我国基本养老保险个人账户"空账"问题研究

个人账户"空账"是完善我国基本养老保险制度的难点。深入地分析了我国基本养老保险个人账户"空账"形成的原因、后果,并在此基础上探讨了如何做实个人账户的对策     

个人账户做实的思考

本文指出我国养老保险个人账户"空账"运行的现象,借鉴国债偿付能力的分析体系,论证了政府做实个人账户的能力.分析了做实个人账户存在的机会成本,并通过实证分析验证了个人账户空账规模和国民收入及财政收入之间的协整关系.     

解决城镇企业职工基本养老保险个人账户空账问题的新思路

本文了分析了养老金制度的本质，以此为基础，阐述了做实企业职工基本养老保险个人账户的两大理由、两大瓶颈。研究表明，与现收现付制相比，即使做实基本养老保险个人账户也难以有效应对人口老龄化的冲击，无法增加储蓄和促进经济发展，而继续做实基本养老保险个人账户会面临难以突破的资金瓶颈和资本市场瓶颈，必然会引起制度成本的上升。因此，本文建议采取“变堵为疏”的思路，进行参数改革，解决基本养老保险个人账户空账问题，优化企业职工基本养老保险个人账户制度。     

关于做实养老保险个人账户问题的思考

养老保险个人账户作为应对老龄化社会到来的一种重要手段,其运作成功与否对社会的稳定十分重要。然而在实施过程中,养老保险个人账户空账运行问题日益严峻,已经严重影响了社会保险制度的健康发展。本文通过分析个人账户空账运行的原因,提出做实个人账户的建议,旨在寻找做实个人账户的合理方法,完善我国的基本养老保险制度,积极应对老龄化社会的到来。     

个人账户做实的思考

本文指出我国养老保险个人账户“空账”运行的现象,借鉴国债偿付能力的分析体系,论证了政府做实个人账户的能力。分析了做实个人账户存在的机会成本,并通过实证分析验证了个人账户空账规模和国民收入及财政收入之间的协整关系。     

解决养老保险个人账户"空账"问题的对策探析

温家宝在今年的《政府工作报告》第二部分第七条指出,"要完善于城镇职工基本养老保险制度,搞好做实个人账户试点工作,扩大试点范围".如何做实个人账户?关键是要解决养老金的个人账户"空账"问题.文章以"十一五规划"新一轮养老保险制度改革为背景,针对"空账"问题,分析了产生原因,基中包括一些新因素,并提出了解决问题的思路和方法,以期做实个人账户,并使养老保险制度能够得到稳健的发展.     

养老保险个人账户基金收支失衡的成因及对策

一、引言 我国自1995年开始在全国城镇国有企业中实行社会统筹和个人账户相结合的养老保险新体制。新制度实施以来，由于制度转型、养老保险缴费征收困难等因素的影响，养老保险基金中社会统筹收入不能满足当期养老保险金统筹支付需求。各地社会保险经办机构不得不挪用个人账户资金来弥补收支差额，社会统筹账户和个人账户混账管理，个人账户空账运行。为达到社会统筹账户和个人账户分开管理的设计初衷，我国政府于2001年7月在辽宁省开始进行做实基本养老保险个人账户试点工作。     

解决养老保险个人账户“空账”问题的对策探析

温家宝在今年的《政府工作报告》第二部分第七条指出，“要完善于城镇职工基本养老保险制度，搞好做实个人账户试点工作，扩大试点范围”。如何做实个人账户？关键是要解决养老金的个人账户“空账”问题。文章以“十一五规划”新一轮养老保险制度改革为背景，针对“空账”问题，分析了产生原因，基中包括一些新因素，并提出了解决问题的思路和方法，以期做实个人账户，并使养老保险制度能够得到稳健的发展。     

关于我国基本养老保险个人账户“空账”问题的思考

在我国基本养老保险的运行过程中,由于各种原因,个人账户一直处于"空账"状态,近些年,更有扩大的趋势,从2004年到2010年,短短六年的时间,"空账"规模几乎扩大了一倍,文章从根源上分析我国基本养老保险个人账户"空账"产生的原因,以期提出解决"空账"问题的有效措施。     

养老保险个人账户基金风险防范策略研究——基于辽宁问题

分账制下,个人账户基金和社会统筹基金分开管理,个人账户"实账"运行。随着基金的不断积累以及"空账"的做实,个人账户基金面临着强烈的外部环境和管理压力。文章在详细分析辽宁养老保险个人账户基金风险产生原因的基础上,研究相应的风险防范策略,以最大限度的规避风险,充分发挥个人账户制度在退休后生活中的保障作用。     

多层次养老保险协同发展的联动机制及配套政策研究

全面建成多层次社会保障体系是党的十九大报告确定的重要指导原则，推进养老保险多层次协同发展是深化社会保障改革的重中之重。本文通过对基本养老保险实际费率和替代率的测算发现补充养老保险发展存在较大空间；通过分解个人账户基金现值及权益，尝试在多层次体系下建立不同养老保险制度间的转换衔接通道。本文研究发现，允许个人账户基金纵向转续是弱化多层次挤出效应的重要方式，能够在保证第一层次覆盖率的前提下促进二三层次扩面。     

中国养老金隐性债务规模估算

随着我国养老保险体制的转轨,现收现付制下形成的隐性债务开始显性化,形成了庞大的统筹资金缺口.而解决养老金隐性债务的基本前提是要准确测算债务规模.本文在分析隐性债务来源的基础上,将我国参保职工分为五类,采取个体成本法精算出2008年初的养老金隐性债务规模.     

Short-termism of long-term investors? The investment behaviour of Dutch insurance companies and pension funds

Countercyclical investment strategies of large institutional investors such as insurance companies and pension funds can support financial stability, while procyclical investment behaviour is considered as destabilizing at a macro level. Yet, there is limited understanding of how insurance companies and pension funds invest during market shocks, such as the global financial crisis. Investigating the equity and fixed income portfolios of Dutch non-life insurers, life insurers and pension funds, we find evidence for procyclical behaviour by insurance companies (both life and non-life). For pension funds, we find evidence for countercyclical behaviour during market upturns.     

X-efficiency and economies of scale in pension fund administration and investment

Pension funds’ operating costs impair pension benefits, so it is crucial for pension funds to operate at the lowest cost possible. In practice, we observe substantial differences in costs per member for Dutch pension funds, both across and within pension fund size classes. This article presents new estimates of scale economies of pension funds and is the first that also measures pension fund X-inefficiency. We use a unique supervisory data set which distinguishes between administrative and investment costs and apply various approaches and models. Our estimates show large economies of scale for pension fund administrations, but modest diseconomies of scale for investment activities. We also found that many pension funds have substantial X-inefficiencies for both administrative and investment activities. The two kinds of inefficiency differ across types of pension funds. Therefore, most pension funds should be able to improve their cost performance, and hence increase pension benefits.     

养老保险个人账户调整对我国财政体系代际平衡状况的影响

养老保险体系对财政政策的代际平衡状况有重要影响,我国养老保险个人账户规模缩小至8%可以使代际不平衡状况下降10个百分点,而降低养老基金保值率对改善代际不平衡状况的作用有限。因此我们在缩小个人账户规模后,应该考虑尽快将个人账户“做实”,通过提高养老基金保值率来激励单位和个人参加养老保险。     

Pension Reforms: An Illustrated Basic Analysis

The paper examines pension reforms under population ageing.The concepts of "implicit pension debt", "implicit tax" and"internal rate of return" are first introduced with the helpof a three-period model. Using stylised facts, ageing is tracedto low fertility and increasing longevity. Formulating a benchmarkfor intergenerational fairness leads to a framework for designingpension reforms such that leaving an unfair burden to futuregenerations is avoided. Secondly, a yearly simulation modelis used to arrive at the following main results for reform blueprints: (1) In a Defined Benefit (DB) system, partial pre-funding isneeded to achieve intergenerational fairness unless benefitsare sufficiently reduced; partial privatisation is an optionfor the management of the accumulating funds. (2) Transition from a DB to a Notional Defined Contribution(NDC) system is another reform option; it reduces the replacementrates to levels which match prescribed contribution rates; anNDC public pillar can be accompanied by a second pillar, managedby the private sector. (3) An effective increase in the retirement age is necessaryto moderate the increase in pension expenditure and to preserveadequate pension levels. (4) Pension reforms have important effects on public financetarget setting. (JEL H1, H5, H6)     

Investment risk taking by institutional investors

According to theory, institutional investors face both risk-management and risk-shifting incentives. This article assesses the relevance of these conflicting incentives for Dutch pension funds and insurance firms over the period 1995 to 2009. Using a unique and extended data set, we observe a significant positive relationship between capital and asset risk for insurers, indicating that risk-management incentives dominate in the Dutch insurance industry. Risk-shifting incentives, however, also seem relevant, as stock insurers take more investment risk than their mutual peers. For Dutch pension funds, we conclude that overall neither risk-shifting nor risk-management incentives seem to dominate. Interestingly, we find that professional group pension funds take significantly less investment risk than other types of pension funds. This finding is in line with expectations, as in professional group pension funds potential incentive conflicts between pension fund participants and the employer are effectively internalized.     

How Well Does the Australian Aged Pension Provide Social Insurance?

Social security plays an essential role in an economy, but if designed incorrectly, it can distort individuals' labour supply and savings behaviour. We explore how well the Australian means‐tested pension system provides social insurance by changing the settings of the system and calculating the impact on welfare. In order to exclude trivial welfare gains, we keep the cost of the programmes constant. We find that the means‐tested pension system is welfare reducing, but does provide a better outcome than a PAYG system of equivalent cost. We also find that if the benefit amount is held constant, and hence the cost of the pension programme is allowed to vary, a taper rate of 1.0 is optimal. However, once we hold the cost of the programme constant, a universal benefit scheme provides the best welfare outcome.     

机关事业单位养老保险制度的人性化选择

伴随着城镇企业养老保险制度的逐渐完善,建立机关事业单位养老保险制度无疑是目前社会养老保险工作中最棘手的难题。由于过去城镇内部养老保险“二元化”特征导致现阶段对机关事业单位试点和改革存在诸多的分歧,试图在过去改革试点和城镇养老保险改革的经验基础上,以最终建立全国统一的社会保障制度为目标,力图最小化转制成本,对机关事业单位养老保险制度建立的原则和框架问题做一些探索。     

国际对冲基金的中国资产配置研究

"热钱"进入的状况和影响目前正在受到国内各界的广泛关注。文章借用以指数收益推算要素敞口的方法,研究了"热钱"的典型代表———国际对冲基金在中国金融市场上的投资活动和资产分布。从全球对冲基金行业来看,尚不存在大规模投资于中国大陆市场的迹象。全球对冲基金业绩仅与中国股票市场存在较微弱的正相关关系。就大中华区而言,大陆股票、香港股票和台湾股票市场是这一地区对冲基金的主要活动场所。没有发现对冲基金在行业意义上进入中国债券、期货和房地产市场的证据。文章还分析了国际对冲基金进入中国的主要渠道和目前国内对对冲基金的监管现状,并提出有关政策建议。