浅析企业利用金融衍生工具管理外汇风险

2012年4月16日起,人民币兑美元汇率波动幅度由千分之五扩大至百分之一;未来一段时期人民币兑美元双向波动态势将进一步增强,企业所面临的外汇风险的管理难度将增大。如何增强外汇风险管理的能力已经成为每个企业的首要任务,而金融衍生工具的使用是企业规避外汇风险、加强外汇风险管理的重要方法之一。本文通过分析企业利用金融衍生工具管理外汇风险存在的问题,探究其原因,最后提出解决问题的方法。     

Evaluating factor forecasts for the UK: The role of asset prices

This paper applies a large data set, consisting of 167 monthly time series for the UK, both economic and financial, to simulate out-of-sample predictions of industrial production, inflation, 3-month Treasury Bills, and other variables. Fifteen dynamic factor models that allow forecasting based on large panels of time series are considered. The performances of these factor models are then compared to the following competing models: a simple univariate autoregressive, a vector autoregressive, a leading indicator, and a Phillips curve models. The results show that the best dynamic factor models outperform the competing models in forecasting at 6-, 12-, and 24-month horizons. Thus, the financial markets may have predictive power for the economic activity. This can be a useful tool for central banks and financial institutions, which may use the factor models to construct leading indicators of the economic conditions. In addition, researchers can see a strategic application of factor models.     

Assessing the effects of U.S. shocks on the Canadian economy using alternative identification methods

This paper investigates the extent of the transmission of U.S. supply and demand shocks to the Canadian economy using three different identification methods. Our findings are robust across identifications. We show that over the flexible exchange rate period, U.S. shocks tend to intensify Canadian business cycles, while they reduce the mean of Canadian prices and inflation. We also find that overall Canadian output is less sensitive to U.S. disturbances than found in earlier studies. Moreover, when the structural shocks are allowed to be correlated across countries, Canadian shocks explain around 18% of U.S. real GDP growth long run forecast error variance.     

How should monetary policy respond to changes in the relative price of oil? Considering supply and demand shocks

This paper examines optimal monetary policy in a New Keynesian model where supply and demand shocks affect the price of oil. Optimal policy fully stabilizes core inflation when wages are flexible. The nominal rate rises (falls) in response to the demand (supply) shock. With sticky wages core inflation falls (rises) in response to the demand (supply) shock. Impulse response functions from a VAR estimated with post-1986 U.S. data show minimal movement in core inflation in response to both shocks. The federal funds rate rises (falls) in response to the demand (supply) shock, consistent with the predictions from the theoretical model for policy that stabilizes core inflation.     

Corporate Hedging, Stakeholderinteresse und Shareholder Value

Zusammenfassung Hedging von Unternehmensrisiken (,,Corporate Hedging“) wird in Zeiten von zunehmender Internationalisierung und volatileren Märkten vielfach als eine Grundaufgabe moderner Unternehmenssteuerung angesehen. Dabei wird Hedging meistens aus der Generalprämisse risikoaverser Wirtschaftssubjekte oder einem natürlichen Schutzbedürfnis ungenügend diversifizierter Stakeholder, seltener aus Sicht der Shareholder heraus begründet. Andererseits werden wohldiversifizierte und risikofreudige Shareholder eher gegen Hedging optieren. Der Beitrag problematisiert diesen im Schrifttum wenig beachteten Widerspruch, nimmt eine Klassifizierung verbreiteter Hedgingmodelle vor und geht insbesondere auf deren Eignung zur Erklärung von Hedging im Shareholder Value-Kontext ein. In der Literatur wird ein Hedgingmotiv von Shareholdern verbreitet aus exogenen Friktionen – wie bspw. der Vermeidung von Insolvenzkosten – abgeleitet und dabei auf plausibilistische Risikomaße, wie etwa die Ausfallwahrscheinlichkeit zurückgegriffen. Der Beitrag nimmt hier eine entscheidungstheoretische Identifikation des kontextadäquaten Risikomaßes nach Rothschild und Stiglitz vor und rekapituliert auf dieser Basis die verschiedenen Literaturauffassungen zum Hedging im Shareholder Value-Kontext. Dabei erweisen sich die dort genannten Hedgingfunktionen als wenig tragfähig; nach Einbeziehung der Stakeholderposition kann über Hedging nicht mehr isoliert unter Risikogesichtspunkten, sondern muss im Lichte von Risk-Return-Trade-offs diskutiert werden. JEL classifications D81, G32     

物流金融活动的风险管理

由于物流金融业务参与者投资的性质不同,其风险管理措施也有所不同。其措施是:运用MONTE CARLO模拟计算市场风险敞口的VAR并结合压力测试,分配物流金融业务所占资金比率及其每个领域的资金比例;运用信用风险模型分析风险敞口面临的潜在损失;通过改善物流金融业务参与者的业务流程、管理水平及定期和不定期内部检查等措施,降低操作风险带来的损失;通过控制不同信用等级的交易对家的不同资金配额、贷款及还款要求和衍生品交易限制等措施,降低因流动性风险产生的经济损失。     

Who speaks louder,financial instruments or credit rating agencies? Analyzing the effects of different sovereign risk measures on interest rates in Brazil

Analyzing sovereign risk measures for Brazil, we observe that credit rating agencies are more cautious and conservative than the market to report risk rating improvements, and more rigorous in assigning better risk ratings. In turn, evidence suggest interest rates reflect sovereign risk conditions. However, to date, no study has assessed which measure of sovereign risk has the greatest impact on the yield curve. Using data from March 2004 to August 2019, we investigate whether interest rates respond differently to different sovereign risk measures in Brazil. As a novelty, the results indicate that credit rating agencies “speak louder” in affecting interest rates, i.e., they proved to have greater capacity to affect the yield curve. Therefore, the importance of these agencies is not limited only for financial markets, but also for policymakers, as the slope of the yield curve acts as a leading indicator of the business cycle.     

ARE EMPIRICAL MEASURES OF MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY ALIKE?

Abstract There is a plethora of time series measures of uncertainty for inflation and real output growth in empirical studies but little is known whether they are comparable to the uncertainty measure reported by individual forecasters in the survey of professional forecasters. Are these two measures of uncertainty inherently distinct? This paper shows that, compared with many uncertainty proxies produced by time series models, the use of real‐time data with fixed‐sample recursive estimation of an asymmetric bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model yields inflation uncertainty estimates which resemble the survey measure. There is, however, overwhelming evidence that many of the time series measures of growth uncertainty exceed the level of uncertainty obtained from survey measure. Our results highlight the relative merits of using different methods in modelling macroeconomic uncertainty which are useful for empirical researchers.     

风险测量VAR及其原理

用公式可表示为:Prob(△P>VAR}=1-a(其中Prob表示:资产价值损失小于可能损失上限的概率;△P表示:某一金融资产在一定持有期△t的价值失额;VAR表示:给定置信水平a下的在险价值,即可能的损失上限;a表示:给定的置信水平。)