基于模糊综合分析法的我国石油储备安全评价体系探析

本文从分析影响石油储备安全评价的石油供应、需求、风险和价格等因素的角度出发,建立了一个基于模糊综合分析法的石油储备安全评价体系,并根据专家打分法和中国石油能源的相关数据,进行了实证研究。研究结果显示供求因素是影响石油储备安全的重要方面,而供求矛盾的加剧和石油价格的不断走高,使我国石油储备的安全现状不容乐观。从而,进一步提出了要加强我国石油储备建设的建议。     

浅谈新时期中国面临的石油危机

伴随着中国经济的高速发展,影响中国战略机遇期的新因素不断增加,其中中国面临的石油危机日益凸显,包括石油供求关系、南海争端、石油进口、运输及战略储备都影响到了我国石油安全。因此,为缓解中国石油市场供需压力、保障能源安全和减少石油对外依存度,我们应该审时度势,建立石油多元化战略、有效应对南海争端、完善石油战略储备体系,保证我国新时期经济更好、更快的发展。     

The effect of exchange rate volatility on U.S. bilateral trade with Africa: A symmetric and asymmetric analysis

The impact of exchange rate volatility on U.S. trade with the world or on U.S. trade with major partners has been assessed by many researchers, but none have considered the case of U.S. trade with African nations. We fill this gap by assessing the symmetric and asymmetric impact of the real bilateral exchange rate volatility between the U.S. dollar and each African partner’s currency on the U.S. trade flows with each of the 20 partners from Africa. We found asymmetric short-run effects of exchange rate volatility on almost all U.S. exports to and imports from each of the 20 countries. In addition, significant long-run asymmetric effects were discovered in the case of U.S. exports to 15 countries and U.S. imports from 12 countries. Our findings are partner-specific.     

The effects of oil price shocks on inflation in the G7 countries

This study examines the effects of three types of oil price shocks on inflation in the G7 countries with a new method of isolating oil price shocks. Based on monthly data from January 1997 to January 2019, we find that each oil price shock has the largest effect on U.S. inflation among the G7 countries and each country’s response to oil price shocks is different. Moreover, a rolling-window analysis shows that supply shocks, demand shocks and risk shocks have dynamic effects on inflation. The effect of supply shocks on inflation is strong before the financial crisis, but weakens during the crisis. However, the effect of demand shocks increases sharply in this time. The effect of risk shocks mainly occurs during the financial crisis and the European debt crisis. In addition, this study uses two ways to verify the robustness of the results. Our empirical results have important implications for policymakers and manufacturers, since the results provide a good explanation for the response of inflation in the G7 countries to the oil price shocks from different sources.     

Exchange rate volatility and fluctuations in the extensive margin of trade

The existing evidence for exporters׳ entry and exit in response to exchange rate movements is based on either low frequency data or a sample with large devaluations. Using quarterly data of U.S. bilateral trade with 99 countries, this study provides new evidence that the extensive margin of trade fluctuates over the business cycle. First, I show that the extensive margin of exports to the U.S. and the extensive margin of imports from the U.S. are more volatile than the output of almost all trading partners. Next, I find that fixing exchange rates with the U.S. dollar, having a free trade agreement with the U.S., and an increase in country size is significantly associated with the stability of the pattern of trade with the U.S.     

Leading indicators of inflation in market economies

Inflation rates are cyclical in major market-oriented economies. Recently Geoffrey H. Moore and Stanley Kaish applied the well-known leading indicator approach to the development of a leading index of inflation cycles for the United States. Their index was based on measures of tightness in the labor market, and a measure of tightness in total credit markets, along with a measure of changes in industrial commodity prices. They found that this composite index reflects changes in inflation rate cycles reasonably well, and that it was more reliable than any of the three components taken alone. The present study broadens their study by attempting to duplicate the leading inflation index for forecasting changes in inflation rates in Canada, the United Kingdom, West Germany, France, Italy, and Japan. In general we find that the leading index is useful in anticipating changes in inflation rates in all these countries with the exception of France and Italy. As such we find that the forecasting properties of this index are often as promising in other countries as they have been in the U.S. Where they are not we conclude that there is a need for further research.     

Capacity Investment under Demand Uncertainty: The Role of Imports in the U.S. Cement Industry

Demand uncertainty is thought to influence irreversible capacity decisions. Suppose that local demand can be sourced from domestic (rigid) production or from (flexible) imports. This paper shows that the optimal domestic capacity is either increasing or decreasing with demand uncertainty, depending on the relative level of the costs of domestic production and imports. We test this relationship with data from the U.S. cement industry, in which the difference in marginal cost between domestic production and imports varies across local U.S. markets because cement is costly to transport over land. Industry data for 1999 to 2010 are consistent with the predictions of the model. The introduction of two technologies to the production set—one rigid and one flexible—is crucial to understanding the relationship between capacity choice and uncertainty in this industry because there is no relationship between these two variables in aggregated U.S. data. Our analysis reveals that the relationship is negative in coastal districts, and significantly more positive in landlocked districts.     

Economic Growth and Quality of Life: A Comparative Indicator Analysis Between China (Taiwan), U.S.A. and Other Developed Countries

A bstract . A composite Quality of Life (QOL) indicator model of five major components — Social, Economic, Energy and Environmental, Health and Education , and National Vitality and Security —was developed. Based on cross-national data of 1975, 32 developed countries and China (Taiwan) were ranked according to their component and overall QOL measures. The influence of income and other variables on QOL was analyzed; it was found that the income variable is not as significantly related to the composite QOL indexes as are other variables and China (Taiwan's) QOL rankings far exceed its per capita income ranking in the international comparison. The U.S. surpassed all the countries studied in providing its citizens with basic human needs and the highest material standard of living. The national vitality and security component indicated, however, that the U.S. may have lost, militarily and strategically, some of its influence and perceived power to the U.S.S.R.     

Oil price shocks and credit spread: Structural effect and dynamic spillover

This study analyzes the heterogeneous response of U.S. credit spread to global oil price shocks by building an extended structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR), which can distinguish among the U.S. and non-US oil supply shocks, aggregated demand shocks and oil market-specific demand shocks behind the real oil prices. Meanwhile, a spillover index model developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) (hereafter D.Y. (2012)) is used to estimate the link between oil price shocks and the U.S. credit spread over time. The results show that (i) the credit spread does not respond to global oil supply shocks and non-US oil supply shocks, but has a negative reaction to the U.S. oil supply shocks, aggregate demand shocks, and oil-market-specific demand shocks. (ii) There exists a close connectedness between oil price shocks and the U.S. credit spread, and the link fluctuates cyclically and relates to the economic cycle and the U.S. shale oil revolution. (iii) The spillover from different oil price shocks to the U.S. credit spread shows significant heterogeneity over time. Our findings suggest that policymakers and investors can better track the U.S. credit spread changes using oil price information.     

Predictability of tail risks of Canada and the U.S. Over a Century: The role of spillovers and oil tail Risks☆

We examine the tail risk spillovers between Canada and U.S. stock markets using over a century data, and also account for the roles of tail risks of other advanced economies (France, Germany, Japan, Italy, Switzerland, and the UK) and oil-market tail risk. We use the “best” tail risk measure obtained from different variants of the Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk (CAViaR) model developed by Engle and Manganelli (2004) in the predictive model and compare its performance with that of an AR(1) benchmark model. We find strong evidence of risk spillovers between the two stock markets. We find contrasting evidence for the predictability of oil-market tail risk, with positive predictability in case of the net oil exporter and negative in case of the net oil importer. Further results using tail risks of other advanced economies (combined) support possible diversification potential for Canadian stocks in the presence of market risks of advanced economies other than the U.S. Our findings have implications for investors and are robust to various out-of-sample forecast horizons, alternative data frequencies, data splits, and 1% and 5% VaRs.     

The contagion effects of volatility indices across the U.S. and Europe

This research adopts an autoregressive conditional jump intensity (ARJI) model by utilizing intraday data of overlapping trading hours to analyze the global contagion effects of sentimental responses and volatility dynamics through the volatility indices of the U.S. and three major European countries. The results show strong evidence of contagion effects among the volatility indices. For regional effects, compared to the other two European indices (VFTSE and VCAC), the volatility index of Germany (VDAX) generates greater impacts on the other indices, and we also observe bi-directional causalities among these three countries. The findings support the meteor shower hypothesis among the sample countries. Additionally, jump innovations in Germany affect investor sentiments with the fastest convergence speed. Finally, the jump convergence speed in the UK is slower, and the impacts of unexpected news could also last longer for UK investors.     

The exchange rate and machinery and equipment imports: Identifying the impact of import source and export destination country currency valuation changes

This paper presents estimates of the impact of exchange rate movements on the quantity of machinery and equipment imports. Many countries have become increasingly reliant on imports of these types of products and evidence in a number of studies indicates that investment in machinery and equipment contributes to improved productivity and growth. Unlike previous studies, this study differentiates between exchange rate movements with respect to machinery and equipment import source and final good export destination countries. Data are employed for two machinery and equipment importing countries, Australia and Canada, and two exporting countries, Japan and the U.S. The results indicate that a currency depreciation with respect to an import source country has a significant negative effect on the quantity of machinery and equipment imports, while a depreciation with respect to a domestic final good export destination country has a significant positive effect. These findings imply that the net impact on the quantity of machinery and equipment imports of an exchange rate change with respect to a particular country will depend on the extent to which that country is a supplier of machinery and equipment imports and a market for domestic exports.     

The Introduction of the Euro and Derivative Use in French Firms

In January 1999 several European countries adopted a common currency, the “euro”. This important economic event provided an opportunity to examine the determinants of risk management in an environment where exposure to foreign exchange (FX) risk was considerably reduced. For a sample of French firms we found the decline in the use of FX derivatives was greater for firms with substantial sales within the euro zone and less for firms in industries that still had significant imports from outside the euro zone. The focus on derivatives adds to existing research, as it is a more explicit indicator of a reduction in the resources devoted to hedging. The reduction in hedging was not in direct proportion to the reduction in FX exposure, implying that euro risk was hedged more intensely than French franc risk in the sample of French firms over the chosen years.     

浅论新时期国内石油供需形势与发展战略

迅速增长的石油消费需求和国内原油产量的有限,使中国原油供应很大一部分要依靠进口,要想进一步确保中国能源供给尤其是石油安全,通常有三种发展战略可供选择:一是合理并有效利用国际石油资源,继续依赖进口的同时,到国外参与油田开发;二是加紧国内现有主力油田的二次和三次开发,利用现代各种石油开采技术,深层挖掘石油资源;三是加强国内小油田的开发,以缓解主力油田承受的巨大的产能压力。     

基于AHP的成品油配送物流项目风险的识别与评估

我国成品油配送的区域较大,配送的对象、品种、数量等较为复杂,在成品油配送物流环节存在各种风险,任何一个环节出现问题都会波及成品油配送的安全、准确、及时性。文章分析了我国成品油配送物流的风险来源．构建了成品油配送风险评价指标体系,把成品油配送环节上的风险因素划分为定量因素和模糊因素．采用模糊层次分析法对成品油配送风险进行评估及分析,并进行综合评价。     

The path to renewable energy consumption in the European Union through drivers and barriers: A panel vector autoregressive approach

Renewable energy consumption brings sustainable economic growth and pollution reduction. Despite the worldwide increase in renewable energy consumption, global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are rising and there are still considerable differences in the share of renewable energy consumption in national energy portfolios. These concerns require further effort at the policy level, especially by countries that make extensive use of energy imports. These countries could improve their lack of energy independence by using renewable energy sources and leveraging a few factors to facilitate their transition. This study aims to investigate renewable energy consumption drivers, focusing on the role of socio-technical (rather than economic) aspects such as policy stringency, lobbying, public awareness, and education. We employ a panel vector autoregressive model in first differences to test the complex dynamic relationships among renewable energy consumption, policy stringency, lobbying, public awareness, and education, controlling for variables such as per capita income and import levels, for 12 European Union net energy importing countries. Results show that the positive income effect prevails in the influence of the level of carbon dioxide emissions (negative) on renewable energy consumption, despite the latter being more significant in countries with higher levels of education. Increasing energy needs push traditional sources towards complementarity with renewable energy consumption, implying a positive lobbying effect. Public awareness is not enough to facilitate the transition to renewable energy consumption. By contrast, policy stringency has positive direct and indirect effects on renewable energy consumption, suggesting that the approach adopted by the European Commission in the recent Green Deal is a step in the right direction. Moreover, as shown, policymakers are able, through renewable energy consumption, to generate a decrease in carbon dioxide emissions and electricity production from oil, gas, coal, and nuclear sources in the first instance, but also in net energy imports, even if at a later stage.     

Home bias and U.S. imports of processed food products

This article estimates the degree of home bias for U.S. imported food products using an Armington model (Armington, 1969), and then assesses some of its determinants. Empirical results indicate that a very strong bias toward domestic products significantly limits foreign imports of the same type of products, and that without home bias, imports would increase several-fold. The degree of home bias is found to be higher in industries with co-location of raw agricultural production, delivery of mostly finished rather than intermediate food products, protection by high non-tariff barriers, and importation from neighboring countries (Mexico and Canada).     

The currency denomination of external European Union imports after European Union expansion

Using a multiple market model I examine the impact of euro expansion on the optimal currency denomination of external EU imports. Results suggest euro invoicing will increase more in the EU-expansion country than in the original EU. Exporting firms from dollar bloc countries (the U.S. or countries with fixed exchange rates with the dollar) are more likely to invoice in the euro if price discrimination is already optimal. Firms from outside the dollar bloc are more likely to use the euro when the original EU market is relatively large or transaction costs of exchanging the euro are relatively small.     

International Leadership in Productivity at the Aggregate and Industry Level

Since many policies affect specific parts of economies differently, it is useful to decompose GDP per capita differences across countries into differences across smaller and smaller parts of economies. In this paper, we summarize recent contributions in this area and fit them together into a decomposition procedure for GDP per capita differences. The overall finding is that the U.S. is the productivity leader for the most of the economy. Moreover, international productivity differences at the aggregate level of the economies are in most cases translated into differences in the productivity of industries, at least compared to the productivity leader U.S. The variability of productivity differences at the industry level is, however, substantially higher than any differences at the aggregate or sector level. For the manufacturing sector alone the U.S. and Japan share the leadership on the industry level. In contrast, France, U.K., and Germany exhibit almost no leadership in productivity at the industry level. Hence, nation-specific factors appear to be dominant in the comparison of European countries with the U.S. Finally, mix differences do not play a very large role for big countries. For Germany, however, the mix effect can help to reconcile relative high productivity for the market economy and lower productivity at disaggregated levels.     

THE ECONOMIC EFFECT OF HIGHWAY CONSTRUCTION: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS FOR THE U.K., GERMANY AND JAPAN

This paper attempts to estimate the marginal productivity of highway construction in the U.K., Germany and Japan during the 15 years following the first oil crisis. In addition, highway-improvement policy in Japan is evaluated using a simple macro-economic regression model. The following conclusions were obtained: in every country the marginal productivity of highway construction decreased over the period 1975-85, with the decrease most pronounced in Japan; subsequently, it increased slowly in the U.K. and Germany, with Japan leveling off though still having the highest value among the three countries; the U.K. maintained a high level of highway productivity largely as a result of a high degree of utilization. There is scope in Japan for attaining a higher level (approximately equal to that of the late 1970s) if the extent of highway utilization can be maintained by additional construction. This implies that future highway-construction policy should be of efficiency-seeking nature.