The Foreign Exchange Exposure Management Practices of Finnish Industrial Firms

This study employs questionnaire survey and financial accounting data to extend earlier empirical work on the foreign exchange (FX) exposure management practices of Finnish industrial firms. The paper concentrates on: (i) the form that FX corporate hedging policy takes; (ii) the control of FX procedures and trading; and, (iii) our respondents' perceptions about their ability to predict FX rate changes for hedging decisions. Our results indicate that the extent to which firms hedge FX exposure depends on the type of exposure and the form that FX hedging policy takes. Also, a significant number of the firms pursue FX hedging strategies on the expectation of attaining trading profits and this strategy appears to be accommodated within their FX policies. This feature is not explicitly demonstrated in previous studies. Finnish firms hedge a much higher proportion of both transaction and translation exposures compared to economic exposure. We partly attribute this emphasis to the requirements of the Finnish Accounting Act, which came into effect in 1993. The organisational, historical and financial settings of the firms also have significant impacts on exposure management practices. The overall implication of those results is that firms respond to changes in the financial, economic and regulatory environments in which they operate.     

Quadratic hedging schemes for non-Gaussian GARCH models

We propose different schemes for option hedging when asset returns are modeled using a general class of GARCH models. More specifically, we implement local risk minimization and a minimum variance hedge approximation based on an extended Girsanov principle that generalizes Duan׳s (1995) delta hedge. Since the minimal martingale measure fails to produce a probability measure in this setting, we construct local risk minimization hedging strategies with respect to a pricing kernel. These approaches are investigated in the context of non-Gaussian driven models. Furthermore, we analyze these methods for non-Gaussian GARCH diffusion limit processes and link them to the corresponding discrete time counterparts. A detailed numerical analysis based on S&P 500 European call options is provided to assess the empirical performance of the proposed schemes. We also test the sensitivity of the hedging strategies with respect to the risk neutral measure used by recomputing some of our results with an exponential affine pricing kernel.     

Cross-hedging minimum return guarantees: Basis and liquidity risks

We reveal pitfalls in the hedging of insurance contracts with a minimum return guarantee on the underlying investment, e.g. an external mutual fund. We analyze basis risk entailed by hedging the guarantee with a dynamic portfolio of proxy assets for the funds. We also take account of liquidity risk which arises since the insurer may need to advance funds for performing the hedge. Based on a least-squares Monte Carlo simulation, we study the economic implications of basis and liquidity risks. We demonstrate that both risks may be surprisingly high and show how the design of the contract and the hedging strategy may help to alleviate them.     

Hedging inflation with individual US stocks: A long-run portfolio analysis

This paper examines whether individual stocks can act as inflation hedgers. We focus on longer investment horizons and construct in- and out-of-sample portfolios based on the long-run relationship (cointegration) of stock prices with respect to consumer prices. Empirical evidence suggests that investors are better off by holding a portfolio of stocks with higher long-run betas as part of asset selection and allocation strategy. Stocks that outperform inflation tend to be drawn from the Energy and Industrial sectors. Finally, we observe that the companies average inflation hedging ability declined steadily over the past ten years, while the number of firms that hedge inflation has decreased considerably after the recent downturn of the US economy.     

Pure jump models for pricing and hedging VIX derivatives

Recent non-parametric statistical analysis of high-frequency VIX data (Todorov and Tauchen, 2011) reveals that VIX dynamics is a pure jump semimartingale with infinite jump activity and infinite variation. To our best knowledge, existing models in the literature for pricing and hedging VIX derivatives do not have these features. This paper fills this gap by developing a novel class of parsimonious pure jump models with such features for VIX based on the additive time change technique proposed in Li et al., 2016a, Li et al., 2016b. We time change the 3/2 diffusion by a class of additive subordinators with infinite activity, yielding pure jump Markov semimartingales with infinite activity and infinite variation. These processes have time and state dependent jumps that are mean reverting and are able to capture stylized features of VIX. Our models take the initial term structure of VIX futures as input and are analytically tractable for pricing VIX futures and European options via eigenfunction expansions. Through calibration exercises, we show that our model is able to achieve excellent fit for the VIX implied volatility surface which typically exhibits very steep skews. Comparison to two other models in terms of calibration reveals that our model performs better both in-sample and out-of-sample. We explain the ability of our model to fit the volatility surface by evaluating the matching of moments implied from market VIX option prices. To hedge VIX options, we develop a dynamic strategy which minimizes instantaneous jump risk at each rebalancing time while controlling transaction cost. Its effectiveness is demonstrated through a simulation study on hedging Bermudan style VIX options.     

The Use of Forward Contracts for Hedging Currency Risk

This paper derives an optimal rule for hedging currency risk in a general utility framework. Ex ante hedging performance of the forward markets is examined using the optimal hedge ratio derived from the utility model and an optimal rule derived from another model (excess return per unit risk) suggested in the hedging literature. Results of this study indicate a naive (one-to-one) hedge performs similarly to the optimal hedge ratios under either model. An implication of this study is that financial managers of multinational firms should simply follow a one-to-one rule when hedging foreign exchange risk in the forward markets.     

Discounting inflation — a note

The aim of this paper is to clarify the confused issue of the effect of inflation on the discounting procedure for investment appraisal. The standard approach is considered, together with the impact of inflation, and the problem of how to adjust the standard approach to take account of inflation. The point is made that it is usually easiest to estimate expected returns in current prices, in which case the discount rate should reflect the real opportunity cost of capital, to avoid mixing real returns and nominal interest in a manner which leads to the rejection of worthwhile projects. An example is given of how the real rate of interest can be computed from the nominal rate of interest and the rate of inflation, and the difference this makes to discounting a sample project. The paper then illustrates how real rates of interest have frequently been negative over the past decade and how this implies that projects may be acceptable even if the sum of future undiscounted returns is less than the initial outlay. The conclusion drawn is that investors should maximize economic profit defined as the surplus over opportunity cost, which reduces the deterrent of nominally high interest rates, for the maximization of surplus over opportunity cost has the corollary of minimization of opportunity loss.     

Is the nonlinear hedge of options more effective?—Evidence from the SSE 50 ETF options in China

The linear hedging of the options ignores the characteristic of the nonlinear change of option prices with the underlying asset. This paper establishes the nonlinear hedging strategy followed the study by Hull and White (2017) to investigate the effectiveness on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) 50 ETF options. The results show that the nonlinear hedge of the Chinese option market is less effective than the U.S option market because of the short history and the lower activity of the Chinese option market. The effect of nonlinear hedging strategy is better than the linear hedging strategy for calls in China. But for puts, the effect of the nonlinear hedging strategy is not as significant as it for calls. The difference in the trading volume between calls and puts and the high short-selling cost in the Chinese market are the main factors leading to the difference in hedge effectiveness. This paper suggests that the stock exchange could reduce margin standard of 50 ETF securities lending, promote a more flexible shorting mechanism, and accelerate the process of index options listed, so as to achieve hedging the risk of options more directly and efficiently.     

Interest rate risk in an emerging economy

The sharp decrease in inflation over the last decade—from 26% in 1990 to 4% in 2001—led the Central Bank of Chile to set its monetary policy interest rate in nominal terms since August 2001. This paper analyzes the effect of nominalization on the behavior of nominal, inflation-linked, and real interest rates, and its subsequent effects on the financial market. We find that nominalization has made nominal interest rates less volatile, while the opposite holds for inflation-linked interest rates. The effect on real interest rates is less unambiguous, but nominalization appears to have increased the cost of borrowing.     

On the choice between two delta-hedging strategies

This paper studies the choice between two popular hedging strategies by assuming that the hedge position (delta) follows a Markov chain with boundary conditions. We give the formula for long-run cost per unit time under two different cost structures: (I) a fixed transaction cost and (II) a non-fixed transaction cost. Then, we consider the case where the hedge position follows a random walk; we show that (i) re-balancing delta to the initial position is always more cost-efficient than re-balancing it to the edge for a fixed transaction cost; (ii) under certain conditions, re-balancing delta to the initial position is less cost-efficient than re-balancing it to the edge for a non-fixed transaction cost. In addition, we quantify the magnitude of the efficiency in both cases.     

The Introduction of the Euro and Derivative Use in French Firms

In January 1999 several European countries adopted a common currency, the “euro”. This important economic event provided an opportunity to examine the determinants of risk management in an environment where exposure to foreign exchange (FX) risk was considerably reduced. For a sample of French firms we found the decline in the use of FX derivatives was greater for firms with substantial sales within the euro zone and less for firms in industries that still had significant imports from outside the euro zone. The focus on derivatives adds to existing research, as it is a more explicit indicator of a reduction in the resources devoted to hedging. The reduction in hedging was not in direct proportion to the reduction in FX exposure, implying that euro risk was hedged more intensely than French franc risk in the sample of French firms over the chosen years.     

存在交易成本的权证避险策略实证研究

权证发行人在存在交易成本时对冲风险,若按照B—S理论进行动态连续避险操作,将造成巨大的交易成本,致使B-S动态连续避险不可行。因此存在交易成本时,对避险的操作都采用间断性避险。本文在统一均值方差框架下,系统全面的比较了存在交易成本的五种避险策略。在比例交易成本情形下,Whalley—Wilmott避险策略优于其他所有策略,当避险误差的标准差相同时该策略的交易成本最小;其次分别是delta固定避险带避险策略,基于标的资产价格变化的避险策略,Leland避险模型和间断的B—S避险策略。随着波动率σ上升,无风险利率γ下降,基于变动的避险策略相对于基于时间的策略优势更大。     

投资房地产可以对冲通货膨胀风险吗——以中国内地为例

本文基于费雪效应,考察了中国内地过去20余年间通货膨胀率与房地产收益率的同期关系、长期均衡关系,以及在不同收益率条件分布下二者的关系。结果表明,短期内投资房地产不能对冲通货膨胀,但从长期来看,投资房地产却是对冲通货膨胀的有效工具。然而在房地产收益率处于"极端"情形下,盲目投资房地产不但不会抵御通货膨胀风险,还会带来更大的损失。     

Interest rate derivatives and risk exposure: Evidence from the life insurance industry

Our primary aim in this study is to determine the relation that exists between the use of interest rate derivatives by public-traded life insurance firms and their exposure to interest rate risk. Based upon the annual reports and 10-K filings of US life insurers, covering the years 2000–2016, we find that those insurers with greater inherent exposure to interest rate risk also have a propensity for extensive engagement in the use of interest rate derivatives. We further reveal that life insurers with a propensity for the extensive use of such instruments during the 2000–2009 sub-period tend to have greater observable exposure to interest rate risk. However, during the 2010–2016 sub-period life insurers that use more interest rate derivatives tend to have smaller interest rate exposure. Since restructuring the balance sheet of a life insurer is costly, our results suggest that managers probably use derivatives as a means of modifying their risk tolerance to achieve the same results of direct duration matching.     

Hedging with the Nikkei index futures: The convential model versus the error correction model

This study estimates and compares the hedge ratios of the conventional and the error correction models using Japan's Nikkei Stock Average (NSA) index and the NSA index futures with different time intervals. Comparisons of out-of-sample hedging performance reveal that the error correction model outperforms the conventional model, suggesting that the hedge ratios obtained by using the error correction model do a better job in reducing the risk of the cash position than those from the conventional model. In addition, this paper evaluates the effects of temporal aggregation on hedge ratios. It is found that temporal aggregation has important effects on the hedge ratio estimates.     

Cash Position, Credit Risk and Hedging

In choosing between forward and spot hedging, cash constrained and/or high credit risk firms are more likely to hedge foreign currency transactions forward than firms of greater quality. This arises because the cost of the levered component of a spot hedge is greater than the cost of the unlevered component and this premium increases with higher credit risk. For given cash and credit characteristics, importers are more (less) likely to hedge forward than exporters if transactions costs in the home security market are less (more) than the corresponding costs in the foreign security market.     

危机后发达国家的非传统货币政策研究

次贷危机爆发以后,各国纷纷实行非传统的货币政策来刺激经济。自2009年下半年以来,随着一些国家的经济状况开始恢复,人们开始担心通货膨胀的出现,因此研究非传统货币政策何时退出就成为当前各国宏观经济保持稳定的一个重要任务。发达国家实行非传统货币政策的原因在于传统的货币政策传导机制,即从市场基准利率向短期利率和长期利率的传导受阻。因此非传统货币政策实施的目的在于降低短期利率预期和风险溢价,同时提高通胀预期,降低长期实际利率,最终起到刺激实体经济的作用。文章以美国为例,考察了美国金融指标、通胀指标和宏观经济指标,得出结论:传统的货币政策传导机制的恢复还未得到充分的确认。另外,由于欧洲债务危机的出现给全球经济复苏蒙上阴影,因此全面退出非传统货币政策尚不具备条件。但是在全球化时代,寻求大国之间退出策略的合作和协调是十分必要的。     

Hedging Foreign Project Risk

We study the firm's hedging problem when there is uncertainty about whether its bid on a foreign project will be accepted. Most treatments of this problem suggest that foreign currency options are the preferred hedging instrument. However, we show that when the uncertainty pertaining to the realization of the foreign cash flow is unrelated to the exchange rate, which typically will be the case, futures dominate options as hedge vehicles.
Conversely, options hedging will be appropriate when the viability of the foreign project depends also on an exchange-rate contingency, as would be the case when the bidding firm can withdraw its bid if the foreign currency depreciates sufficiently.
In many cases, both futures and options will form part of the best hedge position. The general principle in forming the hedge is that futures will best offset exchange-rate exposure the existence of which is not exchange-rate contingent. Options will best hedge any costs or revenues that might occur in a foreign currency depending on the outcome of an exchange-rate contingency.     

Hidden risks of hedge accounting in financial institutions: A study of Franklin Savings Association

The hedge accounting standards for financial institutions stipulated in SFAS No. 80 impose ambiguous guidelines whose enforcement can produce detrimental effects on the financial condition of institutions. Combining these standards with the interpretive authority of regulatory agencies can subject institutions to regulatory risk-the risk of an adverse regulatory ruling resulting from disparate interpretations of the accounting standards. The accounting regulations specified in SFAS No. 80 permit financial institutions to defer derivative-contract losses over the life of the underlying asset or liability. If the hedge designation is misused, however, the capital position of the institution may potentially be misstated prior to maturity of the derivative contracts. Further, when a hedging program goes awry, the current hedge accounting standards may actually encourage the shift to what is actually a speculation program by permitting a larger asset base on which to “earn back” a portion of the hedging losses. Thus, institutional programs initially designed to mitigate interest-rate risk can instead become risk-increasing, separate profit centers. Events leading to the RTC conservatorship of Franklin Savings Association are used to illustrate the opportunities and regulatory threats inherent in hedge accounting. Subsequent analysis indicates that similar ordeals could be avoided by a clarification of hedge accounting standards, the consistent application of standards by regulators, or by increasing capital requirements for those institutions that use derivatives as separate profit centers as opposed to hedging risk exposures.     

A note on output hedging with cost uncertainty

Using a general framework and a multiple‐input technology, we thoroughly investigate the hedging and production decisions under cost uncertainty. In doing so, we show the impact of the cost risk on the optimal output, hedge and hedge ratio. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.