浅析我国的婚姻挤压问题

人口性别结构是否均衡将直接影响人口的婚姻家庭结构,并直接关系到婚姻、家庭及社会安全等重大社会问题.婚姻挤压现象严重影响着我国的社会发展并直接关系到我国的社会问题.研究结果表明:目前,中国的婚姻市场出现严重的男性婚姻挤压;农村的婚姻挤压程度高于城镇,低学历人口同样高于高学历人口;社会上出现了较庞大的光棍群体.     

中国未来婚姻挤压研究

中国的男孩偏好和对女孩的歧视导致了男性婚姻挤压。在潜在初婚比模型的基础上,使用标准化初婚频率和去进度效应方法设计了两种新的模型,并与现有模型结合,研究中国婚姻挤压状况。在潜在初婚比基础上开发的模型所得到的结论基本相同。2016年到2046年的30年时间里,婚姻市场上男性和女性的潜在初婚比都在1.15以上;2060年之后保持在1.05-1.08水平。从2000年开始,中国会面临严重的男性婚姻挤压,2016年至2046年平均每年过剩男性在120-150万之间,2060年之后每年在50万之下。如果出生性别比得不到有效控制,则未来男性婚姻挤压情况将严重得多。     

乌鲁木齐男性婚姻挤压现

随着社会的发展和计划生育政策的实施，男性婚姻挤压这一现象逐步凸显。乌鲁木齐作为中国的重要城市之一，这个问题也被逐步重视。本文通过陈友华单身婚配性别比计算方法和出生性别比计算婚姻挤压的方法等两种研究方法证实了鸟鲁木齐男性婚姻挤压的存在及严重程度，分析了婚姻挤压的影响，并且提出了切实可行的解决方法。     

适婚人群性别失配背景下的婚姻挤压与住房市场——基于空间异质与空间溢出两个维度

适婚人群性别失配背景下能否厘清婚姻挤压对住房市场的影响效应是政府调控有效、青年家庭幸福的关键问题。采用改进的方法测度2005年至2019年中国285个地级市的婚姻挤压水平,运用面板分位数回归方法刻画不同分位点下婚姻挤压对住房市场的非线性影响。在此基础上,运用探索性空间数据分析和空间杜宾模型方法识别婚姻挤压和住房市场在空间上的联动响应。结果表明：(1)除最低分位点外,各个分位点下婚姻挤压对住房价格均产生显著的正向影响,且在高房价城市对房价的刺激作用比低房价城市更大。(2)城市婚姻挤压和住房价格均存在正向的空间依赖性,莫兰指数分别呈“波浪”型和“倒U”型变化趋势。绝大多数城市的房价和婚姻挤压表现出了“高-高”或“低-低”集聚模式,局部空间格局相对稳定。(3)婚姻挤压加剧刺激了本地住房价格上涨,同时也会因适婚人口、资金等要素流动对邻近城市房价产生推动作用。     

乌鲁木齐男性婚姻挤压现

随着社会的发展和计划生育政策的实施[1],男性婚姻挤压这一现象逐步凸显.乌鲁木齐作为中国的重要城市之一,这个问题也被逐步重视.本文通过陈友华单身婚配性别比计算方法和出生性别比计算婚姻挤压的方法等两种研究方法证实了乌鲁木齐男性婚姻挤压的存在及严重程度,分析了婚姻挤压的影响,并且提出了切实可行的解决方法.     

中国出生性别比偏高的长期人口后果

20世纪80年代以来,中国的人口出生性别比出现了迅速、持续增高的现象和趋势,这对未来中国人口的发展会产生不可忽视的影响。根据不同的性别比方案预测我国人口未来百年的发展状况,考察出生性别比偏高对人口总量、出生人口规模、总人口抚养比以及婚姻市场的性别比等产生的影响。出生性别比偏高会降低出生人口规模、加速人口老龄化以及造成婚姻挤压等人口后果。     

中国人口性别结构失衡、婚姻挤压与房价

在中国男女性别结构失衡的条件下,男性在婚姻市场上竞争激烈,因此男性会以购房来提高其在婚姻市场上的竞争力.那么,男性为婚姻而购房是否会推高房价呢?从中国男女性别结构失衡的角度并采用2005-2018年30个省份的面板数据的实证研究表明,性别结构失衡会推高房价,且性别结构失衡是通过加剧婚姻挤压而推高房价的.进一步的调节效应分析表明,受教育水平对性别结构失衡与房价正相关关系具有强化作用.     

浅析中国唐代婚姻制度

唐律在中国封建法制历史的长河中堪居最高地位,是中国古代法律的楷模。作为其内容之一的婚姻家庭法亦是古代法律的典范,它的立法指导思想、内容不仅有时代特色,而且深刻影响了后世,对中国现行的婚姻法律制度也有指导、借鉴作用。结合唐代社会发展的时代背景以唐代婚姻制度中的婚姻成立和解除的条件为例,总结了其特点及对现行婚姻法律制的借鉴意义,以完善中国现行婚姻法律制度。     

“中国人口性别比”:我们知道什么,还应该知道什么

结合文献梳理,提出了人口性别比研究中存在的若干问题,并运用相关数据进行检验。我国出生人口性别比数据中既存在女性的漏报瞒报,也存在男性的漏报瞒报;1949年以来中国总体人口性别比与出生人口性别比的关系不对应;婚姻挤压由于存在连续性,靠扩大婚龄差无法缓解;男孩偏好是个文化观念问题,更是个社会结构与制度问题;当前独生子女政策正面临考验;人口调查与数据分析中还存在值得认真面对的技术问题。     

浅谈性别比失衡

中国是一个人口大国,上世纪70年代,国家实行计划生育政策,中国出生率大大下降,高人口红利、 改革开放等因素的影响使中国经济迅速发展,但是在短暂的人口红利过后,中国迅速进入了老龄化社会.老年口增多的同时男女性别比也出现问题,男多女少的情况下.容易造成婚姻挤压、 不稳定因素增加等社会问题的出现,那么性别比失衡出现的原因及目前放开二胎政策会不会对这些有影响?我在下文内将大致论述这两个问题.     

Why the marriage squeeze cannot cause dowry inflation

An influential explanation for rising dowry payments is the “marriage squeeze”. The present paper shows this explanation to be internally inconsistent. The marriage squeeze argument for inflation relies on the fact that population growth leads to an excess supply of brides in the marriage market. This excess supply is resolved by some women postponing marriage, so that the average age of brides increases. In previous studies the argument is stated informally. Here, a matching model of marriage is developed to formally analyze the link between dowry payments and population growth. It is shown that a marriage squeeze cannot yield dowry inflation. In fact, when women who do not find matches at the ‘desirable’ marrying age re-enter the marriage market as older brides, a marriage squeeze is shown to imply dowry deflation. Population change is therefore not a promising explanation for the observed increases in dowry payments.     

中国反垄断的政治经济学解读

大企业通常会利用市场支配力获得转移收益，这会扭曲合理的财富分配进而抑制整个社会的价值创造，因而应该受到反垄断行为审查。同时，经济全球化使得大企业依仗其市场支配力获得的转移收益不再局限于国内，利益受损者可能是他国民众，因而世界各国的反垄断行为呈现出明显的倾向性。事实上，尽管那些知名外资大企业凭借其规模经济为中国社会提供了物美价廉的产品和服务，提高了国人的消费剩余和经济福利，但也因独占市场而挤压了国内相关企业和产业的发展空间，造成长远的国家福利损失，因而当前中国政府的反垄断调查集中在具有市场支配力的大型外资企业上。     

Gender imbalance in China’s marriage migration: Quantitative evidence and policy implications

While gender-imbalanced marriage migration across borders and regions and its socioeconomic impacts have been widely reported in developing nations, this paper reports empirical findings based on data from China since 1980. China’s international marriages were characterized with more than 95% of brides from mainland China in the 1980s but the proportion has dropped gradually to around 60% in recent years. Analysis of China’s census data and a panel dataset from Shanghai suggests that proportionally more women migrated from relatively less-developed to more-developed regions through marriage and the variation in income across regions is the key factor behind the migration pattern. China’s gender-imbalanced marriage migration has caused problems such as male marriage squeeze in poor rural areas and “leftover women” in large cities like Shanghai. Policies for poverty reduction and more balanced economic development across regions are recommended for reducing such gender imbalance and the associated socioeconomic problems.     

The timing of first marriage and subsequent life outcomes: Evidence from a natural experiment

We study the consequences of later marriage on subsequent life outcomes. China’s family planning policies in the early 1970s – before the One-Child Policy – regulated not only childbirth but also marriage. The recommended minimum marriage age of 25 years for men and 23 years for women was effectively relaxed when the government formally introduced the One-Child Policy and put greater emphasis on directly controlling fertility rather than marriage. Subsequently, we find that the marriage age, which had been increasing steadily since 1970, suddenly started to decline in the early 1980s. This policy shift provides us with an opportunity to apply a regression probability jump and kink design for the purpose of identification. Using data from the 2000 census, we establish that later-married men have fewer children and that later-married women are more likely to participate in the labor market. We find no consistent evidence that later marriage improves education, probably because most Chinese people marry after completing their education.     

MARRIAGE,MARKETS, AND MONEY: A COASIAN THEORY OF HOUSEHOLD FORMATION

This article integrates search‐based models of marriage and money. We think about households as organizations, the way Coase thinks about firms, as alternatives to markets that become more attractive when transactions costs increase. In the model, individuals consume market‐ and home‐produced goods, and home production is facilitated by marriage. Market frictions, including taxes, search, and bargaining problems, increase the marriage propensity. The inflation tax encourages marriage because being single is cash intensive. Microdata confirm singles use cash more than married people. We use macrodata over many countries to investigate how marriage responds to inflation, taxation, and other variables.     

More on Marriage,Fertility, and the Distribution of Income*

According to Pareto (1896) , the distribution of income depends on “the nature of the people comprising a society, on the organization of the latter, and, also, in part, on chance.” In the model developed here the “nature of the people” is captured by attitudes toward marriage, divorce, fertility, and children. Singles search for mates in a marriage market. Married agents bargain about work, and the quantity and quality of children. They can divorce. Social policies, such as child support requirements, reflect the “organization of the (society).” Finally, “chance” is modeled by randomness in income, marriage opportunities, and marital bliss.     

CROSS‐BORDER MARRIAGE COSTS AND MARRIAGE BEHAVIOR: THEORY AND EVIDENCE

This article analyzes cross‐border marriages between mainland China and Hong Kong (HK). We examine the effects of a reduction in cross‐border marriage costs following an increase in marriage‐migration quotas and the handover of HK to China. We find that cross‐border marriages mainly involve men from the low tail of the HK attribute distribution. We also find that HK women's position in the marriage market and within households deteriorated following the reduction in cross‐border marriage costs and that their disadvantaged position exerts an incentive effect on their labor market behavior. These outcomes are consistent with our matching model.     

为结婚而储蓄?——来自中国家庭追踪调查①(CFPS)的经验证据

已有研究主要基于性别比失衡的竞争性储蓄动机解释了中国家庭的高储蓄之谜.文章把子女结婚这一自然事件作为处理变量,通过婚前和婚后的家庭储蓄变化识别出"婚姻效应",为竞争性储蓄动机理论和中国家庭的高储蓄之谜提供了微观证据.研究结果发现,在控制个人以及家庭特征后,相对于已婚家庭,未婚家庭储蓄显著更高.在排除地区性差异、教育储蓄动机、预防性储蓄动机和样本匹配等问题之后,未婚比已婚家庭具有更高储蓄水平的结论依然稳健.文章进一步分析识别出了城市和农村异质"婚姻效应"和婚后消费结构的变化,发现"婚姻效应"对不同收入水平的家庭都产生了影响,但"婚姻效应"对低收入家庭的消费抑制更为明显.文章的研究结果丰富了婚姻市场的竞争性储蓄动机理论.     

资源型城市转型期人口发展问题研究——以甘肃省嘉峪关市为例

资源型城市转型是世界普遍性问题,当资源型城市发展成综合性工业城市后,人口结构最终呈现老年型结构,三产从业人员知识和就业结构单一,城市下岗失业人员和隐性失业人口增加。同时,第二产从业人员比重扩大、性别比失调,最终产生"婚姻拥挤"现象。资源型城市转型期必须考虑协调城市资源与人口、环境、经济社会等各因素。