＂Convergence＂ or ＂Divergence＇？ --Rethinking Regional Integration of the Past Two Decades

The European Union （EU）, North American Free Trade Agreement （NAFTA） and Association of Southeast Asian Nations （ASEAN） are the three biggest regional economic cooperation organizations in the world. What roles have these three organizations played in both domestic development and the evolving global trend of regional integration？ This paper investigates the inequality among these three organizations for regional economic cooperation based on cross-national parallel data from thirty-nine countries over the period 1989-2008. By using the Theil index decomposition, this paper finds that the interregional disparity is the main source of inequality. This paper also finds that intraregional disparity rose significantly from the mid-1990s. ASEAN contributes an equalizing force to the change, while NAFTA contributes a disequalizing force. From the empirical tests based on the Barro non-linear growth regression model, our results show that the whole sample and some subregional samples （ASEAN and EU） support the convergence hypothesis. ASEAN＇s convergence speed is the fastest, which testifies to the fact that the convergence speed of the transition path is faster than the long-term path.     

A Game Analysis on Technology Alliance of Tech-typed Small and Medium-sized Enterprises

As an innovation mode of organization, technology alliance has being increasingly paid more attention to by more and more small and medium-sized enterprises （SME）. In this paper, on the basis of analyzing the theory and practice meaning of the technology alliance, cooperative game method is used to analyze the forming process of the cooperative mechanism, and it points out that cooperation will make both sides get the largest benefits.     

A national or local phenomenon? A comparison of the US and the Chinese housing markets

This article investigates the common movements of house prices across cities as well as the macroeconomic underpinnings of the comovements in the US and China. Our empirical results indicate more differences than similarities between the US and the Chinese housing markets. The results from a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model indicate that the fluctuations of house prices across cities in the US are more a national phenomenon, while the dynamics of house prices across cities in China are mainly driven by the city-specific component. We further use VAR models to compare the roles of the underlying determinants in these two housing markets. The results show that the roles of monetary policy shocks and aggregate fluctuations in driving the common movements of house prices across cities differ substantially between the US and China at both short and long horizons.     

Do equity index industry groups improve forecasts of inflation and production? A US analysis

This study develops a new financial market indicator, which may be a useful addition to analysing real activity in the US. By taking the ratio of the price return of equity industry groups of the S&P 500 over a benchmark industry group, in this case taken to be the Utilities industry group, an indicator is created which represents the price return performance specific to each individual industry. We then perform recursive pseudo out-of-sample bivariate forecasts of future changes in the Industrial Production Index (IPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 3-month, 6-month and 12-month horizons using each of the indicators and compare results against an AR forecast. The results of the bivariate forecasts using a number of the indicators produce better forecasts of changes in the IPI and are also significant for causality, both for the full sample period and when tested recursively. Bivariate forecasts of changes to the CPI, however, do not improve upon the AR forecasts.     

Strategic Technology Alliances: A Way to Innovative Enterprises in Russia?

This article examines whether, how, and to what extent international technology partnerships of Russian enterprises and research institutes contribute to their technological capability building. It presents results obtained by analysis of both a unique survey of Russian enterprises and research institutes co-operating with Western partners in seven selected high-technology fields and four Russian regions with a high concentration of R&D, and additional evidence from 16 in-depth interviews with managers of such Russian high-technology entities (HTE).     

Do Stringent Environmental Policies Deter FDI? M&A versus Greenfield

Environmental and Resource Economics - Strict environmental regulation may deter foreign direct investment (FDI). The paper develops the hypothesis that regulation predominantly discourages FDI...     

Allies or commitment devices? A model of appointments to the Federal Reserve

We present a model of executive‐legislative bargaining over appointments to independent central banks in the face of an uncertain economy with strategic economic actors. The model highlights the contrast between two idealized views of Federal Reserve appointments. In one view, politicians prefer to appoint conservatively biased central bankers to overcome credible commitment problems that arise in monetary policy. In the other, politicians prefer to appoint allies, and appointments are well described by the spatial model used to describe appointments to other agencies. Both ideals are limiting cases of our model, which depend on the level of economic uncertainty. When economic uncertainty is extremely low, politicians prefer very conservative appointments. When economic uncertainty increases, politicians’ prefer central bank appointees closer to their own ideal points. In the typical case, the results are somewhere in between: equilibrium appointments move in the direction of politician's preferences but with a moderate conservative bias.     

Which Gender Wage Gap Estimates to Trust? A Comparative Analysis

The aim of this paper is to compare estimates of the adjusted wage gap from different methods and sets of conditioning variables. We apply available parametric and non‐parametric methods to LFS data from Poland for 2012. While the raw gap amounts to nearly 10 percent of the female wage; the adjusted wage gap estimates range between 15 percent and as much as 23 percent depending on the method and the choice of conditional variables. The differences across conditioning variables within the same method do not exceed 3pp, but including more variables almost universally results in larger estimates of the adjusted wage gaps. Methods that account for common support and selection into employment yielded higher estimates of the adjusted wage gap. While the actual point estimates of adjusted wage gap are slightly different, all of them are roughly twice as high as the raw gap, which corroborates the policy relevance of this methodological study.     

Error or absurdity? A non-cognitive approach to commodity fetishism

Abstract

Karl Marx presented his theory of commodity fetishism as an explanation of the mysterious appearance of social relations in a system of commodity production as natural phenomena. The standard interpretation of this as a failure to perceive capitalist social relations correctly depends on a particular modern sense of ‘natural’. If classical political economy and Marx used ‘natural’ in the Aristotelian sense, commodity fetishism appears quite differently: not as a cognitive error but rather as a manner of living under commodity production, one that is not wrong but absurd, the word fetishism tying commodity production to pre-Enlightenment, preliterate peoples.     

Labor Law in China: How Does It Contribute to the Economic Security of the Workforce? A Commonsian Reading

By adopting the “reasonable value” notion applied to the labor relationship as proposed by John R. Commons, I study the way in which labor legislation in China can be understood as the search for a status of employment security for rural migrant workers. However, the Chinese labor market is experiencing growth in a particular form of informal labor: delegated and temporary labor. I analyze this contradiction not as a failure of the legislation itself, but as the product of a particular institutional context which provides a way to skirt the law, and thereby diminish its effectiveness. Finally, in a non-democratic state, labor law — which has been instrumentalized and mobilized within a form of state corporatism — reveals that very significant challenges exist for building a truly secure status for employees.     

Do consumers’ home buying attitudes explain the behaviour of US home sales?

This article asks whether consumers’ home buying attitudes explain the behaviour of home sales by focusing on two tranquil and two uncertain periods within 1978–2015. We utilize monthly data to formulate and estimate four augmented autoregressive models with the results indicating that improvements (deteriorations) in consumers’ home buying attitudes lead to higher (lower) home sales. This conclusion remains unchanged when controlling for economic and financial indicators often cited as determinants of home sales. Overall, our article has key implications for future studies aiming to forecast home sales using attitudinal measures.     

How Do Business Interest Groups Respond to Political Challenges? A Study of the Politics of German Employers

Social scientists dealing with business and politics have tended to focus mostly on the power of business and less on the political challenges and constraints that business interest groups face. This paper analyses how business interest groups respond to political initiatives that challenge their interests, using four episodes of political conflict in Germany. The paper elaborates a model of response strategies and their likely impact on political outcomes. The model suggests that business interest groups can respond to political challenges in two ways: by seeking confrontation or by pursuing adaptation. The paper illustrates these two response strategies with four episodes of political conflict in the political-economic history of Germany: (i) the adoption of social insurance under Bismarck, (ii) the adoption of unemployment insurance in the 1920s, (iii) the adoption of board-level codetermination in the early 1950s, (iv) and the Agenda 2010 labour market reforms of the early 2000s. These four case studies show that adaptation facilitates social compromise, while confrontation results in a bifurcated outcome, producing either dominance or defeat of business interests, depending on what side government takes. Furthermore, the analysis finds that confrontation tends to be associated with a unity of interests within the business community, while adaptation tends to be associated with a fragmentation of interests. The discussion emphasises that the role of business in politics should not be seen solely in terms of business ‘influencing’ politics, but also as potentially adaptive.     

Speculative bubbles or market fundamentals? An investigation of US regional housing markets

This paper investigates the existence of speculative bubbles in the US national and 21 regional housing markets over three decades (1978–2015). A new method for real-time monitoring exuberance in housing markets is proposed. By taking changes in the macroeconomic conditions (such as interest rate, per-capita income, employment, and population growth) into consideration, the new method provides better control for housing market fundamentals and thereby it is expected to significantly reduce the chance of false positive identification. Compared with the method of Phillips et al. (2015a, 2015b), the new approach finds a dramatic reduction in the number of speculative housing markets and shorter bubble episodes in the US. It locates only one bubble episode in the early-to-mid 2000s over the whole sample period in the national housing market. At the regional level, it identifies two periods of speculation: late 1980s and early-to-mid 2000s. The early-to-mid 2000s bubble episode lasts longer and involves 16 metropolitan statistical areas.     

FDI and environmental regulation: pollution haven or a race to the top?

Increasing foreign direct investment (FDI) flows accompanied with globalization have raised the concern of a “race to the bottom” phenomenon in environmental protection. This is because footloose investors of “dirty” industries tend to relocate to “pollution havens” of the developing world. However when pollutant is transboundary (as in the case of greenhouse gases), the source country’s incentive to relocate and the recipient country’s willingness to host such industries are not straightforward. This article studies the relationship between FDI and environmental regulation using a North–South market share game model in a two-country setting, when pollution is transboundary. Contrary to the pollution haven hypothesis, our model shows that if market sizes of the two countries are small, FDI will raise the emission standard of the host country, resulting in a “race-to-the-top” phenomenon; but if market sizes are large enough, FDI will not change the emission standard of the South (from its laxest form), a finding that is consistent with the “regulatory chill” argument. Equilibrium FDI is contingent on the fixed cost of FDI, as the traditional proximity–concentration tradeoff theory predicts.     

Do Immigrants Take or Create Residents’ Jobs? Evidence from Free Movement of Workers in Switzerland*

In 2002, Switzerland began to adopt free movement of workers with the European Union. We study the effects of the resulting immigration wave on resident workers. We focus on the level of national skill groups and propose an instrumental variable approach to address the endogeneity of immigration in this setting. Mostly relying on administrative data for the 2002–2011 period, we find that the immigration of foreign workers reduced unemployment of residents, and had limited adverse effects on their wages and employment. One reason for this is that younger residents changed to more demanding jobs as a response to the arrival of immigrants.     

What does IT Take for Congress to Enact Good Policies? an Analysis of Roll Call Voting in the US Congress

We study the conditions under which members of Congress incorporate policy‐specific considerations in their decisions. To do this, we estimate a model that accounts for the influence of private information about legislation quality on voting patterns in the House and Senate. We find that minority party members are more likely to evaluate proposals on their merits than majority members, but institutional and electoral considerations significantly attenuate these partisan differences. In particular, seniority, electoral safety, and constituents' political knowledge have a balancing effect on partisan predispositions to rely on policy‐relevant information, making minority (majority) members less (more) likely to vote informatively.     

Modes of Foreign Direct Investment and Intellectual Property Rights Protection: Wholly‐owned or Joint Venture? Firm‐level Evidence from Taiwanese Multinational Manufacturing Enterprises

This paper finds evidence from Taiwanese manufacturing multinational enterprises (MNEs) for the period 2003–2005 to show that Taiwanese manufacturing MNEs are more likely to choose joint ventures (JVs) if intellectual property rights (IPRs) protection in the foreign direct investment (FDI) host country is strong. The estimation results suggest that if a country with an IPR strength similar to the level of Chile increases its IPR protection to the strength of Taiwan, the probability of forming JVs in that country will increase by 13.8%. One policy implication of this study is that developing countries can stimulate local participation by IPR reform.     

Do Trees Grow with the Economy? A Spatial Analysis of the Determinants of Forest Cover Change in Sichuan,China

This paper aims to identify the relationship between economic growth and forest cover change in Sichuan, China. Using a set of panel land use data based on Landsat TM/ETM digital images, we show that during the late 1980s and 1990s, Sichuan’s forest cover initially decreased and then rose. We also note that the rising and falling trends occurred at the same time that Sichuan’s economy was going through a period of rapid and sustained growth. We use multivariate analysis to identify the determinants of forest cover change. In addition to using a first-differenced estimator, we also utilize spatial error and spatial lag models to obtain consistent and efficient estimates of the determinants of forest cover. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of economic growth on the forest cover change; the results show that there is a U-shaped relationship between forest cover and GDP per capita. However, despite the nature of the empirical relationship between forest cover and income, the high turning point of the U-shaped relationship suggests that there is no evidence for the existence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve for forests in Sichuan Province. Hence, policy interventions may be necessary to stop the decrease of forests.