Cost Signals under Uncertain R&D Outcomes

When it is difficult for firms to differentiate their products from those of their competitors, research and development (R&D) spending on process innovation to lower the cost of production is crucial for profitability. However, the information asymmetry in production costs that results from innovation reduces the efficiency of all firms in a market for a homogeneous good. We employ a signalling game to discuss the feasibility of utilising R&D spending and output levels as cost signals in an environment of quantity competition. The results show that a firm does not spend its money on R&D solely to signal the type of cost. Rather, R&D spending may be chosen as a cost signal over the output level only if expenditures on R&D can lead to a sufficiently high probability of reducing production costs.     

Disentangling the effects of process and product innovation on cost and demand

ABSTRACT

We explore in this note different structural models of the impact of process and product innovation on firms' demand and production cost functions. We find that the introduction of process and product innovations affects them differently as could be expected. Both product and process innovation shift forward the demand for the products of the firm. Process innovation reduces production marginal cost, but not always. A possibility, that we cannot prove or reject with the current specification of our models and available data, is that process innovation associated with product innovation raise marginal cost. Interestingly, we also find that advertising significantly augments demand but does not affect production marginal cost. To obtain broader conclusions, richer data will be needed allowing an enlargement of the model, in which process and product innovations could be specified distinctively and well identified.     

Cooperation or competition in R&D when innovation and absorption are costly

This article analyzes cost-reducing R&D investments by firms that behave non-cooperatively or cooperatively. Firms face a trade-off between allocating their R&D investments to innovate or to imitate (absorb). We find that the non-cooperative behavior not only induces more imitation (absorption) but also, for the most part, more innovation investments. Only the cooperative behavior, however, ensures that R&D investments are allocated efficiently to innovation and to imitation (absorption) in the sense that any given amount of industry-wide cost reduction is obtained for the minimum overall R&D costs.     

An evolutionary model of energy transitions with interactive innovation-selection dynamics

We develop a stylized application of a new evolutionary model to study an energy transition in electricity production. The framework describes a population of boundedly rational electricity producers who decide each period on the allocation of profits among different energy technologies. They tend to invest in below-average cost energy technologies, while also devoting a small fraction of profits to alternative technological options and research on recombinant innovation. Energy technologies are characterized by costs falling with cumulative investments. Without the latter, new technologies have no chance to become cost competitive. We study the conditions under which a new energy technology emerges and technologies coexist. In addition, we determine which investment heuristics are optimal in the sense of minimizing the total cost of electricity production. This is motivated by the idea that, while diversity contributes to system adaptability (innovation) and resilience to unforeseen contingencies (keeping options open), a high cost will discourage investments in it.     

中国工业产业结构与企业技术研发行为的实证分析

产业结构升级一直是我国经济学界所关心的一个问题，工业产业的升级更是一个众所关注的焦点。本文在前人研究的基础上，利用中国工业产业数据，采用了经典的SCP范式模型．对熊彼特的两个经典假说进行了验证。发现竞争与企业利润同时对企业研发具有促进作用．熊彼特两个相互矛盾的结论同时得到了支持。通过对应分析，我们对中国工业内产业不同特点和企业不同特点进行了归类，提出国有企业在不同行业的产值比重是导致了这两个看似矛盾的结论同时并存的原因。     

VENTURE CAPITAL AND INNOVATION: WHICH IS FIRST?

Policy‐makers typically interpret positive relations between venture capital (VC) investments and innovations as evidence that VC investments stimulate innovation (VC‐first hypothesis). This interpretation is, however, one‐sided because there may be a reverse causality that innovations induce VC investments (innovation‐first hypothesis): an arrival of new technology increases demand for VC. We analyze this causality issue of VC and innovation in the US manufacturing industry using both total factor productivity growth and patent counts as measures of innovation. We find that, consistent with the innovation‐first hypothesis, total factor productivity growth is often positively and significantly related with future VC investment. We find little evidence that supports the VC‐first hypothesis.     

BOD7 production function of the Finnish pulp and paper industry

Traditional neoclassical production theory analyzes the relationship in a production process between inputs and outputs which have a positive market value for the producer. The externalities of production, which have nonpositive market values, are discarded or included as the cost in a cost function. This paper studies the relationship between biological oxygen demand (BOD) emissions, an output of nonpositive value, and traditional factors of production, that is, investments, labor, output, and raw materials. An emissions production function is theoretically presented and empirically estimated with data from the Finnish pulp and paper industry. The approach is based on the observation that it is the minimization of effluents rather than, or together with, the maximization of yields, that increasingly defines the technological frontier of production processes. The empirical function estimation demonstrates the validity of the proposed novel modeling approach.     

R&;D: A Small Contribution to Productivity Growth

In this article I evaluate the contribution of R&D investments to productivity growth. The basis for the analysis are the free entry condition and the fact that most R&D innovations are embodied. Free entry yields a relationship between the resources devoted to R&D and the growth rate of technology. Since innovators are small, this relationship is not directly affected by the size of R&D externalities, or the presence of aggregate diminishing returns in R&D after controlling for the growth rate of output and the interest rate. The embodiment of R&D-driven innovations bounds the size of the production externalities. The resulting contribution of R&D to productivity growth in the US is smaller than 3–5 tenths of 1% point. This constitutes an upper bound for the case where innovators internalize the consequences of their R&D investments on the cost of conducting future innovations. From a normative perspective, this analysis implies that, if the innovation technology takes the form assumed in the literature, the actual US R&D intensity may be the socially optimal.     

Electric Utility Restructuring,Regulation of Distribution Utilities,and the Fallacy of "Avoided Cost" Rules

We show that commonly used "avoided cost" rules, which evaluate investment alternatives by comparing their costs to forecasts of future expected cost, are fundamentally flawed for choosing local area investments in distribution capacity. Use of avoided cost rules: 1) confuses cost-effectiveness tests with benefit-cost tests; 2) makes inappropriate marginal comparisons and violates necessary optimality conditions because of the "lumpy" nature of many distribution system investments; 3) fails to incorporate the effects of uncertainty properly; 4) necessarily leads to excess deferral or traditional distribution capacity investments with distributed generation and DSM investments; and 5) does not lead to lowest expected cost investment plans. We conclude by outlining a more appropriate approach to evaluating distribution investments based on evaluations of actual cash flows associated with investment alternatives under uncertainty.     

Knowledge investments, business R&D and innovativeness of countries: A qualitative meta-analytic comparison

The relationship between knowledge investments, innovation and competitiveness is an important topic in both academic research and economic policy and has been studied extensively over the past decades. Nowadays, investments in private and public R&D are believed to make up the heart of a modern knowledge economy. The present paper adopts an evolutionary economics perspective and investigates whether, in addition to private R&D activities, also institutional support systems and policy interventions play a role in inducing innovation initiatives and creating impacts on the performance and competitiveness of industries. We aim to find support for the hypothesis that the competitiveness of industries in the international arena is sustained by the dynamic interaction between national, regional and sectoral innovation systems. This may provide stakeholders with a better understanding of the context in which they operate. Since according to the evolutionary metaphor, the growth of an innovation system follows complex dynamics that cannot simply be analysed within a static quantitative equilibrium framework, we use here an alternative approach based on qualitative pattern recognition analysis originating from artificial intelligence analysis. Besides R&D expenditures, human capital expenditures are regarded as the major input in the knowledge creation process in our analytical framework. To this end, in our paper a qualitative causal model that maps out conditional relations between key factors in national innovation systems will be described. The focus of our investigation is on systematic patterns in the competitiveness of the EU Member States, using statistical information on innovation input and output data from the European Innovation Scoreboard. In our analysis we find support for the hypothesis that there are indeed significant interactions between distinct institutional levels, which may provide guidance to the strategic orientation of nations and the European Union in terms of the emphasis on competitiveness vis-à-vis cohesion.     

A portfolio approach to climate investments: CAPM and endogenous risk

Is there a role for investments in climate change mitigation despite low expected return? We use a model of intertemporal expected utility maximisation to analyse this question. Similar to the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) the rate of return depends on the correlation of risk between the return on investments in climate change mitigation and the market portfolio, but in contrast to the classical CAPM we admit the fact that economic and environmental systems are jointly determined, implying that environmental risk is endogenous. Therefore, investments in climate change mitigation may reduce risk via self-protection and self-insurance. If risk reduction is accounted for in cost–benefit evaluations, climate investments may be justified despite low expected return. These aspects of climate investments are not, however, communicated via standard cost–benefit analyses of climate policy. Optimal climate policy may therefore be more ambitious than previously considered.     

Optimal financial investments for non-concave utility functions

We prove a formula for the computation of optimal financial investments in an expected utility framework with arbitrary (not necessarily concave) utility functions. This extends classical results on optimal financial investments for strictly concave utility functions and is of importance particularly for applications of prospect theory where the utility function has a convex-concave shape.     

INFLUENCING THE PUBLIC AND EFFICIENCY IN BUREAUCRATIC PROVISION

Abstract.  In the present paper a public bureau can extract additional budgetary allocations, not only by misreporting its production cost to its oversight committee but also by 'influencing' the perceptions of the public at large. I juxtapose the bureau's ability to influence the public with its ability to misreport to the oversight committee, and find that influencing the public might support an efficient level of production by invoking a separating equilibrium. However, a pooling equilibrium involving either overproduction or underproduction of output cannot be ruled out. Accordingly, overproduction could occur even when the bureau cares only about extracting excess budget and not increasing output per se.     

Patent Protection,Innovation and Technology Licensing

We show that the common wisdom suggesting higher investment in innovation under a stronger patent protection may not be true if the innovator can license its technology ex‐post innovation. If the initial cost of production is high and the slope of the marginal cost of undertaking innovation is moderate, investment in innovation is maximised at a patent protection that is weaker than the strongest patent protection. Otherwise, strongest patent protection maximises investment in innovation. We also show that welfare is maximised neither at the strongest patent protection nor at the weakest patent protection but at an intermediate patent protection. Our results are important for patent policies.     

Licensing a new product with non-linear contracts

Abstract .  This paper looks at a situation where a licensor owns a patent on a technology that allows the production of a new good. The licensor seeks to license its innovation to a set of producers that differ according to their marginal cost of producing an existing good. We show that the licensor is able to obtain the profit a monopolist would achieve by producing the new good. The equilibrium licensing contract specifies both a fixed fee and a royalty scheme based on the production of a licensee.     

技术异质性与区域低碳创新效率评价

加快生态文明体制改革,建设美丽中国的关键在于低碳创新能力和低碳创新效率提升。从技术异质性和节能减排约束出发,构建纳入技术异质性—非期望产出创新效率测算模型,借助我国省际面板数据,测度我国省际低碳创新效率。结果发现,未考虑污染排放情况下的创新效率值高估了节能减排约束下的情境,即非期望产出会降低创新活动效率。由于空间技术异质性,创新效率存在显著空间差异,呈现出“东部-中部-西部”效率依次递减格局,东部地区低碳生产技术更加接近有效前沿面,并且差距有逐步扩大趋势。     

Property Rights,Public Enforcement,and Growth

We study the link between public enforcement of property rights, innovation investments, and economic growth in an endogenous growth framework with an expanding set of product varieties. We find that a government can assure positive equilibrium growth through public employment in the enforcement of property rights, if the economic environment is sufficiently favorable to growth and/or if public enforcement is sufficiently effective. However, in terms of welfare, an equilibrium path without property‐rights protection and growth might be preferable. In this case, the enforcement of property rights involves too much reallocation of labor from production and research towards the public sector.     

Entry deterrence and innovation in durable-goods monopoly

This paper investigates the efficiency of innovation investments in a durable-goods monopoly when a potential entrant threatens to innovate as well. We show that the durability of the good endows the monopolist with the power to discourage rival innovation since current sales alter the demand for a new generation of the good. The equilibrium is therefore determined not only by the incentive for intertemporal price discrimination in durable-goods monopoly, but also by the incumbent's concern for maintaining the technological leadership. We demonstrate that entry deterrence followed by no innovation always implies underinvestment in innovation.     

Intellectual Property Rights and Crop-Improving R&D under Adaptive Destruction

This paper studies how the strength of intellectual property rights (IPRs) affects investments in biological innovations when the value of an innovation is stochastically reduced to zero because of the evolution of pest resistance. We frame the problem as a research and development (R&D) investment game in a duopoly model of sequential innovation. We characterize the incentives to invest in R&D under two competing IPR regimes, which differ in their treatment of the follow-on innovations that become necessary because of pest adaptation. Depending on the magnitude of the R&D cost, ex ante firms might prefer an intellectual property regime with or without a “research exemption” provision. The study of the welfare function that also accounts for benefit spillovers to consumers—which is possible analytically under some parametric conditions, and numerically otherwise—shows that the ranking of the two IPR regimes depends critically on the extent of the R&D cost.      

On representative social capital

This paper analyzes the behavior of subjects randomly drawn from the Dutch population who reveal their capacity to provide and sustain social capital by their propensity to invest and reward investments in an economic experiment. We find that heterogeneity in behavior is characterized by several asymmetries—men, the young and elderly, and low educated individuals invest relatively less, but reward significantly more investments. The age effects are found to corroborate existing findings, whereas those of gender and education do not. Higher expected levels of investments by others are found to have a positive and significant effect on own investments. Finally, a laboratory experiment with student subjects is found to provide a lower bound of the population level of social capital.