The informativeness of on-line advertising

Sending general advertisements with inflationary claims may attract additional visitors with whom an advertiser is poorly matched. This is costly when ads are priced per-click because many visitors (clickers) will not purchase. This renders per-click advertising particularly conducive to the transmission of information via ads. The admissibility of information transmission depends not only on advertiser behaviour, but also upon consumers' interpretation of and trust in ads. In less conducive environments, consumers quickly learn to place little stock in the claims they see advertised. This mechanism undermines the ability of advertisers and consumers to communicate under per-impression or per-sale fee structures. Consumers benefit from increased informativeness, but distortions introduced by the market power given to advertisers imply that society may be better-off with no information transmission taking place.     

Referrals in search markets

This paper compares the equilibrium outcomes in search markets with and without referrals. Although it seems clear that consumers would benefit from referrals, it is not at all clear whether firms would unilaterally provide information about competing offers since such information could encourage consumers to purchase the product elsewhere. In a model of a horizontally differentiated product market with sequential consumer search, we show that valuable referrals can arise in the equilibrium: a firm will give referrals to consumers whose ideal product is sufficiently far away from the firm's offering. We allow firms to price-discriminate among consumers, and consumers to misrepresent their tastes. We found that the equilibrium profits tend to be higher in markets with referrals than in markets without. Consumers tend to be better off in the presence of referrals when search costs are not too low, and under a certain parameter range, referrals lead to a Pareto improvement.     

The effects of personal information on competition: Consumer privacy and partial price discrimination

This article studies the effects of consumer information on the intensity of competition. In a two dimensional duopoly model of horizontal product differentiation, firms use consumer information to price discriminate. I contrast a full privacy and a no privacy benchmark with intermediate regimes in which the firms can profile consumers only partially. I show that with partial privacy firms are always better-off with price discrimination: the relationship between information and profits is hump-shaped. In particular, competing firms prefer to target consumers with partial but asymmetric information about preferences. Instead, consumers prefer either no or full privacy in aggregate, but the effects of information on individual surplus are ambiguous: there are always winners and losers. Finally, I study the information acquisition incentives of the firms when there is an external data seller. When this upstream data broker holds partially informative data, an exclusive allocation arises. Instead, when data is fully informative, each competitor acquires consumer data but on a different dimension. These findings are relevant for the strategic decisions of firms active in digital markets and contribute to the policy debate surrounding privacy, exclusive access to data and competition.     

Search engines: Left side quality versus right side profits

Search engines face an interesting tradeoff in choosing the way to display their results. While providing high quality unpaid, or “left side” results attracts users, doing so can also cannibalize the revenue that comes from paid ads on the “right side”. This paper examines this tradeoff, focusing, in particular, on the role of users' post-search interaction with the websites whose links are displayed. In the model, high quality left side results boost demand from users, causing them to tolerate a search engine on which advertisers do not offer the lowest possible prices for the goods that they sell. However, because websites appearing on the left side still have an incentive to compete in the same market as advertisers, an increase in quality on the left side may reduce advertisers' equilibrium prices. I analyze the circumstances under which this will occur and discuss the model's potential implications for antitrust policy.     

Inducing Customers to Try New Goods

In recent years, progresses in data mining and business analytics have fostered the advent of recommender systems, behavioral advertising, and other ways of using consumer data to personalize offers and products. We investigate the incentives for sellers to invest in systems that allow the tracking of consumers and then to truthfully report whether potential buyers will enjoy yet untried products. We find that there are two types of equilibria: For some parameter values, sellers will target all potential buyers, hence their targeted ads or purchase recommendations provide no benefit to the consumer. But for other values, ads and recommendations will be accurate. In particular, the incentive for the seller to provide accurate ads and recommendations will be inversely related to the difference between the cost of producing the good and its average market evaluation.     

Implementing COOL: Comparative welfare effects of different labeling schemes

Country-of-origin labeling (COOL) is being implemented in different forms and degrees in the United States and other countries across the world. The first implementation of mandatory country of origin labeling (MCOOL) in the United States was for seafood in 2005. This is an example of partial MCOOL because it exempts the foodservice sector and excludes processed seafood from labeling. Using a conceptual framework, we analyze the welfare impacts of partial MCOOL when compared to no, voluntary, and total mandatory COOL, taking into account imperfect competition in the downstream markets, information asymmetry, and diversion of low-quality product to the unlabeled market. The model is general enough to apply to any incomplete regulation for which the perceived low-quality product is required to be labeled, such as the labeling of genetically modified food in the European Union. Our results show that when consumers have a strong enough preference for domestic relative to imported product, regulators can overestimate the gain in consumer welfare from partial mandatory labeling if they ignore the diversion of lower quality imports to the unlabeled sector. We show that if the preference for domestic product is large enough, total MCOOL benefits the home market the most overall, including domestic consumers and producers, but not the imperfectly competitive downstream agents. However, if total MCOOL is too costly to implement, partial MCOOL is the second-best solution, but only if consumers falsely believe the unlabeled product to be of higher quality than it truly is. Our results suggest more research is needed to determine the extent to which consumers value the information provided by MCOOL and to enable regulators to consider the welfare impact of diversion in evaluating incomplete mandatory labeling regulations.     

Can data-driven precision marketing promote user ad clicks? Evidence from advertising in WeChat moments

Data-driven precision marketing (e.g. personalized online ads based on big data analysis or optimal personalized recommendation algorithms) has been regarded as a crucial way for manufacturers to improve the marketing effect. However, the current studies leave much to be further explored. This study constructed a conceptual model based on cue utilization theory focusing on the effects of consumer perceptions to the personalized online ads on click-through intention. Empirical results based on data from a survey of 446 WeChat moments users in China showed that: (1) consumer's ad click-through intention increased as a result of employing a higher extent of product involvement, brand familiarity, visual attractiveness and information quality to consumer; (2) trust played a role of mediation in the processes of visual attractiveness and information quality affecting click-through intention; (3) the higher product involvement also stimulated the consumer's privacy concerns, which played negative moderating effects on the positive impacts of product involvement, brand familiarity and trust on click-through intention. The findings contributed to the precision marketing literature by enriching an understanding of psychological mechanism underlying consumers' perception and cognitive factors toward the personalized online ads.     

Endogenous horizontal mergers under cost uncertainty

This paper presents a study of endogenous horizontal mergers under cost uncertainty. Before knowing the exact values of their costs, firms decide sequentially whether or not to join a merger. After the merger decision is made, uncertainty is resolved and firms engage in Cournot competition with incomplete information about one another's costs. Due to production rationalization, the merged firms enjoy an advantage over non-merged firms in the sense that the merged firms' expected cost is lower. I show that mergers occur if and only if the uncertainty is large and that the larger the uncertainty, the greater the number of firms that will merge. Although a merger reduces competition and therefore hurts consumers, it improves productivity under cost uncertainty. I find that a merger increases social welfare whenever there are at least four firms in the industry before the merger.     

Is all communication created equal?: an investigation into the effects of communication mode on perceived information quality

Enhancing communication between functions is crucial to successful product development and management. Previous work in the product innovation management literature has made two implicit assumptions. First, that increasing the frequency of information dissemination from one function to the other always improves the perceived quality of the information received. The second assumption is that all types of interfunctional communication carry equal weight in the decision‐making process of the target of that communication. The current study develops a typology of communication modes, which suggests a rationale for why these assumptions may not be true. The empirical findings of the study, based on a survey of 504 nonmarketing managers indicate that the relationship between total communication frequency and perceived information quality (PIQ) is nonlinear. Specifically, the study finds that marketing managers can either communicate too little or too much with nonmarketing managers. If they interact too infrequently, they run the risk of not understanding the way to most effectively communicate market information. If they communicate too much, they may overload the manager with too much information and erode the overall quality of the information sent. In addition, some modes of communication are more effective in improving perceptions of the quality of market information. For instance, regular e‐mail sent by marketing managers seems to have no effect on perceived information quality. On the other hand, e‐mail sent with supporting documentation can have a strong positive effect on perceived information quality. Impromptu phone calls by marketing have less positive effects than scheduled phone calls. Interestingly, too much of the wrong types of communication actually seem to reduce perceptions of perceived information quality, and consequently the likelihood that market information will be used. The study also suggests that certain kinds of communication are better for manufacturing managers and others more effective in sharing information with R&D managers. For instance, disseminating information through written reports seems to reduce perceived information quality. This is particularly true for R&D managers. On the other hand too many meetings can reduce perceptions of PIQ, particularly on the part of manufacturing managers. Implications for theory and practice are discussed.     

Consumer privacy in oligopolistic markets: Winners,losers, and welfare

Motivated by the unprecedented availability of consumer information on the Internet, we characterize the winners and losers from potential privacy regulation in the context of four commonly-used oligopoly models: a linear city model, a circular city model, a vertical differentiation model, and a multi-unit symmetric demand model. We show that while there are winners and losers as a result of privacy enforcement, the parties who stand to benefit and the parties who stand to lose, as well as whether social welfare is enhanced or diminished, largely depends on the specific economic setting under consideration.     

Consumer referrals

In many industries, firms reward their customers for making referrals. We analyze a monopoly’s optimal policy mix of price, advertising intensity, and referral fee when buyers choose to what extent to refer other consumers to the firm. When the referral fee can be optimally set by the firm, it will charge the standard monopoly price. The firm always advertises less when it uses referrals. We extend the analysis to the case where consumers can target their referrals. In particular, we show that referral targeting could be detrimental for consumers in a low-valuation group.     

Is quality accreditation effective? Evidence from the childcare market

The ineffectiveness of a quality accreditation mechanism can be attributed to the inability of the accreditation status to provide consumers with information they do not already possess. I present a structural model of demand allowing consumers to infer quality from both accreditation status and firm reputation. I then estimate this model to assess the effectiveness and the impact of the national accreditation system for childcare centers on consumer welfare. My results suggest that disregarding the endogeneity of firms' accreditation choices significantly underestimates the effectiveness of the accreditation system. However, on average consumers do not gain much information beyond what they have inferred from a firm's reputation. The estimates of structural parameters are then used to quantify the value of this information to consumers.     

Threat of entry,asymmetric information,and pricing

This paper examines the impact of asymmetric information on incumbent firms' propensity to engage in limit pricing when faced with threat of entry. I draw from information economics to argue that incumbents will use price to respond ex ante to entry in situations characterized by asymmetric information. I suggest two situations in which asymmetric information can arise: when potential entrants are from outside the primary industry and when incumbent firms are members of R&D consortia. I then study pricing in the U.S. cable TV industry to show that pricing patterns of incumbent cable TV systems are consistent with limit pricing when the relationship between the incumbent and potential entrant is characterized by asymmetric information. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Pricing with Endogenous Direct Advertising in a Monopoly

This paper develops a model of informative advertising in which a firm builds a database using its historical sales records in order to directly target ads on those consumers who have a high probability of purchasing its products. We show that the firm can use this type of direct advertising as a screening mechanism to identify high demand consumers. As a result, direct advertising can work essentially as a device to increase a firm's monopoly power. From a social point of view, this implies that the transition from traditional mass-advertising to direct advertising can generate a trade-off between higher advertising efficiency and greater monopoly power. We compute the model to shed light on the relative strength of these two forces, and find that while direct advertising might have a substantial negative impact on consumers, this advertising technology can only occasionally reduce welfare.     

A More General Framework to Analyze Whether Voluntary Disclosure is Insufficient or Excessive

I analyze if the excessive quality disclosure finding of the “classical literature” extends to environments in which consumers have a downward-sloping demand. While the answer is affirmative, there are at least two situations under which disclosure is socially insufficient: (1) when there are quality levels that are too low to generate any positive demand; and (2) when the prior beliefs place sufficiently higher weight on lower qualities. In both cases, non-disclosure by the seller leads to a severe reduction in the perceived quality, thereby significantly lowering the demand and the quantity consumed.     

Unionization structure, licensing and innovation

We show the effects of the unionization structure (viz., decentralized and centralized unions) on a firm's incentive for technology licensing and innovation. The incentive for technology licensing is stronger under decentralized unions. We identify circumstances under which the benefit from licensing creates a stronger incentive for innovation under decentralized unions. If the union's preference for employment is high, the benefit from licensing may create higher incentive for innovation under decentralized unions. However, if the union's preference for wage is high enough, the incentive for innovation is higher under a centralized union irrespective of licensing ex-post innovation. If the centralized union decides whether or not to supply workers to all firms, the possibility of higher innovation under decentralized unions increases. We further show that perfectly substitutable workers can be better off under decentralized unions if the labor productivity depends on the unionization structure, which occurs in our analysis when, e.g., licensing after innovation occurs only under decentralized unions or innovation (with no licensing) occurs only under a centralized union.     

HORIZONTAL MERGERS,STRUCTURAL REMEDIES,AND CONSUMER WELFARE IN A COURNOT OLIGOPOLY WITH ASSETS*

Competition authorities sometimes require that firms divest some of their assets to rivals in order to allow a merger to take place. This paper extends the results of Farrell and Shapiro [1990a] and shows that, in the absence of technological synergies, a merger is highly unlikely to benefit consumers, even if it is subjected to appropriate structural remedies. For instance, a merger may ultimately lead to a lower price only if at least two different firms acquire the divested assets, and if the merging parties had relatively important pre‐merger market shares.     

One pool to insure them all? Age,risk and the price(s) of medical insurance

Asymmetric information can lead to adverse selection and market failure. In a dynamic setting, asymmetric information also limits reclassification risk. This certainty offsets the costs of adverse selection. Using a dynamic model of endogenous insurance choice and price calibrated to the U.S. medical insurance market, I find that asymmetric information is Pareto improving when information is fully asymmetric. However, when insurers can discriminate by age group, but not within age groups, the young benefit by paying less for insurance. The insurance market for the near elderly collapses because it is no longer implicitly subsidized by the participation of the young.     

Tying in evolving industries,when future entry cannot be deterred

We show that the incentive to engage in exclusionary tying (of two complementary products) may arise even when tying cannot be used as a defensive strategy to protect the incumbent’s dominant position in the primary market. By engaging in tying, an incumbent firm sacrifices current profits but can exclude a more efficient rival from a complementary market by depriving it of the critical scale it needs to be successful. In turn, exclusion in the complementary market allows the incumbent to be in a favorable position when a more efficient rival will enter the primary market, and to appropriate some of the rival’s efficiency rents. The paper also shows that tying is a more profitable exclusionary strategy than pure bundling, and that exclusion is the less likely the higher the proportion of consumers who multi-home.     

LARGE IS BEAUTIFUL: HORIZONTAL MERGERS FOR BETTER EXPLOITATION OF PRODUCTION SHOCKS*

The profitability of horizontal mergers is investigated in a situation in which firms face a production shock and therefore are uncertain about their future costs. I show that, due to production rationalization, small‐scale mergers can be profitable if the uncertainty is large. The efficiency gain in production also implies benign welfare consequences. Under cost uncertainty, a profitable merger always improves social welfare if no more than half of the industry's firms are allowed to merge. Finally, I show that the incentives to merge depend on the information structure. Firms are less likely to merge when they possess more information.