影响出生性别比升高的社会经济文化背景研究—2000年全国人口普查县级资料多因素分析报告

根据2000年第五次人口普查结果,我国出生人口性别比已经达到116.86。出生人口性别比的升高是社会文化经济因素共同作用的结果。对全国2869个县级单位的五普数据进行了多因素分析.就全国来看,妇女社会地位对出生人口性别比影响最显著,其次是传统文化和经济发展的影响。要切实提高妇女地位,促进男女平等,使出生性别比恢复自然平衡。     

长江经济带人口健康水平的空间格局及影响因素

以长江经济带2010年的131个地级单元为研究对象,采用空间自相关、逐步回归、地理加权回归方法分析了长江经济带人口健康水平的空间格局及影响因素。结果表明:①长江经济带人口健康水平呈现下游高、中游次之、上游最低的东西梯度分异格局,健康水平的区域差异显著,健康公平性有待提高。②长江经济带人口健康水平受自然、经济社会因素综合影响,千人卫生机构数、平均受教育年限、人均GDP对人口健康水平有显著正向影响,海拔、气温对人口健康水平有显著负向影响。③自然、经济社会因素对人口健康水平的影响具有显著的空间异质性,人均GDP对人口健康水平的正向影响呈现东强西弱的梯度分异,千人卫生机构数、平均受教育年限对人口健康水平的正向影响则呈现西强东弱的梯度分异,海拔、气温对人口健康水平的负向影响呈现东强西弱的梯度分异。     

全面开展“五关爱”活动 加强人口安全能力建设

2004年,吉林省全面开展人口和计划生育“五关爱”活动(关爱计划生育家庭,强化政策导向,稳定低生育水平;关爱新生儿,减少出生缺陷,提高出生人口素质;关爱女孩,倡导男女平等,促进出生人口性别比平衡;关爱育龄群众,增进生殖健康,建设文明幸福家庭;关爱计划生育困难人群,实施扶助创业,推进脱贫致富)。这是新时期人口计划生育工作的新路子,是促进人的全面发展,推动人口与经济、社会、资源、环境协调发展和可持续发展,增强人口安全能力的有效途径。一、“五关爱”活动涵盖了人口安全能力建设的重要内容所谓人口安全,是指一个国家的综合国力和国家…     

对河南农村出生人口性别比现状的实证分析

2005年全国1%人口抽样调查数据和河南省第六次全国人口普查相关数据都表明,河南农村出生人口性别比失衡仍然严重。对实地调查结果进行分析其形成原因在于：普遍的对男孩的性别偏好;计划生育政策的执行不力;计划生育户社会保障普遍较弱等。     

浅谈性别比失衡

中国是一个人口大国,上世纪70年代,国家实行计划生育政策,中国出生率大大下降,高人口红利、 改革开放等因素的影响使中国经济迅速发展,但是在短暂的人口红利过后,中国迅速进入了老龄化社会.老年口增多的同时男女性别比也出现问题,男多女少的情况下.容易造成婚姻挤压、 不稳定因素增加等社会问题的出现,那么性别比失衡出现的原因及目前放开二胎政策会不会对这些有影响?我在下文内将大致论述这两个问题.     

计划生育政策是否促进了中国经济增长?——基于教育人力资本视角的理论和经验研究

本文在新古典经济增长模型中纳入教育人力资本因素,构建了刻画人口增长率和人口抚养比对经济增长影响的理论模型,并使用中国29个省区1990²010年的面板数据对模型进行了经验检验,研究发现:人口增长率和人口抚养比对中国经济增长产生了显著的负向影响,从而说明计划生育政策通过控制人口出生率降低了抚养比和人口增长率,有利于人力资本的积累,为中国的经济增长做出了贡献。因此,至少对我国经济增长而言,计划生育政策功不可没,是需要长期坚持的基本国策。     

中国的可持续发展:人口、资源、环境现状与政策建议

一、我国人口、资源、环境的现状 (一)人口政策的实施取得显著成效,人口实现低增长。 自20世纪80年代计划生育政策实施以来,全国累计少出生3亿多人。“九五”期间,妇女总和生育率保持在2.1的更替水平以下,我国人口再生产实现了从高出生、低死亡、高增长到低出生、低     

中国二氧化碳EKC曲线扩展模型的空间计量分析

本文以1999—2010年中国30个省、市、区为研究对象,基于空间动态面板数据,将能源强度、空间相关性引入二氧化碳的EKC曲线当中,构建了中国二氧化碳EKC曲线的空间计量模型,实证分析了中国二氧化碳EKC曲线的存在性及空间溢出效应。研究结果显示:(1)中国人均二氧化碳排放与经济增长之间基本满足EKC曲线假定的倒U型关系。(2)一个地区的人均二氧化碳排放不仅取决于自身的经济发展水平与能源利用效率等内因,还受到邻近区域人均二氧化碳排放的影响以及周围地区经济发展中不可观测因素的影响。(3)空间滞后模型的总体拟合效果优于空间误差模型,相对于经济距离,地理距离对地区经济活动的空间相关性影响更大。地区间的不可观测因素对空间相关性的影响起了主导作用。(4)能源强度越低,能源消费的二氧化碳排放水平越低。人均二氧化碳的经济拐点为101276元,中国目前正处于二氧化碳EKC曲线的左端。     

兼顾效率和平衡的城市空间结构——基于中国城市数据的经验研究

以2001—2017年中国276个地级城市为研究样本,通过构建经济-社会-环境三维分析框架探究城市空间结构对经济-环境效率和平衡发展的影响。研究发现：单中心结构能够显著提升经济-环境效率和平衡发展综合绩效表现,但城市人口规模越高,多中心结构越有利于实现城市效率和平衡的兼顾发展。单中心结构与空间干预政策组合或多中心结构搭配空间中性政策能够实现经济-环境效率和平衡发展的“多赢”;进一步将空间干预政策细分为环境污染监管政策和积分落户政策,发现通过采用积分落户政策以控制人口规模降低了效率和平衡的综合绩效表现,而提高对环境污染问题的监管则显著提升了综合绩效。综上,单中心结构+空间干预政策和多中心结构+空间中性政策的组合分别从形态和政策导向视角说明了绿色经济会在空间集聚中走向平衡。     

胎次-激化双重效应:中国生育政策与出生性别比关系的理论构建与实证研究

通过构建"胎次-激化双重效应"理论模型,解读生育政策与出生性别比关联的潜在机制,并利用宏观数据予以检验。政策与出生性别比的失衡存在直接和间接双重关系;生育政策的刚性制约和一孩半生育政策赋予胎次和激化效应特殊含义:(1)一孩政策地区低胎的出生性别比偏高、一孩半政策地区二胎及以上胎次的出生性别比极度失衡,显现"激化效应";(2)政策的多样性使部分低位女胎与男胎一样受欢迎,使一孩半政策及二孩政策地区低胎的出生性别比趋于正常,产生"胎次效应"。可见,政策越强,低位和高位女胎都不受重视,均会遭遇人工流产;相反,在相对宽松的政策环境下,低位女胎所受的歧视程度相对减弱。     

二孩政策地区经验的普适性及其相关问题——兼对“21世纪中国生育政策研究”的评价

在仔细研读"21世纪中国生育政策研究"课题系列研究报告的基础上,认为二孩政策试点成效卓著,试点经验具有普适性,但同时也存在某些局限。国家与学者应切实承担起指导中国基层人口与计划生育工作实践的责任。生育政策、生育水平、出生性别比、计划生育工作之间并非简单的线性关系,在生育政策制定与调整中价值判断与事实判断两者不可偏废。部分省份某些计划生育利益导向政策缺乏正当性,应该予以废除。     

Climate change,health care access and regional influence on components of U.S. agricultural productivity

This article examines factors driving three components of total factor productivity change (TFPC) in U.S. agriculture – technical change (TC), technical efficiency change (TEC), and scale and mix efficiency change (SMEC). We also examine TFPC and contrast implications derived from the component models with those from a directly estimated TFPC model. Our results show that TC and SMEC are both significantly impacted by innovation through public research and improved human capital through education and health care access. TEC and SMEC are significantly affected by farm size, and the latter is significantly affected by public policy. The ratio of family-to-total labour, terms of trade and precipitation have significant impacts on all three components, but extension has no significant impact on any component. Climate change variables are the most impactful factors on each component as well as on TFPC. While the impact of climate change is heterogeneous across regions and components, its estimated historical impact is most often positive. Nearly all TFPC elasticities estimated directly are qualitatively the same as those calculated from the component models and quantitatively similar.     

Spatial and economic patterns in life expectancy among US States

This study investigates the determinants of gender-specific life expectancy across US states over the period 1995–2007. We employ a production function specification where life expectancy depends on health expenditure, income, education and lifestyle variables, allowing for spatial effects. Empirical results suggest that education attainment and health expenditure are the main factors behind improving longevity, whereas smoking bears a strong negative influence. For robustness purposes, we also use health spending as well as education criteria, apart from geographical ones to model interstate spillovers. In the former case, states with similar health expenditure are ‘neighbors’ and affect positively the life expectancy process. If education is applied instead of health spending together with geographic proximity, the spatial correlation is insignificant, i.e. education ‘neighbors’ do not affect life expectancy. Our findings do not imply significant gender differences regarding health production. The results suggest that health care policy will have to focus on wider economic and social considerations, like education and lifestyle changes, except medical care provision in order to exploit the full potential for life expectancy improvements of the US population.     

中国出生性别比偏高的长期人口后果

20世纪80年代以来,中国的人口出生性别比出现了迅速、持续增高的现象和趋势,这对未来中国人口的发展会产生不可忽视的影响。根据不同的性别比方案预测我国人口未来百年的发展状况,考察出生性别比偏高对人口总量、出生人口规模、总人口抚养比以及婚姻市场的性别比等产生的影响。出生性别比偏高会降低出生人口规模、加速人口老龄化以及造成婚姻挤压等人口后果。     

Fertility,Female Labor Supply,and Family Policy

The present paper develops an overlapping generations general equilibrium model for Germany in order to study the impact of public policy on household labor supply and fertility decisions. Starting from a benchmark equilibrium which reflects the current German family policy regime we introduce various reforms of the tax and child benefit system and quantify the consequences for birth rates and female labor supply. Our simulations indicate three central results: First, higher transfers to families (either direct, in‐kind or via family splitting) may increase birth rates significantly, but they may come at the cost of lower female employment. Second, the introduction of individual taxation (instead of joint taxation of couples) would increase female employment but might further reduce current birth rates in Germany. Third, it is possible to increase birth rates and female employment rates simultaneously if the government invests in child care facilities for children of all ages.     

Economic and other determinants of infant and child mortality in small developing countries: the case of Central America and the Caribbean

This analysis involves empirically testing a theoretical model among 22 Central American and Caribbean countries during the 1990s that explains differences in infant and child mortality. Explanatory measures capture demographic, economic, health care, and educational characteristics. The model is expected to allow for an assessment of the potential impact of structural adjustment and external debt. It is pointed out that birth rates and child mortality rates followed similar patterns over time and between countries. In this study's regression analyses all variables in the three models that explain infant mortality are exogenous: low birth weight, immunization, gross domestic product per capita, years of schooling for women, population/nurse, and debt as a proportion of gross national product. As nations became richer, infant mortality declined. Infant mortality was lower in countries with high external debt. In models for explaining the birth rate and the child mortality rate, the best fit included variables for debt, real public expenditure on health care, water supply, and malnutrition. Analysis in a simultaneous model for 10 countries revealed that the birth rate and the child mortality rate were more responsive to shocks in exogenous variables in Barbados than in the Dominican Republic, and more responsive in the Dominican Republic than in Guatemala. The impact of each exogenous variable varied by country. In Barbados education was four times more effective in explaining the birth rate than water. In Guatemala, the most effective exogenous variable was malnutrition. Child mortality rates were affected more by multiplier effects. In richer countries, the most important impact on child survival was improved access to safe water, and the most important impact on the birth rate was increased real public expenditure on education per capita. For the poorest countries, findings suggest first improvement in malnutrition and then improvement in safe water supplies. Structural adjustment variables were found to have small impacts on the birth rate or limited impacts on child survival in poorer countries.     

人口结构变化对消费结构及储蓄率的影响分析

利用1995年、2002年和2007年的CHIPS(China Household Income Projects)数据实证分析了家庭人口结构变化对城乡居民家庭消费结构和储蓄率的影响。家庭收入、规模大小、户主年龄和家庭不同年龄人口占比等家庭人口结构变量对消费结构和储蓄率都有一定的影响。就消费结构来说,如教育支出方面,老年家庭明显低于年轻家庭;医疗保障支出方面,老年家庭明显高于年轻家庭。同时,研究表明我国城镇和农村家庭的户主年龄与储蓄率略呈U型结构,也就是说我国家庭微观储蓄率与经典的生命周期假设不一致。进一步探讨了未来家庭人口结构变化对中国家庭储蓄率和经济结构的影响以及相关政策涵义。     

二十世纪中国育龄人群男女性相对死亡风险的两次显著变化

利用我国1930—2000年不同时期的生命表资料,分析了20世纪30年代以来我国育龄人群男女性相对死亡风险的变化,探讨了我国生殖健康政策在变化中的作用。20世纪我国育龄人群男女性相对死亡风险有两次显著变化。第一次显著变化是在育龄人群死亡风险处在较高水平上发生的。在上个世纪50年代之前,育龄女性的死亡风险高于育龄男性,到50年代育龄女性死亡风险从高于育龄男性向低于育龄男性转变。第二次显著变化是在育龄人群死亡风险已下降到一个相对较低的水平上发生的。从上个世纪70年代开始到上个世纪末,育龄女性死亡风险的下降速度显著高于育龄男性,随着时间的推移育龄人群死亡水平的性别差异呈现扩大趋势。     

Prenatal care and birthweight in Mexico

We estimate the marginal impact of prenatal care (PNC) on birth outcomes in Mexico using nationally representative data on about 14 million births from 2009 to 2014. Given the possible self-selection into PNC, we attempt to identify the causal impact of PNC on birth outcomes by estimating an instrumental variable model. We find positive impacts of increased prenatal visits on birthweight (BW), length and apgar score of the newborn. Moreover, the impacts of PNC on birth outcomes differ by mother’s education, development level of the municipality where the mother resides and BW distribution. We also find suggestive evidence that PNC visits affect birth outcomes through the reduction in pre-term births.     

人口转变、经济发展与卫生支出增长——以人口普查为基础的因素分解

采用因素分解方法考察中国卫生支出在过去近30年的增长特点,将卫生总费用增长及卫生总费用占GDP比重的变化,分解为人口数量增长、人口结构变动、健康模式变化和非人口学因素影响四个独立可比的部分。结果显示,尽管非人口学因素决定着卫生总费用增长,人口学因素却主导着卫生总费用占GDP比重的变化。人口学因素中,人口总量缓慢增长和人口结构快速转变推动着卫生支出规模不断上升,但健康模式变化显著削弱了这种趋势。