and 1991. We then compare their economic position to that of a matched group of nondisabled males with sufficient work histories to have been disability-insured. Because labor market changes over this decade have led to a relative deterioration in the position of younger and less-educated workers, we compare men with disabilities to those without disabilities and distinguish different age and educational levels within the groups. We conclude by assessing the antipoverty effectiveness of Social Security income support for both younger and older male SSDI recipients. First version received: May 1998/final version received: July 1999