热销过后话保险

1997年10月23日，银行存贷款利率下调，各项存款利率平均下调1．1个百分点。调整后，最高利率为五年期整存整取，年息6．66％。此时，各保险公司寿险预定利率平均为8％。11月7日，中国人民银行紧急通知调整寿险预定利率，下调至年复利4％至6．5％。新利率12月1日正式实行。三者交会将中国的寿险业匆匆推向了一个短暂的辉煌。据称，短短一个月内，平安保险公司北京分公司的寿险保费收入增加了三四倍，泰康人寿保险公司保费收入也从前几个月的400多万元猛增到1200多万元。12月1日，新的寿险利率实行，寿险业又回落到以往的水平。中保人寿公司…     

包含股票的金融资产组合中家户投资型寿险需求研究

在连续时间动态模型框架下,本文探究收益率随机波动的投资型寿险需求在包含股票的金融投资组合中的变化规律。模型假设投资型寿险保费分为寿险纯保费和投资性保费两部分,其中寿险纯保费关注基本死亡保障,而投资性保费关注财富增值。在一个包含无风险资产储蓄和风险资产股票的金融资产组合中,探究投资型寿险需求随时间变化的规律。股票与投资性保费均假定遵循一维几何布朗运动,两者相关但存在竞争关系。使用比较动态方法以及数值模拟方法,研究发现:初始财富、投资型寿险收益率对投资型寿险总需求有正向影响,而市场利率、风险厌恶系数等因子产生反向影响,死亡率影响效应不确定;投资型寿险与股票的相关性对投资型寿险需求产生显著影响。     

强化应收保费管理 提高风险防范意识

保险业是特殊金融企业,但其自身又存在着诸多特有的经营风险。应收保费,则是其中之一。应收保费是适应保险企业保费分期入账的核算管理办法,它关系到保险权利义务的对等,是保险企业经营成果是否真实的反映,应收保费的多少也关系到保险企业自身的经济效益。从其实际经营情况来看,由于保险合同中的投保人保险意识不强,加之投保人自身经济效益等多方面因素,导致财产险公司近年来的应收保费逐年增加居高不下,形成不良资产,严重地影响了财产险公司经济效益的提高,给财产险公司形成巨大的压力。因此,如何防范和化解这一风险问题,是摆在财产险公司…     

产险公司有效管控应收保费的策略

产险公司有效管控应收保费是当前保险公司遇到的一个新课题。保险合同规定：保险出单与保险收费必须同时实现,不允许投保人保险欠费,如投保人无力支付保费,保险人不得签发保险单,不承担保险责任。但各家产险公司各级机构客观上或多或少地存在应收保费。他们根据保险经营实践中遇到的实际情况．本着实事求是的态度,允许产生保险欠费(应收保费),并就保险欠费情形作了明确的界定,期望既不影响保费业务拓展又能把应收风险控制在可接受的范围内。     

我国寿险业资产负债管理的风险及其防范

随着我国人寿保险市场快速发展,保费及可供投资利用的资金成倍增长,投资业务将成为人寿保险业的主营业务。如何保证人寿保险公司在长期的经营中保持足够的偿付能力,确保在将来有充足的资产来匹配负债,是保证我国人寿保险业长期健康稳定发展的一项重要课题。一、问题的提出1!我国寿险公司利差亏损严重。由于寿险业大都是长期险业务,而在对寿险产品定价时已经将货币的时间价值考虑在内。如果预定利率选择不当,这种风险随着保单年限的增加而呈指数增长,从而造成寿险公司的承保业务亏损,甚至到期没有偿付能力而倒闭破产。我国传统寿险产品大多为…     

卫生服务可及性提高是否能促进儿童就医性别公平?——来自中国农村的证据

本文使用中国健康与营养调查多年数据,考察农村卫生服务可及性对儿童患病就医性别差异的影响。文章首先建立理论模型分析不同投入水平下卫生服务可及性增加对儿童就医概率性别差异的影响,而后通过实证比较不同时期卫生服务可及性对农村儿童患病就医影响的性别差异。文章发现,20世纪90年代初农村卫生服务可及性的提高能缩小儿童患病就医的性别差距,而本世纪初农村卫生服务可及性的提高却在一定程度上扩大了儿童患病就医的性别差距。     

基于索赔分类的车险定价技术的经济分析

从经济效益的视角分析了多元风险车险的定价技术。应用广义线性模型,建立了"索赔频率、索赔类型、索赔额"结构的多元个体损失模型用于车险的纯保费定价。结合中国交强险的实际经营数据,解释了建模时使用的索赔分类技术。相比保险公司传统的定价方法,该技术不仅能实现对不同风险水平的投保人进行更公平的差异化定价,而且可以较好地解决交强险定价中存在的"高价低保"问题。指出保险公司对风险特征更接近的索赔进行分类分析,可更准确地预测投保人的风险水平,从而改进车险定价技术的合理性。     

实际利率对住房商业贷款的影响研究

随着我国房地产经济的发展,购房商业贷款比例逐渐增加,购房商业贷款的还款方式及还款利率也备受关注。目前银行购房贷款常用的还款方式为"等额本息还款"与"等额本金还款"两种。由于在房屋贷款合同中规定的还款周期与利率周期不同,导致名义利率与实际利率存在一定的差异,即实际利率小于名义利率,从而使得贷款者偿还银行的利息总额大于由实际利率产生的应偿总额,且采用等额本息还款方式的利息差值大于等额本金还款方式,并两者的差值随着贷款周期的延长而递增。     

社会性别视角下的健康公平——对中国城市人口群体的考察

本文使用中国健康与营养调查数据,在健康的社会分层模式下探讨城市人口健康的性别公平问题。研究集中在两个方面:一是健康的总体性别差异、不同社会阶层的健康性别差异和同一性别内部不同社会阶层的健康差异;二是分析社会经济的性别不平等和健康行为上的性别差异对健康性别差异的解释力度。研究指出,中国城市人口健康存在显著的性别不平等现象,男性健康水平要好于女性。健康性别不平等不仅存在于所有社会阶层之中,而且呈"倒U型"分布。人口健康的性别差异主要是由于不同性别在社会经济地位上的差异造成的,女性处于明显的弱势地位。从这个角度讲,健康的性别不公平实质上是男女社会地位不平等的体现。     

道德风险与保险商品价格形成的博弈分析

在一般的分析中,我们总是假定投保人的风险状况是外生的,投保人的行为不改变风险状况(损失概率).但是,国际保险市场中各种类型的保险欺诈使得保险商品的价格每年要增加10%左右的事实表明,投保人(或被保险人)的行为导致风险(损失概率)内生化.因而,投保人(或被保险人)的道德风险对于保险商品的价格形成影响很大.     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

John Stuart Mill's Theory Of Justice

John Stuart Mill has traditionally been portrayed as self-contradictory and failing to construct a unified social theory. Recent scholarship, however, has challenged this view, finding Mill's work to be creatively synthetic in bridging the antinomies inherent in liberal democratic thought. This revisionist interpretation of Mill is advanced by an understanding of his theory of justice and its role in shaping his policy positions on issues such as welfare, education, voting rights, property rights, taxation, government intervention, and the future of capitalism.     

A Rich Vein for “Reality Mining”北大核心CSSCISSCI

Arik Hesseldahl In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, U.S. officials quickly turned their attention to other potential targets, including California's Golden Gate Bridge. What would happen if terrorists took down the bridge between San Francisco and Marin County? How much of the region would be affected and for how long?     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

中国养活自己能力的长期预测:技术和政策分析

中国拥有世界五分之一强的人口 ,收入又在迅速增长。因此 ,国际上很自然地会考虑或推测她在今后的几十年是否有能力养活自己。中国的人口预计将从 2 0 0 0年的 1 2 8亿增长到 2 0 2 0年的 1 4 6亿 ,和 2 0 3 0年的 1 4 9亿。与此同时 ,人均收入的增长将导致对家畜和鱼类产品更大的需求 ,因而对饲料的需求也将有很大的增长     

Perspective on the Economic Evolution of the European Union States Under the Impact of the Pandemic and Financial-Economic Crisis

The European Union,which is at the beginning of its term of office for all Member States in the European Parliament,the European Commission,its governing body a...     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Toward a Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Organizational Life

Synopsis Classification is an important activity that facilitates theory development in many academic disciplines. Scholars in fields such as organizational science, management science and economics and have long recognized that classification offers an approach for ordering and understanding the diversity of organizational taxa (groups of one or more similar organizational entities). However, even the most prominent organizational classifications have limited utility, as they tend to be shaped by a specific research bias, inadequate units of analysis and a standard neoclassical economic view that does not naturally accommodate the disequilibrium dynamics of modern competition. The result is a relatively large number of individual and unconnected organizational classifications, which tend to ignore the processes of change responsible for organizational diversity. Collectively they fail to provide any sort of universal system for ordering, compiling and presenting knowledge on organizational diversity. This paper has two purposes. First, it reviews the general status of the major theoretical approaches to biological and organizational classification and compares the methods and resulting classifications derived from each approach. Definitions of key terms and a discussion on the three principal schools of biological classification (evolutionary systematics, phenetics and cladistics) are included in this review. Second, this paper aims to encourage critical thinking and debate about the use of the cladistic classification approach for inferring and representing the historical relationships underpinning organizational diversity. This involves examining the feasibility of applying the logic of common ancestry to populations of organizations. Consequently, this paper is exploratory and preparatory in style, with illustrations and assertions concerning the study and classification of organizational diversity.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.