A Semiparametric Method for Valuing Residential Locations: Application to Automated Valuation

This paper is motivated by automated valuation systems, which would benefit from an ability to estimate spatial variation in location value. It develops theory for the local regression model (LRM), a semiparametric approach to estimating a location value surface. There are two parts to the LRM: (1) an ordinary least square (OLS) model to hold constant for interior square footage, land area, bathrooms, and other structural characteristics; and (2) a non-parametric smoother (local polynomial regression, LPR) which calculates location value as a function of latitude and longitude. Several methods are used to consistently estimate both parts of the model. The LRM was fit to geocoded hedonic sales data for six towns in the suburbs of Boston, MA. The estimates yield substantial, significant and plausible spatial patterns in location values. Using the LRM as an exploratory tool, local peaks and valleys in location value identified by the model are close to points identified by the tax assessor, and they are shown to add to the explanatory power of an OLS model. Out-of-sample MSE shows that the LRM with a first-degree polynomial (local linear smoothing) is somewhat better than polynomials of degree zero or degree two. Future applications might use degree zero (the well-known NW estimator) because this is available in popular commercial software. The optimized LRM reduces MSE from the OLS model by between 5 percent and 11 percent while adding information on statistically significant variations in location value.     

Constructing Commercial Indices: A Semiparametric Adaptive Estimator Approach

Constant-quality commercial indices generated by ordinary least squares may suffer an efficiency loss due to leptokurtosis caused by outliers in transactions data. When the subsequent nonnormality occurs, substantial improvement in index precision is obtained by estimating the hedonic model using a semiparametric adaptive estimator technique. When this method was applied to 1,846 office transactions that occurred in the Phoenix metropolitan area from January 1997 through June 2004, a substantial standard error reduction of approximately 9% was realized relative to ordinary least squares estimates. The difference in average returns between the semiparametric method and ordinary least squares was about 0.25% in each period, which represents a substantial increase in commercial property index precision. JEL Classification C4 R0     

Transportation Improvements and Land Values in the Antebellum United States: A Hedonic Approach

We offer county-level estimates of the effect of water and rail access on the value of antebellum farms. Employing a hedonic model, we find that in 1850 average farm values in counties with access to a canal or navigable river were $2.68 per acre greater than counties without such access and $1.80 greater with rail access. In 1860 the figures were $3.75 for a canal or river access and $1.35 for rail. With average farm size around 200 acres and per capita national income roughly $150 during the decade, we conclude that on average transportation access yielded substantial economic gains.     

Directional Land Value Gradients

The standard urban model supports the concept of a constant land price gradient throughout the urban area. It is a reasonable conjecture that the land price gradient would vary with direction from the CBD. The variation in the gradient could be caused by a number of factors, but the idea that the land price gradient is flatter along radial transportation routes than in other directions is widely recognized even though there is little rigorous empirical work supporting this belief. This paper will examine the structure of urban land prices with a focus on the land price gradient as a function of the direction around the center of the city using a piecewise linear function. The added flexibility in the gradient estimate gained by this approach reveals a dramatically varying directional land price gradient.

Land Values: Size Matters

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - Using Clark County, Nevada land auction data from the Bureau of Land Management, we find evidence that the price paid per acre of land initially...     

土地增值税立法:目的引入与税制修正

相较于暂行条例,《土地增值税法(征求意见稿)》未设置立法目的条款,未明确税种主要属性,只在立法说明中简单阐释立法意义和税制功能,此种立法技术很难经得起正当性拷问,既无法为集体土地增值税制明确构成要件和发展趋向提供指引,还在程序和实体两个维度抑制土地增值税调控功能的充分发挥.立法目的绝非可有可无的对象,而是税收立法的起点和税制正当性的来源,是在理论上、实务中提醒和督促祛除课税弊端的最佳利器.土地增值税是地方调控税,财政目的位居其次,若欲进一步夯实其立法正当性基础,应重新设置目的条款,即"为推动房地产市场健康发展,合理调节土地增值收益,健全地方税体系,制定本法".做实土地增值税立法目的,有利于调控税制并使集体土地增值税制相关问题尽快得到解决,推进税收实质法治建设.     

Land Prices and Land Assembly in the CBD

There is substantial empirical evidence of price concavity in the parcel-size dimension across land-use types and across urban regions. This article examines the degree to which concavity varies between the Central Business District (CBD) and the rest of the urban area. The article provides strong empirical support that the degree of concavity within the CBD is lower than in the rest of the county. Although concavity may be the dominant pricing relationship throughout most urban areas, there is some evidence of the presence of a convex price structure within the urban center.     

我国农村土地制度的产权经济分析

近年来我国农村发生了土地制度的深刻变革,变革的核心是土地产权制度的变迁。这种制度变迁在某种程度上具有帕累托改进的性质,但在某些方面还有待于发展和完善。我国农村土地产权制度建设的思路:以现行产权制度为基础,通过修订和完善,不断发挥现行产权制度的积极作用。     

博弈论视角下的耕地保护制度与失地农民补偿体系研究

目前,我国耕地保护的现状和失地农民补偿体系存在的问题应当引起我们的高度重视。基于博弈论的分析和当前现状,中央政府应对现有的耕地保护制度进行创新,改革当前的失地农民补偿体系,提高保护耕地补贴,妥善处理好中央、地方、农民之间的利益关系,贯彻落实科学发展观,建设美好和谐的人类家园。     

The Structure of Chinese Urban Land Prices: Estimates from Benchmark Land Price Data

Taking the recent benchmark land prices published by the Chinese city governments, the paper estimates commercial and residential land price curves of Chinese cities using cross-sectional data, controlling for urban population size and income level. The urban land leasing price–distance relationship is estimated based on the argument that monocentric urban structure is representative for Chinese cities. Both population size and income level are found to positively affect urban land price and price–distance gradients. Commercial land prices are higher than residential land prices except in suburbs or outer central urban areas, where the land prices of different uses converge. In most situations, commercial use price gradients are larger than those of residential use.

Pricing Residential Amenities: The Value of a View

This study provides estimates of the value of the view amenity in single-family residential real estate markets. A focus on Bellingham, Washington, a city with a variety of views, including ocean, lake, and mountain, allows for differentiation of the view amenity by both type and quality. Results from a hedonic model estimated for several recent years suggest that depending on the particular view, willingness to pay for this amenity is quite high. The highest-quality ocean views are found to increase the market price of an otherwise comparable home by almost 60%; the lowest-quality ocean views are found to add about 8%. For ocean views of all quality levels, the value of a view is found to vary inversely with distance from the water.     

Railroad Development and Land Value

Land owners in the rural Midwest experienced significant capital gains during the late 1840s and early 1850s. A primary catalyst of increasing land values was the construction of new railroads. Land in close proximity to new railroads became more valuable because of decreased transportation costs. We use a straightforward model of land price determination to estimate the impact on land values of distance from the railroad. The estimates allow us to infer a lower bound for capital gains attributable to the construction of railroads in Knox County, Illinois, during the 1850s. Knox County landowners reaped capital gains of more than $270,000—9% of the value of land.     

Size and Value Anomalies under Regime Shifts

This paper finds strong evidence of time-variations in the jointdistribution of returns on a stock market portfolio and portfoliostracking size- and value effects. Mean returns, volatilitiesand correlations between these equity portfolios are found tobe driven by underlying regimes that introduce short-run markettiming opportunities for investors. The magnitude of the premiaon the size and value portfolios and their hedging propertiesare found to vary across regimes. Regimes are shown to havea large impact both on the optimal asset allocation—especiallyunder rebalancing—and on investors' utility. Regimes alsohave a considerable impact on hedging demands, which are positivewhen the investor starts from more favorable regimes and negativewhen starting from bad states. Recursive out-of-sample forecastingexperiments show that portfolio strategies based on models thataccount for regimes dominate single-state benchmarks.     

基于信托制度的农村土地流转制度创新:青州南小王村案例剖析

推动土地流转实现农村土地规模化和集约化经营已是大势所趋。青州市南小王村与中信信托公司合作,设计农村土地承包经营权集合信托产品,借助信托公司平台对土地和资金两种资源进行整合运作。从南小王村案例可以看出,土地承包经营权集合信托符合我国农村土地法律规定,更顺应了农村土地改革政策导向,是农村土地流转的有效形式;实现了土地资源有效配置、信息有效利用和激励相容,能够有效推动农村土地流转;但融资机制设计尚有改进空间,需通过引入政府因素等方式予以优化。     

房地产税收的一般经济分析

房地产税作为地方政府理想的收入来源,对于实质性财政分权制度的建立具有非常重要的作用。关于房地产税的税负归宿问题,理论界存在三种不同的观点。但这三种观点并不是相互排斥的,在不同的情况下,每种观点可能都是有效的。按照现代资产定价理论,房地产税收通过改变住宅投资的预期增值,从而影响住宅资产价格的走势。     

土地利用变化及生态系统服务价值响应

本文采用土地利用动态度、土地利用综合指数这两个定量化模型,对2003-2010年内蒙古包头市达茂旗的土地利用变化及由土地利用变化所引起的生态系统服务价值的变化进行了分析.结果表明,达茂旗土地利用结构变化显著,总体的土地利用程度逐年降低,生态系统服务价值也随着当地经济的发展逐渐下降.因此,今后达茂旗的发展一定要提高土地利用效率,注重生态环境质量,合理规划土地利用结构,从而实现土地资源可持续利用和生态、社会、经济的可持续发展.     

A Semiparametric Two-Factor Term Structure Model

This article proposes a semiparametric two-factor term structuremodel based on a consol rate and the spread between a shortrate and the consol rate. The diffusion functions in both theconsol rate and spread processes are nonparametrically specifiedso that the model allows for maximal flexibility of diffusionfunctions in fitting into data. The drift function of the spreadprocess is specified as a mean-reverting function, while thedrift function of the consol rate process is left unrestricted.A nonparametric procedure is developed for estimating the diffusionfunctions. The asymptotic biases of the nonparametric estimatorsare quantified when the step of discretization is fixed, whilethe asymptotic distributions of the nonparametric estimatorsare derived when the step of discretization tends to zero. Thepricing and hedging performances of the model are evaluatedin a simulated economic environment. Results show that the modelperforms quite well in the simulated economy.     

Auditor Size,Market Segmentation and Litigation Patterns: A Theoretical Analysis

We provide a theoretical rationale for the observed audit industry structure where well-capitalized auditors hold an extremely large market share. Our analysis focuses on the economics of trading in an adverse selection market where audit quality is unobservable. We show that concentration of market share can arise even if well-capitalized auditors have no relative advantage with regard to supplying high-quality audits, and that the strategy of attracting a narrow base of high-margin clients is typically unsustainable in rational expectations equilibrium. Other results derived from our analysis of strategic competition for clients also conform (qualitatively) with empirical findings regarding audit fee structures and litigation rates. In particular, we show that better-capitalized auditors get a dominant market share, produce more accurate reports and are more profitable. In addition, we show that the imposition of high minimum standards increases the market power of wealthy auditors, even though smaller auditors can potentially provide the same level of audit quality at lower fees. All these results are demonstrated within a framework that endogenizes both a securities trading market and profit-maximizing auditors who strategically compete for clients.JEL Classification: C72, D43, D82, K23, K41, L15     

Land as Production Input and Collateral: Land Investment by Japanese Firms

Is the collateral role an empirically important determinant of investment in land? We study what has determined the land investment by Japanese firms since the 1990s, after the collapse of the asset-price bubble. With a large panel data set, we estimate nonlinear land-investment functions and calculate q for land assets. The estimates confirm the dual roles of land assets: production inputs and collateral. Firms sold land assets in response to the decline in their sales and the deterioration in financial conditions. Partial q for land assets was generally below one during the period.     

董事会规模与公司价值关系的进一步检验——基于公司规模门槛效应的分析

对于董事会规模与公司价值之间的关系,以往的研究得出了完全不同的两种结论,分析原因可能是因为公司在确定董事会规模时很大程度上取决于公司规模大小。本研究通过检验发现,公司规模对董事会规模具有门槛效果,通过使用门槛自回归模型可以更好地解释董事会规模和公司价值之间的关系,实证研究的结果表明,在公司规模相对较小的门槛区间,董事会规模和公司价值之间存在显著的正相关关系,而在公司规模较大的门槛区间,董事会规模与公司价值之间的关系在统计上不显著,但符号上表现为负相关关系。